• Apple closes above $3 trillion in market cap. Nasdaq has best start to year in 40 years
• WTI crude oil futures settled at $70.64
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -1 to 545 rigs
• Dallas Fed Trimmed mean price index falls to 3.2% annualized versus 4.3% in April
• Feds Goolsbee: There is nothing in the Feds mandate about stock prices
• European equity close: Strong finish to the quarter
• Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP Now +2.2% vs +1.8% prior
• US Supreme Court strikes down Biden’s student loan forgiveness program
• Bank of Canada Q2 business outlook survey sees improving inflation expectations
• Former ECB vice-president says the hiking cycle will end in July
• June UMich final US consumer sentiment 64.4 vs 63.9 expected
• SEC says spot bitcoin filings are inadequate – WSJ
• US May core PCE inflation +4.6% y/y vs +4.7% expected
• Canada GDP for April 0.0% versus 0.2% expected
• The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the North American session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar mixed, Eurozone core inflation sticky

US core PCE prices (excluding food and fuel costs) for the month of May rose 0.3% as expected but the YoY level was mostly lower at 4.6% versus 4.7% last month and expected. The PCE price index fell from 4.3% to 3.8%. That was the 1st decline below 4% since early 2021. Personal consumption (adjusted for inflation) was flat after 0.2% last month. Personal income increased 0.4% versus 0.3% last month. Adjusted for inflation, May’s spending was flat.

Later the University of Michigan consumer sentiment exceeded the preliminary index of 63.9 with a rise 64.4. The gain was much higher than the 59.2 last month. Within the report, the 1-year inflation expectations remained steady at 3.3% (versus 4.2% last month). The 5-year inflation expectations was also steady at 3.0% (same as the preliminary) and down marginally from 3.1% last month.

The USD moved lower as traders focused on the hopes for even lower inflation going forward. The USD is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies. The NZD is the strongest.

It is month end and looking at the major currencies vs the USD this month, the USD is mostly lower. The exception is vs the JPY with the USD gaining 3.58% vs that currency.

Below are the % changes of the USD vs the respective currencies in June.

• EUR: -2.06%
• JPY: +3.58%
• GBP, -2.07%
• CHF, -1.71%
• CAD -2.38%
• AUD: -2.45%
• NZD: -1.96%

For the 1H of 2023, the USD was mixed with a strong 10%+ gain vs the JPY. The greenback also moved higher vs the AUD and the NZD, but was down vs the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD. The dollar was the weakest vs the GBP (down 5%) :

• EUR: -1.96%
• JPY“ +10.07%
• GBP: -5.03%
• CHF: -3.16%
• CAD: -2.16%
• AUD: +2.27%
• NZD: +3.33%

Looking at other markets today:

• WTI crude oil futures rose $0.61 or 0.4% $70.45. For the month prices are up 3.47% (up $2.34).
• Gold rose $11.95 or 0.63% at 1919.36. For the month, the price fell -2.21% (down $43.41)
• Silver today rose $0.19 or 0.84% at $22.74. For the month prices are up 3.45% (up $2.36)
• Bitcoin had a volatile day with the price moving down to a low of $29,508 after trading as high as $31,268. It is trading at $30,339. For the month bitcoin rose 12% or $3178

Looking at the US stocks today, the major indices all closed solidly higher. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which had its best 1st half of the year in 40 years.

• Dow industrial average rose 285.18 points or 0.4%
• S&P index was 53.92 or 1.23%
• NASDAQ index rose 196.60 points or 1.45%

For the trading month:

• Dow industrial average rose 4.56%
• S&P index rose 6.47%
• NASDAQ index rose 6.59%

The gains in the 2023 have been propelled by large cap tech stocks.

Some of the 1H big gainers included:

• Nvidia rose 189.46%
• Meta up 1.38.47%
• Tesla rose 112.51
• Microsoft rose 42%
• Apple rose 49.15%
• Amazon rose at 50.13%
• Alphabet rose 35.67%
• Broadcom rose 55.14%
• Chipotle rose 54.16%

Next week, starts with holiday trading in the US due to the 4th of July holiday on Tuesday. The stock and bond markets will close early.

The week will end with the all-important US jobs report with Non Farm Payroll expected to add 222K (last month plus 339K). The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 3.6% from 3.7% last month and average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%.

Canada will also release jobs data on Friday, with limited change of 22,000 expected (versus -17.3 thousand last month.

In between, the other key events include:

• Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest rate decision on Wednesday in Australia. Market participants are torn between no change and a 25 basis point hike
• ISM data will be released on Monday in Europe and the US.
• FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday at 2 PM
• US Services PMI will be released on Thursday.

Thank you for your support. Have a great weekend.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of Apple closed above $3 trillion for the 1st time. It was also the 1st company to do that. The NASDAQ index had its best start to the year in 40 years.

The major indices all closed higher for the week and the month.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average rose 285.16 points or 0.84% at 34407.59
• S&P index was 53.92 points or 1.23% at 4450.37
• NASDAQ index rose 196.60 points or 1.45% at 13787.93

The Russell 2000 small-cap stocks rose 7.14 points or 0.3% at 1888.73.

For the week:

• Dow industrial average rose 2.02%
• S&P index rose 2.35%
• NASDAQ index rose 2.19%

For the month of June:

• Dow industrial average rose 4.56%
• S&P index rose 6.47%
• NASDAQ index rose 6.50%

For the 2nd quarter:

• Dow industrial average rose 3.41%
• S&P index rose 8.30%
• NASDAQ index rose 12.81%

For the 1st half of 2023:

• Dow industrial average rose 3.8%. In comparison in 2022 the Dow industrial average fell -8.78%
• S&P index rose 15.91%. In 2022 the S&P index fell -19.44%
• NASDAQ index rose 31.73%. In 2023 the NASDAQ index fell -33.10%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There is no give up in the stock rally. The Dow Industrial Average now up 1% on the day. The S&P is up 1.38%. Both are making a new session highs. The NASDAQ index is off its eyes but only marginally. It leads the way with a gain of 1.6%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDJPY moved lower today, coming off the boil a bit (see videos here and here).The drift lower started against a channel trend line against swing highs from this week (green numbered circles). The lows have inched below the lower channel trend line but stalled ahead of the rising 100-hour MA (blue line) currently at 144.19. The low for the day has reached 144.194.

What next?

We are heading into the close and it looks like the price will remain above the 100-hour moving average. That will leave next week open to either probe further to the downside on a break, OR bounce off the level and continue the bullish bias.

Fundamentally, the BOJ remains committed to expansionary policy. The Fed is likely to hike in July and potentially more in 2023,

However, if there is a shift in policy in Japan, or if the BOJ intervenes, there can be a flush back to the downside. .

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US data continues to
surprise to the upside and as a consequence led the market to reprice interest
rates expectations on the more hawkish side as the Fed members keep on
repeating that two or more rate hikes cannot be ruled out if the data remains solid.
On the other hand, the BoJ remains stuck with its loose monetary policy causing
further weakness in the JPY. There are small hints that the BoJ may tweak the
YCC policy at the next meeting, but the central bank has been disappointing
markets for quite a long time now.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see
that USDJPY keeps on charging higher with almost no pullbacks. This strong
rally is led by the hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations as the US
data keeps on surprising to the upside. The breakout of the resistance at
142.17 has opened the door for a rally towards the 150.00 level as there’s no
clear strong resistance until then.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the current
rally is supported by the moving averages as the
buyers keep on leaning on them to position for further upside. In fact, now
that the price is pulling back into the red 21 moving average and the trendline, we can
expect the buyers to step in again. The sellers, on the other hand, will need
to see the price to break below the trendline to start looking for a bigger
pullback into the 142.17 resistance now turned support.

USDJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see how
cleanly the price has been printing higher highs and higher lows and that the
whole move after the breakout is diverging with
the MACD. This
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. So, as long as the price stays above the trendline we can expect
more upside, but a break lower would signal the pullback towards the 142.17
support. Today, we have the US
PCE report and a beat is likely to strengthen the USD leading to more upside in
USDJPY, but a miss should provide the pullback into the 142.17 support.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• To implement prudent monetary policy accurately and forcefully
• To effectively support domestic demand expansion, improve private consumption environment
• To ensure delivery of housing, promote healthy development of real estate market
• To keep liquidity reasonably ample, also maintain reasonable credit growth

The main message is the same, in that they are still going to do what they can to bolster support for the economy. The issue here is that so far, a lot of these measures have not really helped and with corporate profits falling and domestic demand stuttering, Beijing might have to really step up to try and get things back on track post-Covid.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

­­Memecoin
Mooky is gearing up for its final presale phase, having raised $900,000 to
date. More than just a novel crypto token, Mooky aims to support the
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Mooky
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token holders. While the MOOKY token draws its cues from other successful
memecoins, the project has a more ambitious mandate. Mooky was conceived to
increase awareness of global environmental challenges and to provide real-world
solutions.

The
project aims to raise enough funds to sustain an extensive reforestation
initiative in key locations around the world. As part of its commitment to
nature, Mooky has earmarked donations to charities working on sustainable
environmental causes.

From a crypto-economic
perspective, the MOOKY token features zero tax and low slippage, providing
ample incentives for traders to get involved. Underpinning the project is a
deep lore that aligns with Mooky’s core goals.

Mooky is
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has stunning landscapes, abundant vegetation, and wildlife. As settlers came to
the island, they destroyed the vegetation and polluted the air. The monkeys of
Pygmy decide to fight back peacefully, teaching the settlers how to respect
nature and live harmoniously. Under the leadership of Mooky, they become united
and restore nature.

To
support the project’s development while providing greater opportunities for
community participation, Mooky has created a collection of 1,000 NFTs. Each NFT
is linked to a tree planted in the real world. Holders can access the Ventures Club,
which grants access to exclusive rewards and events.

With
five days left in the $MOOKY token presale, there is still ample opportunity
for crypto holders to get involved and capture the upside to a project that
combines memes and nature to great effect.

About
MOOKY

MOOKY is
a community-driven initiative launched in 2023 that embraces the spirit of
digital innovation to make a positive impact on the environment. More than just
a meme token, MOOKY represents a global community united by a common goal: to
inspire change and contribute to global tree-planting efforts.

MOOKY
also stands as a symbol of creativity in the digital space, offering unique 3D
NFTs that are each linked to real-world tree-planting initiatives. These NFTs
serve not only as digital collectibles but also as an entry ticket to the
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MOOKY is
more than a digital token; it’s a movement aiming to better our environment
while fostering a unique and engaging digital ecosystem. Join MOOKY in its
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Users
can purchase MOOKY (https://buy.mooky.io).

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY knocks on the door of intervention territory
• Japan’s Matsuno says closely watching FX moves with high sense of urgency
• Eurozone June preliminary CPI +5.5 vs +5.6% y/y expected
• France June preliminary CPI +4.5% vs +4.6% y/y expected
• Germany May retail sales +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• Germany May import price index -1.4% vs -1.4% m/m expected
• UK June Nationwide house prices +0.1% vs -0.3% m/m expected
• China reportedly surveyed some foreign banks about dollar deposit rates
• RBA to raise cash rate by 25 bps to 4.35% next week – Reuters poll
• What is priced in for the RBA policy decision next week?

Markets:

• GBP leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 3.870%
• Gold down 0.1% to $1,905.63
• WTI crude down 0.1% to $69.76
• Bitcoin up 1.2% to $30,775

And just like that, we’re about to reach the halfway point for the 2023 year.

The session itself was decent as there were some economic releases to digest but nothing too impactful at the end of the day. Of note, euro area headline annual inflation dropped further in June but core annual inflation ticked a little higher. On the balance of things, that still vindicates the more hawkish posture by the ECB at least.

The euro itself is just a touch lower on the day, as the dollar is sitting more mixed across the board. EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0850 with the range for the day still rather narrow.

On the dollar, the currency itself has seen plenty of pushing and pulling in the last six months. But so far this year, the dollar index itself is ending up little changed. And I would argue that speaks to the resilience of the greenback considering how many were calling for its head amid anticipation of a Fed policy pivot.

Looking to today, USD/JPY did rise to just above 145.00 in Asia but is now little changed around 144.70. Traders are having to weigh up intervention risks, so perhaps there is some element of profit-taking as well.

In the equities space, stocks are keeping some enthusiasm towards the end of the week. European indices and US futures are higher but there is still the final month-end/quarter-end stretch to deal with later. Despite last week’s setback on growth worries, equities have enjoyed a good month in June.

Have a pleasant weekend, everyone. And I’ll catch you guys again next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US data has been
consistently surprising to the upside since the last FOMC meeting. Coupled with
the Fed’s message of more rate hikes coming in case the data remains strong,
the market started to price in a more hawkish path for interest rates and this
repricing favoured the US Dollar. The RBNZ, on the other hand, paused at the
last meeting, so this is creating a bit of a policy divergence and leading to a
lower NZDUSD rate.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD has been
falling consistently since the middle of June and the target now looks to be
the 0.5987 low. The moving averages have
crossed to the downside signalling a change in trend. At the moment, it’s a
sellers’ market so it’s more likely to see the pullbacks getting faded as the
market prices in a more hawkish path for the Fed.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that eventually
NZDUSD couldn’t break the bullish flag to the
upside and instead broke down, invalidating the bullish setup and opening the
door for a fall into the 0.5987 support. Now, we
should see the sellers stepping in here at the previous support turned resistance with a
defined risk above the resistance zone where we can find a strong confluence from the
red 21 moving average, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
and the broken lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will
need the price to break above the resistance to get some conviction on further
upside and target the upper bound of the channel.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the resistance zone and notice that there’s also the round 0.61 number giving
further strength to this area. In fact, a break to the upside would be more
meaningful than a rejection because it would show a lot of strength and a rally
will be more likely. Today, we have the US
PCE report and lower than expected figures should weaken the USD in the short
term, while higher than expected reading should strengthen it.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +6.1%
• CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
• Prior -0.1%
• HICP +6.8% vs +6.7% y/y expected
• Prior +6.3%
• HICP +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expected
• Prior -0.2%

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.