Last
Friday, the Dow Jones pulled back as a hot US PPI report
weighed on the market. In fact, the Treasury yields rose, and the rate cuts
expectations got trimmed some more as fears of stickier inflation started to
creeping in. The Fed members though keep on dismissing the latest figures as
something expected and continue to repeat that the disinflationary trend
remains intact. This suggests that the Fed is not even considering rate hikes
and in the worst-case scenario could just delay rate cuts. The market might
continue to like this as long as the economic data remains good. Today the
market will be closed for the Presidents Day and will resume trading tomorrow.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones broke
below the trendline and
bounced on the red 21 moving average to end
up back around the highs. The divergence with the
MACD
generally signals a weakening momentum which is often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, the targets for the sellers should be the 37777 support and the
37066 swing low. The buyers will need the price to break the all-time high to
invalidate the bearish setup and position for even higher highs.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
also had the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence around
the daily red 21 moving average. The price is now around the highs, and this is
where the sellers are likely to pile in with a defined risk above the all-time
high to position for a drop into the 37777 support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a support zone around the 38500 level where we can find the Fibonacci
retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect
the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 37777 level.

Upcoming Events

This week is basically empty on the data front with just
the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday followed by the US Jobless
Claims and the US PMIs on Thursday.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

From earlier: Long weekend in the US casts a shadow over markets to start the week

The changes among major currencies are leaving a lot to be desired. We’re essentially in a three-day weekend as traders struggle to find much appetite to start the new week. The narrow ranges among dollar pairs are still largely holding, even as we greet European traders on the day.

The less than 20 pips range in EUR/USD exemplifies the rather dour mood so far on the session.

USD/JPY is a touch lower as it continues to dance in and around the 150.00 mark. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is slightly higher but still faces stiff resistance on the daily chart near 0.6150-73.

The moves there are already nothing to shout about but it’s even more subdued when you look at the remaining major currencies.

So far, the overall risk mood remains steady. However, with US markets closed, we’re not likely to get much to work with until tomorrow comes unfortunately.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The importance of Forex
expos in 2024 cannot be overstated as these events play a pivotal role in
connecting industry professionals, fostering knowledge exchange, and addressing
the evolving landscape of emerging markets.

As the Forex market in
Africa experiences a surge in interest and participation, mostly propelled by
technological advancements and increased accessibility, the upcoming expos
certainly hold the potential to shape the trajectory of the continent’s
financial landscape.

The Forex expos slated
for Africa in 2024 are poised to offer valuable insights and opportunities

These events feature
expert panels and a diverse range of exhibitors showcasing the latest
technologies. As such, attendees can leverage them not only to gain a deeper
understanding of market trends but also to engage in strategic networking that
can lead to collaborations and alliances.

The intertwined aspects
of knowledge, networking, and investment opportunities form the foundation of
these expos, offering attendees a unique chance to navigate the complexities of
the Forex market in the continent.

Current Trends and
Future of Africa’s Forex Market

Presently, the Forex
market in Africa is experiencing a notable upswing, marked by increased
interest, growing participation, and a steady infusion of technological
advancements.

As accessibility to
online trading platforms expands across the continent, more individuals are
venturing into the Forex market. This surge in participation is complemented by
a heightened awareness of financial markets, driven in part by educational initiatives
and the democratization of information.

However, despite this
positive momentum, the African Forex market grapples with challenges such as
regulatory complexities and the need for comprehensive market education.
Regulatory frameworks across different countries on the continent vary, posing
hurdles for market participants.

Additionally, there is
a prevailing need for robust educational programs to equip traders with the
necessary skills and knowledge to navigate the intricacies of Forex trading
effectively.

Looking toward the
future, the African Forex market holds immense potential for growth and
maturation. The ongoing technological revolution, characterized by the adoption
of advanced trading tools, artificial intelligence, and blockchain, is likely
to redefine the landscape.

As regulatory
frameworks become more streamlined and transparent, it is anticipated that the
Forex market will become more accessible, attracting a broader demographic of
traders.

Furthermore, the
potential for increased collaboration between African countries and global
financial institutions could contribute to the development of a more
interconnected and robust Forex ecosystem.

A unified approach to
regulatory standards and educational initiatives across the continent would not
only foster a more secure trading environment but also enhance the credibility
of the African Forex market on the global stage.

Top Forex Expos in
Africa 2024

These 4 Forex expos in
Africa for 2024 are distinguished by their locations, duration, and specific
focus areas. Whether in Lagos or Johannesburg, each one of them aims to provide
a unique and valuable experience for attendees, combining knowledge-sharing,
networking, and exposure to the latest technologies in the Forex market.

iFXShow Lagos 2024

· Date: March 16, 2024

· Location: Balmoral
Convention Center, Ikeja, Maryland, Ikeja 101233, Lagos

Special Features:

iFXShow Lagos stands out for its
strategic location, taking place in the vibrant financial hub of Lagos. The
event promises a single-day immersive experience, offering attendees the
opportunity to delve into the latest trends, network with industry leaders, and
explore cutting-edge technologies.

Money Expo Nigeria 2024

· Date: April 29-30, 2024

· Location: Landmark
Centre, Lagos, Nigeria

Special Features:

Money Expo Nigeria is a two-day event set
in the bustling city of Lagos which brings together a diverse range of
exhibitors and provides a platform for in-depth discussions on financial
trends, investment opportunities, and technological advancements in the Forex
market.

FMAS:24

· Date: May 27-29, 2024

· Location: Johannesburg,
South Africa

Special Features:

FMAS:24
stands out as a remarkable convergence of both B2B and B2C interactions.
Tailored for individuals and businesses keen on exploring the realms of online
trading, fintech, crypto, digital assets, and payments, this summit provides a
dynamic platform for networking, learning, and establishing meaningful
connections.

With over a decade of
experience in hosting premium fintech events, FMAS:24 is a testament to the
organizers‘ commitment to showcasing the unique opportunities within the
African region.

The summit brings
together a wealth of local expertise and global insights, fostering innovation
and collaboration in the heart of Africa’s vibrant financial sector.

Organizer’s Insight:

Organized by FMevents,
FMAS:24 serves as a testament to South Africa’s position as a key player in the
fintech landscape. The event encapsulates the spirit of innovation and
collaboration, making it a must-attend expo for anyone seeking to navigate the
evolving landscape of online trading, financial services, and emerging
technologies.

Existing traders and
those interested in financial markets can connect with leading online brokers,
educators, and experts to delve into the intricacies of online trading.

Simultaneously,
businesses in the financial services sector can cultivate new connections,
promote their products and services, and explore potential opportunities in a
dynamic and collaborative environment.

Traders Fair South Africa

· Date: September 21,
2024

· Location: Johannesburg,
South Africa

Special Features:

Traders Fair South Africa is positioned later in
the year, offering a unique opportunity for participants to gain insights into
the evolving Forex market landscape. The expo stands out for its focus on
networking, providing a platform for traders, brokers, and industry experts to
forge meaningful connections.

Expert Tips for Forex
Expo Attendees

Before the Event

Prior to attending a
Forex expo, meticulous preparation is paramount for a fruitful experience.

Begin by delving into
the backgrounds and expertise of the scheduled speakers and exhibitors. This
preliminary research aids in identifying key influencers and companies aligned
with your professional objectives, facilitating more meaningful interactions
during the event.

Furthermore, take
advantage of pre-registration opportunities for sessions. This ensures a
secured spot in high-demand sessions and enables you to plan your itinerary
strategically, optimizing your exposure to relevant content and networking
opportunities.

Lastly, set specific
goals for your attendance – whether focused on gaining industry insights,
expanding your network, or exploring potential partnerships. Having clear
objectives serves as a guiding framework throughout the expo.

During the Event

Once immersed in the
event, prioritize attendance at sessions and workshops aligned with your
predefined goals and interests.

Actively engage in
workshops to foster hands-on learning and skill development. Concurrently,
seize the multitude of networking activities available.

Approach formal and
informal networking events with a well-prepared introduction that succinctly
communicates your interests and objectives. Engaging with industry
professionals in a purposeful manner can lay the foundation for enduring
connections.

Additionally,
conscientiously take notes during sessions and conversations, capturing key
insights for future reference. Collecting business cards and contact
information ensures a systematic approach to post-event follow-ups.

After the Event

Post-event, take the
time to reflect on the information acquired during the expo.

Review and organize
your notes, identifying actionable insights and categorizing contacts for
efficient follow-up.

Following up with
contacts made during the expo is crucial for relationship building. Sending
personalized follow-up emails expressing interest in potential collaborations
or partnerships solidifies the connections established during the event.

Finally, integrate the
newfound knowledge into your trading strategies. The continuous evolution of
the Forex market demands adaptability, and incorporating insights gained from
the expo ensures that your approach remains relevant and informed.

Mastering Networking at
Forex Expos

Networking stands as a
cornerstone in the realm of Forex expos, holding immense significance for
attendees. The connections forged during these events often transcend beyond the
expo floor, evolving into potential collaborations, partnerships, and
invaluable industry insights.

Effective networking
opens doors to a myriad of opportunities, making it an indispensable component
of a successful expo experience.

In-Person Networking

In the context of
in-person networking, the significance lies in face-to-face interactions that
foster a deeper and more immediate connection. To optimize this experience:

· Craft a concise and
compelling elevator pitch, providing a clear snapshot of who you are and your
objectives.

· Exchange business cards
strategically, ensuring that the information you share is both accessible and
memorable.

· Actively participate in
organized networking events and informal social gatherings to enhance your
visibility and accessibility within the industry.

Online Networking:

In the virtual realm,
where online networking plays a pivotal role, the significance is attributed to
the flexibility and accessibility it offers. Employ the following tips for
effective online networking:

· Utilize virtual
platforms for one-on-one meetings, facilitating personalized interactions in a
virtual setting.

· Engage proactively in
discussion forums and chat groups, where real-time conversations allow for
meaningful connections.

· Follow up with
personalized messages after virtual interactions, solidifying connections made
during online networking sessions.

The intersection of
these in-person and online networking approaches contributes to a comprehensive
networking strategy.

In fact, the
significance of networking extends beyond the event itself, offering a gateway
to lasting professional relationships and collaborative opportunities within
the dynamic landscape of the Forex industry.

Conclusion

Forex expos have the
transformative power to elevate the landscape of the financial industry by
catalyzing improvements in knowledge, networking, and investment opportunities.

Firstly, these events
serve as educational hubs, offering a platform where industry professionals can
delve into the latest market trends, technological advancements, and strategic
insights. Attendees gain a comprehensive understanding of the Forex market’s
dynamics, empowering them to make informed decisions and stay ahead in a
rapidly evolving industry.

Secondly, the
networking opportunities presented at Forex expos are unparalleled. The
convergence of like-minded professionals, experts, and potential collaborators
creates an environment conducive to building lasting connections. In fact, the
significance of networking extends beyond the event itself, fostering
collaborations, partnerships, and the exchange of valuable industry insights.
Attendees leverage these connections to broaden their professional circles and
explore collaborative ventures that may not have been possible without the
networking opportunities afforded by these events.

Furthermore, Forex
expos act as a catalyst for enhancing investment chances. The exposure to a
diverse range of exhibitors, showcasing cutting-edge technologies and
innovative solutions, provides attendees with insights into potential
investment opportunities. The networking interactions, coupled with the
knowledge gained during the event, equip investors with a nuanced understanding
of market dynamics, risk management strategies, and emerging trends. This
informed approach to investments increases the likelihood of making sound
financial decisions in a dynamic and competitive market.

FAQ

How Can I Choose the
Right Forex Expo to Attend in 2024?

Choosing the right
Forex expo to attend in 2024 requires a thoughtful consideration of various
factors to ensure that the event aligns with your professional goals and
expectations.

Here are 10 key
criteria one should always consider:

1.
Reputation
of the expo: Research the reputation of the expo by reviewing feedback from
previous attendees and industry professionals. A well-established and reputable
event is more likely to deliver value.

2.
Speakers
and panelists: Evaluate the lineup of speakers and panelists. A high-caliber
speaker roster with industry experts, thought leaders, and experienced
professionals indicates the potential for insightful discussions and valuable
knowledge exchange.

3.
Relevance
of topics: Assess the relevance of the topics covered in the event’s agenda.
Look for ones that address current industry trends, technological advancements,
and regulatory developments to ensure the content is aligned with your
interests and objectives.

4.
Networking
opportunities: Examine the networking opportunities provided by the expo.
Events with well-organized networking sessions, social gatherings, and
interactive activities create an environment conducive to building meaningful
connections.

5.
Exhibitors
and sponsors: Investigate the list of exhibitors and sponsors participating in
the expo. A diverse range of exhibitors, including technology providers,
financial institutions, and service providers, enhances the overall experience
and offers opportunities for collaboration.

6.
Educational
workshops and sessions: Check for the availability of educational workshops and
sessions. Events that offer hands-on workshops and in-depth educational
sessions provide practical insights and skill development opportunities.

7.
Accessibility
and location: Consider the accessibility and location of the event. Choose one located
in a convenient and accessible venue, making it easier for you to attend and
participate without logistical challenges.

8.
Cost
and value for money: Evaluate the cost of attending the expo in relation to the
value it offers. Assess whether the registration fees are justified by the
quality of speakers, networking opportunities, and the overall content
provided.

9.
Reviews
and recommendations: Seek reviews and recommendations from peers or industry colleagues
who have attended previous editions. Personal insights can provide valuable
information about the overall experience and benefits gained.

10.Diversity
of attendees: Consider the diversity of attendees. Expos with a broad
representation of industry professionals, including traders, investors,
educators, and policymakers, offer a richer networking environment and diverse
perspectives.

What Should I Prepare
Before Attending a Forex Expo?

Preparing thoroughly
before attending a Forex expo is crucial to maximizing your experience and
extracting the most value from the event.Preparation is paramount when
gearing up for a Forex expo. Before attending, conducting comprehensive
research on the expo is essential.

What are Forex Expos
and Why are They Important?

Forex expos are
prominent events within the financial industry designed to bring together
professionals, enthusiasts, and experts in the field of Forex trading. These events
serve as comprehensive platforms where participants can engage in a myriad of
activities.

Their primary
objectives revolve around knowledge dissemination, networking, and the
showcasing of industry innovations. As such, these events typically feature
keynote speakers and expert panels, providing attendees with insights into
market trends, regulatory developments, and advanced trading strategies.
Educational workshops and sessions are also common, catering to both beginners
seeking foundational knowledge and seasoned traders looking to refine their
skills.

Networking also holds a
central position in the objectives of Forex expos. These events facilitate the
convergence of traders, brokers, educators, and technology providers, fostering
an environment conducive to building professional relationships and
collaborations. The networking opportunities extend beyond formal sessions to
include social gatherings, where participants can exchange ideas, discuss
market dynamics, and establish connections that may prove invaluable in their
professional journeys.

These events also serve
as platforms for exhibitors, including brokerage firms, technology providers,
and service companies, to showcase their products and services. This exposure
not only benefits exhibitors by connecting them with potential clients and
partners but also offers attendees a firsthand look at the latest technologies,
tools, and solutions available in the Forex trading landscape.

For anyone in the Forex
trading industry, attending these expos is essential for several reasons.
Firstly, they provide an unparalleled opportunity to stay abreast of industry
developments, gaining insights from thought leaders and experts. Secondly, the
networking opportunities facilitate the establishment of connections with
peers, mentors, and potential collaborators. Thirdly, exposure to new
technologies and innovations equips attendees with the knowledge to adapt to
the evolving landscape of Forex trading, enhancing their competitiveness in the
market.

What are the Key
Differences Between In-Person and Virtual Forex Expos?

The key differences
between in-person and virtual Forex expos stem from the distinct formats they
adopt, each presenting unique advantages and challenges for attendees.

Understanding these
differences is essential for participants to tailor their approach and maximize
the benefits of either format.

In-Person Forex Expos Pros:

· Networking opportunities:
In-person expos provide unparalleled opportunities for face-to-face networking
as attendees can engage in spontaneous conversations, build meaningful
connections, and establish a more personal rapport with industry professionals.

· Hands-on experience:
Physical expos often feature live trading sessions, interactive workshops, and
product demonstrations, offering attendees a hands-on experience with the
latest technologies and trading tools.

· Immersive environment:
The physical presence at an expo creates an immersive environment, allowing
participants to fully engage with the atmosphere, presentations, and
exhibitors.

In-Person Forex Expos Cons:

· Logistical challenges:
Attendees may face challenges related to travel, accommodation, and other
logistical arrangements, which can be time-consuming and costly.

· Limited accessibility:
Physical attendance may be limited by geographical constraints or personal
circumstances, preventing some individuals from benefiting fully.

· Time constraints:
In-person expos typically have fixed schedules, and attendees must adhere to
specific timelines for sessions and networking events.

Virtual Forex Expos
Pros:

· Global accessibility:
Virtual expos break down geographical barriers, allowing participants from
around the world to attend without the need for travel.

· Cost-efficient: Virtual
attendance eliminates travel expenses, making it a more cost-effective option
for participants.

· Flexible schedule:
Attendees can participate in virtual expos from the comfort of their own space,
offering flexibility in managing their schedules.

Virtual Forex Expos Cons:

· Limited networking
dynamics: While virtual expos provide networking opportunities through online
platforms, the dynamics differ from face-to-face interactions, potentially
leading to less personal connections.

· Technical challenges:
Virtual events may encounter technical issues, such as internet connectivity
problems or platform glitches, impacting the overall experience.

· Potential distractions:
Participants may face distractions from their home or office environment,
potentially diminishing their focus on expo activities.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday:
  US/Canada
  Holiday, Canada PPI.
• Tuesday:
  RBA
  Meeting Minutes, PBoC LPR, Canada CPI, New Zealand PPI.
• Wednesday:
  Australia
  Wage data, FOMC Meeting Minutes.
• Thursday:
  Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US
  Flash PMIs, ECB Minutes, Canada Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, New
  Zealand Retail Sales.
• Friday:
  Japan
  Holiday, German IFO.

Tuesday

The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates
unchanged at 3.45% for the 1-year and 4.20% for the 5-year. The MLF decision is
generally a precursor for the LPR change and the PBoC decided to keep the rate
unchanged at 2.50% on Sunday. The central bank surprised
recently by cutting the RRR by 50bps vs. 25 bps expected and sparked a rally in
the stock market (although most of the gains were
erased in the following weeks). There’s a very low chance of a cut at this
point and if the market was positioned for such an outcome, then we might see the disappointment already on Monday.

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2%
vs. 3.4% while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. The BoC is
focused on the underlying inflation measures (common, median and trimmed mean)
and although the rates are getting closer to the 1-3% target range, the central
bank wants to see more progress both on inflation and wage growth fronts.
As a reminder, the last
inflation report went in the opposite
direction with the underlying figures reaccelerating.

Wednesday

The Australian Q4 Wage Growth Y/Y is
expected at 4.1% vs. 4.0% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.9% vs. 1.3%
prior. The RBA is expecting wage growth to ease as the labour market comes
into better balance. The last week’s ugly labour
market report is indeed pointing into
that direction.

Thursday

Thursday will be the Flash PMIs day for
many major economies, but the market will likely focus on the US ones:

• Eurozone Manufacturing
  PMI 47.1 vs. 46.6 prior.
• Eurozone Services PMI
  48.7 vs. 48.4 prior.
• UK Manufacturing PMI 47.1
  vs. 47.0 prior.
• UK Services PMI 54.4 vs.
  54.3 prior.
• US Manufacturing PMI 50.2
  vs. 50.7 prior.
• US Services PMI 52.0 vs.
  52.5 prior.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 217K vs. 212K prior,
while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing
although the last week’s data showed an increase to 1895K vs. 1865K prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, left its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged at 2.5% on Sunday.

Surveys had shown around two thirds of analysts had expected the rate to be unchanged, others expecting a small cut.

500 billion yuan will be injected as one-year loans

• 499 bn yuan mature, which means a net injection of 1 bn yuan
• In Open Marker Operations the Bank injected 105bn yuan

No signs of monetary policy relief from China in this today. The most recent easing from the PBOC was the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) earlier this month:

• PBOC to cut reserve requirement ratio from 5 February

The People’s Bank of China

—

What is the MLF?

The PBOC’s MLF rate is a benchmark interest rate that banks in China can use to borrow funds from the People’s Bank of China for a period of 6 months to 1 year, as medium-term liquidity to commercial banks.

• The rate is typically announced on the 15th of each month. Last week was a holiday in China, hence the announcement today
• The interest rate on the MLF loans is typically higher than the benchmark lending rate (more on these below), which encourages banks to use the facility only when they face a shortage of funds.
• MLF loans are secured by collateral, which can be a wide range of assets including bonds, stocks, and other financial instruments. The collateral ensures that the PBOC can recover the funds if the borrower defaults on the loan.

The MLF rate sets the scene for the monthly Loan Prime Rate (LPR) setting on the 20th of each month. Current LPR rates are:

• 3.45% for the one year
• 4.20% for the five year

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A technical look at the major currency pairs for the week starting February 19, 2024:

EURUSD:

USDJPY:

GBPUSD:

USDCHF:

USDCAD:

AUDUSD:

NZDUSD:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The following video shows my opion and bitcoin price forecast with some trade ideas

• Current Position: Bitcoin hovers around $51,615, facing double resistance. 🚫📈
• Market Movement: Recent break from a bullish pattern, now at a pivotal bearish juncture. 📉🐻
• Trade Strategy: Bearish bias with a stop-loss above $54,300 for risk management. 🛑💡
• Position Sizing: Adjust size for an optimal reward-to-risk ratio; aim for meaningful profits. ⚖️💼
• Profit Targets: First partial profit at a cautious 1.32 reward-to-risk, with a long-term aim below $50,000. 🎯💵
• Adjustments: Refine stop-loss and targets for a potential average ratio of 1.65, enhancing trade viability. 🔧📊
• Risk Mitigation: For non-traders, consider reducing exposure to mitigate risk at this uncertain juncture. 🛡️👀

This snapshot provides a strategic outlook for navigating Bitcoin’s volatility. Remember, trade wisely and at your own risk. For more detailed guidance and updates, as well as other views, follow ForexLive.com. 🌐💡

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• US January PPI +0.9% vs +0.6% expected
• US February UMich prelim consumer sentiment 79.6 vs 80.0 expected
• US January housing starts 1.331 million versus 1.460 million estimate
• SF Fed Pres.Mary Daly: More work to do on inflation
• Daly Q&A: None of the recent data was surprising
• BOE’s Pill: Getting to the point of reducing Bank Rates „still some way off“
• Joe Manchin won’t run for President – report
• Trump fined $364 million in fraud case
• Fed’s Bostic says he was a little surprised by CPI report
• Baker Hughes rig count -2 in the current week.
• Fed’s Barr: Supervisors closely focused on commercial real estate risks
• Fed’s Barkin: January economic data has been messy, not that good
• Canada December wholesale sales +0.3% vs +0.8% expected

Markets:

• Gold up $9 to $2013
• US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 4.28%
• WTI crude oil up $1.20 to $79.23
• S&P 500 down 0.5%
• NZD leads, JPY lags

The hot PPI reading initially looked like it would kick off something like CPI did earlier in the week, albeit at a smaller scale. The dollar initially sold off, stocks fell and yields popped but it didn’t last. The dollar highs for the day were immediately after the release and then the questions started.

As I highlighted before the release, there might be seasonal adjustment factors at play in January BLS inflation data. CPI and import/export prices were both surprisingly high and now PPI has joined in to complete the trio. Those are three different data sets but all are seasonally adjusted so maybe there is something going on? January is particularly hard to adjust for because of turn-of-the-year price resets.

Or maybe I’m overthinking it. Fed officials today again brushed off the high inflation numbers, highlighting instead that the trend remains down. The big turn in the markets this week came after the Powell leak on Tuesday and that has grown into the consensus.

In any case, the dollar gave back all its PPI gains in about 90 minutes and then continued even lower against the euro, pound and Australian dollar. However those overshoots were later faded as stocks were hit by late selling. I’m not sure if those late moves in stocks were on options expiration, Middle East worries or the long weekend but the moves accelerated late. The air also came out of SMCI so maybe that’s a sign that the bubble is deflating in AI (though I doubt it’s bursting).

Ultimately, most FX levels finished close to flat. I’ll be watching on Sunday for news out of the PBOC on rates and I suspect some of the buying in Chinese stocks, copper and antipodeans on Friday were related to rate cut hopes/signals, or some other kind of stimulus.

Commodities were notable outperformers across the board with gold quickly rebounding from the PPI number and oil bouncing around before finishing just below the January high That will be an interesting spot to watch in the week ahead.

Enjoy the long weekend.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day and for the trading week. The declines for the weeks snap a 5-week winning streak. The declines on the day come after two days of higher closes. The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 were the biggest losers as rates moved higher, and some of the high flyers saw profit-taking.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average fell -145.15 points or -0.37% at 38627.98
• S&P index fell -24.16 points or -0.48% at 5005.56
• NASDAQ index fell -130.53 points or -0.82% at 15775.64

For the Russell 2000 it fell -28.73 points or -1.39% at 2032.74

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial Average fell -0.11%
• S&P index fell -0.42%
• NASDAQ index fell -1.34%

For the Russell 2000 and actually rose 1.132% this week.

Looking at some of the big movers:

• Super Micro Computers after extending up to a high $1077, tumbled and closed at $803 down $201 or -20.02%.. Despite the tumbled the shares still rose 8.51% this week
• Adobe tumbled $-43.78 or -7.41% to $546.66. Shares of Adobe fell -12.84% this week.
• Meta fell $-10.70 or -2.21% at $473.33. For the week who rose 1.11%
• Alphabet fell $-2.25 or -1.58% at $140.52. For the week shares tumbled -5.69%
• Microsoft fell $-2.50 or -0.61% at $404.06. For the week the shares fell -3.92%
• Arm Holdings fell $-5.34 or -3.99% at $128.34. For the week, the shares still rose 11.4%.
• Broadcom fell $-19.59 or -1.55% at 1245.48. For the week, the shares fell -2.96%
• Micron fell $-2.13 or -2.61% at $79.50. For the week, the shares fell -7.08%
• Apple fell $-1.56 or -0.85% at $182.24. For the week, shares-5.69%
• Nvidia shares fell $-0.45 or -0.06% at $726.13. For the week, shares rose 0.66%. Nvidia reports its earnings next week.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s the latest from the New York Times:

Israel carried out covert attacks on two major gas pipelines inside Iran
this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces
with millions of people, according to two Western officials and a
military strategist affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Now I don’t know if that’s true or false. Earlier blame was placed groups in Saudi Arabia and other enemies in Iran. A chemical factory explosion was also done by Israel, according to the report.

What I can’t figure out is why this was leaked. To be clear, there are no ‚old fashioned‘ leaks on stuff like this except in extraordinary cases like Edward Snowden. When leaks like this happen — especially to the New York Times — it’s deliberate.

The ‚two Western officials‘ is vague but rules out Iran but it’s an odd thing for US officials to leak because it would seemingly escalate things towards a war that they seem to be trying to avoid.

Maybe this is a clue:

One Western official called it a major symbolic strike that was fairly
easy for Iran to repair and caused relatively little harm to civilians.
But, the official said, it sent a stark warning of the damage that
Israel could inflict, as conflict spreads across the Middle East and
tensions rise between Iran and its adversaries, notably Israel and the
United States

For me, that doesn’t add up because Iran would obviously know Israel is capable of sabotaging a pipeline, which is a trivial thing to do at the state level. Israel has sabotaged nuclear facilities in Iran and killed people, which are obviously tougher tasks.

Your guess is as good as mine as to what’s going on here. These are the three reporters behind the story:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.