Everyone Is Watching Netflix. Here’s Why Streaming Platform Stocks Are Hitting the Roof 0 (0)

Netflix
shares skyrocketed in the latter part of January, bringing cheers to all
Netflix stockholders. But what’s the story for other market players? Let’s
delve into what everyone should know about the surge in the streaming platform
and how analysts see its future.

First,
check out the chart below, illustrating Netflix stock movements over the past
five days. It shows a remarkable increase of more than 10% in a short span, a
significant jump for shares with such substantial value. If you’re
interested in other major and widely discussed trends, take a look at what’s happening with Bitcoin ETFs – they’re
all making waves on one page.

While
the January surge is impressive, it doesn’t stand out as much as the overall trend of Netflix stock since the beginning of 2023.
There were challenging times without extraordinary catalysts like the need to
stay home during the Covid pandemic or numerous AI technology projects.
Nevertheless, Netflix stock has nearly doubled in price in about a year.

This
aligns roughly with the average for FAANG stocks, although most in this group
are more heavily influenced by AI-related developments.

The
catalyst for the Netflix surge is the Q4 report, revealing a record number of
subscribers – 260.8 million in total. The streaming service reported a whopping
13.1 million new paid subscribers in the last three months of 2023, compared to
just 8.8 million in Q3. In essence, Netflix exhibited its strongest quarter since the Covid pandemic, even without the
current global circumstances providing such a boost.

Netflix
also highlighted its focus on the EMEA region (Europe, the Middle East, and
Africa), producing and acquiring content in Great Britain, Germany, Spain, and
other locations. Evidently, this strategy is paying off, as the EMEA countries
showed the highest subscriber growth in this quarter.

Additionally,
market participants appreciated that revenue results surpassed estimates,
totaling $8.8 million against the expected $8.7 million.

Typically,
earnings not only prompt chart reactions but also lead to adjustments in
analyst target prices. Many analyst firms have already done so, and most
experts are confident that Netflix stock still has room to grow. For instance,
Citibank raised the target price to $555 from $500, DZ Bank to $600 from $495,
Morgan Stanley to $600 from $550, JPMorgan to $610 from $510, and so on.

However,
not all specialists share this opinion and have adjusted their targets
accordingly. Hence, the one-year consensus forecast currently stands at nearly
0%. Remember, your opinion matters more than anything else. Therefore, it’s
crucial to conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Dow Jones Technical Analysis 0 (0)

Last week, the Dow Jones managed to print another
all-time high given another slate of goldilocks economic data with a pickup in
the PMIs, a much
better than expected GDP report
and the Core PCE
indicating that the inflation rate over the last 3 and 6 months data fell below
the Fed’s 2% target. This week contains many risk events so we might see the
market trading a bit on the defensive side, but barring any negative surprises,
we will likely continue to see new higher highs.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones eventually
pulled back into the previous highs around the 37777 level where it bounced
from as the buyers piled in with a defined risk below the support to
position for a rally into a new all-time high. There’s not much to do here for
the sellers other than waiting for a break below the support to target the
37066 level next.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
had also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement
level adding extra confluence to the
support zone. The bias should remain bullish as long as the price stays above
the 37777 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that price
is now at another support zone around the 38050 level. Dip-buyers are likely to
step in here to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop
into the 37777 support.

Upcoming Events

This week is going to be a really busy one with the FOMC
rate decision and lots of economic data on the agenda. We begin tomorrow with
the US Job Openings and the US Consumer Confidence reports. On Wednesday we
will see the US Employment Cost Index and the ADP data before the FOMC rate
decision later in the day. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week
with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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HugeWin Casino is Redefining Crypto Gambling with a Rich Gaming Ecosystem 0 (0)

HugeWin Casino, a newly established platform
as of January 2024, has quickly garnered attention in the cryptocurrency
gambling landscape. Its user-centric approach, coupled with an extensive array
of gaming options, underscores its emerging status within the industry.

Extensive Gaming Portfolio

The platform boasts an impressive selection of over 7,000
slot games, providing both traditional and innovative variants. Additionally,
it offers a diverse range of over 700 casino games, sourced from 12 renowned
game providers, including PragmaticLive, Evolution, and LiveGames. The
assortment spans across popular games like poker, roulette, blackjack, and
baccarat, including live casino tables, ensuring a comprehensive gaming
experience.

Extensive Gaming and Betting Portfolio

HugeWin Casino presents an expansive platform that caters
to a wide array of gaming and betting preferences. It boasts a remarkable
selection of over 7,000 slot games, offering a blend of traditional and
innovative variants. In addition to slots, the platform features a diverse
range of over 700 casino games, sourced from 12 esteemed game providers
including PragmaticLive, Evolution, and LiveGames. The assortment extends
across popular games such as poker, roulette, blackjack, and baccarat,
inclusive of live casino tables, ensuring a comprehensive and immersive gaming
experience.

Further broadening its spectrum, HugeWin Casino ventures
into the sports betting domain, presenting a selection of 35 virtual sports
games. This addition caters to the varied interests of its users, encompassing
popular sports like football, basketball, and tennis. Complementing its
extensive betting options, the platform also offers close to 70 regular games,
highlighting popular titles like Zeppelin, Aviator, and Spaceman, thereby
enriching the user experience with its multifaceted gaming and betting environment.

Commitment to Transparency and Security

Recognizing the importance of security in the digital
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Promotions and Tournaments

Understanding the dynamic needs of its users, HugeWin
Casino regularly introduces various special events, bonuses, and promotions.
The platform hosts two main recurring tournaments: the Weekly Multiplier
Tournament and the Monthly Turnover Tournament, with substantial prize pools.
Additionally, it offers a range of discounts and bonuses, including daily
casino discounts, weekly slot discounts, and a rewarding referral program.

About HugeWin

HugeWin
(https://hugewin.com/), a recent entrant in the online casino space, aims to
become a global leader. Launched in January 2024, the platform is devoted to
providing a fun and trustworthy gaming environment.

The platform prioritizes immediate disbursement of
earnings, barring instances of suspected fraud. Clients can expect prompt
payouts without tedious documentation. A wide array of betting options is
available, with round-the-clock access to any desired match. Live casino
sections offer an interactive experience with real croupiers.

For further information about HugeWin Casino’s game
offerings, events, and promotions, interested parties are encouraged to visit
the official website or follow the platform on X (Twitter) and Telegram.

Disclaimer: HugeWin is the source of this content. This
release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment
advice or an offer to invest. Information provided about HugeWin and its
services, including online gambling and cryptocurrency betting, involves
significant risks and may not be suitable for all individuals. Users should
exercise caution and are encouraged to conduct their own research before
participating in any gambling activities. Participation is at the user’s own risk
and should be approached with financial prudence.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Bank models say dollar selling the flavour for this month-end 0 (0)

Month-end hedging or rebalancing flows typically tend to pick up from the spot date (in this case, today) until the last day of the month itself. To start off the year, bank models appear to be signaling for mild but broad-based selling in the dollar.

Credit Agricole’s model suggests that dollar selling is on the cards with the strongest signal being against the Swedish krona. The banks‘ corporate flow model also points to euro buying going into month-end as well.

That’s something to keep in your back pocket just in case when considering the price movements in the days ahead. This could also add more complications to any Fed-related flows before the policy decision on Wednesday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Weekly Market Outlook (29-02 February) 0 (0)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

  • Tuesday: Japan
    Unemployment Rate, Eurozone Q4 GDP, US Job Openings, US Consumer
    Confidence.
  • Wednesday: BoJ
    Summary of Opinions, Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales,
    Australia CPI, Chinese PMIs, Switzerland Retail Sales, UST Quarterly
    Refunding Announcement, US ADP, Canada GDP, US ECI, FOMC Policy Decision.
  • Thursday: China
    Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI,
    Eurozone Unemployment Rate, BoE Policy Decision, US Challenger Job Cuts,
    US Jobless Claims, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
  • Friday:
    Australia PPI, US NFP.

Tuesday

The US December Job Openings are seen
falling to 8.750M vs. 8.790M prior. Job Openings have been falling steadily
since the peak in 2022 as the labour market continued to get into better
balance. As a reminder, the last
report
surprised to the downside with both
the hiring and quits rate falling below the pre-pandemic levels. It will be
interesting to see how the Fed’s pivot and the aggressive easing in financial
conditions influenced the data.

The US Consumer Confidence has been
falling steadily in the last quarter of 2023 amid a weakening labour market but
surprisingly jumped in December to levels last since in July. Compared
to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which shows more how the
consumers see their personal finances, the Consumer Confidence shows how the
consumers see the labour market.
The consensus sees the index increasing to 115.0 in January vs. 110.7 in December.

Wednesday

The Australian quarterly inflation
data is seen easing across all measures.
The CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.3% vs. 5.4% prior,
while the Q/Q reading is seen at 0.8% vs. 1.2% prior. The RBA is more
focused on the underlying inflation measures and those are expected to fall as
well. In fact, the Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is seen at 4.4% vs. 5.2% prior,
while the Q/Q figure is expected at 0.9% vs. 1.2% prior. We will also get the
Monthly CPI indicator which is expected to ease further to 3.7% vs. 4.3% prior.
The data will have no bearing on the February RBA meeting, but it will
influence the market’s pricing which currently expects the central bank to
start cutting rates in August.

The US Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) is
expected at 1.0% vs. 1.1% prior.
This is the most comprehensive measure of labour costs, but unfortunately, it’s
not as timely as the Average Hourly Earnings data. The Fed though watches
this indicator closely. Wage growth has been easing in the past two years,
but it still remains relatively elevated.

The Fed is expected to keep the FFR
unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. Given that the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates
are now below the 2% target, the central bank might also acknowledge the
progress by changing the line in the statement from “any additional policy
firming” to something like “sufficiently restrictive”. Beyond that we shouldn’t
see many changes and the attention will turn to the Press Conference where Fed
Chair Powell will be certainly questioned about the aggressive easing in
financial conditions since the December meeting, the falling inflation rate and
the change for their quantitative tightening policy.

Thursday

The Eurozone CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.8%
vs. 2.9% prior,
while the Core Y/Y measure is seen at 3.2% vs. 3.4% prior. The market
continues to expect the ECB to cut rates in April although the central bank
keeps on pushing back against such forecasts seeing the first cut coming in
summer. If the data continues to miss though, it will be very hard for the
ECB to maintain its patience. We will also see the latest Unemployment Rate
which is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%.

The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate
unchanged at 5.25%. The data leading up to the meeting has been mixed with some
more cooling in the labour
market
and wage growth but a surprisingly
hot CPI
report. Moreover, the Retail
Sales
saw a big plunge in December while
the PMIs
improved in January. The central bank will likely maintain its patient
approach reaffirming that they will keep rates high for sufficiently long to
return to the 2% target.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims after reaching a new cycle high started to trend
lower. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 210K vs. 214K prior,
while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims although the prior release saw
an increase to 1833K vs. 1806K prior.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected
at 47.3 vs. 47.4 prior.
Last week, the S&P
Global Manufacturing PMI

for January jumped back into expansion at 50.3, which was the highest reading
since October 2022. Maybe the recent
aggressive easing in financial conditions after the Fed’s pivot triggered a
renewed growth impulse and if that’s so, it will be hard for the market to
justify the six rate cuts currently priced for this year.

Friday

The US NFP is expected to show 173K jobs
added in January compared to 216K seen in December
and the Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior. The Average
Hourly Earnings Y/Y is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.1% prior, while the M/M measure
is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. The last report had some notable underlying
weaknesses with the household survey for example showing the largest jobs
decline since April 2020 lockdown, so some more weakness under the hood might
start to unnerve the market.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Go to Forexlive

Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC, NFP, ISM Mfg PMI, BoE, EZ CPI and EZ GDP 0 (0)

Week Ahead 29th January – 2nd February 2024

  • Sun: New Zealand Trade Balance
  • Mon: Japanese Unemployment (Dec)
  • Tue: Israel Municipal Elections; Spanish Flash CPI (Jan), Swiss KOF (Jan), German Flash GDP (Q4), EZ Flash GDP (Q4), EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Dec), US Home Prices (Nov), JOLTS (Dec), Japanese Retail Sales (Dec)
  • Wed: Australian CPI, FOMC & BCB Policy Announcements, BoJ SOO (Jan); Chinese NBS PMIS (Jan), German Flash CPI (Jan), German Retail Sales (Dec), Import Prices (Dec), French Prelim. CPI (Jan), German Unemployment (Jan), EZ GDP Flash Prelim. (Q4), US ADP (Jan) and Employment Cost Index (Q4), Chicago PMI (Jan), Italian Prelim. PCI (Jan)
  • Thu: Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Finals (Jan), EZ Flash CPI (Jan), BoE Announcement, ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan).
  • Fri: US Jobs Report (Jan)

Note: Previews are listed in day order

New Zealand Trade Balance (Sun)

There are currently no expectations for the New Zealand data. In last month’s release, the M/M trade deficit narrowed from NZD 1.7bln to NZD 1.2bln – largely in line with expectations, whilst Exports fell by over 5% Y/Y to NZD 5.99bln and imports contracted 15% Y/Y to NZD 7.23bln. The month saw a significant contraction in trade volumes with China, with exports to China falling by -9.7% Y/Y while Imports declined by 17% Y/Y. Analysts at Westpac believe that a smaller deficit for December is likely, reflective of a seasonal pickup in exports.

Australian Retail Sales (Tue)

December Retail Sales data is expected to print at -2.0% vs. +2.0% in November. November saw a stronger-than-expected 2% increase, contrasting with the choppy performance in September-October and a modest annual growth of 2.2%. The rise in November sales was partly attributed to changing seasonal trends, with more spending during ‚Black Friday‘ and ‚Cyber-week‘ sales periods. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted a significant increase in November seasonality over the last decade. For December, a decline in retail sales is anticipated, estimated at 0.5%, as per Westpac Card Tracker data. This decline is attributed to uneven spending during the Christmas period and weak underlying momentum, despite consumers taking advantage of sales discounts.

Australian CPI (Wed)

The quarterly and monthly CPI data will be in focus at the RBA. The monthly CPI Indicator, though not a precise monthly measure of CPI (as it aggregates various price survey data throughout the quarter), is vital for updating desks’ quarterly CPI forecasts. Markets expect the Y/Y metric at 3.7% whilst Westpac predicts a 3.0% rise. Q4 CPI meanwhile is anticipated to show a quarterly increase of 0.8% (prev. 1.2%) and an annual rise of 4.3% (prev. 5.4%) – slightly under the RBA’s 4.5% projection. The Trimmed Mean, or “core”, is seen at 0.9% for the quarter and 4.4% annually, marginally beneath the RBA’s 4.5% forecast. Westpac said “Our forecast for inflation is consistent with our current view that the RBA will remain on hold at the February meeting and that the RBA will be reducing the cash rate at the September meeting later this year.“

UST Quarterly Refunding Announcement (Wed)

Bank of America thinks the Treasury will deliver a repeat of the increase in auction sizes that it announced in November, where the Treasury suggested that a final increase would be needed for issuance to align with financing needs. „This would mark the third consecutive quarterly increase in coupon supply since the August refunding,“ BofA writes, „we see room for Treasury to continue growing coupon supply in 2025-2026, but expect it to hold off on further adjustments this year given uncertainty around QT and deficits.“ BofA also argues that the Treasury might prefer to delay further coupon increases given the perception of market sensitivity to supply announcements, and a desire to refrain from tightening financial conditions in an election year. In terms of the details, BofA says that while it is not the base case, there is potential for Treasury to deliver larger back-end supply next week than in November given that it delivered a lower increase at the 10yr and 30yr points vs its expectations and what the TBAC had recommended, a decision BofA thinks was driven by concern about the demand backdrop and sharp increase in term premium from August to October.

FOMC Announcement (Wed)

The FOMC is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at its January meeting, according to all economists surveyed by Reuters. The central bank is expected to begin cutting rates in Q2 in response to cooling inflation, according to 86 of 123 surveyed (55 thought June was more likely, while 31 see a reduction in May). Additionally, the Reuters poll reveals that most economists (72 of the 123) believe the Fed will cut rates by 100bps or fewer this year – that compares to money market pricing, which currently sees five 25bps rate cuts fully priced, with a good chance of a sixth; the Fed’s own forecasts see three 25bps rate cuts this year. „We still expect the Committee to maintain a cautious stance in the near-term even amid an increasingly improving profile for consumer prices, as the Fed would like to ascertain that the recent progress in inflation is sustainable,“ TD Securities said.

BCB Announcement (Wed)

The BCB is expected to fire its fifth rate cut of the current easing cycle, reducing rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Analysts continue to see further rate reductions this year, with the weekly central bank poll of private economists seeing the Selic falling to 9.00% this year, before easing a little further to 8.50% in 2025. However, Capital Economics suggests that „with inflation set to remain above target, fiscal risks likely to flare up again and the labour market only loosening gradually, we think interest rates will be lowered more cautiously than most currently expect (it sees the end-2024 Selic rate at 9.50%).“

Chinese NBS PMI (Wed)/Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Thu)

Chinese PMI data will be closely watched to gauge the health of the Chinese recovery, although it is unclear if the survey period will encapsulate the latest RRR cut announced by the PBoC which unleashes some CNY 1tln in liquidity. There are currently no forecasts for the metrics. In December, the Manufacturing metrics from NBS and Caixin diverted, with the official government PMI indicating a continued contraction (at 49.0), while the Caixin Global report suggested a slight growth (at 50.4), although the latter is known to be more volatile than the NBS metric. Sentiment in China has been downbeat for most of this month with the slew of measures announced last year largely overlooked by investors, although the RRR cut announced on Wednesday likely lifted investor sentiment on China off lows. Analysts at JP Morgan expect China can maintain its recovery momentum into H1 2024, before moderating to trend growth in H2 2024. JPM says deflation will end in 2024, benefiting from the changing dynamics in global commodity prices. However, the desk suggests low inflation will persist amid biased policy support for production vs. consumption.

EZ GDP Flash (Wed)

Expectations are for the flash release of Eurozone GDP to show a 0.1% Q/Q contraction in Q4 vs the 0.1% contraction in Q3, with the annualised rate seen flat at 0% Y/Y, which would also match the Q3 print. Ahead of the release, analysts at Investec note that the Eurozone has continued to flirt with a technical recession for some time without actually reaching the milestone; its analysts add that this has come in the context of an energy crisis stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war. However, as energy prices have retreated significantly, the performance of the Eurozone economy looks less impressive. In terms of a regional perspective, the German technical recession in H2 2023 is clearly a standout. That being said, Investec is of the view that “other major Euro area economies seem to have eked out a better performance, avoiding that tag” and as such, this should lead to a broader readout of stagnation (0% Q/Q) growth for the upcoming release. From a policy perspective, a soft report could bring forward market pricing of a rate cut. However, such bets may like some conviction given that CPI is released the following day.

EZ Flash CPI (Thu)

Expectations are for headline Y/Y CPI to rise to 3.1% from 2.9% with the core rate seen falling to 3.2% from 3.4%. The prior release saw headline inflation rise to 2.9% in December (vs prev. 2.4%) amid unfavourable energy base effects from Germany, while core inflation continued to decline, with December showing a downtick for the super-core measure to 3.4% from 3.6%. For the upcoming release, analysts at Moody’s note that “base effects in the energy segment will maintain upward pressure on the reading, but we expect these to be outweighed by lower food and core goods prices.” The desk adds that services inflation “should decline as well, though not by much”. From a policy perspective, a soft reading could see markets fully price in an April rate cut, which is currently seen at around 90% probability, with a total of 140bps of easing seen by year-end. However, such pricing will only hold if policymakers don’t close the door on a move in April.

BoE Announcement (Thu)

Analysts surveyed are unanimous in their view that the MPC will once again stand pat on rates, leaving the Bank Rate at 5.25%. The vote will likely be unanimous, with the three December dissenters (Greene, Haskell, Mann) likely to move to the “unchanged” camp after being wrongfooted by the November inflation report, which saw the all-important services print decline to 6.3% Y/Y from 6.6% – in stark contrast to the MPC’s projection of 6.9%. Since the prior meeting, the annualised rate of headline inflation unexpectedly advanced to 4.0% Y/Y from 3.9%, while the services print ticked higher to 6.4% Y/Y from 6.3%. However, expectations for the broader disinflationary trend to continue remain in place; ING bank is of the view that inflation will dip below 2% in April and sit around the 1.5% area in May/June. Elsewhere, GDP in November expanded 0.3% M/M (vs the 0.36% contraction the prior month). Survey data remains strong with the January composite PMI rising to 52.5 from 52.1 with the services print at 53.8 vs. prev. 53.4. In the labour market, the unemployment rate (subject to data quality concerns) holding steady at 4.2%, while headline earnings growth in the 3m/YY period to November fell to 6.5% from 7.2%. Softness has been observed in the consumer too, with monthly retail sales -3.2% in December (vs prev. 1.4%). Incremental commentary from the MPC has been minimal, cementing expectations of a hold in policy. Beyond the upcoming meeting, markets assign an approximately 80% chance of a June rate cut, with a total of 92bps of easing seen by year-end. Thirty-eight of the 70 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the first cut to come in Q2, with all but four seeing at least one cut before September. For the accompanying MPR, Oxford Economics expects that the MPC will “bring forward the timing of when it expects inflation to return to the 2% target to Q2 2024 from end-2025.” On growth, the consultancy says “the BoE will likely take a less downbeat view of the economy’s prospects compared to November, when it forecast that GDP would flatline this year and grow only 0.25% in 2025.”

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thu)

As a comparison, S&P Global’s flash US manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in January from 47.9 in December, to a fresh 15-month high, which signals the first improvement in operating conditions at goods producers in nine months, S&P said, though added that the upturn was only fractional amid a further drop in production. The output index picked-up to 48.7 from 48.1, with manufacturing firms continuing to see a moderate drop in activity in the month. Challenging trucking conditions due to storms and transportation delays was reported to have weighed on vendor performance, with lead times rising for the first time in over a year. Still, S&P said it was an encouraging start to the year, with output across both goods and services rising in January at the fastest rate since last June, with growth momentum stepping up on the back of improved demand conditions. „New orders inflows have now picked up for three months, buoyed in particular by improving sales to domestic customers, helping lift business confidence about the year ahead to the most optimistic since May 2022,“ S&P said, adding that „confidence has also been buoyed by hopes of lower inflation in 2024, easing the cost of living squeeze and facilitating the path to lower interest rates.“ Prices rose in January at the slowest rate since the initial pandemic lockdowns of early 2020, the report said, with companies stating that selling price inflation was now below pre-pandemic averages, and consistent with CPI dropping below the Fed’s 2% target. „With the survey indicating that supply delays have intensified while labour markets remain tight, cost pressures will need to be monitored closely in the coming months,“ S&P writes, „but for now the survey send a clear and welcome message of resilient economic growth and sharply waning inflation.“

Riksbank Preview (Thu)

Expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00% given November’s guidance for rates to remain at this level for 2024 and 2025. A decision which is justified by inflation continuing to moderate alongside ongoing signs of a domestic slowdown; though, Services PMI for December lifted back to the 50.0 mark. Given the inflation prints, it is possible the Riksbank revises its guidance for no 2024 cut, though such an announcement may be judged premature at this meeting. While rates are expected unchanged, the Riksbank may elect to announce an increase to the pace of sales of government bonds as flagged at the last gathering. As a reminder, in November the Riksbank left its rate at 4.00% defying expectations for a hike and stated that they are prepared to raise the policy rate further if inflation prospects deteriorate. Additionally, on purchases, said they are considering increasing the pace of sales of gov’t bonds (currently SEK 5bln/month) potentially in January. An announcement which was regarded as a neutral hold overall. Within the minutes, the most pertinent element was Breman switching focus to inflation/activity from the weak SEK.

JMMC Meeting (Thu)

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is poised to meet on February 1st as part of meetings held every two months to monitor the implementation of the OPEC pact. As a reminder, the JMMC will not implement any changes to policy but they can make a recommendations to the decision-making OPEC+ body. Note, Reuters sources earlier this month suggested a video conference will be held. The meeting also comes against the backdrop of volatile crude prices and as geopolitical tensions escalate. There have been no indications that the OPEC+ group is looking to take action in the near term. In terms of the most recent OPEC MOMR, the release inaugurated a 2025 demand growth forecast which was a downgrade from the current 2024 forecast (2.2mln BPD in 2024 vs 1.8mln BPD in 2025). Meanwhile, the Saudi Aramco CEO at Davos suggested that 2024 oil demand growth was seen around 1.5mln BPD (vs 2.2mln BPD forecast in the MOMR). Supply metrics from Angola were also omitted from calculations following the country’s departure from the OPEC-13 in December. The latest Reuters sources stated the committee would probably not make any changes to existing policy during the meeting, but one source said the meeting would mainly discuss the group’s production levels and that there will be no recommendations at the JMMC. One source added that a decision on whether or not to extend a portion of the group’s voluntary oil output cuts into April would likely come at the end of February, although another source said the decision’s timing was not yet clear. Meanwhile, a Russian delegate stated there is no evidence that additional steps are needed.

US Jobs Report (Fri)

The consensus expects 162k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in January (range 140-285k), with the unemployment rate projected to be unchanged at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, slightly cooler than the +0.4% registered in December, while average workweek hours are seen ticking higher to 34.4hrs from 34.3. Analysts also point out that the January jobs data will incorporate final benchmark revisions; Investec said that the prelim estimate suggested that the level of payrolls in March 2023 will be revised 306k lower, but argues that this tells us little about recent trends, and updated seasonal factors may have an impact. NOTE: Ahead of the January employment report, the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will be released on Tuesday; Moody’s said that the labour market came slowly into better balance throughout 2023, and it expects the JOLTS data to show job openings falling modestly from the 8.79mln printed in November. And on Wednesday, the Q4 employment cost data will be released, which analysts will look to to determine if the moderation in pay growth continued in the final quarter of the year; Moody’s looks for a slight deceleration from Q3’s 1.1% pace.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: PCE core inflation dips below 3% 0 (0)

Markets:

  • CAD leads, JPY lags
  • S&P 500 down 0.1%
  • US 10-year yields up 1.5 bps to 4.15%
  • Gold down $1 to $2018
  • WTI crude oil up $0.81 to $78.17

The market didn’t know exactly what to do with the US PCE report. On the hawkish side, the headline PCE number wasn’t as cool as GDP suggested it could be and personal income was strong. On the dovish side, the core PCE headline was soft and the six-month annualized numbers are below the Fed’s target. The market initially went both ways but settled right around the middle.

Bonds chopped as well but yields were ultimately led higher by the front end, perhaps in anticipation of a larger auction size announcement next week. That helped to spur the dollar modestly higher but it ultimately left the euro and pound just 7 pips higher and lower, respectively.

The yen was the laggard in part due to softer Tokyo CPI data last week. The market is also struggling to see global inflation and the thinking is that a rate hiking cycle is turning into 2-3 ’normalization‘ hikes instead, at best. USD/JPY rose above 148 and continued to 148.20 before settling back near the figure.

The loonie was a stronger performer, perhaps in part to TMX announcing plans for line-fill but mostly due to higher oil prices. Crude was volatile but late-news of a tanker being struck by missiles and catching fire in the Red Sea certainly didn’t hurt crude. USD/CAD fell as low as 1.3415 before bouncing to 1.3447 last.

AUD wasn’t quite as fortunate as China sentiment ebbed after the big mid-week rally. It’s a market that will need constant good news to shake off the malaise and today showed just how big of a battle it will be. AUD/USD finished slightly lower on the day at 0.6580 after hitting 0.6610 and forming a minor double top with yesterday’s high.

Have a wonderful weekend, the week ahead is a big one.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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US equities end the winning streak with wimper 0 (0)

It has been a lively month and week for US equities but aside from a trainwreck from Intel (-12%), it was a quiet day in terms of volatility and price moves. The declines end a series of record highs for the S&P 500.

  • S&P 500 -0.1%
  • Nasdaq Comp -0.4%
  • DJIA +0.2%
  • Russell 2000 +0.1%
  • Toronto TSX Comp +0.1%

On the week:

  • S&P 500 +1.1
  • Nasdaq Comp +0.9%
  • DJIA +0.7%
  • Russell 2000 +1.7%
  • Toronto TSX Comp +1.2%

Next week is a major one on the earnings calendar highlighted by Alphabet & Microsoft (Tuesday) and Amazon & Apple Thursday.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Red Sea ship is using firefighting equipment to control fire 0 (0)

I’m surprised that Trafigura was still transiting the Red Sea with oil but I suspect they won’t be anymore. The company said firefighting equipment on board is being deployed to control a fire caused in one cargo tank on the Marlin Luanda, which is an oil tanker.

The ship was reportedly carrying naphtha and headed to Malaysia.

This is straight up terrorism, I hope the workers on the ship are safe.

Update: Apparently it was carrying Russian fuel.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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What’s on the US economic calendar next week 0 (0)

Here’s a look at the US economic calendar for next week:

  • January 29: Treasury quarterly financing estimates
  • January 30: Dallas Fed, FHFA house prices, Case-Shiller, and Conference Board consumer confidence
  • January 31: FOMC decision, quarterly refunding announcement, JOLTS and the ADP employment report
  • February 1: Chicago PMI, Challenger job cut report, jobless claims, nonfarm productivity, construction spending, ISM Manufacturing
  • February 2: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, University of Michigan consumer sentiment final, factory orders.

The market is pricing in 133 bps in Fed cuts this year ahead of the data.

For more, check out the economic calendar.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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