The stock indices close week. For the day, the Dow and Russell 2000 rose solidly, the S&P and the Nasdaq less so.

• Dow industrial average rose 426 points or 0.97% at 44296
• S&P index rose 20.63 points or 0.35% it 5969.34
• NASDAQ index rose 31.23 points or 0.16% at 19003.65
• Russell 2000 rose 42.65 points or 1.80% at 2406.67

For the trading week:

• Dow Industrial average rose 2.0%
• S&P index rose 1.7%
• NASDAQ index rose 1.74%
• Russell 2000 surged by 4.52%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend.

Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 0.87989, and the 200 day MA at 0.88298. The price reached a target area near 0.8914 to 0.8923 and backed off into the close last Friday.

Early this week, the pair moved lower initially, breaking below the 200-day moving average at 0.88298 and reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the April high at 0.87989, near the natural support at 0.8800. At this level, sellers turned into buyers, driving a reversal higher.

The price rebounded above the 200-day moving average midweek, retested it on Wednesday, and subsequently built momentum to the upside once again. This upward move, supported by broader dollar strength and weaker European currencies, pushed the pair above the 61.8% retracement of the April high at 0.8899 and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923, which now serves as immediate support zones. Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook, with further upside likely into the new trading week. The next major target lies around the psychological 0.9000 level.

Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.8900, along with the lower bound of the swing area at 0.8880, a move back toward the 200-day moving average at 0.88208 becomes a possibility. For now, the pair’s direction hinges on whether it can hold above these key support levels or retrace toward lower technical targets.

——————————————–

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair transitioned from a consolidation phase to a trending phase, breaking through key levels in a step-by-step manner.

Key Levels:

• Support: 0.8900, 0.8880 (lower bound of swing area)

• Resistance: 0.9000 (psychological level)

• Lower support at the 200-day Moving Average: 0.88208 and 50% retracement at 0.87989 (all it 0.8800)

Trading Strategy:

• Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook.

• Break below 0.8900 and 0.8880 could lead to a move toward the 200-day moving average.

• Next major target above 0.8900 is above and below 0.9000 level.

Current Situation:

The pair has built momentum to the upside, pushing above the 61.8% retracement of the April high and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923. The direction now hinges on whether it can hold above key support levels.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker rig count for the current week:

• Oil rigs, up 1 to 479
• Natural gas rigs down -2 to 99
• Total rigs for the week down 1 to 583

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Novak had graduated from being Russia’s energy minister to deputy prime minister but he is still very much involved with OPEC+ matters. In the meeting today, he basically just reaffirmed the partnership between Russia and OPEC. Adding that:

„Russia will continue to be a key player in the oil market, maintaining its status as a reliable supplier. The OPEC+ member countries are in constant contact, monitor the market situation and are ready to flexibly and promptly respond to any changes in market conditions. The current mechanism for implementing the OPEC+ Agreement is the most effective tool for maximizing the efficiency of oil production and state revenues.“

OPEC is also out with a statement saying that the meeting highlights „the important partnership between the Russian Federation and OPEC at all levels“. It looks like this pact will continue for a while more.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Overall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by
the end of 2025.

This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone
PMIs as the flows in the pair spilled over to other markets.

On the EUR side, the
probabilities for a 50 bps cut in December rose to 63% from 26% before the PMIs.
By the end of 2025, the market sees a total of 142 bps of easing.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD broke through the key support zone around the 1.05 handle yesterday and
extended the drop into the 1.0335 level this morning on weak Eurozone PMIs.

From a risk management
perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous
support
now turned resistance. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price rising back above the 1.05 handle to invalidate the bearish setup and
position for a rally into the major trendline.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have another downward trendline now defining the current bearish
momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the sellers will likely lean on it to
position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break
higher to pile in for a rally into the major trendline.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.06 handle. This is where
the sellers keep on stepping in to target the break below the 1.05 handle. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need the price to break higher to start
targeting new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

Overall, we’ve seen a
rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing
remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025 for the Fed.

This morning, we saw some
strong bids in the greenback due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as the flows there spilled
over to other markets.

On the CHF side, nothing
has changed as the market continues to price a 72% chance of a 25 bps cut in
December and a total of 70 bps of easing by the end of 2025.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF spiked back to the recent high around the 0.8915 level following
the weak Eurozone PMIs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will
have a better risk to reward setup around the major upward trendline to position for a rally into the 0.9050
level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
below the trendline to start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the upward spike this morning into the recent highs. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high
to position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 0.9050 level next.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum into the high. If we were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely
lean on it to position for a break above the recent highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Equities have now taken a turn lower on the session with European indices seeing red for the most part now. The DAX is now down 0.5% and CAC 40 down 0.8% after the more positive start to the day here. Meanwhile, US futures have also dipped lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.4% on the day.

Besides the softer PMI data from the euro area and UK, there’s not much else to drive the latest changes in equities. And even with traders now saying that the ECB might very well have to move quicker in December, it’s not providing much comfort for European stocks.

The drop lower isn’t just limited to tech shares as well. Dow futures are also now down by 0.3% on the day.

And the more cautious developments here are just adding to the case for EUR/CHF to potentially break to fresh record lows, with the pair already down 0.4% to 0.9250 currently. The low right after the PMI data earlier was 0.9203

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The missile was reportedly fired from Astrakhan and targeted critical infrastructure in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The city was also hit by other strikes involving several cruise missiles and a medium range ballistic missile.

Going back to the ICBM, it would be the first that such a long range weapon has been used in the conflict between the two countries. So far, Moscow has just said that they have „nothing to say on this topic“.

The ongoing tensions here have added something extra to the flows in markets this week. There were some safety bids earlier in the week but if anything else, it is at least propping up oil prices again. WTI crude is seen up 2% today to touch $70 again.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a less
dovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged at
three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This is generally a signal
that the market is fine with the current pricing, and we would need stronger
reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some general
US Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the GBP side, this week
we got the UK CPI report with the data coming in higher than
expected. This saw the market strengthening the chances of no change at the
December BoE meeting but overall the pricing remained unchanged around 67 bps
of easing by the end of 2025.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD continues to consolidate near the major upward trendline. This is where the buyers are
stepping in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the pair looks to be bottoming out here and we might see a pullback
into the major downward trendline. The buyers will want to see the price
breaking above the 1.27 handle to gain more conviction, while the sellers will
likely lean on that level to target the break below the upward trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price action has been mostly rangebound since last Thursday as
that’s when the bullish momentum in the US Dollar stalled. There’s not much we
can add here as the buyers will look for a break above the 1.27 handle, while
the sellers will target a break below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the UK and the US PMIs.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.