The price is now down 1.6% on the day to $39,100 and threatens a much steeper drop below the $40,000 mark. This comes as we are seeing a test up against its 100-day moving average (red line) of $39,230 and a break of that will see sellers exert more control over the latest downside run in Bitcoin.

As it turns out, the high in Bitcoin comes right as the ETF was launched and on its first day of trading. Since then, it has been a real drag as the buy the rumour, sell the fact playbook takes over. The question now is, how low can this go?

The ETF story has been a major disappointment to say the least and now that is put aside, what exactly is the spark for the next move higher? This looks like it can get a lot uglier before it gets any better.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

JustMarkets,
an esteemed player in the global brokerage arena, is thrilled to announce
significant upgrades to its partnership programs. The launch of the new Partner
Loyalty Program and enhancements to the Introducing Broker (IB) Program
mark a pivotal moment in the company’s mission to foster robust and rewarding
partnerships. These initiatives are set to revolutionize how partners engage,
offering unparalleled rewards and opportunities for growth.

Improved Introducing Broker Program

The IB
Program, crowned as the „Best IB/Affiliate Program 2023“ by Money
Expo, has undergone significant refinements to better serve the growing
community of JustMarkets partners. The program’s structure now features six
levels, each offering increasing benefits and potential earnings. From the
initial Partner status to the pinnacle Brilliant Partner level, every tier is
crafted to recognize and reward the effort and success of affiliates.

Noteworthy features of the enhanced
IB Program include:

·
Increased
commission potential, with partners earning up to $25 per lot.

·
The
introduction of a Boost Period for new partners, accelerating level progression
threefold during the initial three months.

·
An
automated rebate system that enhances client retention and satisfaction.

·
The
Subpartner Program, offering an additional commission stream by building a
network of sub-affiliates.

These
enhancements are part of JustMarkets‘ commitment to providing a dynamic,
rewarding, and growth-oriented partnership environment.

New Partner Loyalty Program

Starting
January 1st, 2024, JustMarkets is ushering in a new era of partner engagement
with the introduction of its Partner Loyalty Program. This program is designed
to surpass traditional reward schemes, focusing on appreciating and recognizing
the unwavering loyalty of partners. Participants can look forward to luxury
prizes, including international dream vacations, high-end cars, and substantial
cash rewards, reflecting JustMarkets‘ commitment to their partners‘ success.

The loyalty
program emphasizes simple yet impactful objectives: achieving targeted referred
trading volumes, maintaining a robust active client base, and ensuring
consistent client engagement. These milestones are seamlessly managed and
monitored via an intuitive Partner Area, ensuring transparency and ease of
access.

The program
signals a transition to a more luxurious and rewarding journey. With these
enhancements, JustMarkets invites partners worldwide to partake in a
partnership experience where dedication is celebrated with luxury.

Why JustMarkets Stands Out

JustMarkets
continues to be a broker of choice for many due to its unwavering commitment to
providing secure and advantageous trading conditions. Regulated by reputable
bodies including CySEC, FSA, FSCA, and FSC, JustMarkets offers a safe trading
environment. The broker boasts an expansive array of over 170 trading
instruments, catering to diverse trading preferences.

In 2023,
JustMarkets made strides by reducing spreads by 55% on popular assets, offering
swap-free trading for all accounts, and implementing Gap Protection to secure
trades against market volatility.

Also this
broker offers a $30
Welcome Bonus for every new trader, providing opportunity to test their
services without any investments. Along with this, all clients can get up to
120% Deposit Bonus on every deposit they make.

Furthermore,
JustMarkets provides its clients with comprehensive market analysis from
experienced in-house experts, ensuring traders have access to the latest market
insights and can make informed trading decisions.

All Markets at Your Fingertips

JustMarkets
is dedicated to ensuring that trading is as convenient and accessible as
possible. To this end, the broker has developed cutting-edge mobile
applications that allow clients worldwide to access global markets anytime,
anywhere. Recognizing the diverse needs of its global clientele, JustMarkets
has released two state-of-the-art trading apps, one for iOS and another for
Android users, thus embodying its commitment to providing top-notch trading
conditions for everyone.

These apps
are not static but are continuously evolving to meet and exceed user
expectations. A recent update has already enhanced user experience by
integrating the functionality of tracking open/closed positions and pending
orders for MT5 accounts. This feature allows traders to manage their trades and
monitor their success more effectively, directly from their mobile devices.

Copytrading Revolution

2023 marked
a significant leap forward for JustMarkets with the launch of the Copytrading
mobile app for iOS and Android. This app empowers investors to copy the trades
of seasoned traders, anytime and anywhere.

In
conjunction with the app, they introduced the New Trader’s Expertise Indicator
– a sophisticated tool designed to provide deeper insights into a trader’s risk
profile and strategy effectiveness.

The Vision and Mission

At the core
of JustMarkets‘ operations is a steadfast mission and vision. The mission,
„To create a convenient and transparent trading environment so that
everyone can reach their full investment potential,“ alongside the vision,
„To be the world’s most customer-centric broker,“ have been guiding
principles since the company’s inception in 2012. These core values underscore
every decision and enhancement made, aiming to provide the best possible
trading experience for all clients and partners.

Looking Ahead

With these
strategic enhancements and a continued focus on improving partnership
conditions, JustMarkets anticipates a surge in partner engagement and client
acquisition. The improved Partner Loyalty and IB Programs are more than just
enhancements; they represent JustMarkets‘ dedication to growth, excellence, and
the prosperity of its community.

As
JustMarkets continues to expand its services and reach, the question remains:
will you be part of this transformative journey toward successful trading and
rewarding partnerships? Join JustMarkets today and step into a world of
superior trading conditions and partnership opportunities.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The NBS says that any officials caught committing data fraud „will be found, investigated and dealt with, and will not be tolerated“. Adding that „statistical fraud is the biggest corruption in the field of statistics, which seriously violates the law and affects the quality of the data, obstructing and even misleading macro decision-making“.

For me, this just reads as yet another excuse as Beijing is looking for more scapegoats amid the growing backlash surrounding their approach on the Chinese economy. It isn’t so much so as the statistics that are the ones misleading politicians as the other way around. When the biggest names in the hierarchy are spouting numbers as they please, we all know that the statisticians in China have little choice but to find some workaround to fit that narrative. Otherwise, there will be hell to pay if the numbers don’t tally with the story.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Last Friday, the Dow Jones surged into another all-time
high following the strong University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment report as the market continues to see a goldilocks
economy. In fact, the US Jobless Claims have been improving and Retail Sales
surprised to the upside. Moreover, we have the US PCE data on Friday where we
will likely see another soft figure. On the other hand, the strong economic
data is making the market to price out the rate cuts, which might eventually
dent the economic and the stock market performance.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones last
Friday made yet another all-time high following the solid consumer sentiment
report. We can notice though that the price is diverging strongly
with the MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might get a fakeout and a drop back into the support around
the 37066 level which would give the buyers a better risk to reward setup.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see more
clearly the divergence with the MACD and the recent rally from the 37066
support zone. We can see that the price is a bit overstretched as depicted by
the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In
such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that there’s
not much where the buyers can lean onto given that we are in unexplored
territory. More aggressive buyers might want to step in as soon as the price
pulls back into the previous highs around the 37777 level. More conservative
buyers will want to see the price pulling back all the way to the 37450 level
where they will find the confluence from
the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand,
will likely pile in at every break lower targeting a break below the 37066
support.

Upcoming Events

This week is a bit more tranquil on the data front with
the major releases scheduled for the final part of the week. We begin on
Wednesday with the US PMIs while on Thursday we will see the Advance US Q4 GDP
and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday we conclude the
week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Growth is outpacing prices needed for virtuous cycle
• Will work on steps to pass on labour costs on to consumers
• Wage hikes at small and medium-sized businesses are essential

Come March and April, it will go without saying that there will be substantial wage hikes from corporates and the bigger Japanese firms. However, what may trouble Japan will be whether or not smaller firms – especially those in less populated regions – will be able to deliver on the same front. If there is to be a growing disparity in the next few cycles, that could grow into more of a problem for Japan in the years to come.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Amid a deluge of news of new protests, rocket launches, and a general
rise in geopolitical tensions, many have forgotten about the pandemic as if it
were a bad dream.

The problem is that it is not out of the question that we will face
another coronavirus in a couple of years, which could again affect the global
financial system, and even BTC ETF approval won’t help.

Given this high-risk factor, researchers have calculated the probability
of a pandemic capable of wiping out all human life, finding it statistically
likely within the next 12,000 years.

Not surprisingly, one of the critical issues discussed at the World
Economic Forum was the threat of a new „Disease X“.
According to WHO projections, it could be 20 times more dangerous than COVID.

What is it?

„Disease X“ is an unknown disease capable of causing a new
pandemic.

Incidentally, preparations for it have been underway since 2018. Had
they not prepared, the likely number of coronavirus victims would have been
higher.

In addition to new strains of COVID-19, there are many dangerous
pathogens and viruses, such as hemorrhagic fevers, Zika virus, Ebola virus, and
so on. And they appear regularly.

In short, it is still being determined which one will force countries to
close borders and reintroduce restrictive measures, but there will be one, and
we must be prepared for that scenario.

How do you prepare for something that has yet to arrive?

Governments, having learned from the bitter experience of coronaviruses,
have realized what measures work to reduce the spread of the virus and ease the
pressure on the health system.

Regarding disease treatments, scientists, in collaboration with
pharmaceutical companies, are constantly researching various viruses to
understand their behavior.

The only catch is that this requires investment and debates about the
emergence of another „Disease X“ will likely contribute to its rise.

So far, however, the shares of Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and
AstraZeneca have not reacted much. But things could change quickly if the
epidemiological situation deteriorates instantly.

How can we understand the risk of a new pandemic?

Unfortunately, the average investor does not have many tools to detect
this. It would be best to respond according to the situation, as it is
impossible to be fully prepared for all scenarios.

The only hope is that countries have learned from past experiences so we
can avoid widespread lockdowns and other draconian measures next time.

Still, it may be useful to utilize the volume
indicator to detect a change in market sentiment and thus understand
whether news of another virus discovered is worthy of concern.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday: PBoC
  LPR, New Zealand Services PMI.
• Tuesday: BoJ
  Policy Decision, New Zealand CPI.
• Wednesday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US
  Flash PMIs, BoC Policy Decision.
• Thursday: ECB
  Policy Decision, US Durable Goods Orders, US Jobless Claims, US Q4 Advance
  GDP.
• Friday: Tokyo
  CPI, US PCE.

Monday

The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates
unchanged at 3.45% for the 1-year and 4.20% for the 5-year following the MLF
decision last week. Deflationary forces
remain present, and the Chinese stock market is on a free fall with the general
sentiment being utterly dismal. It will likely require a strong catalyst to
turn things around and aggressive rate cuts might do it, so it’s worth to
keep an eye for eventual surprises.

Tuesday

The BoJ is expected to keep rates
unchanged at -0.10% with the 10-year JGB yield target at 0% with 1% as a
reference cap. The latest Japanese
CPI eased further across all measures and the
Average
Cash Earnings were a big
disappointment. The BoJ will likely reiterate once again that they are
focused on wage growth and the spring wage negotiations and that they will
not hesitate to take additional easing measures if needed.

The New Zealand CPI Y/Y is expected at
4.7% vs. 5.6% prior,
while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.6% vs. 1.8% prior. The data will have no
bearing on the February rate decision but will certainly influence the
market’s pricing with the first rate cut seen in May.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be the Flash PMIs day with
a particular focus on the Eurozone, UK and US data:

• Eurozone Manufacturing
  PMI 44.8 vs. 44.4 prior.
• Eurozone Services PMI
  49.0 vs. 48.8 prior.
• UK Manufacturing PMI 46.7
  vs. 46.2 prior.
• UK Services PMI 53.5 vs.
  53.4 prior.
• US Manufacturing PMI 48.0
  vs. 47.9 prior.
• US Services PMI 51.0 vs.
  51.4 prior.

The BoC is expected to keep rates
unchanged at 5.00%. The data out of Canada supports the central bank’s patient
approach as the underlying
inflation measures surprised to
the upside for the second consecutive month and the latest wage
growth figure spiked to the
highest level since 2021. The Bank of Canada has
been highlighting that it places a lot of focus on those two measures and
although it expects rate cuts to come this year, the timing is much more
uncertain and data dependent.

Thursday

The ECB is expected to keep interest rates
unchanged at 4.00%. The central bank officials have been consistently pushing
back against the aggressive rate cuts expectations with consensus for the first rate cut leaning for
June compared to the market’s April forecast. The latest data saw the Core
CPI Y/Y easing further although the M/M
measure showed a worrying 0.6% increase. The Unemployment
Rate continues to hover around record
lows and wage growth remains elevated, which is something that the ECB doesn’t
see as favourable for a return to their 2% target.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims after reaching a new cycle high started to trend
lower. This week the consensus sees Initial Claims at 200K vs. 187K prior,
while Continuing Claims are seen at 1840K vs. 1806K prior.

Friday

The US PCE Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs.
2.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. -0.1% prior. The Core PCE
Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs.3.2% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs.
0.1% prior which would make the 3-month and 6-month annualised rates fall to
1.5% and 1.9% respectively.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

J.P.Morgan has revised its interest rate outlook for the European Central Bank.

Sooner:

• JPM expect the first rate cut in June, having previously expected the first in September.
• the ECB ho hold in July
• and then cuts in both September and October

Deeper:

• JPM expect a total of 100bps in cuts, having previously expected 75

Analysts at the firm are wary of the trend in core inflation, saying its recent slowing may be the result of the dissipating of transitory factors and making the trend difficult to discern:

• They point to stronger wage data as a factor that cause some inflation „stickiness“.
• Say that the disruption to shipping due to Red Sea attacks could also add to pressure for higher inflation

***

JPM are calling the first ECB rate cut later than many other analysts are. Market pricing is for the April meeting (see below).

***

The ECB dates to watch this year:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• US January UMich prelim consumer sentiment 78.8 vs 70.0 expected
• US existing home sales for December 3.78M vs 3.82M estimate
• Canada November retail sales -0.2% vs 0.0% expected
• Fed’s Daly: It’s premature to think rate cuts are around the corner
• Feds Bostic: Wants to make sure inflation is on way to 2% before cuts
• Fed’s Goolsbee: If we make good progress on inflation, we need to factor that into rates
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -2 to 497
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 remains at 2.4%

Markets:

• S&P 500 up 59 points to all-time high close of 4839
• CAD leads, GBP lags
• Gold up $6 to $2028
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.13%
• WTI crude oil down 26-cents to $73.82

The big news was in the stock market where the S&P 500 broke through the 2021 intraday high. That’s certainly not a move that looked like it would happen early on as the market showed middling gains but steady bids starting at lunchtime in New York continued until late in the day.

The turn in equities weighed on the US dollar on most fronts. Cable climbed to 1.2702 from 1.2660 and the euro rose 25 pips to 1.0894.

In general, the dollar fell 20-30 pips across the board after earlier strengthening. One notable move was in the Canadian dollar, which strengthened despite a $1 intraday fall in oil. Canadian retail sales were poor in November but the December advanced number was better and that was enough to reverse some of the recent loonie losses. USD/CAD finished the week down 56 pips to 1.3427.

USD/JPY has been the story of the past month but it took a break today. It rose to 148.50 early in New York trade but sagged back to unchanged at 148.11 on the day.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Highlights improving consumer sentiment data (likely today’s UMich report)
• I’ve heard cautious optimism on economy
• I see inflation coming down
• Policy is in a good place
• We’re in a great place with policy and the economy and we can start to be more patient to see what we need to do next
• We don’t want to solve the inflation problem by taking people’s jobs away
• We don’t want to loosen policy too soon
• The job this year is about calibration
• Goods prices inflation is coming down and services prices are coming down
• There is a purposeful march towards normalization
• Cyclically we’re getting to a better place

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.