The US major stock indices surged higher today led by the NASDAQ index which rose over 2.0%.

The catalyst was lower than anticipated core PCE data released by the Federal Reserve. That inflation measure is the favor measure of inflation by the Fed. Given the GDP day yesterday with the quarterly core PCE data higher than expectations, the fear was a surprise to the upside today. The MoM came in as expected 0.3%. There was rumblings of a +0.4 – +0.5% level after the data yesterday.

The final numbers today are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average average of 153.84 points or +0.40% at 38239.67.
• S&P index up 51.54 points or 1.02% at 5099.95.
• NASDAQ index up 316.14 points or 2.03% at 15927.90.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 20.8 points or 1.05% at 2001.99.

For the trading week, the S&P and NASDAQ indices had their best week since October 30, 2023.

• Dow Industrial average rose 0.67%
• S&P index rose 2.67%
• NASDAQ index rose 4.23%
• Russell 2000 rose 2.79%.

Gains today were led by:

• Snap, +27.46% after beating earnings
• Alphabet, +10.22% after its earnings
• Super Micro Computers +8.9%. They will announce earnings next week.
• Nvidia, +6.18%. Nvidia won’t announce until later in May.
• Broadcom, was 3.84%
• Amazon, +3.43% (Amazon will announce next week)

The big losers today included:

• Intel, -9.2% after disappointing earnings.
• Exxon Mobil -2.60%. It too missed on earnings
• Paramount -2.60%
• Ford Motor -2.07%
• American Airlines -1.77%

Next week, the following companies will announce their earnings (* after the close):

Monday, April 29

• Domino’s Pizza
• Phillips
• Paramount*
• Logitech*

Tuesday, April 30

• PayPal
• Lily
• 3M
• McDonald’s
• Coca-Cola
• Amazon *
• AMD*
• Super Micro Computers*
• Starbucks*
• Pinterest

Wednesday, May 1

• Pfizer
• CVS
• MasterCard
• Marriott
• Qualcomm *
• Carvana *

Thursday, May 2

• Peloton
• Moderna
• Apple *
• Coinbas *
• Block *
• DraftKings *
• Fortinet *

Friday, May 3

• Hersey

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURJPY has reached a high of 168.8942. That is down the price within the 100 pips of the high price going back to July 2008 at 168.941. Trading above that level would take the pair to the highest level since September 1992.

Traders may look to lean against the high ceiling area from 2008 with stops on a break above (see red number circles in yellow area on the chart above). However, if it is like the USDJPY, be careful.

The USDJPY moved above the 155.00 level this week (on Wednesday) and apart from a flush out immediately after the rate decision today, has been trending higher. The USDJPY price currently trades at 157.864

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of the WTI crude oil settled on Friday at $83.85. The price settled up $0.28 or 0.34%.

The high-price today reached $84.46. The low price was at $83.35.

For the trading week, the price is trading higher by $1.54 or 1.87%.

• The Baker Hughes weekly rig count showed a decrease in total rigs to 613 from 619, with oil rigs down by five to 506, and natural gas rigs moved down by one to 105.
• Concerns about a „Rafah operation,“ remains a potential geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the tensions between Iran and Isreal have abated.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY returns to the highs for the day after flash in the pan drop
• USD/JPY hits the skids in fall to 155.00
• USD/JPY ramps higher as Ueda loses control
• BOJ governor Ueda says chance of a prolonged weakness in the yen is not zero
• BOJ governor Ueda says will adjust degree of monetary easing if underlying inflation rises
• BOJ governor Ueda says will continue to watch impact of FX on economy, prices
• SNB’s Jordan says central bank has been successful in fighting inflation
• France April consumer confidence 90 vs 92 expected
• Eurozone March M3 money supply +0.9% vs +0.6% y/y expected
• ICYMI: Trump advisers consider penalties for nations shifting away from the US dollar

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.692%
• Gold up 0.5% to $2,344.29
• WTI crude up 0.4% to $84.09
• Bitcoin down 0.5% to $64,185

It was all about the Japanese yen during the session as the volatility swings pick up after the BOJ policy decision earlier today.

BOJ governor Ueda had his press conference but he did little to touch on the weaker yen and that was enough for traders to ramp USD/JPY higher. The pair moved up from 155.95 to 156.60 before a sudden surge higher in the yen brought the pair down to 155.00 right at the European open.

The timing of the move is largely suspect as it would be off-form for Tokyo to have intervened. The size of the move might have alluded to that at first but then the dip was quickly bought up. USD/JPY moved back up to 155.50-70 almost immediately, before regaining its composure to move to 156.80 now at the highs for the day.

Things are definitely heating up before the weekend with watchful eyes on any potential intervention from Tokyo, especially with it being a Japanese holiday on Monday. But I wouldn’t rule out a move then either if there isn’t anything today.

In other markets, stocks are staying underpinned after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. US futures are holding on to early gains for the most part while European indices are also posting modest gains so far on the day.

Coming up next, we have the US PCE price data to go through. That will offer traders more to work with after the Q1 GDP data yesterday. I shared some food for thought on that earlier here.

Have a great rest of the Friday and a wonderful weekend, everyone.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

SNB chairman, Thomas Jordan, says that they do take climate change very seriously but notes that:

„We should not give the impression that we can solve all the problems of the world with monetary policy.“

He also adds that the central bank takes into account all risks with its investments and that they do have exclusion criterias when making investment decisions. This of course is related to protests against the SNB, with environmental groups demanding for the Swiss central bank to offload investments in firms that are believed to be linked to global warming and climate change.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened lower
following a selloff caused by surprisingly high Core PCE data in the US Q1 GDP report. The market started to fade the move
right at the open and eventually finished the day almost unchanged. Today we conclude the week with the US PCE report and judging by yesterday’s
price action, we might see another rally at least until the new month data next
week changes the sentiment.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite yesterday opened lower but eventually rallied all the way back to the
prior day’s lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a
much better risk to reward setup around the 15929 level where they will also
find the confluence of the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time
high.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price got rejected from the 21 moving average on this timeframe. Given
yesterday’s price action, we might see another push to the upside, right into
the 15929 resistance where
the sellers will look to pile in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position into new lows.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the yesterday’s negative gap which was filled soon after as the market
rallied for the entire trading session. Moreover, we should see a positive gap
today as tech earnings after the
close were much better than expected and some key stocks
like Alphabet surged into new highs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

If anything else, it shows that:

1) The drop earlier wasn’t likely any intervention check or otherwise from Tokyo. I mean, the timing of the move was already suspect as mentioned at the time. And that is arguably the giveaway now after the fact. It is definitely easier to digest and make sense of the move two hours later of course. So, what could it have been?

2) The pair is definitely in a rather abnormal state at the moment. Plenty of traders are staying sidelined in fears of being hammered down by Tokyo. As such, perhaps larger flows would lead to exacerbated price movements – at least more so than usual. That could’ve been it, alongside stops being triggered in such quick fashion.

3) The dip buying shows the underlying appetite in the market right now. It’s tough to fight the momentum especially with the BOJ conviction also lacking as of late. I mean, recent inflation data hasn’t been shaping up the way that they’re hoping it to be. And that is throwing a wrench in the works on any further rate hikes this year. That is not to mention that Japanese yen pairs are also underpinned by higher bond yields in recent weeks. Adding to that is the lack of technical resistance on the way up for USD/JPY currently.

In any case, we’re back to where we were a few hours ago now. Buyers might not get too carried away for now as we await the US PCE price data coming up. But barring any surprises, we could see price action start to pick up again after that. The 157.00 mark will be an interesting level to watch, as with any big round figures from hereon.

And as mentioned earlier here, it will be interesting to see if Tokyo has the appetite to act at the last minute today. Mind you, it is a Japanese holiday on Monday. But still, I wouldn’t rule out any action in the early morning then if there isn’t anything before the weekend later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Japanese yen might have stolen the focus during the session but it’s time to forget about that for a while. The US PCE price data is coming up later and that will be an important release to watch. It is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation after all. And following the reaction to the US Q1 advance GDP data yesterday, it is clear that market players are still playing close attention to inflation data at the moment.

For now, equities are keeping the optimism after the late rebound in Wall Street yesterday. Tech shares are of course leading the charge, after earnings beat from Alphabet and Microsoft. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% while Nasdaq futures are up 1.0%. Dow futures are only up 0.2% currently. In Europe, major indices are also higher with the DAX up 0.7% and CAC 40 up 0.3% on the day.

Stocks have enjoyed a bit more of a steadier showing this week. However, it doesn’t take away from the rather poor performance overall in April. Sellers are not out of the picture yet and we’ll have to see if the data later offers them something to work with at the end of the week. The 100-day moving average (red line) for the S&P 500 is still not too far away for now:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• US data comes into focus in the second half of the week
• The line in the sand is shifting
• Japan’s economy minister to attend BOJ policy meeting tomorrow
• ECB’s Schnabel says may be facing a bumpy last mile on disinflation
• Germany May GfK consumer sentiment -24.2 vs -26.0 expected
• France April business confidence 99 vs 100 prior
• UK April CBI retailing reported sales -44 vs 2 prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.6%
• US 10-year yields down 0.4 bps to 4.650%
• Gold up 0.6% to $2,329.53
• WTI crude up 0.1% to $82.22
• Bitcoin down 0.1% to $63,955

There wasn’t too much action in European trading today as the market moves were rather straightforward during the session.

The dollar is seen down slightly ahead of the US Q1 advance GDP data coming up later. The greenback is lagging across the board, as we get close to some key technical levels on the charts.

Of note, GBP/USD is up to a two-week high above 1.2500 but faces up against its 38.2 Fib retracement level at 1.2526. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is also running up against its 200-day moving average at 0.6526 on the day. Besides that, EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0720 while USD/CAD is down 0.2% to 1.3670 currently.

As for USD/JPY, it continues to hold above the 155.00 mark and hovering around 155.50-70 mostly during the session.

In the equities space, Meta’s earnings disappointment is reverberating and spooking investors. It’s dragging down tech shares but also weighing on broader sentiment as well. European stocks are mostly down as such while S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.6%.

It’s now over to the slew of US data later and how traders will take to that, putting everything into the mix on the Fed outlook again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday,
the Dow Jones ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key
resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data
front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a
relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the
market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some
worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have
many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
pulled back into the key resistance level at
38464 where we can also find the confluence of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
resistance to position for a drop into the 37128 level. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the
bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the bearish setup around the 38464 resistance and we can also notice
that the trend on this timeframe has already shifted to the upside. This might
be an early signal for a rally into a new all-time high, but the price will
need to break above the resistance to confirm it and trigger an even stronger
bullish wave.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a black counter-trendline that
is defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting
as dynamic support. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
confirm a reversal and increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting
the all-time high.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.