Yesterday, the Fed kept interest rates
unchanged as expected but that’s not what the market was looking for going into
the event. The market was focused solely on the Dot Plot and the Fed decided to
validate the market’s dovish pricing projecting a 2024 year-end peak rate at
4.6%. The expectations were for the Fed to keep two rate cuts for 2024, but the
Fed decided to increase that to three, basically agreeing with the market that
rate cuts are coming.

Moreover, Fed Chair Powell didn’t
push back against the strong dovish pricing and even said that they are focused
on not making the mistake of holding rates high for too long, which suggests
that a rate cut could come pretty soon. This gave a strong boost to the Dow
Jones leading to new highs with the sentiment turning heavily bullish.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones made
a new all-time high yesterday following the Fed’s pivot. This rally incredible
rally has been a straight line since the end of October with almost no
opportunities to catch a decent pullback. Chasing the price now doesn’t look
like a good idea from a risk management perspective, although the FOMO can be
really strong now.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we
have a trendline now
connecting the most recent swing lows. If we get a pullback from the all-time
high, the buyers are likely to lean on the trendline where they will also find
the red 21 moving average for confluence.
Moreover, we can see that the latest leg higher is diverging with
the MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price recently broke out of the consolidation marked by the blue box and
extended the rally to new highs. We can also notice that on this timeframe, the
buyers will find the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level around the trendline and the moving
average for extra confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking below the trendline to position for a drop into the 35683 support.

Upcoming Events

Today we will see the latest US Retail Sales and
Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Since the retreat from 1.1000 at the end of last month, the pair was caught in and around the 100-day (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages. But after the dollar slumped following the FOMC meeting yesterday, buyers took the call to action to break above the latter and that is seeing the bias in the pair shift to being more bullish.

The dollar softness today is extending, with the pair trading up 0.3% to 1.0910 currently. However, the euro side of the equation will also come into play later on with the ECB coming up next.

As things stand, traders are pricing in a whopping 154 bps worth of rate cuts by the ECB for next year. The odds of a March rate cut have moved up to ~77% with nearly 50 bps priced in already for April. In other words, the Fed’s dovishness has set up more expectations of a quicker move by other major central banks going into next year.

That being said, it is important to remember that not every economy is the same. The so-called disinflation process seems to be farther along in the US than the Eurozone, especially when you consider the most recent PMI data takeaways here.

However, there is also the narrative that the euro area economy is slowing down much faster than the US. And so, if the ECB wants to, they can opt to spin the rhetoric accordingly and focus on that to tee up rate cuts following the timeline priced in by markets at the moment.

EUR/USD may be primed for a retest of the 1.1000 mark based on the technicals. But the euro side of the equation could offset the dollar weakness that we are seeing at the moment, keeping the balance of flows more balanced towards the end of the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.8%
• Market index 194.5 vs 181.1 prior
• Purchase index 149.6 vs 144.5 prior
• Refinance index 445.8 vs 373.3 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.07% vs 7.17% prior

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As a reminder, the debt brake serves to cap spending by the government and limits the country’s structural budget deficit. Scholz says that should the Ukraine conflict become worse, the government will have to respond by looking to declare an emergency exception for the budget – which will see the debt brake suspended as it has been since the Covid pandemic.

Scholz notes that the government will be saving €17 billion in its core budget and will also cut spending from its climate and transformation fund. For some context, Scholz was actually supporting the idea for another suspension of the debt brake whereas finance minister Lindner was against it. And that resulted in intense discussions and debate over the matter in recent weeks.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

GBP

• The BoE kept interest rates
  unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The central bank is leaning towards
  keeping interest rates high for longer, although it keeps a door open for
  further tightening if inflationary pressures were to be more persistent.
• The BoE members continue to repeat
  that they will keep rates high for long enough to get inflation back to target.
• The latest employment report missed
  forecasts with wage growth coming in much lower than expected and job losses in
  November.
• The recent UK CPI missed
  expectations across the board, which was a welcome development for the BoE.
• The UK PMIs beat expectations on
  both the Manufacturing and Services measures, with the Services sector crawling
  back in expansion.
• The latest UK Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin as consumer spending remains
  weak.
• The market expects the BoE to start
  cutting rates in Q2 2024

JPY

• The BoJ kept its monetary policy basically
  unchanged at the last meeting but formally widened the YCC to 1% on the 10-year
  JGBs stating that it will be a reference cap.
• Governor Ueda repeated once again
  that they won’t hesitate to take easing measures if needed and that they are
  not foreseeing sustainable price increases.
• The latest Japanese CPIshowed that inflation pressures are easing although
  they remain well above the BoJ’s 2% target.
• The latest Unemployment Rate
  remained unchanged near cycle lows.
• The Japanese Manufacturing PMI fell
  further into contraction, but the Services PMI ticked higher remaining in
  expansion.
• The latest Japanese wage data beat
  expectations and as a reminder the BoJ is focusing on wage growth to decide
  whether to tweak its monetary policy.
• The BoJ Governor Ueda last week
  delivered some interesting comments where it looked like the central bank was
  indeed considering rate hikes in 2024.
• The market expects the BoJ to hike
  rates in Q2 2024.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY tumbled for
hundreds of pips after breaking below the key support at the trendline and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level. This huge move was an overreaction to BoJ’s
Governor Ueda comments where he hinted to rate hikes coming in 2024. The price
then pulled back from overstretched levels into the blue 8 moving average where
we got a rejection. The next target for the sellers should be the 176.32 level.

GBPJPY
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
keeps on getting rejected from the trendline as the sellers continue to step in
with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. The buyers
will need the price to break above the trendline to start targeting new higher
highs.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price might now consolidate between the trendline and the recent low at 182.30.
The playbook should be straightforward:

• A breakout to the upside should see the buyers
  piling in for a rally into the previous support now turned resistance around
  the 185.00 handle.
• A breakout to the downside should lead to more
  bearish bets and the sellers targeting new lows with the 176.32 level as the
  first target.

Upcoming Events

Today, we have the US PPI
data followed by the FOMC rate decision where the Fed is expected to keep
interest rates unchanged. Tomorrow, we have the BoE rate decision where the
central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged and later in the day, we will
see the latest US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we
conclude the week with the Japanese, UK and the US PMIs.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The SNB will also be part of the mix and while not many are talking about the Swiss central bank, they are one of the few ones to have really surprised markets over the last two years. The latest one was to hold its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in September here. So, are they now expected to be on pause mode for an extended period?

Let’s take a look at some analyst expectations going into tomorrow’s decision.

BofA

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB is likely on a longer pause than the ECB now
• No change in language surrounding the Swiss franc for the time being
• First rate cut only expected in Q3 2024

Goldman Sachs

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB to lower inflation forecasts, while acknowledging lower inflation in the Eurozone and US too
• No pressure for the SNB to cut as quickly as other central banks given „relatively low rate peak“
• First rate cut only expected in September 2024

UBS

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• Inflation forecast to be revised lower
• SNB likely not decided on any FX intervention yet moving forward
• No changes expected to tiering framework
• First rate cut projected for June 2024, with policy rate seen at 1% in December 2024

Nomura

• Rates on hold at 1.75%
• SNB to communicate „weaker verbal commitment to FX sales“
• Swiss economy has a deflation problem rather than an inflation problem
• In that lieu, inflation likely to approach 0% again by the end of 2024
• SNB to revise lower its inflation forecasts
• First rate cut expected in June 2024

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.1%; revised to -1.0%

Euro area industrial output slumps by more than expected to start Q4, reaffirming the ongoing recession in the manufacturing sector. Here’s the breakdown:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Blockchain technology has gained significant attention in recent years
due to its potential in revolutionizing various industries. One particular area
where blockchain technology has shown promise is in tracking funds and
resources. In this article, we will explore how blockchain can be utilized to enhance transparency, security, and
efficiency in the tracking of funds and resources.

Transparency

One of the key advantages of blockchain technology is its
ability to provide a transparent and immutable record of transactions. When
applied to tracking funds and resources, blockchain can ensure that every
transaction is recorded and easily auditable.

This transparency can help prevent fraud, corruption, and
mismanagement of funds and resources. By having a decentralized and distributed
ledger, multiple parties can have access to the same information, fostering
trust and accountability among stakeholders.

Security

Blockchain technology relies on cryptographic algorithms to
secure transactions and data. This makes it highly resistant to tampering and
unauthorized access. When tracking funds and resources, security is of utmost
importance to prevent any malicious activities or fraudulent behavior.

By utilizing blockchain, organizations can ensure that
transactions are securely recorded and cannot be altered without consensus from
the network participants. Additionally, smart contracts can be implemented to
automate and enforce predefined rules and conditions, reducing the risk of
human error or manipulation.

Efficiency

Traditionally, tracking funds and resources involves a
complex web of intermediaries, paperwork, and manual processes. This can be
time-consuming, prone to errors, and often lacks real-time visibility.
Blockchain technology offers a more efficient solution by streamlining these
processes.

By using a decentralized ledger, all relevant parties can
have immediate access to accurate and up-to-date information, eliminating the
need for intermediaries and reducing processing time. Smart contracts can also
automate repetitive tasks, ensuring faster and more reliable transaction
settlements.

Use Cases

Several sectors can benefit from the use of blockchain
technology in tracking funds and resources. In the financial industry,
blockchain can enable faster and more transparent cross-border transactions,
reducing costs and increasing efficiency.

Governments can leverage blockchain to track public funds
and prevent corruption by providing a transparent and auditable record. Supply
chain management is another area where blockchain can enhance tracking
capabilities, ensuring the provenance and authenticity of goods.

Challenges and Considerations

While blockchain technology holds great potential, its
widespread adoption in tracking funds and resources faces several challenges.
Firstly, scalability remains an issue as blockchain networks require
significant computing power to process and validate transactions.
Interoperability between different blockchain platforms also needs to be
addressed to ensure seamless information exchange. Additionally, privacy
concerns arise when dealing with sensitive financial data or personal
information, necessitating proper safeguards and regulations.

In conclusion, blockchain technology offers numerous
advantages in tracking funds and resources. Its transparency, security, and
efficiency make it an ideal solution for industries that require accurate and
tamper-proof records. However, overcoming scalability, interoperability, and
privacy challenges will be crucial for the widespread adoption of blockchain in
this context. With further research, development, and collaboration, blockchain
has the potential to revolutionize the way we track and manage funds and
resources.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• To keep liquidity reasonably ample
• Proactive fiscal policy will be enhanced with improving efficiency
• Will make efforts in expanding domestic demand, spur consumption with potential
• Will promote steady decline in cost of social financing, enhance consistency of macro policy orientation
• To strengthen supervision of implementation of policies
• Necessary to accurately grasp policy orientation of next year’s economic work

It’s the usual commentary from Chinese authorities, in reassuring the public that they will do what is necessary to bolster the economy and keep the recovery on track.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Mobile banking has grown rapidly in recent years,
revolutionizing the way people interact with their finances. With the
increasing penetration of smartphones and the internet, mobile banking has
become a convenient and accessible method for individuals to manage their
accounts, make transactions, and access financial services. This article explores the rise and implications of mobile
banking, highlighting its benefits, challenges, and the potential impact it has
on various stakeholders.

The Rise of Mobile Banking

The widespread adoption of smartphones has played a crucial
role in the rise of mobile banking. With smartphones becoming an integral part
of our lives, financial institutions recognized the opportunity to provide banking services
through this ubiquitous device. As a result, they developed user-friendly
mobile applications that allow customers to perform a wide range of banking
activities anytime and anywhere.

To cater to the growing demand for mobile banking, banks
have invested significantly in technological advancements and security
measures. They have implemented state-of-the-art encryption protocols and
two-factor authentication methods to ensure the integrity of customer data and
protect against fraud. These initiatives have instilled trust and confidence in
users, driving the exponential growth of mobile banking applications.

Implications for Individuals

Mobile banking has empowered individuals to take control of
their finances conveniently. It eliminates the need to physically visit a bank
branch or use traditional online banking platforms. Now, users can seamlessly
access their account details, check balances, transfer funds, pay bills, and
even apply for loans using their smartphones. Such convenience saves time and
provides a hassle-free banking experience.

Furthermore, mobile banking apps offer real-time
notifications, enabling users to stay updated about their account activities
promptly. This enhances financial literacy and helps individuals make informed
decisions about their money management. Additionally, mobile banking increases
financial inclusion, allowing unbanked individuals to access basic financial
services, consequently promoting economic development and reducing poverty.

Implications for Banks

For banks, mobile banking presents both opportunities and
challenges. On one hand, it offers cost savings by reducing the need for
physical infrastructure and manual processes. Banks can streamline their
operations, as customers perform routine transactions through the mobile app,
freeing up staff to focus on more complex tasks. Moreover, mobile banking
allows banks to reach a wider customer base, particularly tech-savvy
individuals who prefer digital interactions over traditional methods.

On the other hand, increased reliance on mobile banking
presents security risks. As cyber threats continue to evolve, financial
institutions must invest heavily in robust security measures to protect
customer data. Any breaches or fraudulent activities can severely damage a
bank’s reputation, resulting in significant financial losses and loss of
customer trust. Therefore, banks constantly need to stay ahead of emerging
security threats and ensure the highest level of protection for their users.

Implications for Society

Mobile banking has far-reaching implications for society as
a whole. It contributes to the digitization of various sectors and accelerates
the transition towards a cashless economy. By enabling quick and seamless
transactions, mobile banking facilitates economic growth, reduces transaction
costs, and promotes financial stability. Society benefits from reduced
paperwork, increased transparency, and improved efficiency in financial
transactions.

However, the digital divide remains a challenge. Not
everyone has access to smartphones or reliable internet connections, which
limits their participation in mobile banking. Bridging this divide requires
collaborative efforts between governments, financial institutions, and
technology companies to provide affordable devices and internet connectivity to
underserved populations.

Conclusion

The rise of mobile banking has transformed the way
individuals manage their finances and interact with financial institutions. It
offers unprecedented convenience, accessibility, and empowerment to users.
However, banks need to continuously address security concerns, and societies
must strive towards bridging the digital divide to ensure that everyone can
benefit from the advantages of mobile banking. As technology continues to
advance, the implications of mobile banking will likely expand, shaping the future
of the financial industry and our everyday lives.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.