• Equities keep more tentative so far in the new day
• Eurozone August industrial production +1.8% vs +1.7% m/m expected
• Germany October ZEW survey current conditions -86.9 vs -84.5 expected
• USD/JPY wrestles with near-term support after nearing 150.00 yesterday
• IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth forecast amid China drag
• China economy set to miss growth target in 2024 – poll
• Chinese stocks continue down the bumpy stretch of road in the new week
• European equities mostly a touch higher to start the day
• Spain September final CPI +1.5% vs +1.5% y/y prelim
• France September final CPI +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y prelim
• What are the main events for today?
• Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading
• UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.0% vs 4.1% expected
• Germany September wholesale price index -0.3% vs -0.8% m/m prior
• FX option expiries for 15 October 10am New York cut
• UK labour market report on the agenda in the session ahead
• BOJ seen keeping interest rates unchanged through year-end – poll
• China banks reportedly set to trim rates on ¥300 trillion of deposits as soon as this week
• Dollar keeps steadier as the week looks to pick up
• Japan PM says aims to for a supplementary budget higher than last years amount

The main event in the European session today was the release of the UK labour market report. The data beat expectations and after some tentative price action, led to a rally in the pound.

We also got the German ZEW which came out on the softer side but the expectations index improved. That didn’t help the euro though as it continues to trade tentatively into the ECB decision on Thursday.

In the markets, the most notable mover has been crude oil as it extended the fall triggered by late yesterday’s news of Israel limiting the counterstrike to military targets.

In FX, we continue to see tight ranges although the bullish momentum in the US Dollar looks to be exhausted as the market might need more to price in a more „hawkish“ path for interest rates than the current Fed’s projections.

In the equity space, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are consolidating around yesterday’s highs. We haven’t got any bearish catalyst in the meantime, so the current uptrend will likely remain intact.

In the American session, the main event will be the release of the Canadian CPI. The market
is pricing in a 48% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. Soft data will likely seal the 50 bps cut,
while higher than expected figures might trigger a relief rally in the CAD.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now
priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in
line with the Fed’s projections.

Therefore, we will likely
need more strong US data to see the market pricing in an earlier pause in the
Fed’s easing cycle and give the US Dollar a further boost.

In the bigger picture, it
looks like the US long term yields are bound to rise further, which should keep
the recent uptrend in the USD intact, but more bullish catalysts for the
greenback would give more conviction for the buyers.

The next big risk events
will be in November when we get the October data and the US election.

On the NZD side, the RBNZ recently
cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected. The market
is pricing an 88% probability of another back-to-back 50 bps cut in November.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is consolidating around the key 0.6050 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into
the 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5850 support next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action as the bearish momentum waned. We have
the 0.61 handle acting as resistance here so a break above it will likely see
the buyers increase the bullish momentum into the 0.6217 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much more we can glean from this timeframe as the market participants will
likely keep on playing the range until we get a breakout. Watch out for the New
Zealand CPI later in the day. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of key economic
releases. Today, we get the New Zealand Q3 CPI report. On Thursday, we have the
US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning despite the recent higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. One caveat is that the market has now
priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in
line with the Fed’s projections.

Therefore, we will likely
need more strong US data to see the market pricing in an earlier pause in the
Fed’s easing cycle and give the US Dollar a further boost.

In the bigger picture, it
looks like the US long term yields are bound to rise further, which should keep
the recent uptrend in the USD intact, but more bullish catalysts for the
greenback would give more conviction for the buyers.

The next big risk events
will be in November when we get the October data and the US election.

On the CAD side, the market
is pricing in a 48% probability of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting. Today,
we get the Canadian CPI report where soft data will likely seal the 50 bps cut,
while higher than expected figures might trigger a relief rally in the CAD.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD is now trading above the key resistance around the 1.3785 level. The
sellers will want to see the price falling back below the level to position for
a drop into the 1.36 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely keep
on piling in around these levels to position for further upside into the 1.3860
level.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a huge rally the lows with basically no pullback. We have a
steep upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for further
upside, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in
for a drop into the 1.36 support.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action and the steep trendline. There’s not
much else to see here as the buyers will keep on leaning on the trendline,
while the sellers will look for a break. Watch out for today’s Canadian CPI as higher
than expected data might trigger a relief rally in the CAD. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of key economic
releases. Today, we get the Canadian CPI report. On Thursday, we have the US
Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s a snapshot of things at the moment:

• S&P 500 futures flat
• Nasdaq futures -0.1%
• Dow futures +0.2%
• Eurostoxx -0.4%
• Germany DAX +0.2%
• France CAC 40 -0.7%
• UK FTSE -0.4%

In Europe, the overall mood is more mixed with only the DAX looking to push up. The German index briefly touched record highs earlier as investors eye another ECB rate cut later in the week.

As for US futures, things should only start moving when we get to North America trading later. There won’t be any major events on the economic calendar but do watch out for Fed speak. Let’s see if there will be appetite to keep the run higher going as the outlook for the US economy hones in on a soft landing scenario.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Heads up: It is a partial market holiday in the US
• Weekly update on interest rate expectations
• Chinese equities look to hold on to hope for now at least
• Switzerland September producer and import prices -0.1% vs +0.2% m/m prior
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 11 October CHF 467.1 bn vs CHF 471.4 bn prior
• China records ¥582.62 billion trade surplus in September
• China September M2 money supply +6.8% vs +6.4% y/y expected
• OPEC slashes global oil demand growth forecast for third month in a row

Markets:

• USD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• Gold down 0.1% to $2,654.73
• WTI crude down 2.4% to $73.74
• Bitcoin up 3.2% to $64,867

It was a quiet session as markets are marred by holidays in major markets. In Asia, Japan was out and looking to the session ahead, the US – partially – and Canada will be too.

That kept trading sentiment in a bit of a bind but in the last hour or so, we are seeing the dollar catch a light bid.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0915 with USD/JPY up 0.4% to 149.70 on the day. The latter is trading to its highest levels since the start of August, as the dollar continues to keep on steadier footing since the start of the month.

The Swiss franc is the laggard on the day, with USD/CHF up 0.6% to 0.8625 and EUR/CHF up 0.4% to 0.9415. Is the SNB at work amid quiet markets?

Meanwhile, the antipodeans are also lagging slightly as the Chinese yuan is punished after a lack of stimulus details from a much anticipated press conference in China. AUD/USD is down 0.5% to 0.6715, keeping near the lows for the day currently.

In the equities space, European indices are a little higher with US futures also up slightly ahead of holiday thin trading in Wall Street later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.93 mil bpd (previously 2.03 mil bpd)
• 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.64 mil bpd (previously 1.74 mil bpd)

The main reason for the lower revision was China, with OPEC now anticipating demand growth there of 580k bpd – down from 650k bpd in the previous report. Then again, one must remember that OPEC’s forecasts has been arguably the most bullish compared with other forecasters. So, the downgrades here are mainly catching up to the consensus outlook of the market.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

For investors looking to capitalize on long-term opportunities, dip-buying strategies offer a compelling approach. This article presents a structured plan to purchase Boeing (BA) stock using The Levitan Method, a dip-buying strategy designed to accumulate shares at increasingly attractive prices as the stock declines, while maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

Step-by-Step Buy Orders

This plan is based on dollar-cost averaging, and buying at key levels relating to the previous volume profiles. At your own risk, you buy more shares as the price declines, thereby lowering the overall cost basis. Naturally, there is also a hard stop to ensure a known and limited risk on the down side. Below are the proposed buy orders:

1. First Buy Order:
   • Price: $141.55
   • Number of Shares: 100
   • Cost: $14,155
   • Percentage of Total Position: 16.67%
2. Second Buy Order:
   • Price: $131.55
   • Number of Shares: 200
   • Cost: $26,310
   • Percentage of Total Position: 33.33%
3. Third Buy Order:
   • Price: $117.55
   • Number of Shares: 300
   • Cost: $35,265
   • Percentage of Total Position: 50%

Once all three orders are filled, the investor will have accumulated 600 shares at a weighted average entry price of $126.22. The total cost for this position would be $75,730.

Risk and Reward Metrics

An essential aspect of any trade is managing risk. In this plan, the stop loss is set at $113.60, meaning that if the stock price falls to this level, the position would be sold, resulting in a loss of $12.62 per share. For the full position of 600 shares, this would amount to a total loss of $7,573.

On the upside, the take profit target is set at $194.37, offering a potential gain of $68.16 per share. If the stock price reaches this level, the total profit for the 600-share position would be $48,467.

With a reward-to-risk ratio of 5.40, this trade plan offers an attractive balance, making the potential reward over five times higher than the risk.

Current Market Context for Boeing (BA)

As of October 14, 2024, Boeing’s premarket price stands at $148.39, which is approximately 66% below its all-time high (ATH). The first buy order in this trade plan is set at $141.55, which represents a price 67.5% below the ATH. This strategy aims to take advantage of potential dips, allowing the investor to accumulate shares at more favorable prices as the market fluctuates.

Flexibility in Execution

One of the strengths of this trade plan is its flexibility. While the plan outlines a purchase of 600 shares, it can easily be adjusted to suit smaller portfolios or different risk appetites. For instance, instead of buying 100, 200, and 300 shares, an investor could choose to buy 10, 20, and 30 shares, maintaining the same prices and proportions. This would still result in the same weighted average entry price of $126.22, but for a smaller total investment.

Final Considerations

This dip-buying strategy offers a methodical approach to accumulate shares of Boeing stock while managing risk. However, it’s important to remember that all investments carry risk, and this trade plan is based on an opinion, not financial advice. As always, investors should do their own research and consult additional sources before executing any trades.

For further insights and opinions on the market, visit ForexLive.com

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

The Nasdaq rallied to the
recent highs last Friday despite the higher-than-expected US CPI and PPI reports. The Fed targets the PCE though and
the Core PCE Y/Y is now expected to tick lower to 2.6%.

The market has now priced
out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost perfectly in line
with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will continue to see rate cuts into a
resilient economy, which is a bullish driver for the stock market.

Also, as a reminder, the
Fed’s reaction function has changed, so stronger data will just potentially
cause a pause in the easing cycle at most. They are not even thinking about
tightening anymore. The next big risk event for the market will be the US election
in November.

Nasdaq
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the Nasdaq is now back to the recent highs around the 2530 level. This
is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
high to position for a drop back into the 19818 level. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets
into the all-time high.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with higher lows pushing into the
20530 level. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe as the sellers
will look for a rejection from the high, while the buyers will want to see a
break to push into new highs.

Nasdaq Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the market has been consolidating between the 2500 resistance
and the 2330 support. The buyers will look for an upside breakout to push into
new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to
target a drop into the 19800 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

This week is pretty empty on the data front with just a couple of key economic
releases. Today, we have Fed’s Waller speaking, while on Thursday, we get the
US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a quiet start to the new week so far and understandably so. In Asia, Japanese markets were closed and we are also due a partial market holiday in the US later as well as a full holiday in Canada. That pretty much makes it a long weekend of sorts in markets. So far today, major currencies are not doing too much with the dollar keeping steadier mostly.

In that lieu, let’s take a look at what is on the agenda in the week ahead. That will at least provide some idea of the key risk events to watch out for.

Tuesday, 15 October- UK September labour market report **- Germany October ZEW survey economic sentiment- Canada September CPI figures **- BofA, Goldman Sachs Q3 earnings

Wednesday, 16 October- New Zealand Q3 CPI figures **- UK September CPI figures ***- Morgan Stanley Q3 earnings

Thursday, 17 October- Australia September labour market report **- Eurozone September final CPI figures- ECB announces October monetary policy decision ***- US weekly initial jobless claims **- US September retail sales data ***- Netflix Q3 earnings

Friday, 18 October- Japan September national inflation report- China September retail sales, industrial production *- China Q3 GDP figures *- UK September retail sales data *

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Monday: US and Canada Holiday, Fed’s Waller. (US stock
  market open/bond market closed)
• Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, German ZEW, Canada CPI,
  New Zealand Q3 CPI.
• Wednesday: UK CPI.
• Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, ECB Policy
  Decision, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial Production and
  Capacity Utilization, US NAHB Housing Market Index.
• Friday: Japan CPI, China Industrial Production and
  Retail Sales, UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts and Building Permits.

Monday

Christopher Waller
is a key Fed governor because he’s been a “leading indicator” for changes in
Fed’s policy. He recently mentioned that they could go faster on rate cuts if
the labour market data worsened, or if the inflation data continued to come in
softer than everybody expected.

He also added that
a fresh pickup in inflation could also cause the Fed to pause its cutting. The
market is now almost perfectly in line with the Fed’s latest projections, so if
he brushes aside the recent inflation data, that will likely boost the risk
sentiment.

Tuesday

The UK Labour
Market report is expected to show 250K jobs added in the three months to August
vs. 265K to July, and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. The
Average Weekly Earning including Bonus is expected at 3.8% vs. 4.0% prior,
while the ex-Bonus figure is seen at 4.9% vs. 5.1% prior.

The market is
pricing 36 bps of easing by year-end with an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut in
November. BoE’s Governor Bailey recently caused a selloff in the GBP when he
mentioned that the central bank could become more aggressive on rate cuts,
while BoE’s Chief Economist Pill cautioned against the risk of cutting rates
either too far or too fast.

We will likely
need an awful report to get the market to fully price in a back-to-back cut in
December, but it’s unlikely that we will see a 50 bps cut being priced for
November unless the CPI data shows a big downside surprise as well.

The Canadian CPI
Y/Y is expected at 1.8% vs. 2.0% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at -0.2%
vs. -0.2% prior. The underlying inflation measures are more important for the
BoC, so that’s what the market will be focused on. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.5% vs. 2.4% prior, while the Median CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.3% vs.
2.3% prior.

The last soft Canadian CPI raised the probabilities for a 50 bps cut at the
upcoming meeting as BoC’s Macklem hinted to a possibility of delivering larger
cuts in case growth and inflation were to weaken more than expected.

The market scaled
back those probabilities following the surprisingly good Canadian Retail
Sales, the GDP report and the US NFP report. The expectations for a 50 bps
cut picked up again though and the probability was standing around 52% right
before the Canadian Labour Market report on Friday.

Those probabilities dropped to 36% following
a strong report but got back around 50% after the weak BoC Business Outlook Survey. The market is
clearly pushing for that 50 bps cut at any sign of weakness. Therefore, we can
expect the market to increase the chances of a 50 bps cut in case we get a soft
CPI report.

The New Zealand Q3
CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs. 3.3% prior, while the Q/Q figure is seen at
0.7% vs. 0.4% prior.

The core inflation
rate in New Zealand fell inside the 1-3% target band in the last report, and
given the unemployment rate at the highest level since 2021 and high frequency
indicators continuing to show weakness, the RBNZ cut by 50 bps at the last meeting.

The market expects
another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting in November and a total of 152 bps
of easing by the end of 2025.

Wednesday

The UK CPI Y/Y is
expected at 1.9% vs. 2.2% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3%
prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs. 3.6% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4% prior.

A hot report won’t
change much in terms of market pricing as just one cut is fully priced in by
the end of the year anyway. A soft report though will likely see the market
looking for another 25 bps cut in December, and a very soft one for a 50 bps
cut in November.

Thursday

The Australian
Labour Market report is expected to show 25K jobs added in September vs. 47.5K
in August and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%. The report is
unlikely to change anything for the RBA which continues to maintain its hawkish
stance.

The ECB is
expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps and bring the policy rate to 3.25%.
The central bank wasn’t looking for a back-to-back cut in October but following
the bleak PMIs at the end of September, the market rushed to price in such a
move which was then solidified following the benign Eurozone CPI and dovish
comments from ECB members. The market expects the ECB to deliver another
25 bps cut in December and four more in 2025.

The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.

Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
after rising sustainably during the summer improved considerably lately.

Last week though,
the data surprised to the upside with both Initial and Continuing Claims
spiking to the cycle highs. The spike was attributed to distortions from
Hurricane Helene and the Boeing strike.

This week Initial
Claims are expected at 255K vs. 258K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at
1870K vs. 1861K prior.

The US Retail
Sales M/M are expected at 0.3% vs. 0.1% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure
is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.1% prior. The focus will be on the Control Group figure
which is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.3% prior.

Consumer spending
has been stable which is something you would expect given the positive real
wage growth and resilient labour market. Retail sales data is generally a
market moving release but it’s volatile and most of the time the initial moves
are faded.

The Y/Y figure
smooths the noise but in recent recessions, retail sales haven’t been a leading
indicator, on the contrary, retail sales showed weakness when the recessions
were well underway. Therefore, the data shouldn’t influence the market’s
pricing much.

Friday

The Japanese Core
CPI Y/Y is expected to drop to 2.3% vs. 2.8% prior. The Tokyo CPI is seen as a
leading indicator for National CPI, so it’s generally more important for the
market than the National figure.

We had a dovish
turn from Governor Ueda in September caused by the appreciation of the JPY and
the Fed’s 50 bps cut. More recently, there’s been a more neutral language
coming from some BoJ officials and PM Ishiba, but the data doesn’t really point
to a near term hike though.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.