Cable extends gains as UK PMI reaffirms economic resilience 0 (0)

GBP/USD was already up to around 1.2730 but is now pulling higher to 1.2750 levels after the UK PMI data here. The beat on both the services and manufacturing prints in the UK reaffirms that the economy is keeping more resilient in recent months and that’s good news for the BOE. At a time when inflation might prove to be more stubborn and resistant, the fact that the economy is holding up will allow them more breathing room at least.

As seen above, the near-term chart is showing that buyers are in control once again for GBP/USD.

However, the bigger picture continues to show much consolidation since mid-December. The topside of that remains the 1.2800 mark and buyers will have to break above that to really push for an extension towards 1.3000 next.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Treasury yields hold higher so far on the day 0 (0)

This is in part what is helping to keep the dollar from breaking down further earlier today. The greenback is now trading more mixed but keeping largely steadier against the European currencies. EUR/USD was up to 1.0915 earlier but now down to 1.0870 while USD/CHF is up to 0.8690 after having traded to a low of 0.8650 earlier today.

USD/JPY is still down 0.2% to 147.77 but that owes more to the post-BOJ reaction, after Ueda’s more hawkish tone. Meanwhile, the antipodeans are barely hanging on to its early gains with AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6585 but that is down from a high of 0.6612 earlier. The aussie and kiwi were bolstered in Asia trading after China is reportedly planning a ¥1 trillion backstop for the stock market here.

Going back to the bond market, there is still some pushing and pulling going on as seen in the chart above. 10-year yields are bouncing back today after the drop yesterday, after having leaned against its 200-day moving average (blue line) at 4.094%. That remains the key technical level to watch in gauging sentiment for this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis – Key breakout in sight 0 (0)

USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
    the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
  • The latest US CPI slightly beat expectations but analysts
    expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2% M/M again following the CPI data.
  • The labour market continues to soften but remains
    resilient with US Jobless Claims beating expectations week after week.
  • The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed by a big margin.
  • The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report jumped to the highest levels since
    2021.
  • The Fed members recently have been pushing
    back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
  • The market’s expectations for the first rate cut
    were pushed back to May following strong economic data.

CAD

  • The BoC kept the interest rate steady at
    5.00%
    as expected at the last meeting with
    the usual caveat that it’s prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.
  • The latest Canadian CPI beat expectations across the board with
    the underlying inflation measures remaining elevated, which should give the BoC
    a reason to wait for more data before considering rate cuts.
  • On the labour market side, the latest report missed
    expectations although wage growth spiked to the highest level since 2021.
  • The Canadian PMIs continue to fall
    further into contraction as the economy keeps on weakening amid restrictive
    monetary policy.
  • The market expects the BoC to start
    cutting rates in Q2.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
through the key trendline and
extended the rally into the 1.35 handle. This breakout opened the door for a
move into the swing high resistance around
the 1.36 handle where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers should keep on looking for dip-buying opportunities on the lower
timeframes while the sellers will want to see the momentum changing and some
key breaks before piling in more aggressively.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
broke through the key upward trendline but bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. If the price were to make a new higher high, then the
fakeout would be confirmed and the buyers will likely pile in more aggressively
to target the 1.36 handle.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price
got rejected from the downward trendline as the sellers stepped in to position
for a drop into new lower lows. The bearish momentum looks weak though and we
could see a break above the trendline which would see the buyers increasing
their bullish bets into the 1.36 resistance.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit more tranquil on the data front with
the major releases scheduled for the final part of the week. We begin tomorrow
with the BoC rate decision and the US PMIs. On Thursday, we have the Advance US
Q4 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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USD/JPY recovers after the post-BOJ drop earlier 0 (0)

The low earlier hit 146.97 on BOJ governor Ueda’s press conference but the pair is now trading near 147.85 on the day. Besides a move higher in bond yields, there’s not much else driving the rebound in USD/JPY. The earlier dip is largely driven by flows in the heat of the moment, as Ueda did change up his tone today.

In the bigger picture though, USD/JPY looks to be moving back up as traders reconsider a break under the 100-day moving average (red line) at 147.50. That remains the key technical level to watch in the sessions ahead, in making sense of the price momentum in the pair.

As for the BOJ today, what exactly is the takeaway for traders?

No policy change as expected

The central bank leaving policy unchanged was widely expected, even more so after the earthquakes in Western Japan. They chose to maintain the status quo, making it a consistent message that they are waiting on the spring wage negotiations before pursuing any action. So, there wasn’t much to really scrutinise on this I would say.

Ueda with a bolder message in the press conference

You can already sense a different tone from Ueda today just by the headlines alone:

It certainly looks like he is teeing up a potential policy change in the months ahead, with April being the likely pivot point. Policymakers have kept alluding to the results of the spring wage negotiations before making any moves and that is what markets are anticipating right now.

All that being said, do remember that all of this talk was supposed to be narrative for the BOJ last year already. Instead, here we are talking about finally reaching that last step one year later. Ueda’s remarks today certainly lays out the groundwork for that but will the central bank really follow through?

They have a knack for disappointing markets on many occasions over the last one year and I fear that they might have an excuse to do so again in the months ahead.

If the price action in the Japanese yen today is any indication, it is that traders are growing tired of getting bluffed by the BOJ at this stage.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Key trendline in sight 0 (0)

USD

  • The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
    the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
  • The latest US CPI slightly beat expectations but analysts
    expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2% M/M again following the CPI data.
  • The labour market continues to soften but remains
    resilient with US Jobless Claims beating expectations week after week.
  • The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed by a big margin.
  • The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report jumped to the highest levels since
    2021.
  • The Fed members recently have been pushing
    back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
  • The market’s expectations for the first rate cut
    were pushed back to May following strong economic data.

GBP

  • The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting
    with no dovish language as they reaffirmed that they will keep rates high for
    sufficiently long to return to the 2% target.
  • The latest employment report showed job losses in December and
    lower than expected wage growth.
  • The UK CPI beat expectations across the board, which is
    going to reinforce the BoE’s neutral stance.
  • The last UK PMIs showed the Manufacturing sector falling
    further into contraction while the Services sector continues to expand.
  • The latest UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the
    board by a big margin as consumer spending remains weak.
  • The market expects the BoE to start
    cutting rates in Q2.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD bounced
on the key support around
the 1.2610 level and rallied into the 1.2750 level as the buyers piled in to
target the 1.28 handle. There’s not much to glean from this timeframe as the
price trades right in the middle of the range, so we need to zoom in to see
some more details.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has
been rising tentatively as both the currencies remain relatively strong. We can
see that we have a trendline where
there’s also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is
where the buyers should lean onto to position for a continuation of the rally
with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for a drop back into the 1.26 handle.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD for
quite some time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed
by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it should point to a pullback into the
trendline where the buyers will have the opportunity to increase their bullish
bets with a better risk to reward setup. Conversely, if the price were to break
below the trendline a reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will pile in
to target a drop back into the 1.26 support.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit more tranquil on the data front with
the major releases scheduled for the final part of the week. We begin tomorrow
with the UK and the US PMIs. On Thursday, we have the Advance US Q4 GDP and the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the week with
the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Bitcoin falls further after break under $40,000 mark 0 (0)

The price is now down 1.6% on the day to $39,100 and threatens a much steeper drop below the $40,000 mark. This comes as we are seeing a test up against its 100-day moving average (red line) of $39,230 and a break of that will see sellers exert more control over the latest downside run in Bitcoin.

As it turns out, the high in Bitcoin comes right as the ETF was launched and on its first day of trading. Since then, it has been a real drag as the buy the rumour, sell the fact playbook takes over. The question now is, how low can this go?

The ETF story has been a major disappointment to say the least and now that is put aside, what exactly is the spark for the next move higher? This looks like it can get a lot uglier before it gets any better.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Significant Improvements for Partnership from JustMarkets 0 (0)

JustMarkets,
an esteemed player in the global brokerage arena, is thrilled to announce
significant upgrades to its partnership programs. The launch of the new Partner
Loyalty Program
and enhancements to the Introducing Broker (IB) Program
mark a pivotal moment in the company’s mission to foster robust and rewarding
partnerships. These initiatives are set to revolutionize how partners engage,
offering unparalleled rewards and opportunities for growth.

Improved Introducing Broker Program

The IB
Program, crowned as the „Best IB/Affiliate Program 2023“ by Money
Expo, has undergone significant refinements to better serve the growing
community of JustMarkets partners. The program’s structure now features six
levels, each offering increasing benefits and potential earnings. From the
initial Partner status to the pinnacle Brilliant Partner level, every tier is
crafted to recognize and reward the effort and success of affiliates.

Noteworthy features of the enhanced
IB Program include:

·
Increased
commission potential, with partners earning up to $25 per lot.

·
The
introduction of a Boost Period for new partners, accelerating level progression
threefold during the initial three months.

·
An
automated rebate system that enhances client retention and satisfaction.

·
The
Subpartner Program, offering an additional commission stream by building a
network of sub-affiliates.

These
enhancements are part of JustMarkets‘ commitment to providing a dynamic,
rewarding, and growth-oriented partnership environment.

New Partner Loyalty Program

Starting
January 1st, 2024, JustMarkets is ushering in a new era of partner engagement
with the introduction of its Partner Loyalty Program. This program is designed
to surpass traditional reward schemes, focusing on appreciating and recognizing
the unwavering loyalty of partners. Participants can look forward to luxury
prizes, including international dream vacations, high-end cars, and substantial
cash rewards, reflecting JustMarkets‘ commitment to their partners‘ success.

The loyalty
program emphasizes simple yet impactful objectives: achieving targeted referred
trading volumes, maintaining a robust active client base, and ensuring
consistent client engagement. These milestones are seamlessly managed and
monitored via an intuitive Partner Area, ensuring transparency and ease of
access.

The program
signals a transition to a more luxurious and rewarding journey. With these
enhancements, JustMarkets invites partners worldwide to partake in a
partnership experience where dedication is celebrated with luxury.

Why JustMarkets Stands Out

JustMarkets
continues to be a broker of choice for many due to its unwavering commitment to
providing secure and advantageous trading conditions. Regulated by reputable
bodies including CySEC, FSA, FSCA, and FSC, JustMarkets offers a safe trading
environment. The broker boasts an expansive array of over 170 trading
instruments, catering to diverse trading preferences.

In 2023,
JustMarkets made strides by reducing spreads by 55% on popular assets, offering
swap-free trading for all accounts, and implementing Gap Protection to secure
trades against market volatility.

Also this
broker offers a $30
Welcome Bonus
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services without any investments. Along with this, all clients can get up to
120% Deposit Bonus on every deposit they make.

Furthermore,
JustMarkets provides its clients with comprehensive market analysis from
experienced in-house experts, ensuring traders have access to the latest market
insights and can make informed trading decisions.

All Markets at Your Fingertips

JustMarkets
is dedicated to ensuring that trading is as convenient and accessible as
possible. To this end, the broker has developed cutting-edge mobile
applications that allow clients worldwide to access global markets anytime,
anywhere. Recognizing the diverse needs of its global clientele, JustMarkets
has released two state-of-the-art trading apps, one for iOS and another for
Android users, thus embodying its commitment to providing top-notch trading
conditions for everyone.

These apps
are not static but are continuously evolving to meet and exceed user
expectations. A recent update has already enhanced user experience by
integrating the functionality of tracking open/closed positions and pending
orders for MT5 accounts. This feature allows traders to manage their trades and
monitor their success more effectively, directly from their mobile devices.

Copytrading Revolution

2023 marked
a significant leap forward for JustMarkets with the launch of the Copytrading
mobile app for iOS and Android. This app empowers investors to copy the trades
of seasoned traders, anytime and anywhere.

In
conjunction with the app, they introduced the New Trader’s Expertise Indicator
– a sophisticated tool designed to provide deeper insights into a trader’s risk
profile and strategy effectiveness.

The Vision and Mission

At the core
of JustMarkets‘ operations is a steadfast mission and vision. The mission,
„To create a convenient and transparent trading environment so that
everyone can reach their full investment potential,“ alongside the vision,
„To be the world’s most customer-centric broker,“ have been guiding
principles since the company’s inception in 2012. These core values underscore
every decision and enhancement made, aiming to provide the best possible
trading experience for all clients and partners.

Looking Ahead

With these
strategic enhancements and a continued focus on improving partnership
conditions, JustMarkets anticipates a surge in partner engagement and client
acquisition. The improved Partner Loyalty and IB Programs are more than just
enhancements; they represent JustMarkets‘ dedication to growth, excellence, and
the prosperity of its community.

As
JustMarkets continues to expand its services and reach, the question remains:
will you be part of this transformative journey toward successful trading and
rewarding partnerships? Join JustMarkets today and step into a world of
superior trading conditions and partnership opportunities.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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China says it will step up scrutiny over officials for falsifying economic data 0 (0)

The NBS says that any officials caught committing data fraud „will be found, investigated and dealt with, and will not be tolerated“. Adding that „statistical fraud is the biggest corruption in the field of statistics, which seriously violates the law and affects the quality of the data, obstructing and even misleading macro decision-making“.

For me, this just reads as yet another excuse as Beijing is looking for more scapegoats amid the growing backlash surrounding their approach on the Chinese economy. It isn’t so much so as the statistics that are the ones misleading politicians as the other way around. When the biggest names in the hierarchy are spouting numbers as they please, we all know that the statisticians in China have little choice but to find some workaround to fit that narrative. Otherwise, there will be hell to pay if the numbers don’t tally with the story.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Dow Jones Technical Analysis 0 (0)

Last Friday, the Dow Jones surged into another all-time
high following the strong University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment report
as the market continues to see a goldilocks
economy. In fact, the US Jobless Claims have been improving and Retail Sales
surprised to the upside. Moreover, we have the US PCE data on Friday where we
will likely see another soft figure. On the other hand, the strong economic
data is making the market to price out the rate cuts, which might eventually
dent the economic and the stock market performance.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones last
Friday made yet another all-time high following the solid consumer sentiment
report. We can notice though that the price is diverging strongly
with the MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might get a fakeout and a drop back into the support around
the 37066 level which would give the buyers a better risk to reward setup.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the divergence with the MACD and the recent rally from the 37066
support zone. We can see that the price is a bit overstretched as depicted by
the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In
such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that there’s
not much where the buyers can lean onto given that we are in unexplored
territory. More aggressive buyers might want to step in as soon as the price
pulls back into the previous highs around the 37777 level. More conservative
buyers will want to see the price pulling back all the way to the 37450 level
where they will find the confluence from
the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement
level. The sellers, on the other hand,
will likely pile in at every break lower targeting a break below the 37066
support.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit more tranquil on the data front with
the major releases scheduled for the final part of the week. We begin on
Wednesday with the US PMIs while on Thursday we will see the Advance US Q4 GDP
and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Japan PM Kishida: We’re at a critical juncture to escape from deflation 0 (0)

  • Growth is outpacing prices needed for virtuous cycle
  • Will work on steps to pass on labour costs on to consumers
  • Wage hikes at small and medium-sized businesses are essential

Come March and April, it will go without saying that there will be substantial wage hikes from corporates and the bigger Japanese firms. However, what may trouble Japan will be whether or not smaller firms – especially those in less populated regions – will be able to deliver on the same front. If there is to be a growing disparity in the next few cycles, that could grow into more of a problem for Japan in the years to come.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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