I already outlined the technical predicament for AUD/USD earlier here. And the charts for USD/CAD and NZD/USD are also pointing to a lack of technical follow through by dollar bulls on the week.

In the case of USD/CAD, the pair did manage a push above its 200-day moving average (blue line) but is ultimately seeing that falter today. That is similar to AUD/USD as highlighted in the linked post above. For USD/CAD, the ceiling appears to be at the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.3538 on the week.

In any case, the fall back below the 200-day moving average of 1.3480 is the more significant development in trading today. And just like AUD/USD, the near-term bias is also shifting as price falls below the 100-hour moving average of 1.3483 currently.

Looking to NZD/USD:

There was a push below 0.6100 during the week but it fell short in breaching the 200-day moving average (blue line). That coincides with the December low, which was also defended by the key level.

As such, buyers are very much still in the game. And even though the near-term chart is favouring sellers for now, the turn in broader market sentiment and resilience among other commodity currencies could help to translate to better fortunes for the kiwi.

Either way, the fact is that buyers have a clear line in the sand to make their stand now. And that is the 200-day moving average at 0.6089.

To sum up, the dollar did make a strong case for a run higher against the commodity currencies this week. But it looks like it is falling short in sealing the deal as we wrap things up before the weekend. Or is there time for yet another twist in the story?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with a shift in
  the statement that indicated the end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t push back against the strong dovish pricing
  and even said that they are focused on not making the mistake of holding rates
  high for too long.
• The latest US CPI slightly beat expectations but analysts
  expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2% M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expectation for a rate cut in March fell
  to roughly 50%.

CAD

• The BoC kept the interest rate steady at
  5.00% as expected at the last meeting with
  the usual caveat that it’s prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.
• BoC Governor Macklem recently has been leaning on a more
  neutral side and even started to talk about rate cuts although he remains
  uncertain on the timing.
• The latest Canadian CPI beat expectations across the board with
  the underlying inflation measures remaining elevated, which should give the BoC
  a reason to wait for more data before considering rate cuts.
• On the labour market side, the latest report missed
  expectations although wage growth spiked to the highest level since 2021.
• The Canadian PMIs continue to fall
  further into contraction as the economy keeps on weakening amid restrictive
  monetary policy.
• The market expects the BoC to start
  cutting rates in Q2.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke
through the key trendline and
extended the rally into the 1.35 handle. This breakout opened the door for a
move into the swing high resistance around
the 1.36 handle where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
buyers should keep on looking for dip-buying opportunities on the lower
timeframes while the sellers will want to see the momentum changing and some
key breaks before piling in more aggressively.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an
upward trendline now that will define the current uptrend. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the trendline where they will also find the previous swing high and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the
bullish setup and position for a drop into the 1.3225 support zone.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
pair has been pulling back recently from overstretched levels. We can also
notice that the price diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be right around the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.

Upcoming Events

Today, the only notable events will be the Canadian
Retail Sales data and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The near-term chart for gold tells a better story on price action in the precious metal so far this year:

During the downside push two weeks ago, gold struggled to get above the key hourly moving averages. And after a break of the 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages earlier this week, gold suffered a significant drop and ran close towards a test of the $2,000 mark.

But amid a turn in broader market sentiment yesterday and today, gold has rebounded all the way back up to $2,029.

And that is seeing price run up against a test of the confluence of the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at $2,030.20 to $2,031.75. For sellers, keep below that region and the near-term bias will stay more bearish. For buyers, break above that and the bias will shift towards being more bullish instead.

On the week itself, gold looks poised for yet another drop but it really could’ve turned out worse. After the fall earlier this week, higher rates could’ve threatened a much steeper decline for gold if not for some resilience in broader markets. I still reckon there is a score to settle there but if in doubt, the technicals tend to act as a guide at least.

And in this case, gold is now returning to test a critical point that has defined price momentum so far this year. The next near-term move before the weekend at least will be defined by the battle between traders at the juncture above.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are now up 0.4% with tech stocks leading the charge once again after the gains yesterday. Nasdaq futures are up 0.7% while Dow futures are up 0.2% currently. After having struggled earlier in the week, equities are producing quite a solid turnaround in fortunes yesterday and so far today.

The S&P 500 index itself now looks to be setting up for a test of the 4,800 mark once again. That has been a key technical level that has prevented a break to fresh all-time highs, so there is that to watch out for. If that gives way, expect risk sentiment to go running as we look towards the closing stages of this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting with a shift in the statement that indicated the
  end of the tightening cycle.
• The Summary of Economic Projections showed a
  downward revision to Growth and Core PCE in 2024 while the Unemployment Rate
  was left unchanged. Moreover, the Dot Plot was revised to show three rate cuts
  in 2024 compared to just two in the last projection.
• Fed Chair Powell didn’t
  push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
  on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long.
• The latest US CPI
  slightly beat expectations but analysts expect the Core PCE to print at 0.2%
  M/M again following the CPI data.
• The labour market continues to soften but remains
  resilient with US Jobless Claims beating
  expectations week after week.
• The latest ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations, while the ISM Services PMI missed
  by a big margin.
• The US Retail Sales beat
  expectations across the board.
• The Fed members recently have been pushing
  back on the aggressive rate cuts expectations.
• The market expectation for a rate cut in March fell
  to roughly 50%.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with
  the central bank maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which is another welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs improved but remain in contraction.
• The
  market expects the RBA to start cutting rates in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD bounced
on the key support zone
around the 0.65 handle as the price got overstretched on the downside as
depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward
setup around the downward trendline where
they will also find the confluence with the
Fibonacci retracement levels.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the
trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into
the 0.69 resistance.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD as it
was approaching the key support zone. This is generally a sign of weakening
momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it should be
an extra confirmation for a pullback into the trendline. At the moment, we have
a minor upward trendline defining the uptrend on this timeframe. The buyers
will likely keep on leaning on it to extend the rally into the major trendline
while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and
target a break below the key support.

Upcoming Events

Today, the only notable event will be the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The more bullish upgrade by BofA on Apple shares is the only relevant headline that I can allude to in helping to push US futures higher in the past hour. S&P 500 futures are now up 0.3% with Nasdaq futures up 0.7%, while Dow futures are flat. So, that sort of gives you an idea of where the gains are coming from.

Apple shares are up nearly 2% in pre-market trading and that seems to be lighting up the tech space and equities sentiment ahead of US trading later. That being said, just be wary that action in the bond market could still make things a little messier later in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones remained under pressure as
the market continued to reprice the aggressive rate cuts expectations following
Fed’s Waller
comments. Moreover, the economic data surprised once again to the upside with
the US Retail Sales beating
expectations across the board and Industrial Production edging
up. Overall, the soft-landing narrative is still intact but in the short term
the market is readjusting to tighter monetary conditions.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones fell
below the red 21 moving average as the
bearish momentum continues to weigh on the market. We can also see that the
recent upside price action has been diverging with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the 37066 level,
while a break below it would confirm a reversal.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the divergence with the MACD and the recent pullback from the all-time
high. The buyers should step in around the 37066 level with a defined risk
below it to position for another rally into a new all-time high. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 36030 level.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a resistance zone
around the 37400 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If
the price were to pull back into that resistance, we can expect the sellers to
step in to position for a drop into the 37066 level and target a break below
it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher
to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new
all-time high.

Upcoming Events

Today, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

A rebound in Chinese stocks and a slight softness in the dollar is helping to keep AUD/USD higher so far today, even with a rather poor Australian jobs report earlier here. The currency pair is up 0.3% to 0.6565, also assisted by a technical bounce off its December low:

However, the pair is now caught in a bit of a technical box in between its 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages. The former is at 0.6513 with the latter at 0.6580 and that provides two key lines in the sand for buyers and sellers to work with respectively.

To continue the downside momentum, sellers will have to chase a break below the December low of 0.6525 and then the 100-day moving average at 0.6513. Meanwhile, to reverse the momentum, buyers will have to push for a break back above the 200-day moving average at 0.6580 currently.

So, that offers up a range for the pair to do some pushing and pulling before figuring out what the next move is.

The near-term chart dictates that sellers are still in control but the daily chart as seen above, looks to be taking precedent on price action importance. The aussie might be looking steadier so far today on the factors mentioned but it is now up to buyers and sellers to prove their mettle in the technical battle above.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar is trading a little mixed but not much changed overall, after being slightly lower earlier in the day. EUR/USD moved up to 1.0905 before keeping flattish around 1.0888 now while USD/JPY fell to a low of 147.65 before recovering to 147.91 at the moment. In my view, the lack of impetus has much to do with some indecision in the bond market for now:

10-year yields in the US broke above 4.10% after the retail sales data yesterday but there has been a lack of follow through after. Yields are down 2.5 bps today to 4.079% and more importantly, nudging back below the 200-day moving average (blue line) of 4.084%. I would say that is sort of keeping broader markets on edge in trading today.

Major currencies are not really doing a whole lot across the board while equities are also looking fairly tentative for the time being. European stocks are slightly higher but it comes after the heavy losses from earlier this week, while S&P 500 futures are up just 0.1%. So, that is not really helping to give traders much to work with.

Coming up later, we will have the US weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index. Those are minor releases but could offer an excuse for traders to act upon. Otherwise, the lack of any inspiration as seen so far today is not really providing traders with much conviction.

The bond market especially is the one to watch as traders are watching to see if yields will keep the break of the key technical level above or if yesterday’s reaction will be faded. That is sort of where we are at now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the S&P 500 remained under pressure
as the market continued to reprice the aggressive rate cuts expectations
following Fed’s Waller
comments. Moreover, the economic data surprised once again to the upside with
the US Retail Sales beating
expectations across the board and Industrial Production edging
up. Overall, the soft-landing narrative is still intact but in the short term
the market is readjusting to tighter monetary conditions.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500
fell again below the red 21 moving average as the
bearish pressure remains strong. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the support at 4700.
If the price breaks right through it, the sellers will increase the bearish
bets into the 4547 level.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price was diverging with
the MACD right
at the all-time high. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. The target for the pullback should be right
around the support zone at the 4700 level where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. This
is where the buyers should step in with a defined risk below the zone and
target a new all-time high.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the current price action and we can see that we have a minor trendline
defining the current bearish momentum. The sellers should lean around the
trendline to position for a break below the support and target the 4547 level.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time
high.

Upcoming Events

Today, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.