• Prior +7.5%
• New yuan loans ¥0.6 trillion
• Prior ¥0.5 trillion

The year-to-date total for new yuan loans is now seen at ¥17.1 trillion and barring an unprecedented surge in December, it will fall far short of the 2023 record of roughly ¥22.8 trillion. For some context, this figure was ¥21.3 trillion back in 2022. It’s not too bright a side as new bank lending slows down in a crucial time when Beijing is trying to revive domestic demand conditions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• The pace and number of further rate cuts will depend on inflation developments

I want to say that his comments are a bit incomplete for now as the ECB has clearly put more emphasis on the economy in their last two rate cuts, as opposed to the inflation story. But they can be happy that the disinflation trajectory is still largely intact I guess, even with a couple of bumps seen.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The greenback is sitting up against the yen and pound but holding lower against the euro so far today. This comes as stocks are looking to bounce back with US futures up 0.3% but Treasury yields are lightly changed though. So, there is definitely some mixed sentiment in there.

Looking at USD/JPY first, the pair is up 0.5% to 153.40 levels now and I’d argue that this is more of an extension higher after the technical break earlier this week. The pair pushed above its 200-day moving average (blue line), opening up scope for further gains as buyers leaned on the key level during the week:

As for EUR/USD, the pair had just moved up to a high of 1.0495 in the past hour without any meaningful headlines to stoke the flames. But I want to point out the extremely large option expiries at 1.0500 as being a potential pull factor. So, there’s that.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is down 0.2% to 1.2640 but that owes much to the softer UK October monthly GDP data from earlier. It reinforces the narrative that more sluggish economic conditions will eventually weigh on the BOE outlook and quicken the pace of rate cuts going into next year.

Besides that, the dollar is mostly little changed against the rest of the major currencies.

In broader markets, stocks are up but I want to say that Wall Street might have other ideas after the setback yesterday. The only time US stocks produced gains this week was after the critical US CPI report on Wednesday. So, there is a hint of caution there to the early gains we’re seeing thus far today.

Elsewhere, gold is down 0.6% to $2,665 as the rejection of the 25 November high of $2,721 looks to keep the December run higher in check for the time being.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Declining services inflation strengthened the confidence in return to target.
• ECB will decide monetary policy meeting by meeting on the basis of current situation, core inflation and policy transmission.
• Inflation is steadily approaching the target.
• Services inflation remains high, but in recent months it has been steadily moderating which was partly due to lower wage growth.
• Monthly data continue to point to weak growth both due to poor conditions in manufacturing and slowdown in services sector growth.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• SNB doesn’t like negative rates but they do work.
• SNB will use negative rates again if it has to.
• Negative rates did lessen the franc’s attractiveness.
• SNB looks at the whole franc situation, not just the euro.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Quintes Protocol is set to redefine decentralized finance
(DeFi) with its innovative no-depreciation cryptocurrency model. Now protected
by a newly-secured Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) PCT/IB2024/061188 from the
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), this groundbreaking protocol
offers a unique approach to perpetual asset growth, ensuring long-term value
stability and positioning itself as a global disruptive force in the evolving
cryptocurrency market.

Rand Al Kharashi, a visionary young Saudi entrepreneur, aims
to redefine the world of DeFi. By securing a WIPO PCT for the proprietary
technology behind Quintes Protocol, she has reaffirmed her mission to upend the
cryptocurrency market with the world’s first perpetually appreciating asset,
offering a groundbreaking model for predictable and sustainable annual price
growth.“

„This is more than a milestone for Quintes Protocol –
it’s an affirmation that exceptional and continued value can be created in the
crypto field,“ said Rand Al Kharashi, Founder and Inventor of Quintes.
„Quintes is the world’s first crypto asset that is engineered for
continued high price growth. Backed intensive research, verifications, and the
knowledge of renowned token engineers and researchers from leading blockchain
companies, Quintes has just one destination: to pioneer the future of DeFi with
unmatched growth, blazing the way for an exciting new world of cryptocurrency
value.“

QNT: A Revolutionary Leap in DeFi

The Quintes Protocol is set to revolutionize the market with
its groundbreaking cryptonomics. By employing innovative mechanisms, it
reimagines financial instruments, offering a compelling alternative to
equities, commodities, and digital assets. This transformative approach
positions the protocol to deliver competitive performance while challenging the
status quo of traditional financial systems.

Quintes introduces QNT, the first token designed to
consistently appreciate in value, addressing challenges like unsustainable
yields and asset depreciation. By leveraging an innovative
over-collateralization strategy, novel cryptonomics, and AI-driven high-frequency
trading, QNT ensures predictable price growth, combining scalability with
long-term sustainability.

“We’ve seen the potential for cryptocurrencies to achieve
great returns for investors, but that growth is fickle. Growth bubbles occur,
burst suddenly and unexpectedly, and the value is often lost. It may be
possible for an asset to rebuild to match or even exceed its previous high, but
there’s always an element of risk.” Said Rand Al Kharashi, Founder and Inventor
of Quintes. “The value of existing crypto, and even more traditional investment
assets, is never guaranteed. That is what inspired the creation of Quintes and
the concept of perpetual growth, based on predictable collateral value
appreciation.”

Why the PCT Patent Matters

The decision to file for a WIPO PCT patent underscores Al
Kharashi’s commitment to protecting Quintes’ pioneering engineering on a global
scale. This strategic move ensures that Quintes’ innovative protocol is
safeguarded as it seeks patent protection in numerous countries, providing a
robust foundation for its international expansion, future success and eventual
preparation to become open source.

Backed by Elite Research and Talent

The development and engineering of Quintes Protocol is
grounded in rigorous research conducted by Kitabq Research Lab, which was
founded by Al Kharashi. Over two years, Kitabq’s cryptonomics research has been
instrumental in shaping Quintes’ architecture and mechanisms.

Quintes’ technical team is a powerhouse of talent, featuring
elite token engineers and data scientists from industry giants like ConsenSys,
Binance, Algorand, and Morgan Stanley. Collectively, this team has raised over
$600 million in capital and achieved successful exits in both Web3 and Web2
domains.

Anticipated Launch and Investment Opportunities

Scheduled for an official launch in January 2025, the
Quintes Protocol aims to introduce its innovative DeFi platform to the market,
offering stakeholders a novel approach to sustainable digital asset growth. A
recent simulation test revealed Quintes‘ positive performance even in bearish
market conditions, highlighting its resilience and potential. As Quintes gears
up for its groundbreaking debut, the team is actively seeking investment to
drive its vision forward.

About Quintes Protocol

Quintes Protocol (www.quintes.org) is a groundbreaking
decentralised finance (DeFi) platform that aims to revolutionise the world of
digital assets and financial transactions. Founded by visionary Saudi
entrepreneur, Rand Al Kharashi, Quintes leverages cutting-edge cryptonomics to
deliver predictable and sustainable annual price growth, outpacing traditional
and crypto asset classes. The patented technology behind Quintes‘ novel,
high-yield and fully collateralized digital asset, QNT, is secured by a World Intellectual
Property Organization (WIPO) Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT), representing a
major leap forward in the DeFi space. The development of Quintes Protocol has
been supported by extensive research from Kitabq Research Lab, led by Al
Kharashi.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 24 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 80 bps

• ECB: 30 bps (80% probability of 25 bps rate cut at today’s decision)

2025: 151 bps

• BoE: 3 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 76 bps

• BoC 2025: 61 bps (51% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBA 2025: 72 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

• RBNZ 2025: 108 bps (75% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

• SNB 2025: 40 bps (97% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 6 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

2025: 44 bps

*where you see 25 bps rate cut, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Chinese economy still faces many difficulties and challenges
• Need to treat difficulties properly and affirm confidence
• Unfavourable impact brought by external environment has become severe
• Will deepen reforms and pursue high quality development in 2025
• Will expand domestic demand
• Must coordinate relationship between overall supply and demand
• Will implement more proactive macro policies
• Will implement cuts to interest rates and reserve requirement ratios
• To take forceful measures to boost consumption and expand domestic demand in all directions
• Will stabilise housing and stock market
• To implement appropriately loose monetary policy
• Will coordinate and push forward with fiscal and tax reforms

It’s all high-level commentary from China once again following one of their most important economic meetings in setting out targets for next year. As for the headline remark, it is well expected after Xi boasted about that already here earlier this week. Much of the other commentary isn’t anything new as Chinese officials have got their work cut for them in trying to revive domestic demand in the country, as has been the case for the last few years.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US CPI report yesterday came in line with
expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities
standing around 97%. The Nasdaq rallied strongly as there were fears of
potentially higher than expected data and the hedges into the CPI release got
unwound.

Overall, the market’s
pricing remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of 2025. We
will likely need stronger evidence of inflation re-accelerating to price out
the remaining rate cuts. For now, the conditions for further upside remain in
place.

In fact, Trump’s policies should
be a positive driver for growth in 2025 and with the Fed remaining in an easing
cycle, growth should remain positive and might even accelerate as seen already recently
by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator.

The risk in 2025 will be
inflation and the Fed’s reaction function. Right now, the Fed’s reaction
function is that a strong economy would warrant a slower pace in the easing
cycle and not a tightening. That should still be supportive for the stock
market.

If the Fed’s reaction
function were to change to a potential tightening, then that will likely
trigger a big correction in the stock market on expected economic slowdown. For
now, we remain in a “buy the dip” environment.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq extended the rally into a new all-time high following the
US CPI release. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much
better risk to reward setup around the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to target a drop into the 20381 level.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline defining the current bullish momentum on
this timeframe. If we get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean
on the trendline to position for new highs, while the sellers will look for a break
lower to position for a break below the major trendline.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we have
the recent high that might act as support if the bullish momentum remains strong.
The buyers will likely step in around the support to target new highs, while
the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the trendline.
A hot US PPI today might provide a pullback, while soft figures should trigger
another rally. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we get the latest US jobless claims figures and the US PPI report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

🚀 Crypto Market Comeback: Bulls Are Back in Charge! 🐂

The crypto market is flexing its muscles today, showing a strong rebound that’s got traders buzzing! Bitcoin (BTC) is leading the way, up 1.65% to $98,259.15—just shy of that magical $100K mark. Ethereum (ETH) isn’t slouching either, climbing 2.37% to $3,716.60, while Solana (SOL) is stealing the show with a massive 5.31% pump to $225.11. Let’s break it down 👇:

💥 What’s Fueling This Rally?

1. The Short Squeeze Effect:
   • Did someone say short squeeze? Yup, big-time shorts are getting liquidated, especially on BTC ($6.96M in just the last 4 hours!). This forced buying pressure is helping push prices higher across the board. 🔥
   • XRP also saw $2.59M in short liquidations, helping it jump a whopping 7.46% today. Watch out—those XRP bulls are on fire! 🔥

2. Regulatory Optimism:

   • The crypto world is buzzing with hope for more friendly policies under a new U.S. administration. Ripple’s XRP is leading this charge, with traders betting on smoother waters ahead for crypto regulations. 🌊

3. Big Players Are Back:

   • Institutions like MicroStrategy are doubling down, with their latest massive Bitcoin buy signaling they’re in it for the long haul. This is confidence-building for everyone, from whales to weekend traders. 🐋➡️🐟

4. Altcoins Are Shining:

   • Solana’s ecosystem upgrades are paying off big time. It’s up 5.31% and doesn’t look like it’s slowing down. Even Dogecoin (DOGE) is wagging its tail, rising 2.25%—guess the memecoin magic is alive! 🐶✨

🔎 Liquidations: The Secret Sauce

Those pesky short-sellers just got rekt! 🚨 The stats show significant liquidation volumes, particularly for BTC, ETH, and XRP shorts. And when shorts get crushed, prices tend to pump hard. It’s like rocket fuel for the bulls. 🚀

🌟 Why Should You Care?

• Bitcoin is on the edge of greatness: It’s flirting with $100K, and if it breaks through, the FOMO wave could be huge. 🌊
• Ethereum is gaining steam: Eyes are on $3,750 as the next hurdle for ETH.
• Solana’s killing it: If you’ve been sleeping on SOL, today might be your wake-up call. ☀️

📈 What’s Next?

• Keep an eye on BTC: If it breaks $100K, all bets are off—it could go parabolic. 📡 With that, the ForexLive.com AI makes an interesting point for traders about considering to take partial or full profit taking if Bitcoin futures gets near $100,565.
• ETH’s $3,750 resistance: Can it push higher, or will it take a breather? 🤔
• Watch for more short squeezes: With liquidation volumes this high, we might not be done with these quick pumps. 🚀

Final Thoughts 🤑

Today’s turnaround is a reminder that crypto is never boring. Whether you’re trading or just holding, the market’s momentum is tilting in favor of the bulls. Let’s see if this energy can carry us through the week. Don’t forget—always zoom out and trade smart! 🚀📈

So, what’s your next move? Let us know in the comments or share your trades! 👇 Alwys invest/trade crypto at your own risk only and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.