USD/CHF has seen gains in each of the opening four months this year. But in May trading, the pair looks set for its first monthly decline now. A chunk of that will owe to today’s drop, after having seen a bounce off key support at 0.9000 earlier this month.

The combination of a stronger dollar and a quick shift by the SNB to rate cuts in March has helped to precipitate the rise in USD/CHF this year. The Swiss central bank made their move as inflation pressures look to be coming well under control. However, there is still lingering uncertainty as evident with things in the US, Europe, and UK.

So, the SNB must not be too complacent in their approach. If the franc also continues to weaken, that might invite more inflation down the road for the Swiss economy. And as SNB president Jordan outlined earlier here, that is the key risk that they have to watch out for right now.

If they are to cut rates further, it will see more pressure on the franc. But at the same time, they’d be hoping to avoid too much of that so as to not stir up higher inflation.

The risk backdrop earlier today was rather sluggish and it was a good a time as any for the SNB to work some of their magic. But we’re now seeing mixed flows in European morning trade, though the franc is still unfazed and sitting at the highs for the day.

But in the case of USD/CHF, there is still key support closer to 0.9000 at this stage. As long as that holds, the pair can still maintain a more bullish momentum in the bigger picture.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

They make the case that May was a positive month for US equities, hence rebalancing flows will result in outflows for the dollar. This matches up with what Barclays argued from last week here.

At the same time, Deutsche says that their model also points to positive flows in the CAD and GBP. This comes as both Canadian and UK equities have lagged behind their US counterparts this month. In that lieu, they see the most selling in USD/CAD and most demand in GBP/USD for this month-end.

Typically, these flows can play out during the week but they can be particularly evident at the London fix in the last few days of the month. So, that might be one to watch out for later today or tomorrow.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The USD got a boost from
the strong US Consumer Confidence data which triggered an aggressive
rise in long term Treasury yields. The report however just showed that the
labour market remains resilient which is good news for growth and not
necessarily bad news for inflation. The greenback benefited also from the
risk-off sentiment which seems to be caused more by the month-end flows rather
than a fundamental driver.

The GBP, on the other hand,
has been supported by a slightly more hawkish repricing in interest rates
expectations following the hot UK CPI report last week which saw the chances of a
rate cut in June evaporating. If we go back into risk-on sentiment, the
greenback could start losing ground against the Pound again.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD managed to eventually hit the 1.28 handle. The pair started to
drop steadily since then as the risk-off sentiment in the markets boosted the
US Dollar. If the correction extends further, we can expect the buyers to lean
on the trendline
around the 1.2630 level to position for a rally into new highs with a good risk
to reward setup.

The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the
1.25 handle next.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have the confluence of the previous swing high and the
50.0% Fibonacci retracement level around the trendline. This
should technically strengthen the support and give the buyers a bit more
conviction for a bounce. A break below that support
should give the sellers more control and increase the bearish momentum.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good resistance at the 1.2710 level where we can find the
confluence of the downward minor trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level.

This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the trendline to position for a drop into the major trendline with a good
risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting new highs.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we
conclude the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The markets went into
risk-off on Tuesday after the strong US Consumer Confidence data which triggered an aggressive
rise in long term Treasury yields. The report however just showed that the
labour market remains resilient which is good news for growth and not
necessarily bad news for inflation.

The month-end flows could
also be skewing the picture. The negative sentiment weighed on Bitcoin although
much less than in other markets, which might also be a signal that as soon as
the sentiment changes, we could see some more upside.

Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin is testing the 67275 support.
This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
level to position for a rally into the cycle highs. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to open the door for a drop
into the 60000 support next.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have some nice confluence
around the support with the trendline
and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. This should technically strengthen the support zone and
give the buyers a bit more conviction for a bounce. A break below the trendline,
on the other hand, will likely give the sellers more control and possibly
trigger a bigger correction.

Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the first resistance comes around the 68861 swing level. A break above
that level should open the door for a rally into the 70639 swing high.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we
conclude the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Futures Technical Analysis and Forecast

• Recent Performance: The Dow Jones Futures (YM1!) has experienced a significant sell-off, moving out of the upper trendline boundary of the long-term channel.
• Past Analysis Point: A previous recommendation was made near the red arrow, indicating an expected rise towards the upper channel line.
• Current Position: Despite my expectations (marked by the blue „X“), the price reversed before reaching the anticipated resistance area, showing even a gerate bearish force.
• Support and Resistance: Key support is identified around 38,000, with potential resistance at 40,000 if the price attempts a recovery.
• Market Outlook: Traders should watch for consolidation within the channel or further breakdown below current levels, indicating more downside potential.

Stay updated with our latest technical analysis and forecast for more insights into the Dow Jones Futures movements. For more information, visit ForexLive.com. Trade at your own risk.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Euro nudges a little lower after the data releases
• Why the markets went into risk-off yesterday?
• Stocks stay on the defensive so far on the session
• BOJ’s Adachi: Will respond if FX moves have material impact on economy, prices
• Germany May Bavaria CPI +2.7% vs +2.5% y/y prior
• Germany June GfK consumer sentiment -20.9 vs -22.5 expected
• France May consumer confidence 90 vs 91 expected
• Eurozone Money Supply M3 Y/Y 1.3% vs. 1.3% expected
• Switzerland May UBS investor sentiment 18.2 vs 17.6 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 24 May -5.7% vs +1.9% prior

Markets:

• USD leads, AUD and NZD lag on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.7%
• US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.571%
• Gold down 0.7% to $2,344.65
• WTI crude up 0.8% to $80.44
• Bitcoin down 0.7% to $67,803

The risk mood is staying more cautious today, after having soured in US trading yesterday. The selloff in bonds was a trigger and that continued a little today, with yields sitting higher across the board.

Equities are pinned down once again while the dollar is slightly bid after some light changes earlier to start the session.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0835 with USD/JPY holding at 157.20 levels after a brief dip to 157.00 at the end of Tokyo trading.

The commodity currencies are the laggards amid the dour risk mood. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both down 0.3% to 0.6628 and 0.6123 respectively.

There wasn’t much else for traders to work with on the economic calendar. German inflation looks to be coming in more or less in line with estimates, but perhaps slightly on the softer side. That said, it doesn’t change up the ECB narrative for next week and the overall outlook for now at least.

In the commodities space, we’re seeing metals drop back with gold down 0.7% to $2,344 and silver retreating back under $32 to $31.90 now. Copper is also easing back, down a little over 1% to under $4.79 per pound.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The second annual Financial Achievements in Markets Excellency awards (FAME) ceremony took place on the 21st of May 2024 in Sandton City, South Africa. These awards have established themselves as a standard for excellence in the financial services space, recognizing some of the top performing companies.

Several of the industry’s leading brands attended the FAME ceremony, following at the conclusion of Day 1 of the Finance Magnates Africa Summit (FMAS:24) at the Sandton Convention Centre. A total of thirteen awards were given out, covering several prestigious titles and achievements in Africa in 2024.

FAME – Africa’s Gold Standard of Excellence

The FAME awards have quickly become some of the most sought-after titles, especially in Africa. As the financial services space continues to grow at a breakneck pace, many individuals and companies look at these awards as a stamp of approval and example of who to do business with.

Africa itself has shown extraordinary growth with the retail trading scene taking sizable leaps in recent years. With no sign of slowing down and renewed interest in the continent, reinforced by strong growth potential, favorable demographics, and myriad talent, Africa’s best days in the trading sphere look to be ahead.

Each of the winners of this year’s FAME awards has demonstrated excellence in the financial markets in Africa. These companies have also showcased unparalleled commitment, innovation, and leadership in their respective industries. These awards signal to everyone that these companies are the most reputable for both trading and business.

This year’s winners include the following brands:

Best CFD Broker in Africa – iFX Brokers

Best ECN/STP Broker in Africa – FXView

Best Multi-Asset Broker in Africa – Exness

Fastest Growing Broker in Africa – TradingPro

Best Forex Spreads in Africa – TradingPro

Best IB/Affiliate Program in Africa – XM

Best Trading Experience in Africa – FP Markets

Best Customer Service in Africa – iFX Brokers

Most Trusted Broker in Africa – Exness

Best Copy Trading Broker in Africa – HF Markets

Most Reliable Broker in Africa – ATFX

Most Client-Oriented Broker in Africa – FBS

Best Trading Conditions in Africa – Octa

Fastest Execution Broker in Africa – Bold Prime

Most Innovative Broker in Africa – Amega

All 2024 FAME Winners

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +1.9%
• Market index 190.3 vs 201.9 prior
• Purchase index 138.4 vs 140.0 prior
• Refinance index 463.8 vs 536.9 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.05% vs 7.01% prior

The main cause for the drop in mortgage applications in the past week is a big decline in refinancing activity. It comes after a bit of a bounce in recent weeks. But if anything else, it reaffirms that the housing market is still soft-ish.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Crude oil has been falling
steadily since topping around the $87.50 level following the mutual
retaliations between Iran and Israel. The drop has been kind of a
head-scratcher as the market didn’t respond positively to the global growth
expectations amid China and other major central banks policy easing, improving
PMIs and OPEC+ extending the voluntary production cuts until the end of the
year.

More recently though, crude
oil finally caught a sustained bid triggered by the strong US
PMIs last week and added to the gains yesterday following the strong US
Consumer Confidence report. Looking ahead, positive growth and sentiment
should be tailwinds for the market, but we will need to crack a strong
resistance first to gain some more conviction.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil recently bounced around the bottom of the 80-76 range and extended
the rally following the break of the trendline.
The price is now trading right at the key 80-81 resistance.

This is where the sellers
will likely step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a
drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance with the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level adding some extra confluence.
The price has been ranging between the 80 resistance and the 77 support and it
will be interesting to see if the recent data will be enough to trigger a
breakout to the upside or we keep trading inside this range.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that if this strong bullish momentum remains intact, the first support for
the buyers will be the steep trendline around the 80 level. A break below this
level should provide for a correction into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level around the 79 level where we can also find the lower limit of the average
daily range. The sellers will likely increase the bearish bets on a break
below the trendline and target a drop back into the 77 support.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude
the week with the Chinese PMIs and the US PCE report. Note that the OPEC+
meeting will be held on Sunday June 2nd where the group is expected
to extend the voluntary output cuts.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Copper has been rallying like crazy in the past few months amid a pickup in
global growth, Chinese stimulus measures and concerns over tightness in global
mine supply. Unfortunately, as it’s often the case, the rally attracted the
momentum players and the price got overstretched leading to an aggressive selloff without a clear catalyst.

All else being equal, if we keep seeing positive economic growth and maintain
the risk-on sentiment, we could see new highs in the months ahead with
the Chinese officials likely increasing the policy support if the data were to show
some deceleration.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper experienced an aggressive correction to the downside after
setting a new all-time high. The price bounced and consolidated on the trendline
where we have also the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.

This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4.47 level.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation between the trendline and the 4.85 level. A
breakout to the upside should see the buyers gaining more conviction and
increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. On the other hand, a
breakout to the downside will likely trigger another selloff with the sellers aiming
for the 4.47 level as the first target.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see even better the current rangebound price action between the 4.75 support
and the 4.85 resistance. Note that we have another support at 4.70, so if we
were to see the price dropping below the 4.75 support it wouldn’t yet signal more
downside to come.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US Consumer Confidence report where the
focus will likely be on the labour market details. On Thursday, we will see the
latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally on Friday, we conclude the week with
the Chinese PMIs and the US PCE report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.