<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-us-services-pmi-492-vs-450-expected-20220923/“>S&P Global US services PMI 49.2 vs 45.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-july-retail-sales-25-vs-20-expected-20220923/“>Canada July retail sales -2.5% vs -2.0% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snbs-jordan-further-rates-cannot-be-ruled-out-ready-to-be-active-in-fx-20220923/“>SNB’s Jordan: Further rates cannot be ruled out. Ready to be active in FX</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-continue-to-deal-with-a-unique-economic-disruption-20220923/“>Powell: We continue to deal with a unique economic disruption</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-chencellor-kwarteng-i-think-its-a-very-good-day-for-the-uk-20220923/“>UK Chencellor Kwarteng: I think it’s a very good day for the UK</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-hurricane-is-likely-to-hit-florida-next-week-20220923/“>A hurricane is likely to hit Florida next week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-up-3-in-the-current-week-20220923/“>Baker Hughes oil rigs up 3 in the current week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/italy-heads-to-the-polls-on-sunday-20220923/“>Italy heads to the polls on Sunday</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil down $4.64 to 78.84</li><li>US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.68%</li><li>UK 10-year yields up 33 bps to 3.83%</li><li>Gold down $27 to $1643</li><li>S&P 500 down 1.7%</li><li>USD leads, GBP lags (badly)</li></ul><p>Today’s price action was probably just an extension of the FOMC trade and the growing belief that Powell is going to over-tighten the economy into a recession. But the trigger was in the bond market, specifically UK bonds. UK 5 year notes had their worst day in recorded history, down 50 basis points(!). That came after a round of spending and tax cuts in Kwateng’s budget.</p><p>Coupled with that the pound cratered. It took out 1.10 for the first time since 1985 and then promptly took out 1.09 on a cascade of selling into the London fix. You’d expect a bounce after that but the USD bid was relentless and it fell as low as 1.0840. The 1985 low is now just 300 pips away and there don’t appear to be many buyers.</p><p>Even though EUR/USD fell 150 pips to a new low the euro still managed to put a beating on GBP. The problem for eurozone politicians is that the UK budget demonstrated what will happen to them if they spend too much or energy subsidies or do to much to stimulate growth. That puts them in a horrible predicament. Meanwhile, another 1.4% decline in the euro adds to imported inflation.</p><p>At one point early in the day a strong bid for Treasuries came in. That briefly looked like it could turn the mood and 10-year yields finished lower at 3.68% after touching 3.83%. The front end was also volatile with 2s in a range of 4.11-4.27%. At some point, you’d think there would be enough of a bid for safety to weigh but the bond bulls aren’t exactly stampeding at what’s been a brutal time for risk assets.</p><p>USD/JPY remains a major preoccupation as the game of chicken with the MOF gets underway. The pair added 94 pips today to 143.28. Everyone is eyeing the 145.00 and broad dollar strength makes it more likely that we’ll get back there.</p><p>The commodity currencies suffered as well but — oddly — the declines in AUD and NZD were about double CAD. The loonie has been skidding hard so maybe it’s a catch-up trade but it’s still unusual to see on a day when oil was down 5.4%. Canadian retail sales were also weak today and I think the evidence is mouting for the BOC to pivot.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Monday</p><ul><li>10 am ET Collins </li><li>12 am ET Bostic</li><li>1230 ET Logan</li><li>4 pm ET Mester</li></ul><p>Tuesday</p><ul><li>6:15 am ET Evans</li><li>9:55 am ET Bullard</li><li>8:35 pm ET Daly</li></ul><p>Wednesday</p><ul><li>8:35 am ET Bostic</li><li>10:10 am ET Bullard</li><li>2 pm ET Evans</li></ul><p>Thursday</p><ul><li>1 pm ET Mester</li><li>4:45 ET Daly</li></ul><p>Friday</p><ul><li>9 am ET Brainard</li><li>1230 ET Barkin</li><li>4:15 pm ET Williams</li></ul><p>I’ll be shocked if we only hear from Bullard twice.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The consensus on the Fed — which is something I said yesterday — is that „these morons are going to over-hike us into a recession“.</p><p>I get the sense that the FOMC is so desperate for a ‚win‘ on anything that they’re willing to wreck the economy just so they can live out their Volcker fantasies. </p><p>In any case, here’s a better Fed rant than anything I could write and given what’s happening in markets, this won’t be the last one.</p><blockquote class=“twitter-tweet“ data-partner=“tweetdeck“><p dir=“ltr“ lang=“en“>ICYMI: Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel fired up on <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/HalftimeReport?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>@HalftimeReport</a> over the Fed. We’re going to break it all down on Overtime. Tune in at 4PM ET! <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://t.co/ONe0cqDwcy“>pic.twitter.com/ONe0cqDwcy</a></p>— CNBCOvertime (@CNBCOvertime) <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1573387150338433025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw“>September 23, 2022</a></blockquote>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>The price of Bitcoin has seen two quick $14K declines recently with one in May and one in June. The declines were quick. The market price consolidated after the moves. </p><p>Since June 19, the price has been consolidating between $17592 and $25400. More recently, the price moved up to test a downward sloping trend line. The move did move above the falling 100 day MA (blue line on the chart above) but could not sustain momentum (the trend line instead stalled the rally). Buyers had their shot above the 100 day MA. They failed thanks to the trend line. </p><p>The digital currency has moved back down toward the June low at $17592. The low this week got within $1000 of the low. </p><p>My question is „Are we in for another run to the downside?“</p><p>Given the consolidation, since June 19, the market may be ready. As mentioned as well, the buyers had their shot to take the price above the 100 day MA, but found willing sellers at the trend line. Bearish. </p><p>If the price is to go lower, all bets would be off if the price were to go above the 100 day MA at $21268. That is near the trend line too. With the price at $18664, the risk is somewhat high up to $21268.</p><p> Is there a closer risk level?</p><p>Drilling to the hourly chart below, the highs over the last few days moved above the 200 hour MA on September 21 but failed. Again buyers had their shot and missed. The subsequent highs on September 22 and today found sellers closer to that MA line. </p><p>As a result that MA would be a closer risk level at $19379. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish (stop). That is the risk. </p><p> A lower stop in the short term might be $19084 which is where the 100 hour MA is found. Today, the price moved below that MA and stayed below. That too is bearish and might be a closer risk defining level for traders looking for a quick opportunity.</p><p>Admittedly, those stopped can be triggered on a sneeze in bitcoin, but the idea is „it is time“ The price action is talking to me. </p><p>Hey…. bitcoin is not the easiest to trade, but the technicals are technicals whether looking at Bitcoin, Microsoft, oil or GBPUSD. The chart looks bearish to me with defined risk against either the hourly or daily MA/trend line. The reward on a break to a new 2022 low could see the pair move toward the $11,000 area if the pair gets another head of steam behind it. </p><p>Time will tell but that is what the charts are saying to me. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-continues-to-run-hot-amid-sell-everything-mood-20220923/“>Dollar continues to run hot amid sell everything mood</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-go-back-to-the-regular-scheduled-programming-20220923/“>Markets go back to the regular scheduled programming</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-budget-anything-but-mini-20220923/“>UK budget anything but „mini“</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-finance-minister-says-will-scrap-planned-increase-on-corporation-tax-20220923/“>UK finance minister says will scrap planned increase on corporation tax</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-september-flash-services-pmi-492-vs-500-expected-20220923/“>UK September flash services PMI 49.2 vs 50.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-september-flash-services-pmi-489-vs-490-expected-20220923/“>Eurozone September flash services PMI 48.9 vs 49.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdcny-pushes-past-710-as-yuan-decline-extends-further-20220923/“>USD/CNY pushes past 7.10 as yuan decline extends further</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>USD leads, GBP lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures lower by 1.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 5.5 bps to 3.765%</li><li>Gold down 1.4% to $1,647.13</li><li>WTI crude down 3.5% to $80.61</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.8% to $18,893</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After a frantic but historic day in markets yesterday, we are back to the regular scheduled programming today. It was pretty much a case of buy the dollar, sell everything else in European trading as markets settle down and stick to digesting the post-Fed narrative.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound was a notable mover as it tumbles by 2% at the lows against the dollar, with GBP/USD sliding below 1.1200 to 1.1020 on the day. That came despite the UK announcing its largest amount of tax cuts since 1972, in an effort to bolster the economy. UK rates surged higher but the currency continues to be routed despite the surprise. Emerging market much?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, the dollar is running riot as EUR/USD fell to its lowest in 20 years – down 0.9% to 0.9750. USD/JPY was tentative early on but buyers are feeling a little more confident now, pushing the pair up from 142.20 to near 143.00 on the session.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/CAD is testing waters above 1.3500 while AUD/USD is down 1% on the day to 0.6575 currently with NZD/USD also dropping by 1% to 0.5790 as the rout continues. There’s just no better place than the dollar right now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In other markets, bond yields shot higher after the UK budget announcement with Treasury yields also pulling higher across the curve. As for equities, the pressure continues with European indices selling off heavily and are down over 2% now while US futures are down over 1% ahead of the Wall Street open.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Commodities were not spared the drop with gold down over 1% to $1,647 while WTI crude is down over 3% and looking towards $80 next.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior 37</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s a big miss on estimates as the retail sales index tumbles to its lowest since April. Adding to the worries is that expected sales volume for the October month is seen declining to -13 after the jump in September (+31). With a technical recession already in place, it’s going to be a harrowing winter for the UK economy.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>itcoin has gained 3.8% in the last 24
hours to $19.4K. Quotes have stabilised near the lower bound of the three-month
range. Ethereum gained temporary support after falling below $1300 and is up 6.7% in
24 hours. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>XRP jumped 28% overnight and 66% over the
week to $0.54, posting the highest gain among top-100 cryptocurrencies. There
are rumours that crypto whales have switched from ETH to XRP after the SEC and
Ripple Labs asked the court to speed up hearings for their case.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Other top altcoins are rising between 4.5%
(BNB) and 7.1% (DogeCoin).</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Despite this upward move, the technical
picture does not yet point to a break in the downtrend, and widespread monetary
policy tightening leads us to expect further pressure on markets.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the other hand, we see precious metal
prices rising with a 5% increase in crypto market capitalisation over the past
24 hours. This could be the start of a new trend, where investors are looking
at alternatives as a safe haven for capital due to concerns over the solvency
of countries.</p><p>News background</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the world’s largest
cryptocurrency exchange Binance, said bearish trends are common and healthy for
the crypto market. He said the crypto industry still has room to grow, while
inflation and rising energy prices have drawn attention to cryptocurrencies.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>According to Oklink, the recent drop in
Ethereum resulted from miners‘ activation. Mining pools have dropped almost
17,000 ETH in the last seven days alone.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The final version of the European Draft
Crypto Asset Markets Act (MiCA) equates NFTs with securities. Technically, the
MiCA is still open for amendments, but other reports suggest that the European
Union has finalised the bill’s full text.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As mentioned earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-go-back-to-the-regular-scheduled-programming-20220923/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>, markets are going back to the regular scheduled programming after the major headlines from yesterday. The dollar is up across the board and pushing to fresh highs on the day now with GBP/USD down 1.5% to below 1.1100, even after the UK announced a massive fiscal package to try and bolster growth conditions.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, EUR/USD is down 0.9% to 0.9740 while USD/CAD is up 0.4% to above 1.3500, going in search of a test of its 61.8 Fib retracement level at 1.3651 next:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>AUD/USD is also down 1.1% to 0.6565 as key technical support cracks under the pressure of the surging greenback.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes as markets are returning back to the sell everything mood again, with equities falling further on the day. S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% while European indices are down 1.0% to 1.4% across the board. Meanwhile, bonds are also not spared following the surge higher in UK yields. 10-year Treasury yields are now up 6 bps to 3.765% as the rout from yesterday carries over.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the commodities space, gold is down 0.9% to $1,656.13 while oil is down over 2% to $81.63 at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In total, the measures <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-finance-minister-says-will-scrap-planned-increase-on-corporation-tax-20220923/“ target=“_blank“>announced</a> will amount to £27 billion of tax cuts through the next fiscal year before rising to roughly £45 billion by 2026-27. That’s a huge reach as those tax cuts are the biggest since 1972.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The budget also massively benefits the UK’s wealthiest as the planned increase for corporation tax has been scrapped and bankers‘ bonuses will not be capped. Throw in the fact that those earning millions will also pay the same income tax rate as those on £50k earning, it’s a massive break from tradition for the Tories.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s also that 1% tax cut for the lower-to-middle class too but then again saving 1% on £30k earning is not really the same as compared to saving 5% on £150k and above now, is it? But if anything else, it highlights what the government is really focusing on here and that is to really bolster growth conditions – regardless of the cost (which in this case is £161 billion over 5 years).</p><p>UK bond yields are seeing a massive jump, with 2-year gilt yields up over 30 bps to 3.86% – its biggest daily jump since November 2009:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I think this meme captures very well the sentiment UK financial circles at the moment:</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-top-currency-diplomat-says-that-they-have-intervened-in-the-fx-market-20220922/“>Japan top currency diplomat says that they have intervened in the FX market</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-finance-minister-says-decided-to-intervene-after-examining-overall-trend-20220922/“>Japan finance minister says decided to intervene after examining overall trend</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/historic-moment-for-the-yen-but-is-it-enough-20220922/“>Historic moment for the yen but is it enough?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-down-1-as-japan-intervenes-to-buy-the-yen-for-the-first-time-since-1998-20220922/“>USD/JPY tumbles as Japan intervenes to buy the yen for the first time since 1998</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snb-raises-policy-rate-by-75-bps-to-050-as-expected-20220922/“>SNB raises policy rate by 75 bps to 0.50%, as expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-snb-puts-an-end-to-the-negative-interest-rates-era-20220922/“>Swiss franc weakens as SNB puts an end to the negative interest rates era</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-225-as-expected-20220922/“>BOE raises bank rate by 50 bps to 2.25%, as expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-pare-back-boe-rate-pricing-in-the-aftermath-of-the-policy-decision-20220922/“>Markets pare back BOE rate pricing in the aftermath of the policy decision</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-kuroda-will-patiently-continue-powerful-monetary-easing-20220922/“>BOJ’s Kuroda: Will patiently continue powerful monetary easing</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-kuroda-no-need-to-change-forward-guidance-at-the-moment-20220922/“>BOJ’s Kuroda: No need to change forward guidance at the moment</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-schnabel-we-must-further-increase-interest-rates-20220922/“>ECB’s Schnabel: We must further increase interest rates</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>JPY leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.8 bps to 3.549%</li><li>Gold down 0.2% to $1,670.49</li><li>WTI crude up 1.2% to $83.92</li><li>Bitcoin up 1.1% to $19,140</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>What a wild day this has turned out to be (and we’re not done yet!) as the central bank bonanza this week was upstaged by Japan intervening to prop up the yen for the first time since June 1998.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged and Kuroda delivered the usual snoozefest in his press conference before markets decided to push USD/JPY to fresh cycle highs above 145.00 going into European trading. The high touched 145.89 before it all came crashing down as Japan announced that they have intervened in the FX market to buy the yen.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY quickly fell to 142.50 before extending that drop to a low of 140.66 in highly volatile trading. There have been big swings in between then and now with the pair holding lower by 1.5% currently at 141.90 at the time of writing.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The retreat in USD/JPY also sparked a decline in the dollar elsewhere with EUR/USD inching up towards 0.9900 before slipping back down to 0.9860 currently. GBP/USD was up to 1.1350-60 early on before seeing gains erased to 1.1280-90 levels now after the BOE raised the bank rate by 50 bps, as anticipated.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The Swiss franc was the other big mover today as it crumbled after the SNB decided to raise its policy rate by 75 bps – meeting expectations but market pricing had it for a 100 bps move. I want to say that the Swiss central bank is also trying to smooth out the franc appreciation and this was the best time to have done that.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/CHF is up nearly 2% in a surge higher from 0.9470 to 0.9680 now with the high earlier touching 0.9715. USD/CHF is also up 1.6% to 0.9815 at the moment with the earlier high touching 0.9851 – testing key technical resistance as outlined <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-snb-puts-an-end-to-the-negative-interest-rates-era-20220922/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, equities were taken for a ride with early losses in US futures turning into gains before being erased again now as we look towards the open in Wall Street. European indices are down markedly as they are playing catch up to the post-FOMC declines in US stocks yesterday.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But for the time being, the FX market is stealing the spotlight after a historic day in which Japan decided to take action to defend the yen currency for the first time in over 24 years.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.