<ul><li>The latest inflation news is welcome but the Fed still hasn’t made enough progress</li><li>A weaker jobs report in March unlikely to change the monetary policy outlook</li><li>Plethora of surprises make it hard to predict what US central bank will do at the May meeting</li></ul><p>We’re going to hear from the Fed’s Williams shortly.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The US dollar is stronger head of the key core PCE data that will be released at 8:30 AM. The US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data is a comprehensive measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the United States. It is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and serves as a key indicator of overall economic activity, consumer behavior, and inflation trends. The PCE data is also the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for assessing inflation, as it captures a broader range of expenditures and is less volatile compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The expectations is for core PCE to show and increase of 0.4% versus 0.6% last month. The year on year is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%. Last month the year on year for the headline PCE came in at 5.4% (up 0.6% month-to-month). Personal income and personal consumption will also be released with the PCE data at 8:30 AM ET. Consumption is expected to increase by 0.3% while income is expected to increase by 0.2% for the month of February</p><p>In addition to the PC data, the University of Michigan sentiment for March will be released with expectations of a dip to 63.2 from 63.4 in the preliminary estimate. That was less than the 67.0 last month. The one year inflation estimate dipped to 3.8% from 4.1% in the preliminary report</p><p>Flash CPI data out of the Eurozone was released earlier today with the YoY falling sharply to 6.9% from 8.5%, and below its expectations of a 7.1%. Not as positive was that the core CPI flash came in at 5.7% versus 5.6% last month German retail sales were weaker than expected -1.3% versus 0.5% expected. The unemployment rate in the EU remained steady at 6.6%.</p><p>US rates are mixed with the yield curve flattening. The two-year is higher while the 10 year is trading marginally lower. US stocks are mixed/little changed.</p><p>A snapshot of the market is currently showing:</p><ul><li>spot gold is up $0.81 or 0.04% at $1981.25.</li><li>Spot silver is up four cents or 0.18% at $23.93. </li><li>WTI crude oil is trading up $0.58 at $74.95</li><li>Bitcoin is trading just below the 28,000 level at $27,966 the price has been consolidating between $26,541 and $29,380 since the March 17 break higher. </li></ul><p>In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are marginally higher as the first quarter comes to an end. The NASDAQ index is leading the way this quarter with a gain of 14.78% this quarter. The Dow Industrial Average is marginally lower at -0.87%, while the S&amp;P index is up 5.5%. </p><ul><li>Dow industrial average is up 79 points after yesterday’s 141.43 point rise</li><li>S&amp;P index is up 9.5 points after yesterday’s 23.02 point rise</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 5.8 points after yesterday’s 87.24 point rise</li></ul><p>In the European equity markets, the major indices are higher:</p><ul><li>German DAX +0.47%. For the quarter the index is up 12.0%</li><li>Frances CAC +0.55%. For the quarter the index is up 12.81%</li><li>UK’s FTSE 100 +0.25%. For the quarter the index is up 2.51%</li><li>Spain’s Ibex +0.32%. The index is up 12.24% for the first quarter</li></ul><p>in the US debt market, the yields are mixed with the shorter end higher and the longer end lower (yield curve flatter):</p><p>In the quarter the two year yield is down 27.5 basis points. It traded as low as -87 pips this quarter. The 10 year yield is down -33.5 basis points after being down as much as -59.3 basis points.</p><p>In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower. The UK 10 year yield is higher:</p><p>For the first quarter:</p><ul><li>German 10 year yield is down -21.6 basis points. It was down as much as -65 basis points</li><li>UK 10 year is down -12 basis points. It was down as much as a 68.5 basis points.</li><li>Frances 10 year is down -24.5 basis points. It was down as much as -71.9 basis points.</li><li>Italy’s 10 year is down -54.5 basis points. It was down as much as – 103 basis points</li><li>Spain’s 10 year is down -28.8 basis points. It was down as much as -75 basis points.</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-preliminary-cpi-69-vs-71-yy-expected-20230331/“>Eurozone March preliminary CPI +6.9% vs +7.1% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-dip-after-eurozone-inflation-data-20230331/“>Bond yields dip after Eurozone inflation data</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/and-bond-yields-climb-back-higher-after-the-dip-20230331/“>And.. bond yields climb back higher after the dip</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-march-preliminary-cpi-56-vs-55-yy-expected-20230331/“>France March preliminary CPI +5.6% vs +5.5% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-february-retail-sales-13-vs-05-mm-expected-20230331/“>Germany February retail sales -1.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-march-unemployment-change-16k-vs-0k-expected-20230331/“>Germany March unemployment change 16k vs 0k expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-february-import-price-index-24-vs-10-mm-expected-20230331/“>Germany February import price index -2.4% vs -1.0% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-q4-final-gdp-01-vs-00-qq-prelim-20230331/“>UK Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% q/q prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-march-nationwide-house-prices-08-vs-03-mm-expected-20230331/“>UK March Nationwide house prices -0.8% vs -0.3% m/m expected</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Markets:</p><ul><li>GBP leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.2%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.541%</li><li>Gold flat at $1,980.83</li><li>WTI crude up 0.6% to $74.94</li><li>Bitcoin down 0.6% to $27,974</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Inflation data was a focus in Europe today as we saw the preliminary figures for March come in for the Eurozone. Headline annual inflation dipped by slightly more than estimated to just under 7%, reflecting its sharpest drop on record. However, core annual inflation ticked higher to a fresh record high in what is a contrasting report of sorts.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The bond market focused on the lower headline figure though, as bond yields dipped and pared its early advance. Short-end yields have come back up slightly but the long-end is basically sitting marginally lower on the day now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That saw USD/JPY fall from a high of 135.50 to sit closer to 133.10 levels at the moment, still up by 0.4% though.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar was steadier throughout, even as equities are seen just a touch higher – after having spent much of the session being little changed.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0875 from around 1.0900 in Asia while GBP/USD is flattish around 1.2380 levels after coming close to test its December and January highs near 1.2446 earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/CAD is seen bouncing off its 100-day moving average to be up 0.2% to 1.3545 while the antipodeans are slightly lower and still rather trapped in trading this week against the dollar mostly.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Month-end and quarter-end will be a focus point before we wrap things up this week, and don’t forget that we also still have the US PCE price index to follow in the session ahead.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily Nasdaq chart below, we
can see that after the selloff in February, the market bounced right at the
61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. The breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the cross to the upside of
the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> were signalling a possible <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>bull
flag</a> in play, but the buyers needed to break the previous swing <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> first to confirm the pattern. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>They did it. The target for the
bull flag looks insane as it stands at the August 2022 high at 13186, but we’ve
seen time after time how the dip buyers managed to push the market up even
though many bad news have been thrown to them, so at this point it wouldn’t be
a surprise anymore. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Nasdaq Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that at the moment the buyers are trying to break the previous swing
resistance at 12020. A break above would open the door for a rally towards the
next resistance at 12274. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The red long period moving average
will act as dynamic support in case we see a pullback. The sellers at this
point will need a break below the 11492 support to regain conviction and target
new lower lows. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the market bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level before
resuming the rally in the original trend. If we get a pullback, a possible
level where the buyers may lean onto is the red long period moving average and
the 11829 support. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily GBPUSD chart below, we can
see that the price has finally reached the top of the range at the 1.24 handle.
This will be a key level for both buyers and sellers. The buyers will need to
break above the level with conviction to keep the rally going. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The sellers are likely to start
piling in here to target a fall towards the bottom of the range at 1.1839 and
beyond. Beware that if this was just a squeeze on dollar longs, the following
rally in the US Dollar will be aggressive.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>GBPUSD Technical Analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that we have a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>rising
wedge</a> right at the top of the range. This is a reversal pattern and we can
also see that we have a big and long <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>divergence</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>. The setup for the sellers looks
incredibly good now. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Generally, the target would be
the bottom of the pattern, which in this case comes at the 1.20 handle. So, the
sellers have a really high reward to risk ratio here. The buyers, on the other
hand, will need to break above the upper <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and the top of the range to
invalidate the selling setup and extend the rally.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the buyers may lean on the 61.8% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level and the trendline before trying to break
above the top of the range. The sellers will want to wait for a break below the
trendline before piling in and extend the fall.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The slight dip earlier came from the Eurozone inflation data <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-march-preliminary-cpi-69-vs-71-yy-expected-20230331/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> but we are seeing yields turn around, similar to yesterday, to climb higher again. 2-year yields in the US are now up over 7 bps to 4.17% while 2-year yields in Germany have also pared the drop to be up 5 bps at 2.79% currently. The latter hit a low of 2.72% after the record drop in euro area headline inflation.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>But as mentioned since yesterday, core inflation remains a big problem and the report earlier highlighted another record high reading in the euro area. That won’t give the ECB much comfort and reaffirms the likelihood that more rate hikes are still to come – something which markets are slowly wrapping their heads around as mentioned earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/markets-are-coming-around-to-the-idea-that-there-will-be-more-rate-hikes-to-come-20230331/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/spain-march-preliminary-cpi-33-vs-38-yy-expected-20230330/“>Spain March preliminary CPI +3.3% vs +3.8% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/north-rhine-westphalia-march-cpi-69-vs-85-yy-prior-20230330/“>North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +6.9% vs +8.5% y/y prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bavaria-march-cpi-72-vs-88-yy-prior-20230330/“>Bavaria March CPI +7.2% vs +8.8% y/y prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/saxony-march-cpi-83-vs-92-yy-prior-20230330/“>Saxony March CPI +8.3% vs +9.2% y/y prior</a></li></ul><p>Initial reaction:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-fall-after-lower-spanish-inflation-numbers-20230330/“>Bond yields fall after lower Spanish inflation numbers</a></li></ul><p>Aftermath:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-nudge-back-a-little-higher-as-traders-push-and-pull-20230330/“>Bond yields nudge back a little higher as traders push and pull</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>CHF leads, USD lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.6%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 0.8 bps to 3.558%</li><li>Gold up 0.2% to $1,968.92</li><li>WTI crude up 0.8% to $73.58</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.9% to $28,637</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There weren’t many headlines in European morning trade today, with the focus staying on inflation numbers from German states and Spain. The early reports led to a fall in bond yields, as headline annual inflation came in softer than February and in the case of Spain, it even came in well below estimates.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That said, the figures do have a very important caveat to them. The spike in oil prices last year due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a big reason for the base effects adjustment to the readings we are seeing in March this year. As such, headline annual inflation may be lower but the core reading remains high.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In the case of Spain, core annual inflation is still sitting at 7.5%, down marginally from the 7.6% reading in February. Meanwhile, the monthly figures all still reflect positive price increases for all German states and in Spain as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The initial market reaction was a decline in yields, with USD/JPY also falling from 132.50 to 132.20 before recovering that drop thereafter as yields rebounded.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar was slightly softer throughout, as equities gradually gained after a flattish handover from Asia. European indices opened higher but are now working their way up, gaining over 1% mostly across the board.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD moved up from 1.0850 to 1.0880 and is sitting just below that while GBP/USD pushed from 1.2320 to 1.2363 before seeing gains ease a little after briefly hitting fresh eight-week highs.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The antipodeans are unable to capitalise too much, being stuck in a bit of a bind in recent weeks, with AUD/USD seen up 0.2% to 0.6695 and NZD/USD up by just 0.1% to 0.6230 on the day currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Going back to the inflation debate, this is the first month in which we will start to see the base effects adjustment come into play. I would argue that the monthly figures are going to be more important moving forward but either way, is this going to prove to be a hopeful turn or a false dawn? Only time will tell.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>European indices are keeping gains near 1% while S&amp;P 500 futures are up 16 points, or 0.4%, and that is helping with the overall mood in markets so far. In turn, the dollar is the laggard but the losses aren’t really too overwhelming. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0860 levels but is in the hunt of a fourth straight day of gains:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The rebound this week comes after the pair tested its 200-hour moving average on Friday last week but in the bigger picture, this is an extension of its rebound from the 100-day moving average (red line) earlier in the month. Buyers will still need to crack key resistance at 1.1000 to really justify a further upside move though, but at least they are keeping the bullish momentum going for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.1% to 132.70 but is at least off its earlier low of 132.20 during the session – which came after the Spanish inflation data <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-fall-after-lower-spanish-inflation-numbers-20230330/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> as bond yields sagged. But as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/bond-yields-nudge-back-a-little-higher-as-traders-push-and-pull-20230330/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>yields are recovering</a>, the pair is also getting a bit of a lift to near unchanged levels on the day currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Then, we have GBP/USD which briefly hit eight-week highs just above 1.2360 though the technical picture remains somewhat confined still as highlighted <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/cable-nears-two-month-high-as-pound-holds-firmer-on-the-day-20230330/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, USD/CAD is slipping further to 1.3530 levels amid higher oil prices with the pair now gyrating towards its 100-day moving average seen at 1.3516 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The antipodeans are sitting a little higher but they aren’t really going anywhere as well with AUD/USD stuck just below its 200-day moving average (blue line) near 0.6700 now after bouncing off its November lows:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>NZD/USD is finding things even more difficult as it is sandwiched between its 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With month-end trading also a key focus point in the sessions ahead, we are still awaiting firmer moves in the dollar to gather more conviction on the next big trending move.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>One of
the most well-known Chinese companies, Alibaba, is about to become six
well-known Chinese companies. The e-commerce giant announced that it is going
to split into six independent units soon – and its stock celebrated this fact
with 14% growth. But when shares show this kind of moonshot, this poses the
question – is it too late to buy them?</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Alibaba
enriched its market value by about $33 bln after investors got the news that
the company would split into six separate firms with their own CEOs and boards.
All the units will be responsible for different lines of business. So, meet the
newbies – Cloud Intelligence Group, Taobao Tmall Commerce Group, Local Services
Group, Cainiao Smart Logistics Group, Global Digital Commerce Group, and
Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Each one of these future companies is
quite capable of becoming public at some time.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>If you
have Alibaba stock in your portfolio, you can probably look at the chart below
till the crack of doom. Although, news and releases from companies are not the
only things that influence the market. They can also be affected by various
economic events planned well in advance. In order to stay on top of these
events and make changes to your portfolio accordingly, you can utilize
different trading tools, such as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/economic-calendar/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>economic
calendar</a> – it shows all the significant events that investors and
traders need to know.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Not all
details about <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/what-stock-split-why-do-stocks-split/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>the future split</a> have been made clear so far,
but many analysts believe that Alibaba papers hold promise. There are two key
factors. Firstly, experts believe that shares may be undervalued now, and the
reorganization will help to re-evaluate every company separately, in a
meaningful way.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Moreover,
comparatively small companies are likely to be more flexible and will be able
to react more quickly to the market, economic, and regulatory changes. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Another
factor is China’s regulatory policy. In the past few years, large Chinese
companies have been under pressure. Large-scale and long-term inspections have
severely besieged the shares of Alibaba, as well as the rest of the Chinese
stock market. But there is hope that this period is coming to an end, taking
with it the Covid-19 restrictions.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Even
after an explosive 14% increase, analysts have outlined an impressive target
price for <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BABA/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Alibaba stock</a>. The consensus forecast is +45%
over the next 12 months. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>But
don’t forget that markets change every week, day, and hour. That’s why you need
to do your own research before every trade. That’s the key to success.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Prior -19.1</li><li>Economic confidence 99.3 vs 99.8 expected</li><li>Prior 99.7; revised to 99.6</li><li>Industrial confidence -0.2 vs 0.2 expected</li><li>Prior 0.5</li><li>Services confidence 9.4 vs 10.3 expected</li><li>Prior 9.5; revised to 9.4</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The drop in economic sentiment owes to a setback in industrial confidence, owing to a drop decline in managers’ production
expectations and to a slight deterioration in their
assessments of the current level of overall order books. Meanwhile, the recovery in consumer confidence also comes to a halt after five months of improvement.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.