Fundamental
Overview

This week has been pretty
boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a
tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as
we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP
report.

As a reminder, the Fed is
now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will
not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it
strong. Therefore, the data will decide whether the central bank will go with a
standard 25 bps cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50
bps cut.

In today’s context though,
weaker labour market data and the prospect of a 50 bps cut might not be enough
to lift the stock market and could actually lead to more downside on
recessionary fears, so that’s something to keep in mind.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that after the spike higher on the dovish Powell’s speech, the Russell 2000
this week has been pulling back on the lack of more catalysts. Nonetheless, the
trend is still skewed to the upside, so the momentum buyers keep on stepping in
around key levels on the lower timeframes. The sellers will need to see the
price breaking below the 2100 level to start targeting new lows and switch the
bias from bullish to bearish.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a strong support zone around the 2185 level where we had also
the confluence
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the trendline.
The buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking below the trendline to position for a drop into the 2100
level next.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we got a break of the downward counter-trendline today. The buyers
will likely increase the bullish bets around these levels to position for a
rally into a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to wait for
the price to break below the upward trendline before positioning into more
downside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan’s Trade Ministry eyes 2.3596 trillion yen for FY2025/26 budget
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 August 0.5% vs -10.1% prior
• Wang Yi urges US to treat China as equal and halt suppression in trade and tech
• JP Morgan joins other banks looking for more USD downside
• WTI gives up all the Libya gains and trades below $75
• Knowing election results in advance doesn’t give an investing edge
• Israeli US Egyptian Qatari negotiators meet in Doha for Gaza ceasefire talks
• Swiss investor sentiment -3.4 vs 9.4 prior
• Eurozone Money M3 annual growth 2.3 vs 2.7% expected
• What to expect from Nvidia’s report?
• Citi predicts zinc to reach $3100/t by 4Q with aluminium also set for gains
• Libya’s Sarir oil field nears shutdown as production is halted
• French consumer confidence 92 vs 92 expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• Swedish trade balance 6.5B vs 8.7B prior
• BoJ Himino says there is no set timeframe for economic stability
• Sentiment mostly mixed across major asset classes
• Consumer confidence data shows further cooling in the labour market
• Interesting reaction in the AUD to today’s CPI data
• With Aussie CPI out of the way the calendar ahead is another quiet one

Markets:

• USD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 2 bps to
  3.806%
• Gold
  down 0.77% to $2,505
• WTI
  crude down 1.97% to $74.04
• Bitcoin
  up 1.03% to $60,047

It was yet another
quiet session with no market moving data. There wasn’t even any notable news
release. It was hard not to fall asleep.

In the
markets, there’s been very little movement. The only notable mover has been
crude oil as it extended the drop below the Monday’s spike level on Libyan oil
production halt news.

Looking
ahead, we just have Nvidia reporting earnings after the close.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Trade Ministry is set to ask for 2.3596 trillion yen in its preliminary budget request for FY2025/26, according to Jiji.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US MBA mortgage applications: 0.5% vs -10.1% prior

US MBA mortgage market index: 226.9 vs 225.8 prior

US MBA purchase index: 131.8 vs 130.6 prior

US MBA refinancing index: 753.8 vs 754.4 prior

US MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.44% vs 6.50% prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan, emphasized the importance of treating each other as equals for the smooth development of China-US interactions – Chinese state media.
• Wang Yi advised the U.S. not to judge China based on the path it has traveled nor to view China through the lens of a hegemonic strong country – state media.
• Wang Yi called for the U.S. to cease suppressing China in areas such as trade, commerce, science, and technology, and to stop jeopardizing China’s legitimate interests – state media.
• He criticized protectionism under the guise of ‚overcapacity‘, stating it would jeopardize global green development and impact world economic growth – state media.
• Wang Yi urged the U.S. to adhere to its commitment not to support ‚Taiwan independence‘, to stop arming Taiwan, and to support the peaceful ‚reunification‘ of China – state media.
• He asserted that Taiwan ‚belongs to‘ China and that ‚Taiwan independence‘ poses the greatest risk to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait – state media.
• Wang Yi warned the U.S. against undermining China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity under any pretext, and not to support or condone what he termed the Philippines‘ ‚infringing acts‘.
• He criticized the U.S. for not taking responsibility regarding the Ukraine crisis and for imposing ‚illegal‘ unilateral sanctions indiscriminately.
• Both sides agreed to hold video calls between the two militaries‘ theater leaders at an appropriate time – state media.
• China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a meeting with U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Two sides discussed a new round of interaction between the two heads of state in the near future – state media.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• As long as disinflation path converges to 2% before end of 2025, then I’m comfortable with gradual policy easing.

There is nothing new here. The market sees a 100% chance of a cut in September and a total of 64 bps of easing by year-end.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Things to look out for in today’s Consumer Confidence data
• Lavrov condemns Ukraine’s demands and warns West against ‚playing with fire‘
• UK CBI Distributive Trades -27 vs -43 prior
• Markets still leaning mostly risk on as we head deeper into the session
• UK PM Starmer warns of ‚painful‘ October budget,
• Two Libyan oilfields shut and another at lowest output
• BofA is bulilsh on the AUD due to differentials and a weaker USD
• UBS hikes US recession odds to 25% from prior 20%
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• EURUSD has been following yield differentials higher
• What are the main events for today?
• Equity futures mostly green across the board this morning
• German detailed YY GDP 0.0% vs -0.1% expected
• German Consumer sentiment -22 vs -18.2 expected
• Swedish PPI YY for July -0.1 vs 0.8% prior
• BofA likes the USD lower and GBP higher
• Goldman maintains recommendation to stay long GBPCHF
• Fed officials keep door to 50bp cuts open

Markets:

• GBP leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities flat; S&P 500 futures down 0.05%
• US 10-year yields up 3 bps to
  3.848%
• Gold
  down 0.30% to $2,510
• WTI
  crude down 0.57% to $76.98
• Bitcoin
  down 0.61% to $62,438

It was another
quiet session with no market moving data releases. The only notable news was
UK’s PM Starmer warning of “painful” budget in October which hints to tax
rises, although he promised not to raise them for working people.

In the
markets, there’s been very little movement. The most notable moves have been in
the bond market where long-term Treasury yields have been rising faster than
short-term ones. Although that could be just daily noise, it’s something to
keep an eye on as the Fed cuts into a resilient economy (at least for now).

The focus
will now switch to the American session where the labour market data in the US
Consumer Confidence report will take the centre stage.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

With all the focus on the labour market right now, there are a few data points within today’s Consumer Confidence report that could get some attention and worth being aware of.

1. Jobs hard to find (overlaying this with the unemployment rate should explain why it’s useful and why it would matter going into next week’s jobs data).

2. Ratio between Jobs plentiful and jobs not so plentiful (a big drop in this one can get attention as well)

3. Ratio of Present situation versus forward expectations (this has in past cycles offered a fairly decent trigger or warning of slowdown conditions – but please keep in mind this has not been a regular cycle so pinch of salt, but the current macro context makes this interesting)

Unfortunately these aren’t part of the usual calendar release which is usually only the headline number, so it will require some digging in the report. But big surprises in these ones could get more attention today and worth keeping on the radar.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Ukraine’s demands that the West let it strike deep into Russia: „This is blackmail.“
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Russia has its own nuclear weapons doctrine, which is being adjusted.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: Playing with fire is very dangerous for those who are entrusted with nuclear weapons in the West.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.