Headlines:

• Dollar under pressure as US CPI data looms
• Sterling gets a lift as UK jobs report vindicates another BOE rate hike
• UK May payrolls change 23k vs -135k prior
• BOE appointee Greene: It is reasonable to expect inflation to come down fairly quickly
• China reportedly considering broad stimulus package to bolster economic support
• OPEC maintains demand outlook for the year but warns on economic risks
• Germany June ZEW current conditions -56.5 vs -40.0 expected
• Germany May final CPI +6.1% vs +6.1% y/y prelim
• Spain May final CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y prelim
• US May NFIB small business optimism index 89.4 vs 89.0 prior

Markets:

• GBP leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 4.1 bps to 3.724%
• Gold up 0.4% to $1,964.37
• WTI crude up 1.8% to $68.32
• Bitcoin up 0.8% to $26,085

European trading today served more or less as a placeholder ahead of the US CPI data to come later.

The dollar dropped in the build up to the main event as markets seem to be leaning towards a softer report later in the day. EUR/USD briefly clipped the 1.0800 mark and is keeping just below its 100-day moving average of 1.0805 for now. USD/JPY is little changed though around 139.40-50 levels, despite lower Treasury yields.

The pound was a notable gainer after the UK labour market report showed a fall in the jobless rate while wages continue to run hot. That saw GBP/USD push up from 1.2530 to 1.2565 and is now keeping at the highs around 1.2575.

That saw money markets price in an additional rate hike as well for the BOE, with the terminal rate now seen at 5.75%.

Besides that, commodity currencies are also seeing a decent advance with USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.3345 after rising yesterday on a plunge in oil prices. The key trendline support around 1.3336 is still the big technical level to watch for now.

Then, we have AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6780 as buyers are nearing a test of the April and May highs near 0.6800.

Equities were firmer earlier to start the session but have given back nearly all of its gains as traders appear to be squaring positions ahead of the key risk event in around 30 minutes‘ time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Considering the recent hot CPI report and this
morning’s incredibly strong Employment report with
high wage growth, it is anticipated that the Bank of England (BoE) will
continue to raise interest rates in order to address one of the highest
inflation rates among the major economies. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan
(BoJ) is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy this week,
which has played a role in the significant depreciation of the Japanese Yen
(JPY) over the past two years.

This divergence in monetary policies has led to a
strong upward movement in the GBPJPY pair. It appears that only concerns about
a potential global economic downturn can cause the pair to decline, otherwise
the BoJ will need to switch to a hawkish stance to defend the JPY depreciation.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the buyers keep
leaning on the moving averages to
position for more upside on the GBPJPY pair. The recent hot inflation data from
the UK and the high wage growth should keep the BoE on track to increase
interest rates.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a big divergence with the
MACD going on,
which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we only got some shallow pullbacks, and a reversal is
unlikely to occur at least until we get a fundamental catalyst that points to a
recession or the BoJ becomes hawkish.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has recently bounced from a support near
the 174.50 level where we had also the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The
big spike today is because of the strong employment report and unless we get
bad US CPI data today, we should keep seeing the GBPJPY pair rallying.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Market picture

The crypto
market cap rose 1% in 24 hours to $1.06 trillion. Bitcoin adds 1%, while Ethereum
just 0.4%. Meanwhile, the top altcoins try to recover some losses, adding
between 0.2% (Cardano) and 4% (BNB). The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index
is in the Fear territory at 45 (-2 points overnight), whereas the Fear &
Greed index for the stock market is at 79 (extreme greed).

Bitcoin is
struggling for a third day to hold above $26K. This struggle away from
meaningful technical levels shows how heavy the crypto market is right now,
despite optimism in equities and a slightly decreased USD rate. Technically, to
break the downtrend, Bitcoin needs to overcome $27K, and a drop below $26.5K is
required to confirm the downtrend. The second scenario seems more likely.

According to
CoinShares, investments in crypto funds fell by $88 million last week, the most
in three months and the eighth consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin fell by
$52 million and Ethereum by $36 million.

According to
Glassnode, outflows from Coinbase and Binance reached $4 billion during the
week. Crypto traders, spooked by SEC lawsuits, are withdrawing assets from exchanges
en masse.

News background

According to
CryptoQuant, bitcoin reserves on US crypto exchanges have fallen below the 50%
– levels last seen in 2017. Assets are flowing to overseas exchanges due to
regulatory uncertainty and recent SEC actions against Binance and Coinbase.

Binance’s
share of the cryptocurrency market has fallen to 43%, according to analyst firm
CCData. Trading volume in the crypto market fell 15.7% m/m in May.

Polygon
developers defended their MATIC cryptocurrency, disagreeing with the SEC’s
characterisation of it as an unregistered security. The Solana Foundation also
criticised the SEC’s decision. Robinhood had previously announced its intention
to delist MATIC, ADA, and SOL.

North Korean
hackers have stolen $3 billion in cryptocurrency over the past five years to
fund the country’s nuclear programme, the Wall Street Journal reported.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

• World oil demand to rise by 2.35 mil bpd in 2023 (no change to previous forecast)
• China oil demand to rise to 840k bpd (up from 800k bpd previously)
• Sees world economic growth at 2.6% this year
• But there are rising uncertainties amid high inflation, rising interest rates
• It is also still unclear how and when Easter Europe geopolitics might be resolved

After the surprise output cuts, oil prices suffered a bit of a hangover and then a big plunge yesterday. It is making up for some lost ground today though, with WTI now up 1.9% to $68.40. That comes off a bounce of its 200-week moving average again, seen at $67.31 currently. That remains the key technical support level for oil since March.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The recent beat in the non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, followed by concerning
factors like a higher unemployment rate and fewer average weekly hours, has
resulted in a weakening of the USD. The market has adjusted its hawkish
expectations to less hawkish ones because a looser job market can help reduce
inflation. Additionally, the disappointment in the ISM Services Purchasing Managers‘
Index (PMI),
particularly in the lower prices paid sub-index, has further contributed to the
expectations that core inflation may soon start to normalise.

The significant miss in US jobless claims was taken with a grain of salt due
to seasonal adjustments. Continuing claims have shown even greater improvement,
indicating that people are finding jobs relatively quickly after being
unemployed. Overall, the strong hawkish sentiment observed in May due to
positive economic data has recently started to reverse. This change in
sentiment occurred as Federal Reserve members expressed a preference to hold
off on major actions during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
meeting and the misses in the data.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the big
reversal in hawkish expectations for the June FOMC meeting led the NZDUSD to
pullback into the downward trendline where we
can also find the red 21 moving average. This is
a key resistance level
and we will likely see the sellers leaning on this trendline to position for a
selloff towards the previous low at 0.6000. The buyers will need to break above
the trendline to extend the rally to new highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we also have
some confluence from the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the psychological 0.6150
level. This is a good spot for the sellers to position for more downside from
here. The buyers will need to break above the trendline to get the conviction
to target new highs.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price is diverging with
the MACD
trading into the trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum
often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, a divergence here may
be significant and increases the odds of the bearish setup. Anyway, today’s
data will decide where the NZDUSD will go next.

This week is packed with many significant events,
starting with the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today.
This report is expected to strongly influence expectations for tomorrow’s
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision and the next meetings. The most
straightforward scenarios are likely to be a rally in the NZDUSD pair if the
CPI data misses across the board and a selloff in case the data beats on all
fronts. The market is likely to pay more attention to the Core CPI, making it
the most critical measure to monitor.

Moving on to later in the
week, we have the release of the Jobless Claims report and the University of
Michigan consumer sentiment survey. During the previous release of the consumer
sentiment survey, there was a substantial rise in long-term inflation
expectations, which significantly impacted the market. Consequently, if this
survey fails to meet expectations, it would be viewed as positive news for NZDUSD.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Despite worrisome factors
such as a higher unemployment rate and lower average weekly hours, the recent
release of the NFP data has had minimal impact on the Nasdaq
Composite. The labour market has exhibited resilience, albeit with some
looseness, which could potentially result in lower inflation without causing
severe harm to the economy.

Furthermore, the
underperformance of the ISM Services PMI has not affected the market
significantly. Instead, speculation has arisen from the sub-index indicating
lower prices paid, suggesting the possibility of decreased core inflation
without substantial damage.

The market cautiously
considered the significant miss in Jobless Claims, taking into account the impact of
seasonal adjustments, while also acknowledging the improvements seen in
Continuing Claims. Overall, the market chose to emphasize the positive aspects
of the data rather than dwell on the negatives.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite started to struggle a lot just above the key 13174 swing level. The
index has been curiously underperforming its peers recently prompting some
speculation that we may be peaking. It had a great run since breaking out of
the bullish flag back in
March, but the good news are getting exhausted and we are entering a period
where the data is expected to show either a deterioration in the economy or a
stickier inflation.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that if were to get
a pullback, the nearest support zone is
at the upward trendline where we
can also find a previous swing support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
From a risk management perspective, that’s the best level where the buyers can
re-enter the market with a defined risk just below the support zone.

The sellers, on the other hand, are probably
already piling in here to target the trendline and a possible breakout, while
more conservative sellers may be waiting for a break of the trendline first
before jumping onboard to target the 12274 support.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve
been diverging with
the MACD right
at this resistance level. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often
followed by pullbacks or reversals. The fact that we are seeing it here makes
it more significant. A break below the minor upward trendline would give the
sellers even more conviction for a fall into the major upward trendline where
we are likely to find the buyers fighting for more upside.

This week holds a series of significant events for the Nasdaq
Composite. It all starts with the eagerly awaited US CPI report scheduled for
tomorrow. This report is anticipated to have a crucial influence on shaping the
market’s expectations for the upcoming FOMC rate decision, which is scheduled
for the following day. Additionally, later in the week, we can expect another
Jobless Claims report and the release of the University of Michigan consumer
sentiment survey. The previous release of this survey had a notable impact on
the market, primarily driven by a substantial surge in long-term inflation
expectations.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/CAD takes a look below key trendline support to start the week
• AUD/USD marches on towards April, May highs
• Central banks in the spotlight this week
• BOE’s Haskel: Further rate hikes cannot be ruled out
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 9 June CHF 509.8 bn vs CHF 519.0 bn prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities slightly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 0.8 bps to 3.753%
• Gold up 0.1% to $1,962.44
• WTI crude down 2.4% to $68.50
• Bitcoin down 1.9% to $25,953

It was a quiet session as markets get settled into what will be a blockbuster week coming up over the next few days.

There is a lack of key events and data today but that will all start to change from tomorrow onwards. Central banks are back in the spotlight and all eyes will be on the Fed in particular, with the ECB and BOJ policy decisions also in focus.

Major currencies aren’t showing much poise and the dollar is just marginally lower as the changes today are relatively minor at best. You can’t really blame traders for that as convictions are low at the moment, awaiting the key risk events to come.

EUR/USD did push up from 1.0750 to 1.0790 but is now keeping little changed around 1.0765 while GBP/USD moved up to test 1.2600 before slipping back to 1.2565 at the moment.

The loonie and aussie are the two more interesting currencies from a technical standpoint, testing some limits against the dollar as noted in the posts above.

Besides that, equities are steady alongside bonds so there isn’t much to work with for now. But the S&P 500 may look poised to test its August high of 4,325 so keep an eye out for that later in US trading.

Elsewhere, oil is suffering a poor start to the new week with a big slide of over 2% to $68.50 and is now testing key technical support from its 200-week moving average again. That level is where the drop in March and May were held, so it will be a big moment for oil traders over the next few days.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Market
picture

According to
CoinMarketCap, the total capitalisation of the crypto market fell 7.6% over the
week to $1.06 trillion, close to lows not seen since almost mid-March. Adding
to the market’s nervousness was a sharp sell-off in altcoins in light of the
SEC’s ongoing crusade against the crypto business.

The biggest
demand in such a market is for USDT, as issuer Tether decided to print an
additional 1 billion stablecoins.

Bitcoin once
again briefly acted as a safe haven, temporarily enjoying an influx of buyers
as one of the most liquid assets in the sector. At the same time, the technical
picture remains bearish. Bitcoin closed the week below its 200-week moving
average, which last time out resulted in a 20-week downtrend. On the daily
timeframe, there is little to cheer about as the decline remains within the
bearish corridor. However, the final victory of the bears can only be seen in
the case of a fix below $25,000, from which BTCUSD bounced over the weekend.

Ethereum
lost 6.5% to $1750. Other leading altcoins from the top 10 changed from 3%
(XRP) to -28% (Solana) and 22% (BNB).

News
background

The US
authority’s crackdown on the Binance and Coinbase exchanges has hit the entire
crypto industry. Altcoins, which the SEC classifies as securities, have been
particularly hard hit.

Former SEC
official John Reed Stark believes that owners of cryptocurrency assets should
abandon their investments because the storm in the US crypto industry has only
just begun. Crypto exchanges have no reason to comply with laws and regulations
prohibiting manipulation, insider trading and other fraudulent activities. According
to a former SEC official, they operate without oversight and offer poor
customer protection and risk identification.

Binance is
prepared to spend $1 billion to fight the SEC, Bitboy Crypto’s YouTube blogger
reported, citing the company’s lawyer.

According to
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, the likelihood of a negative stock market
recession in the US, as well as a gold hoarding trend coupled with Fed policy
tightening, could harm crypto investor sentiment. As a result of the pressure,
the riskiest assets could be pushed out of investment portfolios.

During a
conference call, Ethereum developers approved details of a future update to the
network, called Dencun (Cancun-Deneb), expected later this year.

Ethereum
co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a roadmap outlining key areas for the
sustainable development of the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

The pair has heavily respected the key trendline support (white line) from the November and early February lows over the past few months. But sellers are looking to make a play now in pushing below that as we get into what will be a blockbuster week for markets.

For me, I’m not going to be too convinced in chasing a technical break without confirmation of the main events from later this week. So, even with a potential break, buyers are not out of it yet as the dollar could still be set for a turnaround depending on the US CPI and Fed decision in the next few days.

Adding to that of course, there are also still several additional layers of support that sellers need to chew through.

• November low @ 1.3225
• February low @ 1.3262
• April low @ 1.3300
• May low @ 1.3314

That’s roughly a 90 pip layer where buyers can still show some fight to produce a reversal of sorts when push comes to shove this week. So, only if we do shake that off would I be more convinced of a technical breakdown below the 1.3200 mark for the pair.

But again, it all comes down to what the central bank decisions and big data will have to offer this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Despite revealing worrisome
factors such as a higher unemployment rate and lower average weekly hours, the
recent release of the NFP data has not significantly impacted the Dow
Jones. The labour market has shown resilience, albeit with some looseness,
potentially leading to lower inflation without causing severe damage to the
economy.

Additionally, the market
has not been affected by the underperformance of the ISM Services PMI. On the contrary, the sub-index
indicating lower prices paid has fuelled speculation that core inflation could
decrease without causing substantial harm.

The market viewed the
significant miss in Jobless Claims with caution, considering the
impact of seasonal adjustments, while also acknowledging the improvement seen
in Continuing Claims. Overall, the market chose to emphasize the positive
aspects of the data rather than dwell on the negatives.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones
has rallied strongly as soon as it broke out of the downward trendline. The
price stalled at the 33854 swing level resistance, but
picked up shortly after breaking above it and extended the rally towards the
key resistance zone at 34477. The price looks overstretched now as depicted by
the distance with the blue 8 moving average.
Generally, the price pulls back into the moving average to find a new
equilibrium before the next move.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a divergence with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. Given that we are near the key resistance zone, this divergence may
be significant. If we do get a pullback, the best support zone is at the 33854
level where we can find the confluence with the
50% Fibonacci retracement level
and the red 21 moving average.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the short-term price action with the strong support level at 33854
highlighted with the blue area. From a risk management perspective, this is the
best place where the buyers can re-enter the market with a defined risk just
below the zone and target the 34477 resistance first and a breakout afterwards.
The sellers, on the other hand, can lean only on the 34477 resistance or wait
for the price to break below the 33854 support to target the 33450 swing low
first and the 32684 support afterwards.

The Dow
Jones is in for a week filled with important events. It all begins with the highly
anticipated US CPI report scheduled for tomorrow. This report is expected to
play a crucial role in shaping the market’s expectations for the upcoming FOMC
rate decision, which is set to take place the following day. Furthermore, later
in the week, there will be another Jobless Claims report and the release of the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The previous release of this
survey had a significant impact on the market, primarily due to a substantial
increase in long-term inflation expectations.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.