The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day and for the trading week. The declines for the weeks snap a 5-week winning streak. The declines on the day come after two days of higher closes. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were the biggest losers as rates moved higher, and some of the high flyers saw profit-taking.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell -145.15 points or -0.37% at 38627.98
• S&P index fell -24.16 points or -0.48% at 5005.56
• NASDAQ index fell -130.53 points or -0.82% at 15775.64

For the Russell 2000 it fell -28.73 points or -1.39% at 2032.74

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial Average fell -0.11%
• S&P index fell -0.42%
• NASDAQ index fell -1.34%

For the Russell 2000 and actually rose 1.132% this week.

Looking at some of the big movers:

• Super Micro Computers after extending up to a high $1077, tumbled and closed at $803 down $201 or -20.02%.. Despite the tumbled the shares still rose 8.51% this week
• Adobe tumbled $-43.78 or -7.41% to $546.66. Shares of Adobe fell -12.84% this week.
• Meta fell $-10.70 or -2.21% at $473.33. For the week who rose 1.11%
• Alphabet fell $-2.25 or -1.58% at $140.52. For the week shares tumbled -5.69%
• Microsoft fell $-2.50 or -0.61% at $404.06. For the week the shares fell -3.92%
• Arm Holdings fell $-5.34 or -3.99% at $128.34. For the week, the shares still rose 11.4%.
• Broadcom fell $-19.59 or -1.55% at 1245.48. For the week, the shares fell -2.96%
• Micron fell $-2.13 or -2.61% at $79.50. For the week, the shares fell -7.08%
• Apple fell $-1.56 or -0.85% at $182.24. For the week, shares-5.69%
• Nvidia shares fell $-0.45 or -0.06% at $726.13. For the week, shares rose 0.66%. Nvidia reports its earnings next week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s the latest from the New York Times:

Israel carried out covert attacks on two major gas pipelines inside Iran
this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces
with millions of people, according to two Western officials and a
military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Now I don’t know if that’s true or false. Earlier blame was placed groups in Saudi Arabia and other enemies in Iran. A chemical factory explosion was also done by Israel, according to the report.

What I can’t figure out is why this was leaked. To be clear, there are no ‚old fashioned‘ leaks on stuff like this except in extraordinary cases like Edward Snowden. When leaks like this happen — especially to the New York Times — it’s deliberate.

The ‚two Western officials‘ is vague but rules out Iran but it’s an odd thing for US officials to leak because it would seemingly escalate things towards a war that they seem to be trying to avoid.

Maybe this is a clue:

One Western official called it a major symbolic strike that was fairly
easy for Iran to repair and caused relatively little harm to civilians.
But, the official said, it sent a stark warning of the damage that
Israel could inflict, as conflict spreads across the Middle East and
tensions rise between Iran and its adversaries, notably Israel and the
United States

For me, that doesn’t add up because Iran would obviously know Israel is capable of sabotaging a pipeline, which is a trivial thing to do at the state level. Israel has sabotaged nuclear facilities in Iran and killed people, which are obviously tougher tasks.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what’s going on here. These are the three reporters behind the story:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Likely Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump will have to write another big check after he lost a civil fraud case in New York. A judge fined him $364 million and barred him from running any business in the state for three years.

During the three-month trial he was accused of inflating asset values in order to get better terms on loans.

“In order to borrow more and at lower rates, defendants submitted
blatantly false financial data to the accountants, resulting in
fraudulent financial statements,” presiding judge Arthur Engoron wrote. “When confronted at
trial with the statements, defendants’ fact and expert witnesses simply
denied reality, and defendants failed to accept responsibility or to
impose internal controls to prevent future recurrences.”

The case was littered with legal mistakes from Trump’s team.

He will surely appeal but under New York law he will be required to put up a large chunk of the damages in escrow.

In a separate case last year of sexual assault and defamation he lost and was fined $88.3 million.

He remains the betting favourite to be in the White House at this time next year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a fairly quiet session so far, underscored by some mixed signals in broader markets after yesterday’s action. The dollar is keeping steadier on the day, finding little conviction in European trading. That is somewhat understandable as we await more US data to come later today.

USD/JPY is up slightly by 0.2% with 10-year yields also slightly higher by 2 bps to 4.26%. That’s not much but at least the pair is holding back above 150.00 for now.

Meanwhile, other dollar pairs are even more lethargic today. EUR/USD is flattish around 1.0774 with large option expiries keeping price action in check. GBP/USD is also lightly changed after the UK retail sales report, holding just below 1.2600. Elsewhere, commodity currencies are also muted after the back and forth action against the dollar this week.

US futures are slightly higher but that’s not really translating to anything in FX at the moment. I mean, stocks are in a world of their own so that isn’t the most surprising thing.

It looks like we’re gearing towards the next set of US data to decide what comes next before the weekend. Coming up later, we’ll be getting US producer prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Those might offer something for traders to work with as we look to wrap up the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
  slight pushback against a March rate
  cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
  that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US Initial Claims beat
  expectations while Continuing Claims missed. Overall, the data remains steady.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
  leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
  expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
  drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

CAD

• The BoC left interest rates unchanged at
  5.00% as expected and dropped the language about being prepared to hike if
  needed.
• The latest Canadian CPI beat expectations across the board with
  the underlying inflation measures remaining elevated.
• On the labour market side, the latest report beat
  expectations but we saw a contraction in full-time employment and a fall in
  wage growth.
• The Canadian PMIs improved in
  January although they remain both in contractionary territory.
• The market expects the first rate
  cut in June.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD recently
broke out of the 1.3540 resistance
following the hot US CPI report but failed to sustain the rally as the pair
eventually erased all the gains. The price though made a new higher high so we
have a trendline now
where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below it to position
for a rally into the 1.3620 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the
bearish bets into the 1.3364 level.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more closely the
pop and fade after the US CPI release. There’s not much to do here other than
waiting for the price to reach the trendline where the buyers will look for a
reversal and the sellers for a breakout.

USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that if we
get a pullback from here, the sellers will likely lean on the downward
trendline where they will also find the confluence with
the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a new high.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the US PPI data and the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Tech shares are the ones leading the charge once again, with Nasdaq futures up 0.6% on the day. Dow futures are down slightly by 0.1%, so S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% at the balance currently.

It has been quite a breathtaking and unrelenting run in stocks since the end of October last year. And it doesn’t look like we’re stopping just yet.

The S&P 500 looks poised to retest record highs at the open later and the Nasdaq is getting ever closer to its own record highs. At the close yesterday, the latter is less than 2% shy of achieving just that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Cocoa is
currently experiencing unprecedented popularity, reaching an all-time high in
price on the New York exchange, hitting the $5800 mark by mid-February. The
price gained more than 30%, which is an all-time high. Let’s delve into the
factors driving this surge in the cocoa market and explore its potential
impacts on both markets and daily life.

To
begin, let’s take a look at the chart demonstrating cocoa price movements since
the beginning of 2024. The line is pretty straight. Additionally, as judged by the
volume indicator, the volume points are also high.

Over 30%
since the start of the year is massive, especially considering the relatively
short time frame of a month and a half. However, the following chart
illustrates even more remarkable growth. It began in 2023, with prices
skyrocketing by over 100%. Over the past five years, the increase has surpassed
150%.

However,
the critical change in the trend occurred not long ago – in 2023. There are two
factors affecting the industry that are tied to West African countries, Cote
d’Ivoire and Ghana, which are leaders in cocoa bean production.

The
first factor is the El Niño weather phenomenon, resulting in
warmer surface waters in the Pacific and subsequently causing hotter and drier
weather in the region. Such conditions lead to a decrease in harvest yields.

Simultaneously,
the cocoa trees are afflicted by the cacao swollen shoot virus, which has
plagued African farmers for the past few years. What’s more, they can’t replant
trees on the affected land for five years following the onset of the virus.
Earlier, farmers relocated to other forests to plant cocoa trees, but this
practice is restricted to preserve forests. With no cure for this disease, many
producers have opted to switch to alternative agricultural ventures.

Both of
these factors have significantly reduced cocoa supply, a trend that continues
to persist. Additionally, global tensions, such as those in the Red Sea, further exacerbate
concerns surrounding trade routes.

The
growth of cocoa prices naturally impacts both chocolate producers and
chocoholics. Higher prices may lead to increased costs for chocolate products,
potentially resulting in decreased sales volumes as consumers seek to
economize. However, the immediate effects of these changes may not be readily
apparent, as candy makers may choose to maintain prices to retain their
customer base.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Xsolla, a global video game commerce company, announces its next chapter of strategic growth and innovation. This transformation, building on the successful foundations laid over the past year, is tailored to leveraging the strengths of Xsolla’s founder and an expanded roster of industry professionals, guiding it through an increased global presence and product development era.

Having spent the last two years working on new ventures and innovative growth opportunities, Shurick Agapitov, Founder and CEO of Xsolla, continues shaping the vision for the fintech and gaming industries. Founded on a vision for growth, Xsolla is continuously innovating to stay ahead of the curve in the global gaming and financial space. His vision for international growth is founded on creating equal economic growth opportunities for everyone in and connected to the gaming industry around the world. He recently became an author and announced the release of his book Once Upon Tomorrow, providing his visionary view of the metaverse and content creation.

Chris Hewish is transitioning to the Chief Strategy Officer position at Xsolla. Chris’s vital role in shaping Xsolla’s trajectory will now be augmented with new responsibilities, focusing on global initiatives, strategic partnerships, and collaborations with publishers. Leveraging his decades of experience in publishing, he will continue to provide guidance and leadership for the Xsolla businesses through strategic partnerships and opportunities with publishers.

Previously of Epic Games, David Stelzer joined as President to continue enhancing Xsolla’s Web Shop, Cloud, and Foundational offerings, aiming for greater accessibility and benefit to the global gaming community. His industry experience and leadership reflect the company’s commitment to innovation and accessibility worldwide.

Introducing the Leadership Team and Their Strategic Vision:

Chris Hewish, Chief Strategy Officer, Xsolla: „In my expanded role, I look forward to leveraging my experience and passion for bringing great games to market to further our strategic objectives and continuing to help Xsolla as it enters this next phase of growth.“

David Stelzer, President: „My goal is to enhance our direct-to-consumer offerings, building upon the strong foundation laid before, and to expand their accessibility and value to the gaming community worldwide.“

Berkley Egenes, Chief Marketing & Growth Officer: „We’re shaping marketing strategies that transcend boundaries, ensuring our brand resonates with and inclusively represents the diverse tapestry of the global gaming community for developers and players alike.“

Moin Moinuddin, Chief Technology Officer: „Leading the technology frontier, we’re innovating accessible solutions that drive the future of gaming, making advanced technologies a reality for everyone.“

Sophia Lisaius, VP of People & Culture: „Our mission is to cultivate a nurturing workplace that champions growth, diversity, and innovation, where every team member contributes to the transformative journey of the gaming community.“

Anton Zelenin, Chief Product Officer, Commerce & Payments Solutions: “My focus will be to continue to scale and expand our payments-related solutions for developers to grow their business in new geographies and through new partnerships.”

Carla Bedrosian, Global General Counsel: „As Global General Counsel, my mission is to fortify Xsolla’s growth with robust legal strategies, ensuring our global expansion and innovation continue on the solid foundation of integrity and compliance. It’s an exciting time to navigate the evolving landscape of gaming commerce.“

Mike Dershewitz, COO of Xsolla Holding Company: „We’re building operational excellence that supports global outreach and anchors our commitment to a seamless and expansive gaming experience.“

Ketei Marakool, CFO of Xsolla Holding Company: „It’s exciting to be part of a leadership team where we build the foundation for efficiency and scalability by implementing best practices to cater for the future growth and expansion in the gaming industry.“

Charles Lee, CTO of Xsolla Holding Company: “As Chief Tax Officer, I’m committed to optimizing Xsolla’s financial efficiency and compliance. Through strategic tax planning and a proactive approach to regulatory changes, I aim to ensure our continued growth and success in a dynamic business landscape.”

As Xsolla steps into 2024, this empowered leadership team is set to navigate the complexities of the gaming industry with innovative strategies and a vision for comprehensive growth for its partners. The company stands on the brink of a transformative era, poised to make significant strides in the global gaming market. This new phase, under the visionary leadership of Shurick Agapitov and his team, represents an exciting future for Xsolla as it continues to shape the landscape of gaming commerce.

About Xsolla

Xsolla (https://xsolla.com/) is a global video game commerce company with a robust and powerful set of tools and services designed specifically for the industry. Since its founding in 2005, Xsolla has helped thousands of game developers and publishers of all sizes fund, market, launch and monetize their games globally and across multiple platforms. As an innovative leader in game commerce, Xsolla’s mission is to solve the inherent complexities of global distribution, marketing, and monetization to help our partners reach more geographies, generate more revenue, and create relationships with gamers worldwide. Headquartered and incorporated in Los Angeles, California, with offices in London, Berlin, Seoul, Beijing, Kuala Lumpur, Raleigh, Tokyo, and cities around the world, Xsolla supports major gaming titles like Valve, Twitch, Roblox, Epic Games, Take-Two, KRAFTON, Nexters, NetEase, Playstudios, Playrix, miHoYo, and more.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

After the US CPI data on Tuesday, the dollar ran hot and was strongly bid across the board as both stocks and bonds fell. But since then, there was no real follow through and not surprisingly so I would say. As mentioned here, the next leg higher for the dollar might be tougher to come by and the bond market needs to play ball as well.

And in the last two days, that hasn’t quite been the case. 10-year Treasury yields are now down to 4.226% as compared to the post-CPI high of 4.316%. That is inviting key questions on the dollar’s supposed break higher this week. Let’s take a look.

1. EUR/USD is now trading back to 1.0735, above its December low of 1.0723. Is the break lower on Tuesday a fake out?
2. USD/JPY jumped above 150.00 for the first time since November last year. However, it is struggling to keep at it as price now falls back to test the figure level today. Can buyers hold their ground?
3. USD/CAD looked like it shook off the January high of 1.3542 to break out of range. But it is now falling back towards that range alongside a failed push above its 100-day moving average, seen at 1.3556 currently. Are sellers going to seize more control from here on?
4. Gold fell back below the $2,000 mark for the first time in two months. However, buyers are holding on at the 100-day moving average seen at $1,990.86 currently. Are we setting up for a rebound or are dollar bulls going to try for another push lower?

Those are some juicy technical considerations and it all hinges on what the bond market does next too. 10-year yields broke above the range between 3.80% and 4.20% on the CPI data this week. But if we are to see yields fall back into that range after the slew of US data today, that will be a major setback for dollar bulls.

If so, expect that to provide a tailwind for risk trades – which have already started an early rebound in trading yesterday.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
  slight pushback against a March rate
  cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
  that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
• The latest US GDP beat
  expectations by a big margin.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US NFP report
  beat expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
  leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
  expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
  drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence report came in line with expectations but
  the labour market details improved considerably.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI came
  in line with expectations with the disinflationary process continuing steady.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Manufacturing side but missed on the Services one with both
  measures remaining in contraction.
• The ECB members recently have been pushing back
  against the aggressive rate cuts expectations placing more weight on wage
  growth and data dependency.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in April.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD dropped
back into the key support around
the 1.07 handle following the hot US CPI report. The price bounced as the
buyers stepped in again to position for a rally into the trendline
targeting a break above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.05 handle
next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower diverged with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it might signal a correction all the way back to the
trendline where we have the confluence with the
1.08 handle. That’s where the sellers will likely step in more aggressively
with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a breakout below the
1.07 support.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been consolidating inside the 1.0723 and 1.0736 range. Today we have
some key economic releases and a break on either side supported by the data
should trigger a more sustained move in the direction of the breakout, so watch
out for that.

Upcoming Events

Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures and the US Retail Sales data, while tomorrow we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.