Another week, another failure for oil to close above $80 0 (0)

The oil market isn’t quite sure what it wants to do. This week, OPEC extended its production cut, the Saudis raised prices and US inventories tightened. But that wasn’t enough to get oil through $80 as it tried on Monday, Wednesday and today. Despite touching above $80 on a couple days, it failed to close above and never even matched last week’s intraday high of $80.85.

That’s not a great sign for crude, though the seasonals are still positive for March and April so there’s room for optimism. It pulled back to $77.84 today after failing at $79.99 so there are clearly technical players involved. We will see if signals from the physical market next week can re-assert themselves. Otherwise, a fall below $77.50 could be trouble.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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GBPUSD: A review of the key technical levels for GBPUSD heading into the new trading week 0 (0)

As the Friday trading day winds down, what are the key technical levels in play for the GBPUSD heading into the new trading week.

In the video above, I outline what to watch for technically in the trading week starting March 11.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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The countdown continues ahead of the US jobs report 0 (0)

The Japanese yen has been the big mover in European trading, as USD/JPY briefly dipped below 147.00 amid more hawkish BOJ murmurs during the session. Outside of that, the market moves so far today have been relatively contained for the most part.

The dollar remains vulnerable, down against the likes of the pound and aussie. But the euro is the laggard as ECB policymakers are out in droves to possibly put an April rate cut back on the table. I’m still skeptical but well, the commentary has been surprising to say the least. Then, we have gold sitting higher again and flirting with the $2,170 level on the day.

In other markets, equities are fairly tentative while Treasury yields are sitting slightly lower on the day. 10-year yields are down another 2 bps to 4.071% and that is keeping the dollar fairly subdued in the bigger picture for now.

It’s all about US jobs report coming up next to set the tone as we look to wrap things up this week. As mentioned earlier:

This looks to be a market that is wanting a release that will validate the moves this week i.e. softer dollar, stronger risk trades. That means it is going to take quite some convincing to turn sentiment around as we look towards the weekend. And barring any material change to the Fed outlook on the hawkish side, I reckon the play will be to fade any opposite reaction to the flows we have seen in the last few days. But we’ll see.

Here are a couple of previews ahead of the main event:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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AUDUSD Technical Analysis 0 (0)

USD

AUD

  • The
    RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
    maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
  • The
    recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
    the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
  • The
    latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
    margin.
  • The
    wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
    growth in Australia remains strong.
  • The
    latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling
    back into contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
  • The
    market expects the first rate cut in August.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD eventually
bounced around the key 0.65 support zone and
extended the rally into the swing high at 0.6623. A successful break above this
level should open the door for a rally into the 0.69 resistance next. We can
also notice that the price is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance
from the blue 8 moving average. In such
instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some
consolidation before the next move.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that in case we get
a pullback, the buyers will have the first support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
Fibonacci level to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the pair now trading inside a rising
channel with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. A break to
the downside should trigger a selloff into the Fibonacci level with the sellers
piling in with more conviction.

Upcoming Events

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Eurozone Q4 final GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q second estimate 0 (0)

  • GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% y/y second estimate

This just confirms zero growth in the euro area in the last quarter, after having marginally contracted in Q3 2023. It was a very poor year to say the least for the Eurozone but at least a technical recession is avoided, by the thinnest of margins.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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IC Markets Now Live on TradingView 0 (0)

IC Markets, a global leader in online trading and investing, has
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Beyond aligning with the mutual view of industry innovation, The
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collaboration underscores the desire to
provide a powerful trading experience.

TradingView is the go-to for traders to stay ahead of the market, with
400+ built-in indicators and strategies and another 100+ smart drawing tools.
By seamlessly incorporating IC Markets into TradingView’s comprehensive chart
library, traders now have access to a diverse range of market insights and
analytical tools at their fingertips.

This development aligns with IC Markets’ ongoing focus on enhancing the
customer experience, most recently reflected in its impressive 4.8-star rating
on Trustpilot from over 30,000 reviews.

IC Markets has quickly garnered positive feedback from clients,
achieving an impressive #2 broker ranking on TradingView within just the first
month. The broker has earned a stellar 4.7-star rating, a testament to its
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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Japanese yen extends run higher as hawkish BOJ murmurs continue to grow 0 (0)

It looks like we’ve broken through the first key technical hurdle for USD/JPY on the way down, as sellers are firmly pushing price below the 100-day moving average (red line) of 147.70 today. The hawkish murmurs surrounding the BOJ continue to grow, as it seems like policymakers are teeing up a move in two weeks‘ time.

The spring wage negotiations is the key factor in play at the moment and we are likely to see some news on that on 13 March next week. That will come before the BOJ meeting on 19 March, leaving some room for policymakers to deliberate ending negative rates as early as this month.

And so, the yen is continuing to run higher as such after the BOJ got the ball rolling earlier this week.

USD/JPY is now down to 147.10 and may look to dip much further from here. The 38.2 Fib retracement level offers some minor support at 146.82 next. But I’m watching the 1 February low near 146.00 and the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 146.15 as the next big support region for the pair.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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EURUSD Technical Analysis 0 (0)

USD

EUR

  • The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
    expected at the last meeting maintaining the usual data dependent language.
  • The Eurozone CPI beat
    expectations.
  • The labour market remains historically
    tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
  • The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
    expectations on the Services side with the measure jumping back into expansion
    while the Manufacturing one missed dragged lower by Germany’s performance.
  • The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD probed
above the 1.09 handle yesterday but failed to sustain the breakout as the
sellers stepped in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the
1.0723 support. The
trend for now remains bullish as the price continues to make higher highs and
higher lows with the moving averages being
crossed to the upside. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to
invalidate the bearish setup and start targeting the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the trendline where
they will also find the confluence of the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
and the daily 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and
increase the bearish bets into the 1.0723 support.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
buyers have another strong support zone around the 1.0870 where we can find the
confluence of the previous resistance turned
support
, the minor trendline, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level and the 4-hour 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a break
above the 1.09 level and target the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate this bullish
setup and position for a drop into the major trendline.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the ECB rate decision and the US
Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

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All eyes are on Lagarde’s press conference when it comes to the ECB today 0 (0)

The ECB policy meeting decision later is going to be a dud. There’s almost no doubts about that really. The central bank is not in a position to cut rates just yet and so, they can’t really force such a communication in their policy statement in case inflation developments don’t go according to plan in the months ahead. The key rhetoric now is better be safe than sorry.

And that is precisely what we should see in the monetary policy statement later in the day. The ECB should adhere to the following passage:

„Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates are at levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to this goal. The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that its policy rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary.“

Adding to that, the statement should reaffirm a more „data-dependent approach“ as they continue to take stock of economic data over the next few months.

I mean, the ECB has made that quite clear since the start of the year. They have guided markets into pricing out rate cuts in March and April. And they have communicated that they are quite comfortable with traders pricing in the first rate cut for June at the moment.

That of course might change if we do get some surprises in the next two months. But as of today, they are happy with how things have panned out for the time being.

So, what is there to really talk about today?

I think that is exactly the point. The statement should offer nothing for markets to scrutinise. So, all the focus and attention will turn towards Lagarde’s press conference instead.

The main thing that she wants and needs to achieve is to maintain the status quo.

As traders are looking to June for the first rate cut, that is where the ECB is also comfortable with considering recent economic developments. As such, there is no need to deviate from that.

That should make Lagarde’s job relatively simple, no? Well, yes and no.

On the one hand, all she has to do is rehash everything that they have been saying over the last two months. However, if she accidentally let slip any commentary about earlier rate cuts, that will change the whole picture.

The latter might happen as she might feel the need to be more explicit about the ECB’s motives in the months ahead. They have made clear that the next step is likely a rate cut. So, the onus is on Lagarde to build upon that but not too much.

If she does her job well, the events today should be a non-event for the euro and the rates market. And if we do get some outsized reaction otherwise, it would be clear that she definitely bottled the moment.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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US futures pare early losses in European morning trade 0 (0)

It is still early in the day with the ECB and US weekly jobless claims coming up. Those events are not likely to offer much but US futures are already showing slight optimism by brushing aside the losses earlier in the session. S&P 500 futures were down as much as 0.4% but are flat on the day currently.

It reaffirms that dip buyers are still seen in the market following the drop on Tuesday this week. Nvidia is continuing to play a big part in that with price closing in on $900 in pre-market. The parabolic run higher in the stock continues to buoy overall sentiment it would seem.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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