The bond market is usually the first to figure things out but even it’s struggling with the political turmoil and economic uncertainty right now.

Notably, long dated Treasury yields jumped in the immediate aftermath of the debate on June 28 in a signal about a Republican sweep coupled with further tax cut and a deficit running around 6.5% of GDP for the next five years.

Then the market had a rethink. Whether that was due to cross-currents, the still-long timeline before the election or the likelihood of Biden dropping out is debatable. BMO thinks the market is also factoring in the second-order effects of a Republican sweep:

Recall in the wake of the Biden/Trump debate, the
Treasury market bear steepened on supply/reflation concerns. Once the initial
dust settled, the kneejerk response to improved Trump odds appears to be a bear
flattener – the logic being that any rebound of inflationary pressures will
slow the FOMC’s normalization (i.e. cutting) process during the latter part of
2025 and beyond. We suspect the first order response to a Biden withdrawal
would be incrementally bond friendly and most likely still a steepener. Simply
a reversal impulse.

To translate this into FX, the takeaway would be:

• Trump positive = dollar bullish
• Biden/Democrat positive = dollar bearish

I’m on board with this thinking but I wouldn’t get carried away with the idea that it will dominate markets. Also, the most-underappreciated race in 2024 is the House. Betting sites put Democrats only narrowly behind for House control despite all the turmoil and that could quickly turn and lead to a split Congress and the inevitable gridlock that comes with it.

Another thing to keep in mind is that bond seasons are constructive for the next few weeks, meaning the bias in yields is to the downside. None of this is happening in a vacuum and the outlook for the economy and inflation is in flux.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A practical guide for investors

The FTSE China A50 Index Futures (ticker: XIN9) are a vital tool for international investors aiming to tap into China’s vibrant A-share market. Traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), these futures mirror the performance of the 50 largest A-share companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, providing a comprehensive snapshot of China’s leading economic players. Their popularity is driven by high liquidity and accessibility, making them a favored choice for both hedging and speculative strategies.

The pros and cons of using technical analysis on FTSE China A50 Index Futures

Advantages

• Liquidity and volume: The FTSE China A50 Index Futures are highly liquid, ensuring smoother trade executions and minimizing slippage risk. This liquidity enhances the reliability of technical analysis by providing consistent price patterns and indicators.
• Market representation: The index includes top-performing companies, capturing broad economic trends and investor sentiment in China. This makes technical analysis more meaningful, as the index reflects significant market forces.
• Global accessibility: Available on SGX, these futures are accessible to international investors, attracting a diverse group of market participants. This global participation increases the validity of observed technical patterns.

Disadvantages

• Regulatory influences: The Chinese stock market is subject to regulatory changes and interventions that can cause sudden, unpredictable movements. These interventions can distort technical signals, complicating long-term analysis.
• Market volatility: High volatility, driven by economic data releases, policy announcements, and geopolitical factors, can create false signals and increase the risk in technical analysis despite the trading opportunities it presents.
• Economic and political sensitivity: The index’s sensitivity to economic policies and political developments in China can overshadow technical factors, making long-term predictions more complex.

Key technical indicators

For traders using technical analysis, identifying „tells“ such as rapid buying or reactionary support and resistance levels is crucial. These tells often appear through specific patterns and indicators:

• Support and resistance levels: Historical price levels where the index consistently finds support or faces resistance can indicate potential reversal points, useful for setting entry and exit points.
• Volume spikes: Significant changes in trading volume often precede major price movements. A sudden volume increase coupled with price action can indicate strong buying or selling interest, signaling potential breakouts or breakdowns.
• Candlestick patterns: Patterns such as Doji, Hammer, and Engulfing provide insights into market sentiment and potential reversals. Observing these patterns over longer time frames can help identify sustained trends and key turning points.
• Moving averages: Long-term moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) smooth out price action and reveal the underlying trend. Crossovers of these averages can signal the beginning or end of a trend, offering valuable clues for long-term analysis.

Simple tactic for confirmation

A useful tactic is to look for monthly price closes above significant historical levels, such as previous monthly lows. Markets often exhibit „fake-outs“ where prices temporarily breach key levels only to reverse. A monthly close above these levels provides greater confirmation that the price has settled into new territory and is more widely accepted by market participants.

How to invest in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures: A detailed plan (this is my opinion and trade at your own risk)

Based on the attached chart, here is a detailed plan for investing in the FTSE China A50 Index Futures:

• Entry point: Enter a long position if the monthly price closes above the July 2024 low at 11,894. This acts as a bullish confirmation signal.
• Stop loss: Set a stop loss at 11,840, just below the July 2024 low to minimize risk in case of a false breakout.
• Take profit: Set the take profit level at 16,647, just below the high of December 2021, targeting a substantial move with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
• Risk-reward ratio: This trade plan offers a 5:1 reward-to-risk ratio, which is highly favorable for long-term trading strategies.
• Monitor monthly closes: Continuously monitor the monthly closes to ensure the price stays above key support levels. Adjust the stop loss and take profit levels as necessary based on significant market developments and technical signals.

In summary, while the FTSE China A50 Index Futures present robust opportunities for technical analysis, traders must navigate challenges such as regulatory influences, market volatility, and economic sensitivity. By thoroughly analyzing support and resistance levels, volume patterns, candlestick formations, and moving averages, traders can enhance their ability to predict market movements and make informed trading decisions.

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购买FTSE中国A50指数期货的长期交易计划

FTSE中国A50指数期货（代码：XIN9）为国际投资者提供了进入中国A股市场的机会。以下是详细的交易计划和技术分析：

技术分析的优缺点

优点

• 流动性和交易量：高流动性确保交易执行顺畅，减少滑点风险。
• 市场代表性：该指数包含顶级公司，反映中国经济趋势和投资者情绪。
• 全球可及性：在新加坡交易所（SGX）交易，吸引全球投资者。

缺点

• 监管影响：中国市场监管变化可能导致价格波动，影响技术信号的可靠性。
• 市场波动性：高波动性可能产生虚假信号，增加风险。
• 经济和政治敏感性：政策和经济发展对指数的影响较大，复杂化长期预测。

关键技术指标

• 支撑和阻力位：历史价格水平可作为潜在反转点。
• 交易量激增：交易量的显著变化通常预示价格大幅波动。
• 蜡烛图形态：观察长期时间框架内的形态如十字星、锤子和吞没形态。
• 移动平均线：长期移动平均线交叉点提供趋势信号。

确认策略

• 月线收盘：关注价格是否在重要历史水平上方收盘，以确认新价位的稳定性。

详细交易计划

• 进场点：若月线收盘价高于2024年7月低点11,894点，则买入。
• 止损点：设定在11,840点，低于2024年7月低点。
• 获利点：设定在16,647点，低于2021年12月高点。
• 风险回报比：5:1，非常有利于长期交易策略。
• 监控月线收盘：确保价格保持在关键支撑位上方，必要时调整止损和获利点。

在进行交易时，请注意监管、市场波动和经济政策的影响，确保做出明智的交易决策。

您可以在此查看详细的文章：Forexlive.com

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The People’s Bank of China announces the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday,

The announcement is usually on the 20th, but since that’s Saturday it’ll be on Monday instead.

Earlier this week we had the monthly Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) setting:

• The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected

When the People’s Bank of China leaves the MLF rate unchanged its often, but not always, a signal that LPRs will remain unchanged.

Current LPR rates are:

• 3.45% for the one year
• 3.95% for the five year

Won’t be cutting this month (is the widely held expectation).

—

The PBOC’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR):

• Its an interest rate benchmark used in China, set by the People’s Bank of China each month.
• The LPR serves as a reference rate for banks when they determine the interest rates for (primarily new) loans issued to their customers.
• Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages.
• Its calculated based on the interest rates that a panel of 18 selected commercial banks in China submit daily to the PBOC.
  • The panel consists of both domestic and foreign banks, with different weights assigned to each bank’s contributions based on their size and importance in the Chinese financial system.
  • The LPR is based on the average rates submitted by these panel banks, with the highest and lowest rates excluded to reduce volatility and manipulation. The remaining rates are then ranked, and the median rate becomes the LPR.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Canada May retail sales -0.8% vs -0.6% expected
• Biden’s family has started discussing his exit plan – report
• Canada industrial product prices for June 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
• Fed’s Williams: Central banks must own the inflation-control mission
• Add Dem Senator Heinrich to the ranks of „It is time to quit Joe“… and more.
• Crowdstrike CEO: Many customers rebooting systems, could be some time for some to recover
• PBOC: We will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags
• WTI crude oil down $2.53 to $80.29
• US 10-year yields up 5.3 bps to 4.24%
• Gold down $46 to $2399
• S&P 500 down 0.7%

There was no place to hide today as stocks, bonds, commodities and precious metals all fell. The lone exception was bitcoin, which notched an impressive 5% gain, perhaps as the Crowdstrike fiasco highlighted the fragility of the tech ecosystem.

For the rest of the market, it was a deleveraging event with political and economic uncertainty high. That meant selling in everything as the market looks to the Fed blackout and a quieter summer market. Given the turmoil recently, that might be a fanciful hope but the temptation to cash out after a 16% YTD stock market rally is real.

Unlike some other pockets of the market, the FX moves were modest. The dollar weakness early in the week continued to erode with the euro backing away from 1.10 and the pound retreating after briefly breaking 1.30. The later looks something like a break after an extended post-election move.

USD/JPY survived the rout in Wednesday and has steadied itself though was reluctant to push anywhere near 158 today. Yields were a tailwind and the talk about the BOJ refraining from further hikes helped. There is unease about intervention though or whatever the MoF playbook might be.

Commodity currencies present the most-compelling narrative as they slide on deteriorating growth prospects both at home and globally. China hasn’t offered up any change of course hints at the Third Plenum, though there are some hopes for post-even announcements in the coming week or two. Domestically, a poor Canadian retail sales report cemented a rate cut next week and has kicked off talk of a deeper, faster rate-cutting cycle.

Have a wonderful weekend. I’ll be off next week so see you in a couple weeks.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The bad news is that it was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April. The good news is that after the sharp correction in April, the market recovered quickly.

Today’s price action was influenced by $2.7 trillion in options expiring including $555 billion in single stocks. It was the largest-ever July month expiration and speaks to the incredible power of the options market at the moment.

Next week we will spin it up again and find some new memes.

• S&P 500 -0.7%
• Nasdaq Comp -0.8%
• DJIA -0.9%
• Russell 2000 -0.6%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.1%

Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Global tech outages impact markets at the European open
• Tech shares fall as global IT outage greets Europe in the morning
• Microsoft says underlying issue causing the tech outage has been resolved
• ECB’s Villeroy: market expectations on rates seem rather reasonable
• ECB’s Muller: It’s important not to pre-commit on September
• ECB’s Šimkus: I agree with markets which sees two more rate cuts this year
• BOJ bond meeting minutes shows some mixed views on pace of tapering
• UK June retail sales -1.2% vs -0.4% m/m expected
• Germany June producer prices +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected
• Eurozone May current account balance €37.0 billion vs €38.6 billion prior

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.210%
• Gold down 1.3% to $2,413.68
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $80.88
• Bitcoin flat at $63,979

The session started with a quieter mood initially, before a widespread of tech outages were reported across major networks around the globe. It started with Microsoft saying that it had some issues with its cloud system and that grounded several flights from smaller airlines.

Eventually, the world would soon realise that it was much a bigger problem as banks, media outlets, airlines, and pretty much all services with Microsoft-related systems were all down. Even trading brokerages were affected as we got to the European market open.

Microsoft said it had to do with a CrowdStrike update which was flawed, causing an error in its systems.

In any case, the chaos that ensued saw stocks sell off for bit in Europe before calmer heads prevailed. S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% before falling by 0.4%, then now recovering to be up by 0.2% again. European equities saw red at the open and didn’t really recover too much though, as tech shares are the ones leading the bounce.

The moves there didn’t quite translate to much action in major currencies though. FX was quieter as the dollar is holding steady ahead of the final stretch of the week.

EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0890 while GBP/USD keeps with the rejection of 1.3000 to be down 0.2% to 1.2915 on the day. USD/JPY saw some light pushing and pulling but is now flattish at around 157.40 levels.

Well, as the global IT hiccup looks to have come and gone, the focus turns back towards whether Wall Street will stick to the selloff seen in the last two days to wrap up the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a notable upward price trend,
fueled by significant exchange outflows and bullish sentiment, with many eyeing
the $72,000 mark as a potential target. This article focuses on the technical
factors driving this trend and explores emerging opportunities in the crypto
market such as the Minotaurus ($MTAUR) presale.

Bitcoin (BTC) on the Brink
of a Major Breakout

Bitcoin (BTC) Market
Position

Rumors suggest that former President Donald Trump may
announce Bitcoin (BTC) as a strategic reserve asset for the United States,
driven by Dennis Porter, a crypto community figure, who claims this will be
revealed in Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference. If true, this would
mark a historic shift in US monetary policy, positioning Bitcoin as a critical
financial asset and potentially causing significant market movements.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken out of its downtrend and is on an
upward trajectory. Analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has surpassed
a key trendline on the daily chart, with the price around $64,794.

Experts suggest that if Bitcoin (BTC) flips the $65,000
level into support, it could reach $71,500.

The potential announcement of Bitcoin as a US strategic
reserve asset could propel it to $80,000. Market sentiment is overwhelmingly
positive, with anticipation of a further uptick.

Further Catalysts

The buzz around Bitcoin (BTC) as a potential strategic
reserve asset has captivated analysts and influential figures. Trump advisor
Vivek Ramaswamy advocates for its inclusion in US Treasury reserves to combat
inflation, while David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, envisions the US
securing 210,000 Bitcoin (BTC) for a century. This move could solidify
Bitcoin’s status in global finance and lead to significant price surges if
confirmed.

As the market awaits Trump’s announcement, sentiment
remains highly optimistic, with potential for new all-time highs.

Minotaurus ($MTAUR): A
Blockchain Gaming Project in Presale

While Bitcoin (BTC) prospects might seem compelling,
diversifying portfolios could be a savvy move for crypto enthusiasts. Minotaurus
($MTAUR) seems to be a project that can benefit from either Bitcoin
(BTC) scenario. If it grows, this coin seems ready to follow suit, but if
Bitcoin (BTC) stalls, there’s still enough value in it.

Let’s explain it a bit: it’s a blockchain gaming project
currently in presale. At the time of writing, $MTAUR tokens are priced at just
$0.0000452, which is 77.5% lower than the expected listing price of
$0.00020.

A Closer Look at
Minotaurus ($MTAUR)

Minotaurus ($MTAUR) offers an engaging gaming experience
where players navigate mazes, defeat monsters, and complete challenging levels.
$MTAUR, the project’s native token, has solid utility within the game. By
converting $MTAUR tokens into in-game currency, users can customize their
characters, unlock special features, and enjoy hours of fun directly from
mobile devices.

More on Minotaurus
($MTAUR) Appeal

The project’s appeal extends beyond an affordable entry.
$MTAUR holders can get bonuses for extending vesting periods and referring
friends to join the Minotaurus
community.

Minotaurus ($MTAUR) is committed to providing a secure and
transparent environment for its members. The project has been audited by
SolidProof and Coinsult, ensuring the highest standards of safety.

With balanced tokenomics and a strong development team,
Minotaurus ($MTAUR) could make a significant impact in the growing casual
gaming market, which is valued at approximately $14.78 billion and expanding
steadily as per Statista.

The presale token supply is finite. For those who want to
join Minotaurus ($MTAUR) at the ground level, it makes sense to take action
now.

More
Details on the Official Website

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The cause pointed out by Microsoft was that there was a flawed update of CrowdStrike program that took down its systems. That has resulted in massive IT failures and outages across the globe, hindering services and businesses all around. CrowdStrike did also earlier say that they had deployed a fix to the issue while confirming that it was not a cyberattack.

In a day and age where we rely so much on programming and machine functions to go about our day, it’s a good reminder of the simpler times when a lot of the tasks were done manually. And those days were not too long ago. It’s amazing how far technology has come in the last 10-15 years. But also scary on how we have grown to be so reliant on it as well now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The Nasdaq has been on the backfoot recently as the goldilocks data led to a
strong rotation into small caps stocks. Yesterday, there was general weakness
across all the indices although it wasn’t triggered by any catalyst. The
fundamentals haven’t changed, on the contrary, they strengthened the case for a
soft landing. The bearish momentum seems to be waning going into the weekend, so the technicals might
be helpful for the dip-buyers to time a possible bounce.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now near the trendline around the 19700 level. This is
where can expect the dip-buyers to step back in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish
bets into the next major trendline around the 19000 level.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good resistance zone now around the 20300 level
where we can find the confluence of the downward trendline and the
50% Fibonacci
retracement level.

If we get a bounce from the
19700 support zone, we can expect the sellers to step in around the downward
trendline to position for a break below the 19700 support with a better risk to
reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking above the downward trendline and the 20300 resistance to increase the
bullish bets into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to push towards the
break below the 19700 support.

The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking above the trendline and the most recent lower high at 19980
to gain even more confidence and increase the bullish bets into the 20300
resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The Russell 2000 has been on an incredible run ever since the last US
CPI report as the index had its best 5 days streak in 24
years. The goldilocks data was the catalyst for a strong rotation from big
cap stocks into the small cap stocks, and the momentum was probably exacerbated
by hedge funds facing short squeezes on their small cap hedges as yields came
down.

More recently, we finally started to see a pullback which wasn’t triggered
by any negative catalyst, so it might be an opportunity to buy the dip as the
fundamentals strengthened the case for a soft landing.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Russell 2000 rejected a resistance
level at 2290 and started to pull back. The first support zone is around the 2170
level where we can find the confluence
of the previous swing high and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level.

This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support around the major
trendline.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour
Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see the US CPI marked on the chart as the catalyst that triggered the huge run
into the 2290 level. There’s not much else to glean from this timeframe as the
buyers will likely be waiting around the 2170 level, while the sellers will look
for a break lower to increase the bearish bets.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is getting closer to the support zone. If the price bounces
before reaching the support, we can expect the buyers to pile in on a break
above the most recent lower high at 2226. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.