USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US PCE came
  in line with expectations.
• The US Jobless Claims missed
  expectations although the data is still in the recent ranges.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged dropping
  the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive
  level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in January remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD has sold
off aggressively following the RBNZ rate decision last week where it kept rates
unchanged and dropped the tightening bias. The price is now consolidating
around the key support zone.
This is where the buyers should step in with a defined risk below the support
to position for a rally back into the 0.6219 level. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets
into the next support at 0.5870.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the consolidation
between the key support zone and the 0.6112 resistance. We can also notice that
we have a divergence with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, if the price were to break to the upside the reversal
would be confirmed, and the buyers would pile in more aggressively to extend
the rally into the highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on
the resistance to position for a break below the support with a great risk to
reward setup.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent rangebound price action. There’s not much else to do here
other than waiting for the key breakouts and go with the flow. Watch out for
the data and the Fed Chair Powell today.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US ADP, the US Job Openings and
the Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The decisions taken in China reflected limited changes to its main targets as they were largely in line with expectations.

China estimates that its GDP for this year will grow around 5%, while the inflation target will be around 3%. The targeted deficit is 3% of GDP and the jobless rate should be 5.5%. According to Bloomberg, China aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs.

Overall those targets are optimistic and analysts argue they won’t be easy to achieve.

The top priorities remain tech innovation and upgrading certain industries, with some examples being hydrogen power, new materials, drug research and production, commercial aviation and more. As a market reaction Chinese stocks in Hong Kong dropped as investors remain sceptical of the government’s growth target.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday,
the Nasdaq Composite retreated a bit after the strong rally following the miss
in the ISM
Manufacturing PMI last Friday. There might be some profit taking
going on as we finally made a new all-time high and we have lots of risk events
ahead with the US labour market data and Fed Chair Powell testifying to
Congress. The path of least resistance remains to the upside until we either
see growth deteriorating or the economic data makes the market to expect the
Fed to make a U-turn on rate cuts.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite extended the rally into a new all-time high last Friday. The price
started to retreat yesterday as the sellers stepped in with a defined risk
above the high to position for a drop into the key trendline
targeting a break below it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to wait
for the price to reach the trendline to position for a rally into new highs
with a better risk to reward setup.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The pullbacks in this case resolved all into the
trendline, so we can expect the price to do the same in the next few days. We
can also notice that we might have formed a rising wedge, so it
will be important for the buyers to avoid a break below the bottom trendline because
it could trigger a selloff into the base of the wedge at 14477.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have now a resistance turned
support around the 16130 level where we have also the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level and the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
buyers might want to split their position in half between the support and the
trendline as the price can bounce on either level before continuing higher. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
bottom trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets
into new lows.

Upcoming
Events

This week we have lots of important events on the agenda
with the release of the US labour market data and the Fed Chair Powell
testifying to Congress. We begin today with the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow,
we have the US ADP, the US Job Openings and the Fed Chair Powell speaking. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Why gold prices are gleaming brighter lately 🌟

It seems the the crypto boyz are mooning crypto meme coins, the Nasdaq is making another all time high every month, Nvidia and other AI stocks are faking out the bears again, and rallying… again. So why the heck is gold rising, too?

In an intriguing twist of financial markets this past week, gold prices have not just inched but leaped forward, drawing attention from investors and traders worldwide. This movement is far from arbitrary; it’s rooted in a tapestry of factors that together weave a compelling narrative for gold’s current allure. Let’s break down the key drivers behind this golden rally:

1. Fed’s interest rate dance 💃: The whispers of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have set the stage. With the U.S. economic indicators not performing their best dance moves, speculation is rife about a softer monetary policy stance. In this ballet of finance, gold shines when the interest rates dip, offering a spotlight performance as yields on traditional investments dim.

2. A safe haven in stormy weather 🌩️: Amid the geopolitical thunderstorms, from ongoing conflicts to broader uncertainties, gold stands as a steadfast shelter. Its reputation as a sanctuary asset is reinforced, attracting investors seeking calm within the storm.

3. Central banks‘ gold rush 🏦: A notable narrative is the robust buying spree by central banks, particularly in Asia. This strategic accumulation reflects a quest for financial security and diversification, bolstering gold’s demand and price.

4. India’s season of gold 💍: The narrative takes a cultural twist with India’s peak wedding season on the horizon. Gold, revered for its auspiciousness in celebrations and traditions, sees a spike in demand, particularly in jewelry, adding another layer of demand-induced price support.

5. Balancing crypto risky volatility with gold’s preceived stability ⚖️: In the digital realm, the crypto markets continue their wild ride, marked by volatility and regulatory crosshairs. This uncertainty casts gold in a pivotal role as a hedge, offering a counterbalance to the high-risk, high-reward nature of cryptocurrencies. Investors, navigating the tumultuous seas of digital assets, increasingly view gold as an anchor, tempering the speculative waves with its enduring value.

The golden path forward 🛤️

Follow ForexLive.com to help you navigate and understand the markets. Always invest and trade at your own risk. 🚀🌐💡

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.8%.

Eurozone PPI m/m prints below expectations at -0.9% vs -0.1%.

Eurozone PPI y/y prints at -8.6% vs -8.1% expected, prior -10.6%.

The biggest drop was in the energy component which decreased by 2.9% for the euro area and by 2.5% for the EU as a whole.

More information here.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 54.3.

U.K. Final Services PMI prints below expectations at 53.8 vs 54.3.

UK Composite PMI Final prints at 53 lower than forecast 53.3, prior 53.3.

U.K. service providers saw an improvement in business activity in February fueled by growth in new orders and a slight rise in employment numbers.

While the index printed slightly below expectations at 53.8, it’s still higher than it was at any point during the second half of last year. The expansionary territory above 50.0 shows there has been a rebound in business activity after last autumn’s downturn.

The GBP/USD saw a modest reaction.

More information here.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

US natural gas prices up higher by nearly 6% today after EQT announced a 1 Bcf curtailment from late-February through March. Henry hub prices are up 10.7 cents to $1.942, the highest in nearly a month.

EQT said the move was „in response to the current low natural gas price environment resulting from warm winter weather and consequent elevated storage inventories.“

Two weeks ago Chesapeake Energy helped to turn the natural gas market by announcing it would lower capex and reduce 2024 production by around 0.8 Bcf.

EQT’s move is shorter term:

The Company expects to maintain this curtailment through the month of March and will reassess market conditions thereafter.

US natural gas storage levels are extremely high due to a mild winter.

In the oil market, Occidental announced it was trimming Permian spending by $320 million and idling two rigs.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The conjecture here is that a Russian bomb has either deliberately or accidentally landed in Poland. There has been some light selling in risk assets on this.

Update: Polish police now say it was a weather balloon.

Meanwhile Medvedev is on Russian TV saying „Ukraine is certainly Russia“ with this map shown in the background.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Last
Friday, the Dow Jones broke a key resistance zone despite a much weaker than
expected ISM
Manufacturing PMI. The market probably took it as good news because
it reduces the chances of the Fed eventually being forced to resume tightening.
In fact, the US Dollar and the Treasury yields fell across the board giving the
stock market a boost. The path of least resistance remains to the upside until
we start to see a deterioration in growth or the labour market cracks.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
price action has formed a rising wedge with the
price diverging with the
MACD. This is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the pullbacks should resolve around the bottom trendline where we
can expect the buyers to step in to target new highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm the reversal and
target the 37128 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price recently bounced on the red 21 moving average as the
buyers leant on the moving average to position for a rally into new highs. If
the price fails to sustain the bullish momentum and falls into the trendline,
the buyers will find the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level for extra confluence. A
break below the bottom trendline though would invalidate the bullish setup and
likely trigger a selloff into the 37128 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price broke through the resistance zone
around the 39000 level last Friday. This is where we can expect the buyers to
step in on a retest as they will also find the red 21 moving average for
confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
lower to position for a drop into the bottom trendline and target a break below
it with a better risk to reward setup.

Upcoming Events

This week we have lots of important events on the agenda
with the release of the US labour market data and the Fed Chair Powell
testifying to Congress. We begin tomorrow with the US ISM Services PMI. On
Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Job Openings and the Fed Chair Powell
speaking. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on
Friday we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P 500 rose 41 points to a record 5137 on Friday but it has given some back in the pre-market. Futures are down 6 points with Nasdaq futures similarly down 0.1%.

“The recent rally has driven the share of market cap in stocks with extremely high valuations to levels similar to those reached during the euphoria of 2021,” wrote Goldman Sachs equity strategists. “But the prevalence of extreme valuations today looks far less widespread than in 2021 after adjusting for market concentration.”

The S&P 500 has risen 25% since late-October as the market enthusiastically embraces AI. In addition, a Fed put is in play. If the economy stay strong, then the market can cheer on a strong economy. If the economy softens, the Fed will cut rates. On Friday a trio of soft economic data releases — ISM manufacturing, construction spending and UMich consumer sentiment — led to a rate-cut inspired rally.

This week the stakes are higher with ISM services data, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and two days of Powell testimony.

Here’s a chart from Goldman that suggests a FOMO rally could kick off at any time.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.