The People’s Bank of China announces the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday,

The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that’s Saturday it’ll be on Monday instead.

Earlier this week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting:

• The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected

When the People’s Bank of China leaves the MLF rate unchanged its often, but not always, a signal that LPRs will remain unchanged.

Current LPR rates are:

• 3.45% for the one year
• 3.95% for the five year

Won’t be cutting this month (is the widely held expectation).

—

The PBOC’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR):

• Its an interest rate benchmark used in China, set by the People’s Bank of China each month.
• The LPR serves as a reference rate for banks when they determine the interest rates for (primarily new) loans issued to their customers.
• Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.
• Its calculated based on the interest rates that a panel of 18 selected commercial banks in China submit daily to the PBOC.
  • The panel consists of both domestic and foreign banks, with different weights assigned to each bank’s contributions based on their size and importance in the Chinese financial system.
  • The LPR is based on the average rates submitted by these panel banks, with the highest and lowest rates excluded to reduce volatility and manipulation. The remaining rates are then ranked, and the median rate becomes the LPR.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expected
• Biden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – report
• Canada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
• Fed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control mission
• Add Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of „It is time to quit Joe“… and more.
• Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could be some time for some to recover
• PBOC: We will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags
• WTI crude oil down $2.53 to $80.29
• US 10-year yields up 5.3 bps to 4.24%
• Gold down $46 to $2399
• S&P 500 down 0.7%

There was no place to hide today as stocks, bonds, commodities and precious metals all fell. The lone exception was bitcoin, which notched an impressive 5% gain, perhaps as the Crowdstrike fiasco highlighted the fragility of the tech ecosystem.

For the rest of the market, it was a deleveraging event with political and economic uncertainty high. That meant selling in everything as the market looks to the Fed blackout and a quieter summer market. Given the turmoil recently, that might be a fanciful hope but the temptation to cash out after a 16% YTD stock market rally is real.

Unlike some other pockets of the market, the FX moves were modest. The dollar weakness early in the week continued to erode with the euro backing away from 1.10 and the pound retreating after briefly breaking 1.30. The later looks something like a break after an extended post-election move.

USD/JPY survived the rout in Wednesday and has steadied itself though was reluctant to push anywhere near 158 today. Yields were a tailwind and the talk about the BOJ refraining from further hikes helped. There is unease about intervention though or whatever the MoF playbook might be.

Commodity currencies present the most-compelling narrative as they slide on deteriorating growth prospects both at home and globally. China hasn’t offered up any change of course hints at the Third Plenum, though there are some hopes for post-even announcements in the coming week or two. Domestically, a poor Canadian retail sales report cemented a rate cut next week and has kicked off talk of a deeper, faster rate-cutting cycle.

Have a wonderful weekend. I’ll be off next week so see you in a couple weeks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The bad news is that it was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April. The good news is that after the sharp correction in April, the market recovered quickly.

Today’s price action was influenced by $2.7 trillion in options expiring including $555 billion in single stocks. It was the largest-ever July month expiration and speaks to the incredible power of the options market at the moment.

Next week we will spin it up again and find some new memes.

• S&P 500 -0.7%
• Nasdaq Comp -0.8%
• DJIA -0.9%
• Russell 2000 -0.6%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.1%

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Global tech outages impact markets at the European open
• Tech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morning
• Microsoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolved
• ECB’s Villeroy: market expectations on rates seem rather reasonable
• ECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on September
• ECB’s Šimkus: I agree with markets which sees two more rate cuts this year
• BOJ bond meeting minutes shows some mixed views on pace of tapering
• UK June retail sales -1.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Germany June producer prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Eurozone May current account balance €37.0 billion vs €38.6 billion prior

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.210%
• Gold down 1.3% to $2,413.68
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $80.88
• Bitcoin flat at $63,979

The session started with a quieter mood initially, before a widespread of tech outages were reported across major networks around the globe. It started with Microsoft saying that it had some issues with its cloud system and that grounded several flights from smaller airlines.

Eventually, the world would soon realise that it was much a bigger problem as banks, media outlets, airlines, and pretty much all services with Microsoft-related systems were all down. Even trading brokerages were affected as we got to the European market open.

Microsoft said it had to do with a CrowdStrike update which was flawed, causing an error in its systems.

In any case, the chaos that ensued saw stocks sell off for bit in Europe before calmer heads prevailed. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% before falling by 0.4%, then now recovering to be up by 0.2% again. European equities saw red at the open and didn’t really recover too much though, as tech shares are the ones leading the bounce.

The moves there didn’t quite translate to much action in major currencies though. FX was quieter as the dollar is holding steady ahead of the final stretch of the week.

EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0890 while GBP/USD keeps with the rejection of 1.3000 to be down 0.2% to 1.2915 on the day. USD/JPY saw some light pushing and pulling but is now flattish at around 157.40 levels.

Well, as the global IT hiccup looks to have come and gone, the focus turns back towards whether Wall Street will stick to the selloff seen in the last two days to wrap up the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a notable upward price trend,
fueled by significant exchange outflows and bullish sentiment, with many eyeing
the $72,000 mark as a potential target. This article focuses on the technical
factors driving this trend and explores emerging opportunities in the crypto
market such as the Minotaurus ($MTAUR) presale.

Bitcoin (BTC) on the Brink
of a Major Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) Market
Position

Rumors suggest that former President Donald Trump may
announce Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve asset for the United States,
driven by Dennis Porter, a crypto community figure, who claims this will be
revealed in Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. If true, this would
mark a historic shift in US monetary policy, positioning Bitcoin as a critical
financial asset and potentially causing significant market movements.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of its downtrend and is on an
upward trajectory. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed
a key trendline on the daily chart, with the price around $64,794.

Experts suggest that if Bitcoin (BTC) flips the $65,000
level into support, it could reach $71,500.

The potential announcement of Bitcoin as a US strategic
reserve asset could propel it to $80,000. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly
positive, with anticipation of a further uptick.

Further Catalysts

The buzz around Bitcoin (BTC) as a potential strategic
reserve asset has captivated analysts and influential figures. Trump advisor
Vivek Ramaswamy advocates for its inclusion in US Treasury reserves to combat
inflation, while David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, envisions the US
securing 210,000 Bitcoin (BTC) for a century. This move could solidify
Bitcoin’s status in global finance and lead to significant price surges if
confirmed.

As the market awaits Trump’s announcement, sentiment
remains highly optimistic, with potential for new all-time highs.

Minotaurus ($MTAUR): A
Blockchain Gaming Project in Presale

While Bitcoin (BTC) prospects might seem compelling,
diversifying portfolios could be a savvy move for crypto enthusiasts. Minotaurus
($MTAUR) seems to be a project that can benefit from either Bitcoin
(BTC) scenario. If it grows, this coin seems ready to follow suit, but if
Bitcoin (BTC) stalls, there’s still enough value in it.

Let’s explain it a bit: it’s a blockchain gaming project
currently in presale. At the time of writing, $MTAUR tokens are priced at just
$0.0000452, which is 77.5% lower than the expected listing price of
$0.00020.

A Closer Look at
Minotaurus ($MTAUR)

Minotaurus ($MTAUR) offers an engaging gaming experience
where players navigate mazes, defeat monsters, and complete challenging levels.
$MTAUR, the project’s native token, has solid utility within the game. By
converting $MTAUR tokens into in-game currency, users can customize their
characters, unlock special features, and enjoy hours of fun directly from
mobile devices.

More on Minotaurus
($MTAUR) Appeal

The project’s appeal extends beyond an affordable entry.
$MTAUR holders can get bonuses for extending vesting periods and referring
friends to join the Minotaurus
community.

Minotaurus ($MTAUR) is committed to providing a secure and
transparent environment for its members. The project has been audited by
SolidProof and Coinsult, ensuring the highest standards of safety.

With balanced tokenomics and a strong development team,
Minotaurus ($MTAUR) could make a significant impact in the growing casual
gaming market, which is valued at approximately $14.78 billion and expanding
steadily as per Statista.

The presale token supply is finite. For those who want to
join Minotaurus ($MTAUR) at the ground level, it makes sense to take action
now.

More
Details on the Official Website

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The cause pointed out by Microsoft was that there was a flawed update of CrowdStrike program that took down its systems. That has resulted in massive IT failures and outages across the globe, hindering services and businesses all around. CrowdStrike did also earlier say that they had deployed a fix to the issue while confirming that it was not a cyberattack.

In a day and age where we rely so much on programming and machine functions to go about our day, it’s a good reminder of the simpler times when a lot of the tasks were done manually. And those days were not too long ago. It’s amazing how far technology has come in the last 10-15 years. But also scary on how we have grown to be so reliant on it as well now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The Nasdaq has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a
strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness
across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The
fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a
soft landing. The bearish momentum seems to be waning going into the weekend, so the technicals might
be helpful for the dip-buyers to time a possible bounce.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now near the trendline around the 19700 level. This is
where can expect the dip-buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the next major trendline around the 19000 level.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good resistance zone now around the 20300 level
where we can find the confluence of the downward trendline and the
50% Fibonacci
retracement level.

If we get a bounce from the
19700 support zone, we can expect the sellers to step in around the downward
trendline to position for a break below the 19700 support with a better risk to
reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking above the downward trendline and the 20300 resistance to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push towards the
break below the 19700 support.

The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking above the trendline and the most recent lower high at 19980
to gain even more confidence and increase the bullish bets into the 20300
resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US
CPI report as the index had its best 5 days streak in 24
years. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big
cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated
by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as yields came
down.

More recently, we finally started to see a pullback which wasn’t triggered
by any negative catalyst, so it might be an opportunity to buy the dip as the
fundamentals strengthened the case for a soft landing.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 rejected a resistance
level at 2290 and started to pull back. The first support zone is around the 2170
level where we can find the confluence
of the previous swing high and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level.

This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major
trendline.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour
Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the US CPI marked on the chart as the catalyst that triggered the huge run
into the 2290 level. There’s not much else to glean from this timeframe as the
buyers will likely be waiting around the 2170 level, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is getting closer to the support zone. If the price bounces
before reaching the support, we can expect the buyers to pile in on a break
above the most recent lower high at 2226. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Copper experienced a pretty strong selloff this week with market
participants blaming the soft Chinese economic
data and the increase in inventories in most global warehouses suggesting some
weak demand.

In the big picture, stable global growth and major central banks cutting
rates into resilient economies should be bullish drivers for the copper market
but more expansionary policies from Chinese officials would give a stronger
support for prices.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper eventually erased all the gains from the first week of July and
dropped back to the key 4.35 support where we have also the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.

This is where we can expect
the buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the support to position
for a rally back into the 4.67 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4.00
level next.

Copper Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we might even form a range here between the 4.35 support and the 4.67
resistance. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart as the market
participants might keep on “playing the range” until we get a breakout on
either side.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to gain more
conviction and increase the bullish bets into the resistance.

The sellers, on
the other hand, will likely keep on leaning on the trendline to push into new
lows and target a break below the support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Not much to get excited about the ECB meeting decision later
• Major currencies slow things down after the action yesterday
• BOJ data does not suggest evidence of intervention on 17 July
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says no comment on FX moves
• UK May ILO unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.4% expected
• Switzerland June trade balance CHF 6.18 billion vs CHF 5.81 billion prior
• China’s Communist Party central committee adopts resolution on further deepening reforms

Markets:

• AUD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 4.188%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,463.58
• WTI crude down 0.1% to $82.74
• Bitcoin up 0.2% to $64,687

It was a much quieter session as markets calmed down following all the action yesterday.

In FX, the Japanese yen nudged lower as BOJ data suggested no evidence of intervention yesterday. USD/JPY had already risen from a low of 155.36 in Asia to around 156.00-30 before pushing to around 156.45 now.

Meanwhile, the pound is also a touch softer as GBP/USD continues to stay under the 1.3000 mark. That despite the UK labour market report showing indications that wage pressures remain on the high side for the BOE.

Besides that, there is very little action elsewhere in the FX space with other major currencies not doing much.

That owes much to the calmer mood in equities today as well. US futures are steadier following the selloff in tech shares yesterday. But it is still early in the day, and we could see the overall mood switch up again – one way or another – later in US trading.

For now, it’s on to the ECB policy decision next. But that shouldn’t be one to get traders off their seats, given that the central bank is to keep rates unchanged and defer thing to the September meeting instead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.