As such, they are maintaining their outlook for the Fed to cut by 50 bps in November before closing things out with a 25 bps cut in December. The latter is changed as Citi did previously expect the Fed to go by 25 bps yesterday before moving by 50 bps in November and December. But the total in terms of how much the Fed is cutting remains the same.

“Powell noted a number of times that today’s 50bp cut is a “commitment” to not get behind the curve which suggests the bar for further large rate reductions is very low. We continue to see risks as balanced toward a more rapid softening of labor market data and a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.

The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.

What’s important is that
the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should lead to better growth
expectations and support the stock market.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now back at the key 20000 level. The sellers will likely
lean on the level to position for a drop into the major trendline.
The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. If we get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to
position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to
increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the whipsaw on the Fed’s decision
and then the rally overnight. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dips, while the sellers will wait
for a bearish catalyst or a break below the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Yesterday, the Fed finally started its easing cycle and decided to do it with a 50 bps
cut. The market was already leaning towards a 50 bps move, so it wasn’t a
surprise.

The larger cut was framed
as kind of an “insurance” cut with the dot plot showing two more 25 bps cuts by
the end of the year and less than the market expected in 2025.

What’s important is that
the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should lead to better growth
expectations and support the stock market.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 after some short-term noise after the FOMC decision,
rallied to a new all-time high. The buyers will now keep on buying the dips as
long as the data continues to remain benign or, even better, improves.

This is
not a market for the sellers, so they might want to wait for key breaks on the
lower timeframes or better yet for recessionary catalysts before piling in.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline
defining the current bullish momentum. We can expect the buyers to keep leaning
on the trendline to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a
break lower to pile in for more downside.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the whipsaw on the Fed’s decision
and then the rally overnight. There’s not much else we can glean from this
timeframe as the buyers will look to buy the dips, while the sellers will wait
for a bearish catalyst or a break below the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which is the last important
economic release of the week.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Cable nudges up to 1.3200 after sticky UK inflation data
• UK inflation data bolsters odds of BOE keeping bank rate unchanged tomorrow
• What are the main events for today?
• There will be disappointment one way or another come the end of today
• ECB’s Villeroy says likely to continue with rate cuts
• UK August CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y expected
• Eurozone August final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 13 September +14.2% vs +1.4% prior
• Japan maintains economic assessment in latest monthly report

Markets:

• NZD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 2.8 bps to 3.677%
• Gold up 0.4% to $2,578.75
• WTI crude down 0.9% to $69.22
• Bitcoin down 0.7% to $59,913

It’s all about the countdown to the Fed and we’re seeing some mixed moves in markets ahead of the main event later.

The dollar is weaker across the board and that despite Treasury yields holding up on the session. USD/JPY remains pinned down since Asia trading, keeping around 141.60-80 levels mostly during the session.

UK inflation data was the main highlight and that helped to prop up sterling a little bit. Services inflation remains a problem for the BOE and that increased odds of the central bank standing pat tomorrow. GBP/USD moved up from 1.3160 to just above 1.3200 currently.

Besides that, the greenback held slightly softer across the board with the antipodeans gaining some modest traction. AUD/USD is up 0.5% to 0.6785 while NZD/USD is up 0.7% to 0.6225 on the day.

That comes even as US futures are keeping more pensive, while European indices are looking rather sluggish. On the latter, perhaps investors are taking on a more cautious approach as the Fed decision will come after the European close.

Tick tock, tick tock. The end of the FOMC meeting can’t come soon enough.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.4%
• Market index 266.8 vs 233.7 prior
• Purchase index 146.1 vs 138.6 prior
• Refinance index 941.4 vs 757.8 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.15% vs 6.29% prior

A further drop in the average rate of the most popular US home loan sparked a big jump in refinancing activity in the past week. And that led to the surge in mortgage applications, also helped by a slight bump in purchases activity. Recovery time?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Heavy is the head that wears the crown. The Fed has a very, very big decision to make today. A rate cut is all but confirmed but the major question is by how much? They’ve been suggesting a likelihood of moving by 25 bps since Jackson Hole but market players aren’t listening all too intently. Even if that is what is „expected“ according to estimates from economists, traders are still pricing in considerable odds of a 50 bps move.

So, what will the Fed do later today?

Either way, someone, somewhere is bound to get disappointed. And as is the case when such emotion seeps into markets, expect there to be plenty in the reaction and some significant moves in the aftermath.

The case for moving by 25 bps has been one that Fed policymakers have been outlining since Jackson Hole. The disinflation process is starting to take hold but still moving rather gradually. And there is some softening in labour market conditions but it still largely fits with their soft landing narrative.

So, why the need to push for a 50 bps move?

Well, this is very much markets trying to signal to the Fed they are behind the curve and get policymakers to do their bidding. They tried kicking and screaming in early August and that didn’t work. So, there is a tail risk the carry trade unwind episode could reemerge if the Fed does disappoint certain quarters in the market.

Fed watcher Timiraos contributed to the indecisiveness in markets with his piece last week here. And he added more colour to things yesterday here.

The case in point for a 50 bps move is that the Fed might feel more comfortable in starting off with a bit of a bigger move.

For one, it’ll alleviate suggestions that they are behind the curve and need to do more. Secondly, if economic data is to worsen in the weeks ahead, they’ve at least shown that they are trying to address that in a prompter manner. That as opposed to moving by 25 bps and then not providing much hints about the next move in November.

Nonetheless, the Fed has plenty of ammunition still in the tank. So, to say that they’ve missed the boat in not moving by 50 bps today and that it is all doom and gloom would be misplaced.

I mean, let’s be real. Labour market conditions in the US have shown signs of cooling with some noticeable hiccups or two recently. But other economic data are not screaming out for a significant downturn or recession. As such, a soft landing scenario is still very much valid by all accounts.

If the Fed does stick to its guns, I reckon there will be plenty of kicking and screaming before the week is over. But even if they do make a decision to try and pacify markets, there will be discontent but perhaps not as much given the current pricing. If anything, it’ll be dollar bulls that will be cursing their luck in thinking that the Fed has the cojones to step up when it matters.

But we’ll see what they do later on in the day. Either way, there will be disappointment no matter what the outcome is.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview

Yesterday, we got some more
positive US data releases as the US retail sales came out a touch better than
expected and the industrial production data beat forecasts erasing the
hurricane related weakness in July.

Despite that, the market is
still pricing a 63% probability for a 50 bps cut at today’s decision. What’s
more important is that the Fed is cutting into a resilient economy which should
lead to better growth expectations and support the stock market.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 eventually rallied back above the major trendline and extended the gains into the
previous high around the 2250 level. The next target for the buyers should be
the 2300 level where we can expect the sellers to step in to position for a
drop back into the trendline.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a very strong rally from the lows as the market looks forward
to the Fed rate cuts and the pickup in economic activity. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the 2185 support
zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower
to pile in for a drop into the 2120 level.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have upward minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The
buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new highs, while the
sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into
the 2185 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the FOMC rate decision, while tomorrow we get the latest US
jobless claims figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

A lot of Hezballah pagers blew up yesterday but what will it do to the oil market? Some people thought oil might surge but the chart and price action does not care about what we think. Here is oil technical analysis I see but please do your own research and trade at your own risk.

Oil Technical Analysis: Failed Breakout and Market Sentiment Shift

The oil market has recently experienced significant volatility, as illustrated in the Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) chart. Traders were caught off guard by a failed breakout and a subsequent bearish momentum, which reflects a shift in market sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of the key technical events unfolding.

Failed Breakout and Bull Trap

The chart shows a failed breakout from a bull flag pattern, a bearish signal that typically indicates a reversal in price momentum. After an attempted breakout above the upper resistance, bulls were trapped with the breakout proving short-lived. This led to a swift price reversal, disappointing those who were expecting further upward movement.

The contract rollover to the November futures (CLX2024) adds another layer of complexity to this technical setup. As the contract switched, bullish traders were trapped in their positions, unable to capitalize on expected gains. This failure often creates a scenario where traders rush to close long positions, fueling bearish pressure.

Downward Price Channel

Since mid-August, oil prices have been trending within a descending channel. This sustained downtrend is highlighted by lower highs and lower lows, indicating that bears are currently in control of the market. The recent failed breakout attempt suggests that the downward pressure remains strong, with bulls unable to break free from the prevailing bearish momentum.

At the time of writing, oil prices are hovering around $68.85, representing a 3.29% decline. The failed breakout at $71.19 marked the peak of this brief rally attempt, but the market quickly reversed, confirming resistance at this level.

Bears in Control: Gap Down Confirms Sentiment

The most recent action saw bears taking advantage of a gap down, further solidifying their hold on the market. This gap reinforces the bearish sentiment, with the price now struggling to maintain a foothold around the $68-$69 range. Given the failure to maintain support above $71, traders may expect additional downside movement, potentially targeting previous lows around $65.27.

Moving Forward: Key Levels to Watch

• Resistance at $71.19: The failed breakout and subsequent bearish action confirm this as a key resistance level. Any future upward attempts will need to decisively clear this level to regain bullish momentum.

• Support at $68.85: The current price is testing this support zone. A break below could open the door for further downside, with the next major support seen near $65.27.

• $65.27 Support Level: This represents a critical psychological level that, if broken, could accelerate the downward trend in the oil market.

Conclusion: Bearish Outlook Continues

With the failed breakout from the bull flag pattern and a significant bearish gap down, the current outlook for Light Crude Oil Futures remains bearish. Bulls are struggling to regain control, and until they can break above the key resistance at $71.19, the downward trend will likely persist.

Traders should watch for further downside tests of the support levels mentioned, and any bounce attempts should be monitored for potential short-term trading opportunities.

In this environment, risk management is crucial, as the market remains highly volatile and prone to sudden shifts, particularly with contract rollovers and macroeconomic factors influencing oil prices.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Will the US retail sales later mess up the Fed odds even more?
• Dollar holds lightly changed on the day
• Gold rally stalls as traders wait on Fed decision
• Germany September ZEW survey current conditions -84.5 vs -80.0 expected
• European indices hold higher to start the day
• What are the main events for today?
• Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading
• FX option expiries for 17 September 10am New York cut
• A light one on the agenda in Europe today
• The bond market stays in focus in run up to the Fed tomorrow
• New Zealand Treasury see more positive data, but no firm sign of a recovery just yet

Markets:

• AUD leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.24%
• US 10-year yields flat at
  3.618%
• Gold
  down 0.29% to $2,575
• WTI
  crude up 0.20% to $70.23
• Bitcoin
  up 1.49% to $59,069

It’s been a
quiet session with no major news releases. The only economic report was the
German ZEW which missed expectations by a big margin.

In the
markets, the mood is tentatively positive as risk assets continue to gain as we
head into the FOMC decision tomorrow. The probability for a 50 bps cut stands
now around 65%.

In the
American session, we get the US Retail Sales and the US Industrial Production
data. If we get weak readings, then the market will likely seal the 50 bps cut
with a 70%+ probability. In case the data comes out strong though, it’s
unlikely that we will see much change in the pricing although we should get closer to a 50/50 chance.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Last month, July retail sales nudged up by 1.0% and beat estimates here. Ten out of the thirteen categories showed an increase, so that helped. But this time around, the estimate is for headline retail sales to show a 0.2% decline. That said, ex-autos is estimated to increase by 0.2% and the more important control group is expected to be higher by 0.3% again.

The hurdle doesn’t seem too high but spending might cool a little after the hotter-than-expected July performance. That especially as we are starting to build towards the holiday spending spree in the months ahead.

In any case, it’s not so much about the details of the data at this point. This is a market that is currently trending high on emotions ever since the whole carry trade fiasco at the end of July and start of August.

And in pricing in higher odds of a 50 bps move by the Fed since last week, it looks like traders are very much caught in that again.

As such, I would argue that the risks are asymmetric when it comes to the US retail sales today.

If the report is a poor one, it would just serve to exacerbate calls for a 50 bps rate cut tomorrow. That considering market players are wanting to try and force that on the Fed, or so it would seem.

But if the report is relatively in line with estimates and even perhaps showing that spending is doing fine, markets are likely to take that as a „carry on as you will“ message. There might be some minor adjustments to the current pricing in favour of 25 bps but surely we won’t go as far as to pricing out the possibility of a 50 bps move.

Timiraos‘ report last week certainly threw a curveball to markets. The Fed communique since Jackson Hole has been siding with a 25 bps move. But then now, traders have had to rethink whether 50 bps should still be in the picture.

And when you give traders an inch, they’ll happily take a mile. Even more so if they can lean on the data to back that up.

Either way, a poor report today will certainly make things very, very interesting going into tomorrow. That especially given the current market pricing. It will make this one of the most anticipated and watched Fed meetings in recent times.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.