<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The split in votes is one thing but with the fact that they are hinting at peak inflation coming in lower while offering up a maybe on tightening aggressively, it’s not exactly what the hawkish camp had hoped for. All of that covered <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-225-as-expected-20220922/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>And when you throw in the fact that market pricing did look for 75 bps and the BOE „only“ delivered 50 bps as per economists‘ expectations, it’s enough to dial back some of the future pricing for BOE tightening.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Coming into the decision, the OIS market had fully priced the bank rate to be at 3% by November. That has now dropped to pricing in ~75% odds of 2.75% instead now. Adding to that, there have been consistent pullbacks for the 2023 meeting dates for the BOE by roughly 25 bps across the curve as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The pound dropped from 1.1350 to 1.1280 initially before holding around 1.1300 now against the dollar. It’s not much of a sizable reaction as compared to the Swiss franc but the decision today will do little in terms of helping cable sustain any mildly positive momentum against the dollar if you compare this to how the Fed was yesterday.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-raises-bank-rate-by-50-bps-to-175-as-expected-20220804/“ target=“_blank“>Prior</a> 1.75%</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Bank rate vote 9-0* vs 9-0 expected (*Haskel, Mann, Ramsden voted for 75 bps, Dhingra voted for 25 bps)</li><li>Sterling has depreciated materially since August</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Uncertainty around the outlook for UK retail energy prices has fallen after government’s energy support plan</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Consumer spending is likely to have peaked in this quarter</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Peak inflation is now likely to be lower than projected in August, at just under 11% in October</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Policy is not on a pre-set path</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, BOE will respond forcefully, as necessary</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/september-2022″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>Full statement</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There’s a bit of give and take in the latest policy decision by the BOE here. The split in votes obviously don’t help to give markets a sense of confidence on their resolve to tighten aggressively. Add that to the fact that market pricing had considered a 75 bps rate hike but we only got 50 bps, as per what economists expected.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But the good news comes from the fact that the BOE is offering up a more optimistic outlook on inflation. As for economic activity, they see Q3 GDP as being -0.1% q/q and that will infer a technical recession in the UK. But on the balance of things, the brighter inflation outlook perhaps matters more as they view peak inflation to be lower now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Besides that, there is a subtle change to the forward guidance, which I would perceive to be offering them flexibility to act less aggressively i.e. move back to 25 bps rate hikes. In August, they noted that:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“The Committee will be particularly alert to indications of more persistent inflationary pressures, and will if necessary act forcefully in response.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Today, the statement reads:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>“Should the outlook suggest more persistent inflationary pressures, including from stronger demand, the Committee will respond forcefully, as necessary.“</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It ties to their peak <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ target=“_blank“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_5″ class=“terms__main-term“>inflation</a> view coming lower and while it’s no major change in policy stance, it is a subtle one as the words should and suggest do give them some leeway to work with moving forward.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The backlash against the swissie is continuing to play out in the aftermath of the SNB policy decision earlier today. The Swiss central bank hiked its policy rate by 75 bps, as expected, but markets had sought to price in a 100 bps move going into the decision.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That saw a quick surge lower in the franc, with EUR/CHF moving up from 0.9470 to 0.9600 before pulling higher now to 0.9700. After the BOJ, one has to wonder if the SNB also has a part to do with the latest move in the market today as the franc falls to its lowest since 12 September against the euro.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Now, after their policy shift in June, the SNB has been a key driver for the franc appreciation over the past few months in a fall from 1.0500 at the time to 0.9500 this week. One can argue that perhaps there is some scope for a retracement but on the balance of things, the landscape for EUR/CHF hasn’t changed.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The question now is whether the SNB will keep following up on more aggressive rate hikes and I would point to their higher inflation forecasts today as being a suggestion that the likelihood remains high.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Suzuki (Japan’s finance minister):</p><ul><li>Will not comment on the size of intervention</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Will not say if this was solo or a „concerted intervention“; latter is difficult to define</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Have explained Japan’s FX concern to other G7 countries since last year</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Intervention cannot be tied to specific currency level, will watch overall trend</li><li style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>FX moves today were rapid, no hints about what level would trigger intervention</li></ul><p>Kanda (Japan’s top currency diplomat):</p><ul><li>Never thought about levels in deciding intervention</li><li>Will not disclose if there were any exchanges with other countries</li><li>Action can be taken any day, any time, including on holidays</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I don’t see how after a 26% decline this year, suddenly they see today’s moves as being one that is „over the line“. It is clear that the 145.00 mark was a trigger point but for their own sake and effectiveness of the intervention, they cannot admit that. But what is also clear is that they are more focused on the pace of the decline in the yen, rather than any specific level perhaps.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>I mean after the Fed was more hawkish and BOJ did nothing again, the amplification of policy divergence and traders pushing past 145.00 earlier might have triggered a quick push towards 150.00 potentially.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Instead, USD/JPY stumbled from 145.80 to a low of 140.66 earlier but is now trading back up to 143.33 as the volatility swings continue. The big picture outlook is still intact despite the drop today, with the pair holding above 140.00 for now – providing a base for buyers to keep angling towards 145.00, albeit perhaps with less conviction in the near-term.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>European leaders are playing down Putin’s announcement, calling it „desperation“ or a signal that Russia’s plans against Ukraine have been „unsuccessful“. I wouldn’t point that as being a key reason for market sentiment turning around but some words of comfort and reassurance can never hurt. In any case, equities are seeing a decent turnaround now with European indices pulling higher alongside US futures on the day.</p><ul><li>Eurostoxx +0.3%</li><li>DAX flat</li><li>CAC 40 +0.2%</li><li>UK FTSE +0.6%</li><li>S&P 500 futures +0.3%</li><li>Nasdaq futures +0.2%</li><li>Dow futures +0.3%</li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There is just one significant one to take note, as highlighted in bold.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, with the euro coming under pressure after Putin’s announcement on partial mobilisation earlier, the parity level isn’t so much at play. But even if it was, it’ll likely act as a cap on price action ahead of the Fed later in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>However, just take note that there will be a significantly large chunk rolling off tomorrow and on Friday as well at parity for EUR/USD – particularly the former. That might be a factor depending on the post-market reaction to the Fed.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/education/!/forexlive-education-option-contracts-their-impact-and-how-to-trade-off-them-20161116″ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-up-against-the-apex-20220920/“>Dollar up against the apex?</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bonds-stay-under-pressure-with-the-fed-in-focus-20220920/“>Bonds stay under pressure with the Fed in focus</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-see-bright-start-fade-as-the-push-and-pull-continues-20220920/“>Equities see bright start fade as the push and pull continues</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-august-producer-prices-79-vs-16-mm-expected-20220920/“>Germany August producer prices +7.9% vs +1.6% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-july-current-account-balance-199-billion-vs-42-billion-prior-20220920/“>Eurozone July current account balance -€19.9 billion vs €4.2 billion prior</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>GBP leads, NZD lags on the day</li><li>European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 6.2 bps to 3.549%</li><li>Gold down 0.4% to $1,668.43</li><li>WTI crude up 0.1% to $85.80</li><li>Bitcoin down 1.7% to $19,200</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The push and pull ahead of the Fed continues as we see the dollar keep a firmer hand on the day while equities saw a decent start vanquished and bond yields continued to push higher in the run up to the central bank bonanza this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In terms of data, German producer prices saw a record monthly and yearly increase in August as surging cost pressures continue to build in Europe’s largest economy. That won’t provide much comfort with July’s current account coming in at a major deficit – the widest since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But trading sentiment continues to revolve around the countdown to the FOMC meeting tomorrow with the greenback firming slightly as EUR/USD nudged lower from 1.0030 to 0.9995, though keeping close to parity with a host of large option expiries at the figure level in the coming days.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/JPY maintained a slight advance around 143.50-70 levels as bond yields continue to push higher across the board. Meanwhile, the pound is somewhat steady, trading little changed around 1.1430 on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As equities retreated after a bright start, commodity currencies are also dragged lower with USD/CAD inching up towards 1.3300 and AUD/USD running into support near 0.6700 once again. The kiwi is bearing the brunt of the declines with NZD/USD sliding by nearly 1% on the day now close to 0.5900.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Putting it all together, it looks like markets are still unable to find a clear path as we await the Fed decision tomorrow to really provide traders and investors with much more conviction for the second-half of the week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p>Today’s S&P Technical Analysis and Trade Idea</p><p>Attempting to target a Long as price might have pierced (down) the 3900 round number and looks like is back testing a previous price range of a potential accumulation zone.</p><ul><li>1st of 4 buy orders is at 3896. See the video below for the other orders, stop loss and take profit target</li><li>Reward vs risk 1.7x. Target a 2.82% gain on the upside and risk 1.65% on the downside</li><li>Take 50% off the Long position if the target is reached, and raise the stop to the entry </li><li>Watch the S&P technical analysis video below and trade at your own risk</li></ul>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The early gains have evaporated and equities have tilted lower in European morning trade. S&P 500 futures are now down 12 points, or 0.3%, holding near the lows for the day while European indices have also nudged lower. The DAX is down 0.6%, CAC 40 down 0.7%, and UK FTSE down 0.1% upon returning from the long weekend.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is keeping the pressure on commodity currencies with the dollar holding firmer alongside higher Treasury yields today. That said, we’re still sitting in the confines of key technical levels as mentioned <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-up-against-the-apex-20220920/“ target=“_blank“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<ul><li>2-year Treasury yields +2.2 bps to 3.968%</li><li>5-year Treasury yields +1.6 bps to 3.709%</li><li>10-year Treasury yields +2.9 bps to 3.518%</li><li>30-year Treasury yields +3.8 bps to 3.543%</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It looks like the rates market is still siding with a more hawkish Fed ahead of the main event tomorrow. Yields are continuing to push higher on the week with 2-year Treasury yields hitting 3.97% – its highest since November 2007. The dollar didn’t take much cue from bonds yesterday but is looking steadier so far today with USD/JPY also up 0.3% to 143.65 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The Fed remains the driving force for the next key move but with markets already inching towards 4% rates, it will take some added convincing from Powell & co. to drive another push higher surely – same might be said for the dollar as well.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.