The retail trading market, including day trading and swing trading, or even ‚long term buy and hold‘ of stocks, has traditionally been dominated by men. While the number of women participating in these activities has increased in recent years, a significant gender gap remains. This article will explore the reasons behind this disparity, discuss the difference in long-term stock investments, and suggest ways the trading community can attract more women.

Gender disparity in retail trading

There are several factors that contribute to the underrepresentation of women in retail trading:

1. Societal Stereotypes: Trading has historically been portrayed as a male-dominated field, with women often discouraged from pursuing careers or interests in finance. This stereotype can influence women’s decisions to explore trading opportunities.

2. Risk Aversion: Research suggests that women, on average, tend to be more risk-averse than men. This characteristic may make them less likely to engage in day trading and swing trading, which involve higher levels of risk compared to long-term investments.

3. Lack of Role Models: The scarcity of high-profile female traders can make it difficult for women to envision themselves succeeding in the trading world. Greater visibility of successful female traders could inspire more women to enter the field.

4. Financial Education Gap: Studies have shown that women generally report lower levels of financial literacy compared to men. This gap in knowledge may discourage women from participating in trading activities.

Long-Term Investments vs. Day Trading and Swing Trading:
There is evidence to suggest that women are more likely to engage in long-term stock investments compared to day trading and swing trading. Long-term investments typically involve lower risk levels, which may appeal to the more risk-averse nature of women. Additionally, long-term investing may align better with women’s financial goals, such as saving for retirement or children’s education.

Here’s what these 2 (female) investors and traders had to say about that

I reached out to two industry collegues of mine. They are females that will stay anonymous. Their inputs may shed some light as a micro focus group.

Question: What challenges have you faced as a woman in the retail trading market, and how did you overcome them?

• Answer by 1st respondent: One major challenge has been the limited number of women actively participating in the market. Often, women rely on the opinions of male colleagues, friends, or investment advisors. I overcame this by becoming more independent in my trading and research, not waiting for a „man“ to come and save me.

• Answer by 2nd respondent: Since starting in the capital market in 2014, my trading time has varied, especially after having children. It’s challenging to trade actively while working full-time, managing a household, maintaining relationships, and raising children. The pandemic provided more time for trading, but in general, juggling multiple responsibilities has been a significant factor.

Question: Can you share any advice for other women who are considering entering the world of retail trading?

• Answer by 1st respondent: I encourage women to learn about investments and trade independently. I took the initiative to open a learning cycle for 100 women aged 20-40 who want to invest on their own in an independent trading account. So, take advantage of educational opportunities and don’t be afraid to dive in.

• Answer by 2nd respondent: Personal life and career choices have undoubtedly impacted my trading journey. For example, having children may have affected my career progression, although I don’t have any regrets. The concessions women make in life to balance their responsibilities can influence their trading activities and other aspects of their lives.

Question: How do you think the trading community can better support and attract more women to the field?

• Answer by 1st respondent: The trading community needs to take the issue of gender representation seriously. While there is an upward trend among young female investors, we still need more women in investment houses, hedge funds, family offices, and banks – not just in back-office roles, but as active participants in the trading room. By promoting a more inclusive environment, we can attract and retain more women in the retail trading market.

• Answer by 2nd respondent: There isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution, but early encouragement can make a difference. If someone had told me in school that I could manage and develop in such a field, it might have helped. It’s essential to encourage young women to pursue challenging professions, such as engineering or high-tech, and provide support to help them succeed in balancing their personal and professional lives.

Attracting more women to the trading community

To encourage more women to participate in retail trading, the following steps can be taken:

1. Break Stereotypes: Promoting gender equality in the financial industry and challenging societal stereotypes will help create a more inclusive environment for women.

2. Financial Education: Providing accessible financial education resources targeted at women can help bridge the financial literacy gap and empower them to make informed trading decisions.

3. Mentorship and Networking: Establishing mentorship programs and networking opportunities for women in trading can provide them with the support and guidance they need to succeed.

4. Highlight Successful Female Traders: Showcasing the achievements of female traders can inspire more women to explore retail trading as a viable option for wealth building.

Although the retail trading market has been historically male-dominated, there is an opportunity to create a more inclusive environment that encourages women to participate in day trading, swing trading, and long-term stock investments. By addressing the factors that contribute to the gender gap, the trading community can benefit from the diverse perspectives and experiences that women bring to the table. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for more insights into the evolving world of retail trading.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

US regional banks will have a challenging start to the new week after struggling First Republic announced late on Friday that it was suspending dividend payments on preferred shares.

The company said it was „as a measure of prudent oversight“ but cutting the prefs is a desperation move. It was fear of Citigroup cutting its preferred the kicked off a round of the financial crisis and an eventual government bailout.

Shares of FRC closed Thursday at $14.03 from a high of $147.68 in February. The problem with that share price is that it’s still too high to fold the company into some other bank for next-to-nil but it’s also too low to inspire any kind of confidence.

Large banks injected $30 billion in deposits into First Republic last month in a rescue that seemed to work, at least for awhile.

This will make for an interesting start to the new week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Week Ahead April 10-14th

• MON: Easter Monday – US Markets Open, Japanese Trade Balance (Feb), EZ Sentix Index (Apr).
• TUE: IMF World Economic Outlook, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Chinese Inflation (Mar), Norwegian CPI (Mar), EZ Retail Sales (Mar).
• WED: FOMC Minutes, BoC Announcement, US CPI (Mar).
• THU: OPEC Oil Market Report, Australian Jobs Report (Mar), Chinese Trade Balance (Mar), UK GDP Est. (Feb), US PPI (Mar).
• FRI: EIA Oil Market Report, Swedish CPI (Mar), US Retail Sales (Mar), US University of Michigan Prelim. (Apr).

NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order

Chinese Inflation (Tue): Chinese CPI is expected to have picked back up in March, with the Y/Y expected to tick higher to 1.9% from 1.0%, while the M/M is forecast at 0.2% (prev. -0.5%) and the PPI is seen at -1.3% (prev. -1.4%). Using the Chinese Caixin PMI as a proxy, the Services release suggested the “Latest survey data indicated that cost pressures picked up at the end of the first quarter, with average input prices rising at a solid pace that was the quickest since August 2022. Increased staffing costs and raw materials prices were cited as key sources of inflation. Efforts to remain competitive limited firms’ abilities to pass on higher cost burdens to clients, however, as highlighted by a marginal rise in prices charged by service providers.” Following last month’s release, analysts cited by SCMP suggest “consumer inflation in China is expected to edge up over the coming months, in line with the nation’s economic recovery following its zero-Covid exit.”

BoK Policy Announcement (Tue): The Bank of Korea is expected to hold rates at 3.50%, with its decision likely to be underpinned by the falls in inflation, as well as growth worries following global banking issues, which drove some domestic fears about outbound capital flows, though some of these fears have recently eased. However, some recent activity data has pointed to resilient economic conditions. “While the policy statement is likely to reiterate that the BoK will maintain its tightening stance, keeping the policy rate on hold for a second consecutive meeting would further support our base scenario that the rate-hike cycle already ended in January,” SocGen writes. “We expect Yoon-Je Cho to vote for a 25bps hike again and that the board members’ views on terminal rates will be evenly split, with three on 3.75% and three on 3.50%,” it adds.

FOMC Minutes (Wed): At its March meeting, the FOMC lifted its rates by 25bps, in line with market expectations. Its updated economic projections left the terminal rate view unchanged at 5.1%, and its statement removed the reference to the Committee anticipating that ‘ongoing increases in the target rate will be appropriate’, though added that ‘some additional policy firming may be appropriate’. Its median view for where rates will be in 2024 was nudged up to 4.3% from 4.1%. The inflation profile was raised for this year, though it was unchanged for 2024 and 2025, while the core inflation view was slightly nudged up for this year and next. The Fed expressed confidence in the banking system, stating that it was ‘sound’ and ‘resilient’, adding that the recent developments were likely to result in tighter credit conditions and will weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. Some had expected that the Fed might slow its pace of balance sheet reduction, though the statement said that it would continue to reduce Treasury and MBS holdings in line with its previous announcements. Since then, Fed policymakers have appeared to keep their focus firmly on managing high inflation, with many noting further progress was needed to get price growth back to its target. And in his post-meeting Q&A, Chair Powell said that no participants had rate cuts in their base-line scenario for this year; traders have recently been betting that the Fed will need to pivot its policy towards more accommodative conditions given that some key economic data is beginning to show a slowing growth dynamic. Powell said he still sees a path to a soft landing, and the Fed was trying to find it. Elsewhere, Powell emphasised that the Fed’s policymaking is based on incoming data, meeting-by-meeting, and will be based on the actual and expected effects of the credit tightening. Powell said that if the Fed needed to push rates higher, it would, but for now, officials see the likelihood of credit tightening, and the impact of this can be seen as another hike.

BoC Policy Announcement (Wed): Analysts expect the BoC will hold rates at 4.50% after signalling a conditional pause at the March meeting. Recent inflation data saw headline CPI falling by more than the consensus was expecting, owing to lower energy inflation, while the BoC core measures also showed improvement. RBC’s analysts said that while inflation is still a concern, the positive trend is likely to keep the BoC on the sidelines. Later this year, money markets are implying some possibility of a rate cut, and traders will be looking for any commentary that validates that pricing, particularly as officials still want to see progress on the inflation front, and against policymaker’s statements that they remain prepared to resume rate hikes if it appears that inflation will not get back to 2% in 2024. The April meeting will be accompanied by fresh economic projections.

US CPI (Wed): At the time of writing, the consensus view expects headline inflation to remain unchanged at 6.0% Y/Y in March, while the core gauge is also seen little changed around 5.5% Y/Y. Within the release, traders will be eying the components from the services sector, which officials still see as a source of discomfort. Fed policymakers have recently looked through the woes in the banking sector, and have emphasised their commitments to bringing inflation under control, with many noting that there is still more work to be done given that inflation is still running significantly above target, despite the progress made thus far. Additionally, some have highlighted that recent moves by OPEC to tighten crude oil markets adds to the uncertainties in bringing down price pressures in the months ahead. While the data will help us shape expectations about what the Fed will do at the May 3rd FOMC meeting, analysts note that there are still further data points that will influence the central bank’s thinking before then.

Australian Jobs Report (Thu): Desks expect Australia to have added 20k Jobs in March (prev. +64.6k), while the Unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 3.6% from 3.5%. Analysts at Westpac cite the falls and gains in employment over the last three months to seasonal factors, but “looking through recent volatility however, an underlying softening trend is beginning to emerge”, the desk says, adding that employment growth has shown a clear slowdown. That being said, the analysts did note upside risks to their Employment forecast of +25k, above the market forecast, citing recent payroll data. The analysts also note that the February unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5% as, the lift in participation saw the labour force grow by 48.1k, lower than the gain in employment.

Chinese Trade Balance (Thu): There are currently no expectations for the March Trade Balance, which stood at a surplus of USD 116.88bln in the prior release, while exports and imports were -6.8% and -10.2% respectively. Following the prior month’s release, the Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank China suggested, “It’s highly likely that China will see a trade deficit in 2023, dragging down GDP growth and depressing profits and employment in the manufacturing sector.” Desks suggest that the surplus will narrow to 1.4% of GDP from 2.3% in 2022 amid global growth concerns.

UK GDP (Thu): Expectations are for UK GDP to expand 0.1% M/M in February vs the 0.3% increase in January. The prior report saw January GDP advance to +0.3% vs the 0.5% contraction in December, with the more favourable performance in the month data attributed to growth in education, transport and storage, human health activities, and arts, entertainment and recreation activities – all of which rebounded after falls in December 2022. This time around, Pantheon Macroeconomics expects that the upcoming release will show that “economic activity has continued to hold broadly steady,” adding that its forecast of “zero month-to-month growth would leave GDP on course to fall marginally on a quarter-on-quarter basis in Q1.” Beyond February, Pantheon notes that “a sustained upturn likely will not take hold until Q3, when prices should start to rise at a slower pace than wages.” From a policy perspective, pricing for the May 11th meeting has an unchanged rate implied at 37%, while a 25bps rate rise is implied with 63% probability. A soft report could see some traders dial in expectations of a move next month; however, consensus for the meeting will likely be more reliant on upcoming CPI and labour market data.

US Retail Sales (Fri): At the time of writing, headline retail sales are expected to slip 0.3% M/M in March, core retail sales are seen falling by 0.1% M/M, while the Control Group is seen falling by 0.3%. The data will be framed in the context of slowing economic growth dynamics, which is increasingly becoming a focal point for traders. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence in March improved slightly at the headline level, but the present situation measures decreased. The report noted that while consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase in the month. The data also contained a special question this month, asking about consumers’ spending plans on services over the next six months; the data showed consumers plan to spend less on highly discretionary categories, but they will spend more on less discretionary categories.

US Bank Earnings (Fri): The Q1 reporting season is set to get underway, with the major banks to report on Friday. In addition to the usual metrics we’ll be watching – top- and bottom-line performance, loan provisions, economic projections, etc – the street will be paying particular attention to any commentary on how the recent stresses in the banking system have impacted operations. Goldman Sachs says it expects investor focus to centre on deposit inflows and pricing dynamics, but also what will the offset be from tighter lending standards, a weaker economic backdrop and the impacts on provisions and charge-offs, as well as the longer-term ramifications from regulatory reform.

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 e-mini futures technical anaysis video and price forecast

In the above video, I will discuss the recent bullish outlook on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures based on technical analysis. The price forecast indicates a minimum target of 4170 for this week, with potential for further growth. Let’s delve deeper into the key points from the YouTube video analysis shared on ForexLive.com.

Bullish Technical Analysis and Price Forecast

The S&P 500 E-mini Futures have maintained a bullish trend, as evidenced by the following technical indicators:

• Channel Formation: A well-defined channel, marked in yellow on the chart, has formed with four touch points at the bottom band and two at the top. The channel provides a clear view of the current upward trend.

• Mid-Channel and 20 EMA Reclaimed: After a brief 2.5-day pullback, the S&P 500 E-mini Futures rebounded on Good Friday, rising by 0.23%. This recovery allowed the index to reclaim both the mid-channel (dotted line) and the 20 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart.

• Bullish Premise: As long as the recent low of 4096.5 holds, I do not foresee the index falling below 4120, let alone reaching 4100. The bullish trend is expected to continue.

Key Price Targets

The minimum target for this week is 4170, near the recent high of 4171.75 recorded on April 4th. However, I also mentioned other potential targets:

• 4180: A possible short-term target.
• 4200: A psychologically significant round number that may act as a magnet for traders and algorithms.
• 4260: A higher blue line target for the future.

Conclusion

The technical analysis indicates a bullish price forecast for the S&P 500 E-mini Futures, with a minimum target of 4170 for this week. As long as the recent low of 4096.5 is maintained, the uptrend is likely to persist. Traders should monitor these key levels and trade S&P 500 E-mini Futures at their own risk. For additional insights, stay tuned to ForexLive.com.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Interesting stocks reporting quarterly earnings in April 2023

As quarterly earnings season kicks off in April, several well-known companies have seen their stock prices nearing 50-day lows, potentially signaling a buying opportunity for investors. This article highlights notable stocks across various sectors and countries, along with their earnings release dates. You are invited to continue doing your own research on this interesting list of stocks.

Stocks poised for bounce?

1. Healthcare Giants Bouncing Back. Several healthcare companies have experienced declines in their stock prices but are now showing signs of recovery. Keep an eye on:

• Novartis AG (NVS): 20.36% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 25th.
• Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): 19.11% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 27th.
• AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): 15.72% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 27th.
• UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): 12.07% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 14th.
• Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): 10.40% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 27th.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 10.02% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 18th.

2. Defensive Consumer Plays Showing Strength.
   Consumer defensive stocks have shown resilience in recent weeks, presenting potential opportunities for investors:

• The Procter & Gamble Company (PG): 12.07% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 21st.
• PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): 10.36% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 25th.
• The Coca-Cola Company (KO): 7.66% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 24th.

3. Consumer Cyclical and Energy Picks.
   Prominent names in the consumer cyclical and energy sectors have also demonstrated potential:

• McDonald’s Corporation (MCD): 8.72% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 25th.
• Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): 17.37% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 28th.

4. Financial Sector: Banks Ready for a Rebound?
   Two major US banks are also experiencing upward momentum ahead of their earnings release:

• Bank of America Corporation (BAC): 5.78% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 18th.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): 3.54% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 14th.

5. Technology: European Innovator on the Rise?

• ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): 11.40% above its 50-day low, reporting earnings on April 19th.

As these companies report their quarterly earnings in April, investors should keep a close eye on their performance and consider the potential upside in their stock prices. Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, these stocks‘ proximity to their 50-day lows may indicate potential for growth in the coming weeks.

Invest in stocks at your own risk and do your own research as some of the above may be ready for a rally upon their upcoming earnings. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s quiet on trading floors around the world with Europe closed and the Americas on holiday.

Have a look at the economic calendar to see what’s in store next week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It seems not long ago the earnings season ended, but it’s back again with the latest earnings rotation starting next Friday when JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citibank and PNC announce their earnings. The financials traditionally start the season and with the recent banking concerns, the market will be interested in how the top tier banks view the landscape, along with one of the top regional banks (in PNC).

This week, JPMorgans Dimon was in the headlines saying that the banking crisis raised the odds of a recession, and that the crisis is not over yet. He also added:

• Banking system is strong and sound
• We are seeing people reduce lending a little bit, cut back a little bit, and pull back a little bit

Looking ahead to the week starting April 17 (subject to change):

Monday April 17

• State Street Bank

Tuesday, April 18

• Goldman Sachs
• BNY Mellon
• Bank of America

Wednesday, April 19

• Morgan Stanley
• bancorp
• Zions Bancorporation
• Citizens

Thursday, April 20

• Huntington
• Comerica
• KeyBank
• Truist

The small regional banks will likely be more of interest to the markets.

Looking to the week of April 24 (again subject to change), that week will be filled with earnings from the big cap tech companies (amongst others):

Monday, April 24

• Coca-Cola
• Kimberly-Clark

Tuesday, April 25

• Alphabet
• PepsiCo
• Verizon
• UPS
• Raytheon
• Lockheed Martin
• GE
• 3M
• GM
• Chipotle
• Dow
• Snap
• Whirlpool

Wednesday, April 26

• Meta Platforms
• Visa
• AT&T
• Qualcomm
• Boeing
• ServiceNow
• General Dynamics
• Hilton Worldwide

Thursday, April 27

• Apple
• Microsoft
• Amazon
• Merck
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Intel
• Caterpillar

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a holiday-shortened day today and the reaction to non-farm payrolls was that good news is good news. S&P 500 futures closed early for the Good Friday holiday and finished up 9.5 points to 4141.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The details of the US jobs report were strong but the dollar has been unable to hold onto gains. Jobs were strong in the household survey but the establishment survey was pushed up by strong government hiring or would have missed estimates.

The numbers all landed in a holiday-thinned market and and that could be a factor as well.

In any case, the US dollar rallied broadly on the headline but has now given most of it back.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is a touch higher across the board ahead of non-farm payrolls in what’s been uninspired European and Asian trading. It’s a holiday in much of the world today so that means skeleton staffs on FX desks. The bond market is closed but US bond and equity futures are trading until 9:15 am ET.

Overall, it will be a strange one but if there’s a particularly strong or weak report, I don’t think it’s a gamechanger. The larger risks are to the downside after some softer jobs data this week. Lower non-farm payrolls would get the market thinking that a hard landing is coming and that the Fed can head to the sidelines.

The next big release is March CPI on April 12.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.