This is the 23rd straight month that the index is below its 50-year average of 98. It reinforces the notion that small business sentiment is still rather languishing but not really pointing to any major recession-like signals at least. One thing to note is that NFIB says the net percentage of firms increasing employment has
been negative since March, with more firms decreasing jobs than
adding them.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
One of the key areas where cryptocurrency has had an impact
on traditional banking is remittances. Sending money across borders has
traditionally been a costly and time-consuming process, with intermediaries
taking a cut of the transaction. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, offer a
decentralized and efficient method for transferring funds internationally. By
eliminating the need for intermediaries, cryptocurrencies can significantly
reduce the cost and time required for remittances, making it more accessible
and affordable for individuals.
Another notable impact of cryptocurrency on traditional
banking is the concept of decentralization. Unlike traditional banks, where
control and authority lie with centralized institutions, cryptocurrencies are
built on blockchain technology, which allows for peer-to-peer transactions
without the need for intermediaries. This decentralization removes the reliance
on centralized authorities, making transactions more secure and transparent.
Moreover, the use of blockchain technology enables immutable records of
transactions, reducing the risk of fraud or manipulation.
Furthermore, cryptocurrencies have also opened up avenues
for financial inclusion for the unbanked population. According to the World
Bank, around 1.7 billion adults remain unbanked globally, lacking access to
basic financial services. Cryptocurrencies can provide an alternative means of
storing and transferring value for these individuals, bypassing the need for a
traditional bank account. With just a smartphone and an internet connection,
anyone can participate in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, empowering individuals
who were previously excluded from the formal banking sector.
In addition to transforming individual financial
transactions, cryptocurrencies have also impacted the concept of fundraising.
Traditional banks have long been the primary source of funding for startups and
businesses. However, with the rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), companies
can now raise capital by issuing tokens or digital assets. This alternative
source of funding has democratized the investment landscape, allowing
individuals from around the world to participate in early-stage investments and
support innovative projects. While this method has its risks and regulatory
challenges, it demonstrates how cryptocurrencies are reshaping the traditional
banking model.
Despite these transformative aspects, it is important to
note that cryptocurrencies also pose challenges and risks for traditional
banks. The volatility of cryptocurrency markets and concerns over security and
regulation have made many banks cautious about involvement in the crypto space.
Some banks have even banned the use of credit cards for purchasing
cryptocurrencies, reflecting their hesitancy to embrace this emerging
technology fully. However, as governments and regulators develop frameworks to
address these concerns, traditional banks may consider adopting certain aspects
of cryptocurrencies to enhance their services and remain competitive.
In conclusion, cryptocurrencies have had a profound impact
on traditional banking systems, disrupting established norms and
revolutionizing the way people transact and store value. From remittances to
decentralization, financial inclusion to fundraising, cryptocurrencies have
brought about significant changes in the financial industry. As the adoption
and acceptance of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, it remains to be seen how
traditional banks will adapt and incorporate these innovative technologies into
their existing models.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
Gold Futures Technical Analysis: Bears Seize Gold as Price Headed to 1978
In this video technical analysis of gold futures, we delve into the key levels that could significantly impact the price of gold, examining recent price fluctuations and forecasting future market trends.
Key Levels to Watch for gold futures
1978 Support Level: A crucial support level that has repeatedly tested its strength in the past. A breakdown below this level could signal a prolonged bearish trend.
20 EMA: A moving average commonly utilized as a support and resistance indicator. A significant dip below the 20 EMA could strengthen bear dominance.
2035 Resistance Level: Another key resistance level that has proven its resilience in previous price movements. A breakout above this level could spark a renewed bullish momentum.
Recent Price Action: Bears Assert Dominance
Gold’s price has exhibited a bearish trajectory in recent weeks, evident in the sharp decline from the recent high of $2159.2 to $1978. This trend suggests that bears have gained the upper hand in the market.
Gold Futures Price Predictions: Bears Pressuring Towards 1978
Based on our technical analysis and market insights, we anticipate that gold’s price is likely to continue its downward trajectory in the near future. We expect the price to test the 1978 support level and potentially break below it. Such a breakdown could pave the way for a further decline towards $1800 or even lower.
Conclusion: Bears Grip Tightly, 1978 in Sight
With bears firmly in control of the gold market, we believe that the price is likely to consolidate its bearish tendencies in the near term. We anticipate the price to test the 1978 support level and potentially breach it. Should this occur, a further decline towards $1800 or even lower could materialize.
Further Insights and Resources
For additional perspectives on gold futures, we recommend the following resources:
ForexLive:https://www.forexlive.com: A comprehensive resource for forex and commodities market news and analysis.
Kitco:https://www.kitco.com: A leading provider of gold, silver, and other precious metals market news, commentary, and pricing.
GoldPrice.org:https://www.goldprice.org: A reputable platform for gold price data, charts, and analysis.
Risk Disclaimer: Trading gold futures is a speculative endeavor with inherent risks. Please exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
Emotions: The Enemy of Successful Traders
Emotions can often cloud a trader’s judgment and lead to
poor decision-making. Fear, greed, and impatience are some of the common
emotions that can derail a trader’s success. Controlling these emotions is
essential to achieve consistent profitability in forex trading.
Understanding Fear and Greed
Fear and greed are often considered two sides of the same
coin in the trading world. Fear can make traders hesitant, causing them to miss
out on potential profitable opportunities. On the other hand, greed can push
traders to take excessive risks, resulting in significant losses. It is
important to strike a balance between these emotions to avoid making impulsive
decisions.
Patience: The Virtue of Successful Traders
Forex trading requires patience. Waiting for the right
opportunity to enter or exit a trade is crucial for success. Impatient traders
tend to jump into trades without proper analysis, increasing the chances of
losses. Developing patience is essential to avoid falling into this trap.
Dealing with Losses
Losses are an inevitable part of forex trading. Even the
most successful traders face losing trades. It is important to accept losses as
part of the process and not let them affect your confidence. Learning from
losses and adjusting trading strategies accordingly is the key to long-term
success.
Building Discipline and Consistency
Discipline and consistency are fundamental to successful
forex trading psychology. Following a well-defined trading plan and sticking to
it, regardless of emotions, is crucial. Deviating from the plan due to fear or
greed can lead to poor decision-making and ultimately, losses.
Developing a Positive Mindset
Having a positive mindset is crucial for success in forex
trading. A negative mindset can cloud judgment and lead to self-doubt.
Believing in one’s abilities and having confidence in the trading strategies is
essential for overcoming challenges and achieving consistent profitability.
The Importance of Self-Reflection
Self-reflection is an integral part of improving forex
trading psychology. Regularly analyzing past trades, identifying mistakes, and
working on personal growth are essential steps towards becoming a better
trader. It allows traders to learn from their experiences and continuously
improve their skills.
Seeking Support and Education
Forex trading can be a solitary activity, but seeking
support and education is vital for maintaining a healthy mindset. Joining
trading communities, attending seminars or webinars, and seeking guidance from
experienced traders can provide valuable insights and help traders overcome
psychological obstacles.
In conclusion, forex trading psychology plays a significant
role in a trader’s success. Managing emotions, developing patience, building
discipline, maintaining a positive mindset, and seeking continual improvement
through self-reflection and education are key elements to thrive in the forex
market. By mastering the psychological aspects of trading, traders can enhance
their overall performance and achieve long-term profitability.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
The first ECB rate cut is baked in for April currently but market participants are not seeing the SNB move as quickly as their usual counterpart. The latest Reuters poll on economists is only showing the Swiss central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged until at least September next year.
That comes despite Swiss inflation looking in much better shape than the Eurozone at the moment, as seen here.
Of note, the poll shows that 21 of 31 economists (nearly 70%) expect the SNB to keep rates unchanged until Q3 2024 with only 13 of 29 economists polled predicting that the first rate cut will only come in December next year.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
1. Decreased Real Returns
One of the primary ripple effects of inflation on investment
portfolios is the decreased real returns. Inflation erodes the value of money,
leading to a decrease in purchasing power. For example, if an investment earns
a nominal return of 5% per year but the inflation rate is 3%, the real return
would only be 2%. This implies that the investor’s actual purchasing power has
increased by just 2%.
2. Impact on Fixed-Income Investments
Inflation also affects fixed-income
investments such as bonds
and Treasury bills. These investments provide a fixed interest rate, which
means that as inflation rises, the real return on these investments decreases.
Investors holding fixed-income investments may find it challenging to maintain
their standard of living as the purchasing power of their interest income
declines.
3. Volatility in Equity Markets
Inflation can lead to increased volatility in equity
markets. Uncertainty regarding future inflation levels can create market
fluctuations and affect stock prices. Companies may face higher costs for raw
materials, wages, and other inputs, which can reduce profitability. As a
result, investors may experience greater market volatility, making it crucial
to diversify their portfolios and mitigate potential risks.
4. Impact on Real Assets
Real assets such as real estate, commodities, and
infrastructure can be directly affected by inflation. During times of high
inflation, the value of real assets tends to rise. Real estate prices may
increase, and commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products often see
price spikes. Investors who hold real assets within their portfolios may
benefit from these price increases, as they can provide a hedge against
inflation.
5. High-Interest Debt
Inflation affects borrowers and lenders differently.
Borrowers benefit from inflation as the value of their debts decreases over
time. For example, if a borrower has a fixed-rate mortgage, the real burden of
repaying the loan decreases as inflation rises. Conversely, lenders may suffer
as the purchasing power of the interest income earned from loans decreases.
Investors holding high-interest debt securities may witness a decline in the
real value of their investments.
Conclusion
Inflation can have far-reaching consequences on investment
portfolios. It reduces real returns, impacts fixed-income investments, creates
volatility in equity markets, influences the value of real assets, and affects
the dynamics of high-interest debt. Investors must carefully consider the
effects of inflation when constructing their portfolios to mitigate risks and
maximize returns in an inflationary environment.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
The Bubble Argument
Critics argue that cryptocurrencies are nothing more than a
speculative bubble reminiscent of the dot-com era. They highlight the volatile
nature of these digital assets, with prices soaring and plummeting within short
periods. Critics also point out the absence of intrinsic value backing most
cryptocurrencies, suggesting that their worth is based solely on speculation
and hype.
Moreover, the proliferation of Initial Coin Offerings
(ICOs), where companies raise funds by issuing their own digital tokens, is seen as a symbol of the cryptocurrency bubble. Skeptics
argue that many ICOs lack a solid business model or product, relying solely on
the investor frenzy surrounding cryptocurrencies.
The New Standard Argument
On the other side, proponents assert that cryptocurrencies
represent a new standard in the financial world. They argue that these digital
assets offer several advantages over traditional fiat currencies. Firstly,
cryptocurrencies operate through decentralized blockchain technology, providing
transparency and reducing the need for intermediaries like banks. This opens up
possibilities for efficient and secure transactions across borders.
Additionally, proponents emphasize the potential for
cryptocurrencies to empower the unbanked population worldwide. With
approximately 1.7 billion adults lacking access to basic financial services,
cryptocurrencies can bridge this gap by enabling individuals to participate in
the global economy without relying on traditional banking systems.
Furthermore, advocates believe that the underlying
technology of cryptocurrencies, blockchain, has vast applications beyond
currency. Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize sectors such
as supply chain management, healthcare, and voting systems, among others. This
versatility makes cryptocurrencies more than just a speculative asset but
rather a transformative force in various industries.
A Balanced Perspective
To form a well-rounded view, it is important to consider
both arguments. While there are valid concerns about the volatility and lack of
intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies, their potential benefits cannot be
ignored. The technology behind cryptocurrencies has already demonstrated its
potential to disrupt existing industries and improve efficiency.
However, it is crucial to distinguish between legitimate
projects with solid fundamentals and those mere speculative ventures fueled by
hype. Extensive research and due diligence should guide investors in
distinguishing worthwhile investments from potential pitfalls.
In conclusion, cryptocurrencies remain a contentious topic
in today’s financial landscape. While the bubble argument raises valid
concerns, proponents firmly believe in the paradigm shift brought about by
these digital assets. As the industry matures and regulations are established,
only time will tell whether cryptocurrencies will stand as a bubble waiting to
burst or become the new standard in finance.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
Tuesday
There’s no consensus estimates for the UK
jobs data at the time of writing except for the wage growth figures where the
average earnings including bonus are seen falling to 7.7% vs. 7.9% prior while
the average earnings excluding bonus are expected to come down to 7.4% vs. 7.7%
prior. As a reminder, the last
report beat expectations across the board
with strong job gains and steady wage growth. The market is now looking for
rate cuts, so a strong release is unlikely to prompt the market to price in
rate hikes, but it could definitely make it to price out some of the rate cuts.
The US CPI Y/Y is expected to tick down to
3.1% vs. 3.2% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.0% vs. 0.0% prior. The
Core CPI Y/Y is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% vs. 4.0% prior, while the
M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. As a reminder, the last
report missed expectations across the board
and triggered some strong reactions with the US Dollar selling off and the US
Equity and Bond markets rallying. The major central banks have ended their
tightening cycles, so the markets’ reaction function has changed from “strong
data equals more rate hikes” to “strong data equals less rate cuts”.
Wednesday
The FOMC is expected to keep the FFR
steady at 5.25-5.50% with no change to their quantitative tightening (QT). The
market’s focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot
Plot. In its September
projections, the Fed expected to
deliver one last rate hike in 2023 followed by 2 rate cuts in 2024. Given the
disinflationary trend and the softening in the general economic data in the
past few months, the chances for a rate hike in December quickly dwindled with
the market now not only 100% sure that the Fed is done with the tightening
cycle but even expecting 4 rate cuts in 2024 (it was 5 rate cuts beginning as
soon as March before the NFP report).
It’s very unlikely to see the Fed
projecting as much rate cuts as the market’s currently assumes, but I feel
like the market would be more than fine if the Fed projects 3 rate cuts in 2024
as it would be a nod that they indeed see their conditions being met earlier
than expected. Things got a bit complicated with the latest
NFP report where the unemployment
rate dipped to 3.7% vs. 3.9% prior and wage growth on a monthly basis came in
on the hotter side. The CPI report on Tuesday should shed some more light
though.
Consider this: if you were the Fed, would
you have the confidence to cut rates in Q1 2024 given such volatility in the
data and the fear of making the 70s mistakes (as they keep repeating)? Probably
not. We can certainly see 125+ bps of rate cuts in 2024, but it’s likely to
be aggressive in response to a hard landing. Thus, it would always be above
the expected market rate cut for a given meeting in order to create a faster
easing in financial conditions. And this fear around the 70s and the
uncertainty around the data might lead the Fed to cut too late or too slowly,
eventually triggering a „hard-er“ landing. I feel like this
uncertainty could transpire from their projections if they keep just 2 rate
cuts on the table, or worse, revise it to just one, especially if it’s
accompanied by lower inflation expectations.
Thursday
The Australian Unemployment Rate is
expected to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior with 10K jobs added. The last
labour market report showed an increase in
employment of 55K, which was much higher than expected although the bulk of it
was part-time jobs. The market is likely to react more to weakness rather than
strength as it’s looking forward to rate cuts in 2024. The RBA will see another
jobs report before its next meeting in February 2024.
The SNB is expected to keep interest rates
steady at 1.75% vs. 1.75% prior,
probably accompanied by the usual caveat that “it cannot be ruled out that
further tightening may become necessary”. The inflation
rate in Switzerland has been
within the central bank 0-2% target for many months on both the headline and
core measures, so they should actually start to
considering rate cuts in 2024.
The BoE is expected to keep the bank rate
steady at 5.25% vs 5.25% prior,
but this time there should be a bigger consensus among the MPC for no change,
although this is likely to be shaped by the UK Labour Market report on Tuesday.
As a reminder Greene, Mann and Haskel voted for a rate hike the last time. The
central bank will reaffirm once again their commitment to keep rates high for
as long as necessary to ensure that inflation returns to their 2% target. The
market expects 3 rate cuts in 2024 with the first one coming in June.
The ECB is expected to keep the deposit
rate unchanged at 4.00% vs. 4.00% prior.
The central bank is likely to repeat that they will keep rates high as long as
necessary to return to their 2% target. The rate cuts expectations for 2024
increased recently following the big miss in the Eurozone
CPI report and the ECB
member Schnabel’s comments where
she acknowledged that further rate hikes are rather unlikely after the latest
inflation data. The market now sees 150 bps worth
of rate cuts in 2024 with the first one coming as soon as March.
The US Retail Sales M/M are expected at
-0.1% vs. -0.1% prior.
Retail Sales have been strong for most of the year, although they contracted in
the previous month. The Control Group though, came in line with expectation at
0.2% with a positive revision to the prior figure. A strong report might make
the market to trim the amount of rate cuts expected in 2024 while a weak
release could increase them.
The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a more timely indicator on
the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, which shows us that layoffs have not yet picked up notably, but
Continuing Claims have been rising at a fast pace and that’s indicative of
people finding it harder to get another job after being laid off. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 221K vs. 220K prior,
while there’s no estimate at the time of writing for Continuing Claims,
although the last week’s number was 1861K vs. 1925K prior.
Friday
Friday is the Flash PMIs day where we will
see how business activity in the Manufacturing and Services sector is faring in
December:
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
NOTE: Previews are listed in day order
UK Jobs (Tue):
Consensus figures are yet to be published for the
employment report, however, headline earnings growth in the 3M/YY period to
October is expected to slow to 7.8% from 7.9% with the ex-bonus figure seen
slipping to 7.4% from 7.7%. The prior report saw the unemployment rate
unexpectedly hold steady at 4.2%, albeit many analysts have dismissed the
validity of these figures given that they are using “experimental data”. That
being said, vacancies have continued to decline and PAYE payroll growth has
slowed. On the earnings front, both headline and ex-bonus earnings slowed in
the 3M/YY period to September. Ahead of the upcoming release, economists at
Pantheon Macroeconomics “look for zero month-to-month growth in the PAYE
measure of employees in November, which would be consistent with an ongoing
increase in the unemployment rate”. On the earnings front, the consultancy
suggests “most of the available indicators point to a smaller month-to-month
increase in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, in October than in the
first nine months of this year”. From a policy perspective, the release is
unlikely to have much bearing on Thursday’s announcement, however, any notable
fluctuation in wage growth could see traders reassess 2024 rate calls.
US CPI (Tue):
Headline CPI is expected to rise +0.1% Y/Y in
November (prev. +0.0%). Core CPI is seen rising +0.2% M/M, matching the October
rise. The data comes a day ahead of the FOMC policy announcement (unchanged
expected), and while it is unlikely to shift the dial for December, it may help
shape expectations about future Fed policy easing, with market expectations
looking for 125bps of rate cuts in 2024. Fed Chair Powell recently reminded us
that inflation was still well above target, though acknowledged it was moving
in the right direction, with inflation coming down meaningfully of late. Still,
the Fed Chair said he wants to see more progress, and retained optionality for
resuming rate hikes if the situation demanded.
Japanese Tankan Survey (Tue):
Participants will be looking to see if there is a
continued improvement in sentiment among Japan’s large manufacturers after the
mostly better-than-expected readings last quarter; that Q3 survey topped
forecasts, with the headline Large Manufacturing Index at 9.0 (vs exp. 6.0),
while sentiment amongst large non-manufacturers climbed to the highest since
1991 at 27.0 (exp. 24.0) and Large All Industry Capex Estimate improved as
expected to 13.6% (exp. 13.6%). The better-than-expected sentiment among large
enterprises provides encouragement for the economy; SMBC Nikko Securities noted
the Japan was on course for domestic-demand-led growth and the prior survey had
also shown an improved outlook amongst large industries. Further, the Reuters
monthly Tankan survey ¬– which is seen to provide a signal for the BoJ’s
quarterly release – has shown two consecutive months of improvement, with
December’s gauge rising to 12.0 from a previous of 6.0 in November, and 4.0 in
October.
FOMC Announcement (Wed):
The FOMC will maintain rates at 5.25-5.50% at its
December policy meeting. The consensus now thinks that the Fed is done with
rate hikes, despite Chair Powell stating before the pre-meeting blackout that
the central bank was prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes
appropriate to do so. The market’s attention is now rapidly shifting towards
when the Fed will begin cutting rates, and traders will look to the updated
projections, and how many rate cuts the Fed is pencilling in for next year (in
the September SEP, the Fed saw rates ending 2024 at between 5.00-5.25%).
According to a Reuters poll, economists see the Fed holding rates at current
levels until July 2024, but money markets are fully pricing the first rate cut
in May, with a decent chance that it could even come in March. The Fed may be
reticent to give credence to market expectations since it risks undoing some of
its tightening efforts to bring still-above target inflation back down.
Analysts expect progress on tackling inflation to continue, but according to
the Reuters survey, all inflation measures polled (CPI, core CPI, PCE, core
PCE) are all seen above the Fed’s 2% goal until at least 2025, and this has led
some to argue that the market is too aggressive in its dovish pricing. Analysts
are also already thinking about the optics of how the Fed will frame the
loosening of policy. According to the Reuters poll, economists say the first
cut will be framed as an adjustment of real rate of interest, not the start of
monetary stimulus (real rates would become more restrictive if left unchanged
as inflation declines). “With markets already convinced that the Fed’s
tightening cycle is over, the focus at the December FOMC meeting will be on any
clues as to how soon and how far rates will be cut,” Capital Economics says.
“We suspect officials will still be wary of sending an overly dovish message in
the updated statement and projections and any explicit discussion of near-term
rate cuts is unlikely,” it adds, “nevertheless, the Fed will need to acknowledge
the reality that inflation is rapidly heading back to the 2% target.”
BCB Announcement (Wed):
Since August, the BCB has been in an easing cycle,
and has thus far trimmed rates by 150bps, taking it to 12.25% in November.
Guidance from officials suggests the central bank will continue the cadence of
-50bps at its December meeting, as inflation is well-behaved despite being
slightly above the target. BCB chief Campos Neto explained that as inflation
falls, real rates rise, giving the BCB scope to lower rates and for policy to
still be restrictive. Campos Neto also said that the current pace of easing was
appropriate, adding that this signalling will be the pace for the next two
meetings. According to the BCB’s own poll, economists see the Selic ending this
year at 11.75%, and see further declines to 9.25% by the end of 2024.
UK GDP (Wed):
Expectations are for October’s monthly GDP to
contract by 0.1% (vs an expansion of 0.2% in the prior month). The September
release saw the overall Q3 print flat at 0% vs. the 0.2% expansion seen in Q2
with the UK avoiding a contraction, thanks in part to net imports. For the
upcoming report, analysts at Investec suggest that services (which accounts for
79% of total GDP) likely saw 0.2% in gross value added, with softness also seen
in retail sales and strike action in the public sector. On the production front,
the Investec suggests that soft PMIs are indicative of “stuttering
manufacturing output”. More broadly, Investec notes “a common driver of the
weaker trend in the economy is the higher interest environment, which is
filtering through to GDP progressively as households and firms refinance
expiring fixed-term borrowing”. From a BoE perspective, greater attention will
likely be placed on Tuesday’s labour data, which itself will ultimately have
little impact on the immediate policy path.
New Zealand GDP (Wed):
Q3 Q/Q GDP is expected at 0.2% (prev. 0.9%) and
the Y/Y metric is seen at 0.4% (prev. 1.8%). The RBNZ has pencilled in a Q/Q
figure of 0.3%. Analysts at Westpac believe activity was little changed in the
quarter, as the boost in activity in the services sector (bolstered by
government-funded activity) was offset by a sharp decline in manufacturing
sector activity, according to their estimates. Westpac sees the Q/Q at -0.1%
and the Y/Y at 0.2% – “Statistics NZ have indicated that the level of activity
will likely be revised down modestly following the incorporation of new annual
benchmarks.” As a reminder, the RBNZ at the end of November opted for a hawkish
hold on rates and emphasised persisting inflation, whilst the statement
reiterated that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for a
sustained period of time and are restricting spending in the economy with
consumer price inflation declining as is necessary to meet the committee’s
remit.
BoE Announcement (Thu):
Expectations are for the MPC to stand pat,
maintain its Base Rate at 5.25% for a third consecutive meeting as policymakers
take stock of actions already taken. Recent data saw headline CPI decline to
4.6% Y/Y in October from 6.7%, core fall to 5.7% Y/Y from 6.1% and all services
slip to 6.6% Y/Y from 6.9% (vs MPC forecasts for 6.9%). On the growth front,
September GDP expanded by 0.2% M/M (exp. 0.0%), whilst more timely PMI metrics
saw the composite PMI rise to 50.7 in November from 48.7 previously, with the
services component moving back into expansionary territory. In the labour
market, the unemployment rate in the 3-month period to September held steady at
4.2%, whilst wage growth continued to ease as the labour market loosens but
ultimately not yet consistent with the MPC’s inflation target (note the latest
jobs report will be released next Tuesday). In terms of commentary from the MPC
members, Governor Bailey has remarked that the full effect of higher rates is
yet to hit the UK, adding that the MPC is not in a place to discuss rate cuts.
Chief Economist Pill stated that the middle of next year does not seem totally
unreasonable for considering the rates stance, before somewhat walking back
this comment by reaffirming that “assume rates are to stay restrictive for an
extensive period”. Ultimately, with economic developments not shifting enough
to warrant a change in stance from the Bank, analysts at Oxford Economics
expect the MPC to continue to vote 6-3 in favour of standing pat on rates
(hawkish dissent from Greene, Haskel and Mann). In terms of the policy
statement, the MPC will likely reiterate that “policy will need to be
sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2%
target.” In terms of an outlook beyond the upcoming meeting, markets currently
price the first 25bps reduction by June with a total of 81bps of cuts priced by
year-end.
ECB Announcement (Thu):
Expectations are for the ECB to stand pat on rates
for a second consecutive meeting after halting its hiking campaign in October.
Market pricing concurs, with such an outcome priced with around 94% certainty.
In terms of recent economic developments, November’s flash CPI fell to 2.4% Y/Y
from 2.9%, whilst the super-core metric declined to 3.6% Y/Y from 4.2%. On the
growth front, Q3 GDP is currently estimated to be circa -0.1% Q/Q, whilst more
timely survey data saw a pick-up in the Eurozone composite PMI for November
from 46.5 to 47.6, but ultimately is still suggestive of negative growth in Q4.
In the labour market, the unemployment rate remains just above its historic low
and policymakers continue to eye firm wage growth. In terms of communications
from ECB officials, great attention has been placed on remarks from Germany’s
Schnabel, who noted that further hikes were “rather unlikely” after November
inflation data cooled, and declined to endorse guidance for steady rates for
several quarters. These remarks have subsequently accelerated pricing for 2024
rate cuts with a March reduction priced with around 80% probability; that said,
Latvia’s Kazaks dismissed the idea of a March rate cut as “science fiction”. In
terms of surveyed expectations for next year, 51 of the 90 economists surveyed
by Reuters forecast at least one rate reduction at before the July meeting.
Signalling for 2024 action may come via the accompanying macro projections,
which ING suggests should see downward revisions for growth and inflation in
2024 and 2025. Finally, speculation continues to mount over the Bank’s balance
sheet and a potential early conclusion to PEPP reinvestments after Lagarde
stated on November 27th that PEPP will be discussed in the “not-so-distant
future”. However, many desks are of the view that the December meeting would be
too soon for such an adjustment.
SNB Announcement (Thu):
Expected to leave the policy rate at 1.75%, after
leaving rates unchanged in September (consensus at the time was evenly split
between a hike and hold). A decision that was taken to allow for the
publication of more data to see if tightening taken thus far was sufficient to
counter “remaining inflationary pressure”. In particular, it gave the SNB time
to consider November’s CPI, which was the first measure to capture the mid-2023
rental reference rate hike, before potentially tightening further. An inflation
release which was markedly cooler than expected printing at 1.4% Y/Y, well
below market expectations of 1.7% and the SNB’s Q4 view of 2.0%, and as such
removed the possibility of a December hike and theoretically opened the door to
a cut. While a cut cannot be ruled out, particularly given the SNB’s history of
surprising markets and current pricing implying a 25% chance of a December cut,
it is somewhat unlikely given uncertainty over the rental increase. As FSO
caveats, how much/quickly the adjustment will affect the rental price index
cannot be conclusively assessed on November’s number alone; a point which means
that while markets are pricing cuts, a hike also cannot be ruled out at March’s
gathering, depending on the influence of rent – both Chairman Jordan and Vice
Chair Schlegel have spoken about the possibly inflationary influence of rent
ahead. Rates aside, the SNB may well tweak its FX language to de-emphasise the
selling element, given the notable CHF strength that has resulted.
Norges Announcement (Thu):
November’s announcement saw rates left at 4.25%
with guidance that the policy will “likely be raised in December” countered by
the admission that rates may be left unchanged in December if “the committee
becomes more assured that underlying inflation is on the decline”. November’s
inflation will be released on the 11th, before the policy announcement on the
14th. For October, CPI came in markedly hotter-than-expected by markets and at
the time was judged to essentially cement a December hike, despite the measures
being cooler and in-line with the Norges forecast for the headline and core
Y/Y. Following this, Q3 GDP was very soft and serves as a dovish-impulse going
into the announcement. Most recently, the key Regional Network was (as leaked)
soft on the growth front but wage expectations were essentially unrevised;
potentially giving rate setters some confidence that underlying pressures are
falling. Overall, the decision is tough to call in the absence of November’s
inflation data which is due on the 11th.
Swedish CPIF (Thu):
October’s release saw the Riksbank’s preferred
measure (CPIF ex-Energy) come in at 6.1% Y/Y, which was markedly down from the
prior 6.9% and shy of market expectations for a 6.3% print; however, this was
above the Riksbank’s own forecast of 6.0%. Following this, the Riksbank
undertook a neutral-hold in November and maintained pricing of a 40% chance of
another hike, though Governor Thedeen described it as 50/50. Given the Riksbank
doesn’t meet until January, they will also have access to December’s inflation
data before making a decision. Nonetheless, for November CPIF is expected to
continue moderating but SEB believes that unusually cold weather and an
increase in electricity prices will result in it being above the Riksbank’s
3.6% Y/Y forecast.
Australian Jobs (Thu):
Employment Change for November is forecast at 10k
(prev. 55k) whilst the Unemployment Rate is seen at 3.8% (prev. 3.7%), and the
Participation Rate is seen ticking lower to 66.9% (prev. 67.0%). Desks flag the
jobs created by the 2023 Australian Indigenous Voice referendum dropping out of
the employment count, with the Electoral Commission suggesting up to 100k jobs
were created by the referendum. Analysts at ING also suggest some of the
part-timers may however convert to full-time jobs. “The latest report from ANZ
also showed a 4.6% M/M fall in job advertisements, the biggest drop since
August 2021. This suggests that the labour market is cooling. The overall
employment change is likely to be strongly negative. We expect the unemployment
rate to edge up to 3.8% Y/Y”, says ING. Meanwhile, Westpac suggested “history
tells us that previous referendums and major voting events have not had a major
impact on employment (possible due to many election officials already being in
employment when they take on these additional roles), and thus forecast an
above-forecast figure of +25k for the employment change and a below-forecast
3.7% for the unemployment rate.” It is also worth noting that alongside the
Australian Labour Force report, the RBA bulletin will be released, and RBA
Assistant Governor Jones is slated to speak.
Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales, FAI (Fri):
Industrial Production for November is forecast at
5.6% Y/Y (prev. 4.6%), whilst Retail Sales are expected at 12.5% Y/Y (prev.
7.6%), and the Fixed Asset Investments are seen at 3.0% Y/Y (prev. 2.9%). Using
the latest Caixin PMI releases as a proxy, the metrics themselves showed
improvements. “The macro economy has been recovering. Household consumption,
industrial production and market expectations have all improved”, the
manufacturing release noted, “But domestic and foreign demand is still
insufficient, employment pressure remains high, and economic recovery has yet
to find solid footing.” Analysts at ING believe that “Any improvement in
industrial production is therefore likely to be quite modest. We are expecting
industrial production to grow 5.8% Y/Y, but this will likely be helped along by
favourable base effects. Meanwhile, the services release suggested “Both
services supply and demand expanded, as the market continued to heal. The
gauges for business activity and total new orders were above 50 for the 11th
consecutive month and hit three-month highs. However, some surveyed companies
reported that the market improvement was slightly weaker than expected –
analysts at ING suggested: “favourable base effects could also help retail
sales growth post double-digit Y/Y growth at 12%.” It’s also worth noting that
an NBS press conference is slated after the data release.
Eurozone Flash PMI (Fri):
November’s final PMIs saw modest upward revisions,
but the series remained well in contractionary territory. As such, HCOB’s
nowcast indicates that the bloc will end the year in a technical recession,
though it is expected to be very modest in nature. In December, we look for any
indication that the growth outlook is more/less downbeat than currently implied
by the nowcast or the timeliest Sentix data for the period which showed “no
signs of an upswing in any region”. Growth aside, the focus point will be any
fresh wage commentary after the November survey saw a wage-driven uptick in
services cost pressures, particularly in Germany. A finding which is of
particular note for the ECB; Vice President de Guindos pointed out that a wage
increase could still result in an important inflationary impact. Note, the PMIs
will be released one day after the ECB’s December announcement.
UK Flash PMI (Fri):
November’s release was subject to an upward
revision for the composite which brought it more convincingly into expansionary
territory at 50.7, a revision which S&P described as evidence of a modest
rebound in business activity, after three months of decline. In reality, the
data should be indicative of even greater relative GDP strength given the PMI
omits the public sector. For December, Pantheon Macroeconomics believes the
composite is more likely to increase further than fall given upside in the future
activity index. Growth aside, inflationary developments will be sought with
November’s steepest increase in service sector charges since July a hawkish
development heading into December’s BoE and one that may well see the three MPC
hawks continue their dissent. S&P said “service providers signalled another
round of strong input cost pressures, largely due to rising staff wages …
contributed to the fastest increase in output charges across the service
economy for four months”; a point which BoE Governor Bailey may well use to
justify any pushback on market pricing, which has pencilled in 75bps worth of
easing in 2024. Note, the PMIs will be released one day after the BoE’s
December announcement.
This article originally appeared on Newsquawk
This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.
The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 12.56 points or 0.67% at 1880.81.
In addition, all the major indices closed higher for the sixth consecutive week. The Dow Industrial Average eked out a 0.01% gain – the smallest of gains but still a gain.
A look at the final numbers shows:
The Russell 2000 rose 0.97%
For the trading week:
The so-called „Magnificent 7“ mostly outperformed with the exception of Amazon and Alphabet. Alphabet moved lower on the day. Nvidia was the biggest winner with a gain of 1.95%:
For the trading week the Magnificent 7 all moved higher with the exception of Microsoft:
Looking at the S&P components energy and information technology led the gainers (seven components rose). Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Real estate were the weakest:
Next week we will see if the string can extend to seven. The FOMC rate decision will be the biggest influencer. Higher stocks may keep the Fed chair from being too positive about rate policy/inflation into 2024.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.