<p>US equities were hit hard today and the S&amp;P 500 virtually erased its gains for the year in the second day of selling. Stocks tried to rally early on a higher US unemployment rate but worries about banks led to heavy selling in the latter half of the day as Silicon Valley Bank was taken over by the FDIC.</p><p>There was a big divergence in US indexes as the Russell 2000 was clobbered by heavy exposure to regional banks:</p><p>Daily changes:</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500 -1.45%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -1.7%</li><li>DJIA -1.1%</li><li>Russell 2000 -3.0%</li><li>Toronto TSX -1.6%</li></ul><p>Weekly changes:</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500 -4.5%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -4.7%</li><li>DJIA -4.4%</li><li>Russell 2000 -8.1%</li><li>Toronto TSX -3.9%</li></ul><p>The weekly chart of the S&amp;P 500 still doesn’t look too bad but it will need to hold the late-December lows. Tuesday’s CPI report will go a long way towards determining which way it breaks.</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500 -1.1%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp -2.4%</li><li>Russell 2000 -3.4%</li><li>Toronto TSX -0.7</li></ul>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>What would have to happen for the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 50 bps on March 22?</p><p>First, there would need to be a sublime resolution to the current bank run. That’s not impossible but it’s tough to imagine that the mood could switch so rapidly that the Fed wouldn’t feel bruised or feel that the episode didn’t put downward pressure on the economy.</p><p>Second, CPI would need to be high. How high? The consensus estimates on headline and core are both +0.4% and I’m guessing at least 0.6%.</p><p>Given that, the Fed funds futures market has dropped the implied probability of a 50 bps hike to 28% and that’s from +70% just two days ago. For me, that still sounds too high but you can see why the market would be reeling.</p><p>The point of moving in 25 bps, in Powell’s words, is so the Fed can ‚feel‘ its way ahead. That’s generally via economic data but it’s also based on events like this that show where the risks lie. </p><p>A tougher question is what to do about the dot plot. </p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The price of WTI crude futures are settling at $76.68. That’s up $0.96 or +1.27%</p><p>The low today reach $74.77. The high extended to $77.11. The lower dollar/lower rates help to send the price back to the upside. Other commodities also gained with gold up $36 or 1.99%. Silver was up $0.42 or 2.13%.</p><p>For the trading week, the price is down $-3.10 or -3.87%.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart below, the price highs for the week extended above the 100 day moving average – and closed above – for the first time since November 2022 (it was only for one day then). Like back in November, the price could only close above the 100 day moving average for one single day (Monday). On Tuesday the price moved sharply lower.</p><p>Today’s gains were the first after three days to the downside.</p><p>In the bigger picture, it would take a move above the 100 day moving average (currently at $79.53) and staying above that moving average to give the buyers more control. On the downside, and upward sloping trendline connecting recent lows cuts across at around $73.64</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The mood music seems to be improving in the equities space as we see S&amp;P 500 futures cover losses to be down by just a little over 2 points, or 0.07%, now. For some context, it was down by as much as 36 points earlier in the day as we headed into European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Dow futures are also just down by 0.2% now with Nasdaq futures already in the black, seen up by 0.3% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>With the FX market still looking rather sanguine about the whole SVB situation, it looks like stocks are also starting to turn the corner. Now, all there’s left is the bond market or are they the ones who have gotten the call right on this matter?</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>2-year Treasury yields are still down 8.2 bps to 4.818% while 10-year yields are down 7.4 bps to 3.849%, though both are well off the lows from earlier in the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>When you throw in the US jobs report later, it is going to be really messy for Wall Street trading today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here’s a look at how the last ten months of the data looks like:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-april-non-farm-payrolls-428k-vs-391k-expected-20220506/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>April 2022</a>: +428K vs +391K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-may-nonfarm-payrolls-him-390k-vs-325k-estimate-20220603/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>May 2022</a>: +390K vs +325K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-june-non-farm-payrolls-372k-vs-268k-expected-20220708/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>June 2022</a>: +372K vs +268K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-july-non-farm-payrolls-528k-vs-250k-expected-20220805/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>July 2022</a>: +528K vs +250K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-august-non-farm-payrolls-315k-vs-300k-expected-20220902/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>August 2022</a>: +315K vs +300K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-september-non-farm-payrolls-263k-vs-250k-expected-20221007/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>September 2022</a>: +263K vs +250K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-october-non-farm-payrolls-261k-vs-200k-expected-20221104/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>October 2022</a>: +261K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-november-non-farm-payrolls-263k-vs-200k-expected-20221202/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>November 2022</a>: +263K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-december-non-farm-payrolls-223k-vs-200k-expected-20230106/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>December 2022</a>: +223K vs +200K expected</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>January 2023</a>: +517K vs +185K expected</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>You have to go back all the way to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-march-non-farm-payrolls-431k-vs-490k-expected-20220401/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>March data</a> last year to the last time that the non-farm payrolls figure missed on estimates.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The estimate this time around is for a +205K reading for the month of February, which will reflect a drop from January’s figure of +517K (before any revision).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The stakes are high for this one, especially considering how Fed chair Powell has basically pushed the thought of any firm guidance towards the upcoming data. This will be the first big landmine before we get to the next one in the form of next week’s consumer <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa“ target=“_blank“>inflation</a> report.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as broader markets might be distracted by the whole saga involving SVB since yesterday, let’s not forget that the jobs report today will play an immense role in market pricing ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In that sense, for global markets, this is still a massive economic release to watch out for – even more so considering the kind of build up we are seeing in the past week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price is again approaching the broken <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> that now may act as support for
the buyers. The last bounce stalled at the red long period <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a> and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 4061 where the sellers piled
in and then increased the selling pressure as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ka-powell-20230308/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a> signalled a possible 50 bps hike and a higher
terminal rate. </p><p>Yesterday we got another selloff,
but it’s not yet clear why that happened, although many are attributing it to
problems with a regional <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/why-is-the-market-in-a-full-fledged-flight-to-safety-mode-20230310/“>US
bank</a> that sparked fears of contagion. Anyway, all eyes will be on today’s <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/preview-february-non-farm-payrolls-by-the-numbers-20230309/“>NFP
report</a>. </p><p>In the 4
hour chart below, we can see that after stalling at the resistance at 4061 and
the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, the market sold off pretty aggressively due
to Powell’s comments. The moving averages crossed to the downside and the
sellers leant on the red long period moving average to extend the selloff even
further into the NFP report. </p><p>We now
may get a pullback as some position may be squared ahead of the event. The
moving averages will act as resistance but the direction will most likely be
decided by the data. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that yesterday the price rallied into the downward trendline as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-weekly-initial-jobless-claims-211k-vs-195k-expected-20230309/“>jobless
claims</a> missed expectations and then sold off as the stock market opened. It
could have been just positioning into a strong NFP report or the fear of
contagion due to the regional bank problems. </p><p>Hard to explain. The plan for the
traders seems clear today: if the data beats expectations, we should see the
sellers in control and push the price lower. On the other hand, if the data
misses expectations we may see a rally towards the 4061 resistance. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>After falling below its January lows on Tuesday, GBP/USD looked poised for a further downside move but buyers have been resilient enough to stay in the game as we a turnaround over the past few sessions. And after a slightly better January monthly GDP reading earlier today <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-january-monthly-gdp-03-vs-01-mm-expected-20230310/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>, the pound is starting to move higher in European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD is now on the move back towards 1.2000 with the 100-day moving average (red line) at 1.2014 providing added resistance for the latest rebound. Break above and buyers will start to seize back control of the pair but keep below and sellers will stay interested to try and angle for another downside push.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The final hurdle this week is going to come from the US jobs report at 1330 GMT later in the day. That, considering the dollar – and major currencies in general – are looking rather sanguine to the risks and concerns brought up in broader markets at the moment.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>The crypto
market is suffering impressive losses, mirroring traditional markets flee from
risk, which has mainly hit the financial and tech sectors—total crypto
capitalisation is down 6.5% in the last 24 hours to 930 billion.</p><p>Bitcoin fell
below $20K (-7.9% in the last 24 hours), an emotionally significant level for
the first cryptocurrency. As expected, the drop below $21.5K accelerated the
sell-off. Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-day moving average, which
appears to be the last line of defence on the way to $18K. </p><p>Further
decline in risk-sensitive assets can punish early crypto optimists and raise
questions about whether we are in the ‘crypto spring’. The bulls have technically
oversold, and the fact that markets rarely quickly abandon 200-day MA.</p><p>News Background</p><p>US
authorities have moved to the Coinbase around 10,000 BTCs seized from the Silk
Road darknet marketplace. Market participants fear that the US authorities will
start selling off the bitcoins seized from cybercriminals.</p><p>Another
reason for the decline in the crypto market was the closure of Silvergate Bank.
Previously, there had been rumours that Silvergate Bank might reopen, but
management decided to close the bank and return deposits to customers.</p><p>The head of
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, said that the
agency, not the SEC, should regulate Ethereum and stablecoins because they are
commodities. According to Behnam, he would only have allowed the launch of ETH
futures if he was firmly convinced that it was a commodity. Previously, SEC
chief Gary Gensler argued that all crypto assets except bitcoin are securities.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The slight pushback from Fed chair Powell yesterday may have something to do with it but the flows today are not reflecting a coherent theme when viewed against broader market sentiment. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/equities/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“9c7de710-0fba-425c-93e5-422427b92644″ target=“_blank“>Equities</a> are lower while Treasury yields are mixed, and that is failing to offer much for traders to work with at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is trading at the lows for the day across the board, as the key levels highlighted yesterday are all still in play right now (renamed for relevance):</p><ul class=“text-align-start vertical-align-baseline“><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurusd-nears-a-test-of-key-support-level-as-dollar-stays-poised-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>EUR/USD near its 100-day moving average</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-looks-for-a-more-meaningful-upside-break-on-higher-bond-yields-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>USD/JPY at its 200-day moving average</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/gbpusd-downside-in-focus-after-break-of-january-lows-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>GBP/USD break of January lows but now reverting back to its 200-day moving average</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdchf-looks-for-a-bit-more-of-a-pullback-for-now-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>USD/CHF coming up short at its 100-day moving average?</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdcad-comes-up-for-some-air-boc-in-focus-later-today-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>USD/CAD holds break above 1.3700 post-BOC</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/audusd-in-troubled-waters-after-double-whammy-yesterday-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>AUD/USD hanging on at the 21 November lows</a></li><li class=“vertical-align-baseline“><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/nzdusd-downside-case-in-focus-after-yesterdays-plunge-lower-20230308/“ rel=“follow“ target=“_blank“ class=“article-link vertical-align-baseline“>NZD/USD still under key daily moving averages and 38.2 Fib</a></li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>

It’s hard to really jump in to say that the dollar rally on Tuesday has peaked this week, especially since <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/payrolls-the-only-thing-that-matters-now-towards-the-end-of-the-week-20230309/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>markets are looking to the US jobs report tomorrow</a> as being one of the major hurdles to get through before the FOMC meeting later this month.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>That’s not making it easy to really interpret the moves today I would say. Can Friday come already?</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers defended the 1.07 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and leant on the red long period
<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
average</a>. The big selloff was caused by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/ka-powell-20230308/“>Fed
Chair Powell</a>’s comments regarding the possibility of a 50 bps
hike at the March meeting and the willing to go above the projected terminal
rate in December 2022. The market interpreted this as a more hawkish stance and
the USD rallied across the board. </p><p>The downtrend for the EUR/USD
pair is still intact and the sellers are now eyeing the breakout of the 1.05
handle to target the next <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 1.02. Everything will come
down to the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>NFP report tomorrow</a> where a beat should lead to a
breakout and a bigger selloff and a miss should give the buyers again some
control. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the selloff after Powell led also to a breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> before finding support at the
1.0533 level. The price is now consolidating just below the neckline at 1.0576
of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>double
top</a>.
Generally, once the neckline is broken, the target is the measured move from
the high to the neckline projected to the downside, so in this case it would be
1.0457, but we will need a strong NFP report to get there.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the sellers started to pile in when the violet trendline gave way in
anticipation of the double top working out. Powell’s comments just happened to
increase the momentum a lot and led to the breakout of both the blue trendline
and the neckline. </p><p>Now, the sellers should be
defending the resistance zone at 1.0576 where we can also find the 38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. This little range created between 1.0533
and 1.0576 will define the next move based on the NFP data. Break above on a
miss and the buyers will be in control. Break below on a beat and the sellers
will lead the way. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.