Last
Friday, the Dow Jones pulled back a bit after reaching a new all-time high
following the Nvidia induced rally across different stock markets. On the
economic data side, we got another slate of strong data last Thursday with the US
Jobless Claims and US PMIs beating
expectations. The Fed members continue to repeat that they want to see a couple
more of inflation reports before deciding on rate cuts, but they keep on
reiterating that cuts are coming this year. Overall, the path of least
resistance remains to the upside.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
extended the rally into a new all-time high last week. We can also notice that
the price reacted to the top trendline of what
now looks like a rising wedge.
Moreover, the price continues to diverge with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should be a signal for a pullback into the bottom
trendline where the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see even
better the rising wedge formation and the divergence with the MACD. We can also
notice that we have the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level around the bottom trendline for
extra confluence.
That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into another all-time high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the
bullish setup and position for a drop into the 38033 level first and upon a
further break lower, the 37128 level next.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have
another interesting support zone
around the 38900 level where we can find the confluence of the previous resistance now
turned support, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The buyers might want to split their orders as
the price could bounce either from the 38900 support or the bottom trendline.

Upcoming Events

This week we have some important economic data on the
agenda. We begin tomorrow with the release of the US Consumer Confidence
report. On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing
PMI.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Saying ahead
of the curve is paramount, especially when it comes to attending the latest
trading expos in 2024. These events serve as invaluable platforms for
professionals looking to enhance their knowledge, network with industry
experts, and explore the latest innovations. In 2024, amidst digital
advancements and market fluctuations, attending these expos is even more
crucial for both seasoned brokers and aspiring traders alike.

Why
Attend Trading Expos

Trading
expos provide a unique opportunity for individuals to immerse themselves in the
latest trends, technologies, and strategies shaping the financial services
landscape. For brokers, these events offer a chance to gain insights into
emerging markets, regulatory changes, and cutting-edge trading platforms.

Traders, on
the other hand, can benefit from educational seminars, live demonstrations, and
one-on-one interactions with leading industry figures.

Current
Trends in Online Trading Industry

The online
trading industry is constantly evolving, driven by technological advancements,
regulatory reforms, and shifting investor preferences. In 2024, this includes strides
in algorithmic (algo) trading, fueled by the proliferation of artificial
intelligence and machine learning algorithms.

Furthermore,
the rise of cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) introduces new
avenues for investment and speculation, reshaping traditional trading
paradigms.

Top
Trading Expos to Attend in 2024

iFX EXPO LATAM – Mexico City, Mexico: April 9-11

iFX EXPO LATAM is a B2B and B2C conference that
explores one of the most dynamic and untapped marketplaces globally. Join the
industry’s leading brokers, affiliates, hedge funds and fintechs along with
thousands of traders – all under one roof.

Global
Trade Finance Expo – Dubai, UAE: May 9-10

The Global Trade Finance Expo offers an
opportunity to engage with senior decision-makers in global trade and
investment – from banks, traders, exporters, corporates, underwriters, Export
Credit Agencies (ECAs) & Development Finance Institutions (DFIs).

FMAS:24 –
Sandton City, South Africa: May 20-22

Finance
Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) is a premier destination for individuals
and businesses interested in online trading, fintech, crypto, digital assets,
and payments. This summit is the perfect blend of local expertise and global
insights, providing a dynamic platform for both B2C and B2B audiences to
network, learn, and forge meaningful connections.

The Money
Show – Toronto, Canada: September 13-14

The
MoneyShow Toronto is a signature Canadian financial conference that provides
attendees with the tools, tactics, guidance, strategies, and recommendations to
better grow and protect your wealth in 2024 and beyond.

Taking
Advantage of Networking at Trading Expos

Networking
lies at the heart of trading expos, offering participants a chance to forge
valuable connections and collaborations. Whether it’s striking up a
conversation with a keynote speaker, exchanging ideas with fellow traders, or
exploring partnership opportunities with industry vendors, the networking
opportunities at these events are limitless.

By building
a robust network, professionals can gain access to insider insights,
mentorship, and potential career opportunities.

Conclusion

Attending
online trading expos in 2024 is essential for professionals seeking to stay
abreast of industry developments, expand their networks, and sharpen their
trading acumen.

By
leveraging the wealth of resources and opportunities offered by these events,
individuals can position themselves for success in an ever-evolving financial
landscape.

FAQ

How
to Choose the Right Trading Expo to Attend in 2024?

With a
plethora of trading expos to choose from, selecting the right one can be a
daunting task. To make an informed decision, consider factors such as the
event’s agenda, keynote speakers, exhibitors, and networking opportunities.

Additionally,
assess your own learning objectives and areas of interest to ensure that the
expo aligns with your professional goals. Conduct thorough research, read
reviews from past attendees, and leverage social media platforms to gauge the
reputation and relevance of the event.

What
Should I Prepare Before Attending a Trading Expo?

Preparation
is key to maximizing your experience at a trading expo. Start by familiarizing
yourself with the event schedule and identifying sessions or workshops that
align with your interests. Prepare questions to ask speakers or exhibitors, and
bring along essential items such as business cards, notepads, and chargers.

Dress
appropriately, as first impressions matter in networking settings. Finally,
maintain an open mind and be ready to engage with peers, speakers, and vendors
to make the most of your time at the expo.

Why
are Trading Expos Important?

Trading
expos play a pivotal role in the professional development of individuals in the
finance industry. These events offer a platform for education, networking, and
discovery, enabling participants to stay ahead of market trends, expand their
professional networks, and explore new opportunities.

By attending
trading expos, professionals can gain valuable insights, forge meaningful
connections, and position themselves for success in an increasingly competitive
landscape.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Tuesday: Japan
  CPI, US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday:
  Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q4 GDP 2nd
  Estimate.
• Thursday: Japan
  Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, Switzerland
  Q4 GDP, Canada GDP, US PCE, US Jobless Claims.
• Friday: Japan
  Unemployment Rate, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, Eurozone CPI
  and Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday

The Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at
1.8% vs. 2.3% prior while there’s no consensus on the other measures although
the prior Headline CPI Y/Y printed at 2.6% and the Core-Core CPI Y/Y came at
3.7%. The Tokyo
CPI, which is seen as a
leading indicator for national inflation, surprised recently falling much more
than expected with almost all the measures dropping below the BoJ’s 2% target.
Even if the BoJ decides to exit the NIRP, it looks like it’s going to be just a
one and done.

The US Consumer Confidence has been rising
in the past couple of months. The present situation index increased
substantially the last
time, which might have been a hint for
the strong January NFP report released a week later. In fact, compared to the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the consumers
see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the consumers
see the labour market.
The consensus sees the index remaining unchanged at 114.8 in February.

Wednesday

The Australian Monthly CPI Y/Y is expected
at 3.5% vs. 3.4% prior. The RBA focuses more on the quarterly CPI readings,
but the monthly indicator is timelier and can be a guide for the trend, especially
at turning points. The Core measures will be more important but overall, this
report is unlikely to change much for the central bank.

The RBNZ is expected to keep the OCR
unchanged at 5.50%. There is a very slight chance of a hike with the ANZ bank
recently forecasting the central bank to raise rates to 6.00%. The data
though doesn’t call for such a move at the moment with the last GDP
reading surprisingly showing a strong contraction and the disinflationary
trend remaining intact. The unemployment
rate has also been rising steadily, so
there’s no real indication for a rate hike.

Thursday

The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs.
2.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core PCE
Y/Y is expected at 2.8% vs. 2.9% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.4%
vs. 0.2% prior. Forecasters can reliably estimate the PCE once the CPI and
PPI are out, so the market already knows what to expect. Therefore, we are
unlikely to see big reactions unless the data surprises on either side.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 201K prior,
while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing
although the last week’s data showed a decrease to 1862K vs. 1889K prior.

Friday

The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5%
vs. 2.8% prior, while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 2.9% vs. 3.3% prior. The
Core 3-month and 6-month annualised rates are already below the ECB’s 2%
target, but the central bank is adamant on its patience stance and some
members, including President Lagarde, stated that they want to see the Q1 2024
wage data before considering a rate cut. The market is fully pricing a 25 bps
rate cut in June and despite the ECB’s message, the market will likely price
back in an April cut if the data misses expectations.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected
at 49.5 vs. 49.1 prior. The expectations are skewed to the upside as the S&P
Global Manufacturing PMI showed another
increase in February to 51.5 vs. 50.7 in the prior month. The generally
commentary was upbeat as the sector is experiencing a rebound from the
recessionary phase in the last 2 years.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ technical analysis: Watch these price levels

In the dynamic world of stock trading, the NASDAQ Composite Index remains a focal point for investors and traders alike. With markets fluctuating based on a myriad of factors, understanding the technical landscape is crucial for those looking to navigate the waters of investment successfully. In this article, we distill the complex world of NASDAQ technical analysis into key insights, drawing on the expertise of Itai Levitan from ForexLive.com, to prepare you for the market opening this Monday.

Understanding the Current NASDAQ Landscape

• Ascending Wedge and Trading Range: Recent NASDAQ movements have showcased an ascending wedge, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. This pattern also represents a trading range, with prices oscillating within a defined area before the observed breakdown.
• Critical Price Movements
  • The market witnessed a significant retest, where prices attempted to re-enter the trading range, touching upon the previous all-time high of 18,121.5 before experiencing a sharp decline.
  • The week concluded with prices failing to re-enter the channel or test its upper boundaries, hinting at a bearish sentiment.

Key Technical Indicators and What They Signify

• The Importance of the Blue Line in the above Nasdaq technical analysis video: As long as prices remain below this crucial level, the bullish case loses its momentum, signaling caution among traders.
• Regression Channel and Range Identification: A closer look at the regression channel from a recent low suggests the presence of a trading range, providing insights into potential price movements.
• Anchored VWAP Analysis: Utilizing the anchored VWAP from a significant low offers a deeper understanding of buyer sentiment and potential support levels, marking the 17,450 – 17,460 zone as a critical area for observation.

Strategies and Expectations for Traders

• Bearish vs. Bullish Scenarios: The analysis suggests a shift towards a bearish perspective, with the failure to cross above the pivotal 18,050-18,100 zone. However, traders should also be prepared for potential bullish signals, should prices clear key resistance levels.
• The Role of the VWAP and Trend Lines: The VWAP acts as the lower boundary of the current trading range, with trend lines indicating the upper limits. This structure provides traders with a framework for assessing market direction and potential entry or exit points.

Conclusion and Trading Tips

Navigating the NASDAQ’s technical terrain requires a blend of analytical prowess and strategic foresight. By breaking down complex patterns into actionable insights, traders can approach the market with a clearer understanding and a strategic edge.

• Trade with Caution: Always be mindful of the inherent risks in trading, making decisions based on a comprehensive analysis and your risk tolerance.
• Stay Informed: For those looking to deepen their market knowledge, returning to reputable sources like ForexLive.com can offer additional perspectives and updates.

As we approach the upcoming trading week, keeping these technical analysis insights in mind can help traders align their strategies with the current market dynamics. Remember, success in the trading world is often a result of informed decision-making and strategic planning that you can find at ForexLive.com. Happy trading!

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Week Ahead 26th February – 1st March

• Mon: US New Home Sales (Jan), Dallas Fed (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan), UK Nationwide (Feb)
• Tue: US Democratic Primary – Michigan; German GfK (Mar), US Durable Goods (Jan), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Richmond Fed (Feb)
• Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement, Australian CPI (Jan), Swedish PPI (Jan), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Feb), US GDP 2nd/PCE Prices Prelim. (Q4), Japanese Retail Sales (Jan)
• Thu: Australian Retail Sales (Jan), US PCE (Jan), Canadian GDP (Q4)
• Fri: Chinese NBS PMIs (Feb), EZ CPI (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb).

Note: Previews are listed in day order

Japan CPI (Mon):

National Core CPI is seen easing to 1.8% Y/Y in January from 2.3% in December, with base effects being one factor of the expected cooling. Using Tokyo CPI for January as a proxy, the data showed a notable slowdown, surprising market expectations with a decrease to 1.6% Y/Y (exp. 2.0%, prev. 2.4%). The downturn marked the first time since March 2022 that inflation in Tokyo has dipped below 2.0%, significantly cooling from the same period last year, when it reached a peak of 4.4%. The 0.8ppts decline in the headline inflation rate was primarily driven by a slowdown in food and services inflation, which contributed to just over 70% of the decrease, while a fall in energy prices continued to exert downward pressure. Core Tokyo CPI also printed sub-forecasts at 1.6% Y/Y (exp. 1.9%, prev. 2.1%).

RBNZ Announcement (Wed):

The RBNZ will likely keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at the current level of 5.50% with money markets pricing around a 70% chance for no change in rates and about a 30% probability for a 25bps hike, while a Reuters survey showed 27 out of 28 economists forecast rates to maintained at the current level and just one called for a 25bps hike. Nonetheless, a rate increase cannot be ruled out with the meeting seen as potentially live after the central bank’s hawkish signal at the last meeting and ANZ Bank also recently forecasted the RBNZ to deliver back-to-back hikes through to April to lift the OCR to 6.00%. As a reminder, the RBNZ kept rates unchanged as unanimously forecast during the last meeting in November although its language was hawkish as it stated that inflation remains too high and the committee remains wary of ongoing inflationary pressures, as well as noted that if inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further. In addition, the central bank’s OCR projections were lifted to suggest risks of a further hike with the OCR view for March 2024 raised to 5.63% from 5.58% and the view for December 2024 lifted to 5.66% from 5.50%, while it also raised the March 2025 OCR forecast to 5.56% from 5.36%. Furthermore, Governor Orr stated that risks to inflation are still more to the upside and they did discuss raising rates at that meeting but also stated they’ve been adamant on holding rates and that their projection shows an upward bias to rates but it is not a done deal. The central bank’s rhetoric since then has continued to toe the hawkish line with Governor Orr noting that interest rates are restricting spending and that levels of core inflation remain too high, while he also stated a flexible approach to inflation targeting with a medium-term focus remains appropriate and that bringing levels of core inflation back in line with the bank’s 1-3% target is an important part of bringing inflation back to the 2% midpoint. Other officials have also provided a similar tone which is hawkish but doesn’t suggest an urgency to act as Chief Economist Conway noted recent economic data suggests monetary policy is working with the economy slowing and inflation easing, but they still have a way to go to get inflation back to the target midpoint of 2%, while Deputy Governor Hawkesby commented that New Zealand’s financial system remains strong and that the system can cope with high interest rates. The key data releases from New Zealand support the argument for a pause as GDP in Q3 showed a surprise contraction Q/Q at -0.3% (exp. 0.2%) and Y/Y at -0.6% (exp. 0.5%), while CPI in Q4 slowed as expected to 4.7% from 5.6% and the latest inflation forecasts were also reduced with 1-year and 2-year inflation expectations cut to 3.22% and 2.50% from 3.60% and 2.76%, respectively. This would suggest less pressure for the central bank to resume its tightening cycle although chances of a hike cannot be dismissed given that inflation remains above the RBNZ’s 1%-3% medium-term target and the latest Labour Cost Index data was also firmer than expected.

Australia CPI (Wed):

The Monthly CPI Indicator is forecast to tick higher to 3.5% Y/Y in January from 3.4% in December. Analysts warn that despite the stronger momentum, it reinforces the fact that both Quarterly and Monthly CPI point to easing inflation pressures faster than what was initially expected towards the back end of 2023. Due to base effects, Westpac sees the annual pace lifted from 3.4% to 3.9% in January. “Being the first month of the quarter, the January CPI will predominately serve as an update on durable goods prices such as garments, furniture and furnishings, household textiles, and household appliances (many of which are anticipated to fall) but very few services prices” it writes.

Australia Retail Sales (Thu):

Prelim Retail Sales are forecast to rise +1.7% M/M (prev. -2.7%). Analysts highlight that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has identified issues with measuring changes in seasonality and sales patterns, making the metric prone to revisions. Insights from the Westpac Card Tracker suggest that this weakness persisted into January, though there was a slight improvement in sales for the month. Westpac expects the metric at +0.3% M/M, and warns that December’s update included revisions to previous estimates, indicating the possibility of further revisions in January’s data.

US PCE (Thu):

The rate of PCE inflation is seen picking up in January, with the consensus looking for +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.2%), while the core PCE print is seen +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.2%). Traders are cognizant of the CPI series surprising to the upside in January (headline CPI was +0.3% M/M vs an expected +0.2%, while the core measure rose +0.4% M/M vs an expected +0.3%), but Capital Economics said „the strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation.“ CapEco sees core PCE inflation falling to 2.7% Y/Y from 2.9% and thinks it is on track to hit the Fed’s 2.0% inflation goal by May. „Since Fed officials have repeatedly said they will begin loosening policy before the PCE measure returns to target, that suggests the odds of a May rate cut are higher than the less than 50% probability now implied by fed funds futures,“ the consultancy added.

China PMIs (Fri):

Last time out, the NBS Manufacturing printed at 49.2, Non-Manufacturing at 50.7, Composite at 50.9, and Caixin Manufacturing at 50.8. This month’s data will be eyed to gauge the health of the Chinese economy, although will likely not encapsulate the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) cut at the start of the week. Nonetheless, desks expect the data to remain broadly stable. ING sees manufacturing dipping to 49.1 from 49.2, and says “the Lunar New Year effect could act as a drag on the February data as factories shut down for the break. This year’s eight-day holiday is also a day longer than normal. The PMI will likely come in below the critical 50 threshold for the fifth consecutive month, but the non-manufacturing PMI on the other hand should paint a more favourable picture. A strong recovery in travel and tourism over the Lunar New Year period bodes well for services sectors, and we expect an uptick from 50.7 to 51.0.”

EZ CPI (Fri):

Expectations are for headline Y/Y HICP to decline to 2.5% from 2.8% with the super-core metrics expected to decline to 3.0% from 3.3%. The prior release saw the headline tick lower to 2.8% from 2.9% amid a downtick in energy prices, whilst good prices continued to decline and services inflation remained elevated at 4%. For the upcoming report, analysts at ING note that doubts about the pace of inflation declines have increased in recent weeks and therefore markets should not „expect a big drop this month outside of some base effects“. As always, consensus for the EZ-wide metric will be shaped by regional releases released earlier in the week with French, German and Spanish numbers all due on Thursday. From a policy perspective, market pricing near-enough fully prices a 25bps cut by the ECB at the June meeting with a total of 88bps of loosening seen by year-end. A soft release could prompt a dovish repricing. However, ECB policymakers are unlikely to endorse such a shift in expectations with the Governing Council wanting to see Q1 wage metrics which will not be released until after the April meeting.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Fri):

The consensus currently looks for a little changed reading (49.1 expected, matching the prior). S&P Global’s PMI series saw flash manufacturing rise to 51.5 in February (prev. 50.7), with the data compiler noting the sharpest upturn in the health of the goods-producing sector since September 2022, with the expansion supported by a return to output growth and quicker increases in new orders and employment. Easing pressure on supply chains and better weather conditions underpinned the performance in February. „In line with stronger demand conditions, producers reduced their input buying only fractionally and at the slowest pace since November,“ S&P said, adding that „optimism in the outlook led firms to build stocks of purchases and finished goods, as both returned to growth in February, with firms indicating the first expansion in pre-production inventories since August 2022.“

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

• Fed’s Williams: My view of economy hasn’t changed after January data
• ECB’s Muller: I would like to see Q1 wage data before moving on rates
• ECB’s Nagel: We should act on data, not steps by other central banks
• Baker Hughes US weekly oil rig count +6
• Oil falls with Gaza talks set to begin in Paris

Markets:

• Gold up $12 to $2035
• US 10-year yields down 6.7 bps to 4.51%
• S&P 500 up 2 points to 5088
• WTI crude oil down $2.06 to $76.55
• AUD leads, CAD lags

Friday’s US economic calendar was completely bare and if you look at the closing levels in FX, there is hardly any movement to be seen. But under the surface it wasn’t so quiet as we saw some strong USD selling in Europe that was countered in early North American trade before markets chopped sideways late.

It wasn’t clear what was driving any of the moves today, aside from oil selling on Gaza ceasefire hopes. Equities got some early bids on the FOMO follow through from yesterday’s huge rally but by the time of the European close, that gave way to profit taking and stocks finished flat.

The mystery was in bonds where the long-end was strongly bid. US 30-year yields fell 9.3 bps and finished on the lows and the lowest close since Feb 12. If there was some kind of geopolitical bid, you would expect oil to have moved in the opposite direction but with Gaza inching towards peace, that was hard to see.

One theory surrounded a German bank with exposure to US commercial real estate. That will be something to watch over the weekend, as bunds were also strongly bid. I’m sure we haven’t heard the end of the saga regarding the debts around emptying offices.

Perhaps there is something else going on or flows were dominating but I’ll be keeping a keen eye on whatever was driving the bid in bonds and (to a lesser extent) gold.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This week was a big test for tech stocks and there was palpable anxiety in the lead-up to Nvidia earnings. But AI passed the test, leading to a huge rally last week. Those gains continued early today but profit taking soon crept in and markets finished about flat.

On the day:

• S&P 500 flat
• Nasdaq Comp -0.3%
• DJIA +0.3%
• Russell 2000 +0.1%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.5%

On the week:

• S&P 500 +1.7%
• Nasdaq Comp +1.4%
• DJIA 1.3%
• Russell 2000 -0.8%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.8%

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Happy Friday.

It’s been a dismal week for economic data in the sense that there hasn’t been much of it. There is a bit more to chew on next week, including a PCE report that the Fed will be watching very closely. It’s a leap year in 2024 for the first time since Feb 2020, when the pandemic was starting to fill front pages.

Monday, February 26

Tuesday, February 27

Wednesday, February 28

Thursday, February 29

Friday, March 1

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The oil market finished last week on an optimistic note, closing just below the $80 level and threatening to break to the highs since November.

Alas, the dam didn’t break and oil has slumped back to $76.62, finishing at the lows of the week. For most of the shortened week, oil was trading roughly flat but it slumped today, perhaps due to Israel-Hamas peace negotiations in Paris.That’s despite a US weekly oil inventory report that showed some tightness, particularly in products.

US refineries should be ramping up in the weeks ahead and stronger global growth is a tailwind but the main driver right now is OPEC and there are signs that producer discipline isn’t where it needs to be.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

What’s the market saying about forward inflation?

Here’s a picture of 1-year forward 1-year inflation.

It’s risen but it’s not arguing for problematic inflation.

The two-year forward picture has been turning lower, presumably as the market prices in fewer rate cuts.

I think there’s a portion of the market that is always worried about inflation and the post-covid environment certainly expanded their numbers. There’s always the possibility of another run-up in energy prices or some kind of shipping shock but I really don’t see a problem here. Yes, inflation could run at 3.5% instead of 2% and the Fed may even need to hike again but we’re not on the brink of some kind of fresh inflation problem.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.