<p class=“MsoNormal“>UPCOMING
EVENTS:</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Tuesday:
US CPI</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Last week we
saw some messy and ranging price action in the major currency pairs. The USD
gained in the beginning of the week, only to give it back at the end of it. The
major events were the US ISM Services PMI and some FedSpeak. The former
surprised with an overall good-looking report and the prices paid component
didn’t help much as it remained high, while the latter pretty much sealed a 75
bps hike coming at the September meeting with more Fed members leaning for the
bigger move. In fact, the market now sees a 91% probability for a 75 bps hike. The
FOMC is in blackout period since last Saturday.</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The only
thing that can change this expectation is the US CPI report coming this week on
Tuesday. Nothing else will matter. The CPI M/M figure is expected to show a
negative reading at -0.1%, which would be the first M/M decline in two years
thanks to cooling energy prices. The Core M/M though is expected to show a 0.4%
increase. The CPI Y/Y is expected to show a deceleration to 8.1% and the Core
reading to remain unchanged at 5.9%. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Needless to say,
that a beat on expectations should result in risk aversion in the market with
the USD bid as the Fed may be even less inclined to pause early its tightening
cycle due to the fear of being wrong. A miss on expectations should see a risk
rally and USD under pressure as the market may bring forward expectations of an
earlier than expected pause and subsequent cutting cycle. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>A CPI miss
should also reprice the market expectations for a 75 bps hike at the September
meeting and bring it to a 50/50 split or even a higher probability of a 50 bps.
This will make the September FOMC rate decision very interesting because if
they follow yet again market consensus, financial conditions may ease again and
probably even faster than they would like, but if they want to show once and
for all that they are not “joking”, they may hike by an out of consensus 75 bps
and trigger a sell-off in risk. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This article
was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta.</p>

This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

<p>ETHEREUM TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and TRADE IDEA for 11 Sept, 2022</p><ul><li>This piece presents a technical analysis of the 11th of September’s trading of ethereum against the US dollar</li><li>We have a channel that is also a bull flag on the daily time frame. The video’s green arrows point to the lower frequency band, while the red arrows indicate the higher frequency band</li><li>Cryptocurrencies have followed the stock market’s upward trend and are showing signs of recovery. Even if only temporary, it’s still valuable enough to trade</li><li>Since we are no longer in the early stages of the recent rally, coming up with a viable trade idea has proven to be quite challenging. But, I’m still going to give you one. The goal is to get filled at a lower price and then make a Long trade with a leverage of 2:1</li><li>Many automated trading systems and human traders set stop losses near the daily 20 EMA. Institutions want to stop out Longs there, and we will try to fill our order there</li><li>The entry price is $1636.42. With a stop loss set at $1457 and a take profit target of $1995, this trade has a risk-to-reward ratio of 2-to-1</li><li>Bitcoin traders can also follow this technical analysis and find a similar trade, especially when ETH is leading the market, currently</li><li>Ethereum trading is a high-risk endeavor, so do your own research. Have a great week, and please visit ForexLive.com <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis“>technical analysis</a> for more insightful analysis</li></ul>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at forexlive.com.

<p>In this report, I look at some of the fundamental stories that are shaping the markets, and then look at the technical which have seen the start of a move lower in the USD. Can that shift continue this week?

Fundamental review:</p><ul><li><a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string text-align-start“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=0s“ dir=“auto“>0:00</a> to <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=420s“ dir=“auto“>7:00</a></li></ul><p>Technical analysis by currency pair starting times on the video:</p><ul><li>EURUSD <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=430s“ dir=“auto“>7:10</a></li><li>USDJPY: <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=739s“ dir=“auto“>12:19</a></li><li>GBPUSD <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=910s“ dir=“auto“>15:10</a></li><li>USDCHF <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=1051s“ dir=“auto“>17:31</a></li><li>USDCAD <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=1215s“ dir=“auto“>20:15</a></li><li> AUDUSD <a class=“yt-simple-endpoint style-scope yt-formatted-string“ spellcheck=“false“ target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfHXn_WARyU&t=1332s“ dir=“auto“>22:12</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-august-employment-397k-vs-150k-expected-20220909/“>Canada August employment -39.7K vs +15.0K expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-waller-says-he-supports-another-signficant-hike-this-month-20220909/“>Fed’s Waller says he supports ‚another signficant hike‘ this month</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-george-says-she-prefers-steadiness-and-purposefulness-of-rate-hikes-over-speed-20220909/“>Fed’s George says she prefers steadiness and purposefulness of rate hikes over speed</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-fed-wallers-we-do-not-want-inflation-expectations-to-get-on-anchored-20220909/“>More from Waller/George: We do not want inflation expectations to get unanchored</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecb-likelier-to-hike-by-50-bps-than-75-in-october-sources-report-20220909/“>ECB likelier to hike by 50 bps than 75 in October – sources report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bofa-now-sees-75-bps-fed-cut-expects-headlines-cpi-to-fall-in-august-20220909/“>BofA now sees 75 bps Fed hike, expects headlines CPI to fall in August</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-591-vs-596-last-week-20220909/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count 591 vs. 596 last week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/atlanta-fed-gdpnow-estimate-falls-to-13-from-14-on-september-7-20220909/“>Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate falls to 1.3% from 1.4% on September 7</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-wholesale-sales-for-july-14-vs-14-estimate-20220909/“>US wholesale sales for July -1.4% vs. 1.4% estimate</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/video-why-this-could-be-the-bottom-in-europe-20220909/“>Video: Why this could be the bottom in Europe</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-capacity-utilization-for-q2-838-vs-820-last-quarter-20220909/“>Canada capacity utilization for Q2 83.8% vs. 82.0% last quarter</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/heads-up-boe-postpones-september-policy-meeting-by-one-week-20220909/“>Heads up: BOE postpones September policy meeting by one week</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 up 61 points, or 1.5%, to 4067</li><li>US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 3.31%</li><li>WTI crude oil up $2.78 to $86.32</li><li>Gold up $8 to $1715</li><li>AUD leads, USD lags</li></ul><p>The economic highlight was the Canadian jobs report and for the second month, it stumbled. That may begin to give the Bank of Canada pause on its aggressive hiking path but it didn’t hurt the loonie too badly as oil gained and the US dollar stumbled broadly. USD/CAD rose to 1.3050 from 1.3000 on the report but finished halfway in between.</p><p>The peak of today’s USD weakness came late in Asia but there was a modest turn from there as USD/JPY rebounded from a low of 141.51 to 142.69. There are many people talking about a dollar top and with Europe trying to solve the energy crisis, there’s some scope there. But USD/JPY remains the main event this year and aside from some jawboning, the BOJ hasn’t budged.</p><p>In FX, US trading was choppy and generally sideways but that wasn’t the case in equities as the Nasdaq led a rally. That led to the first gain in five weeks and it was a hefty one at 4.1%.</p><p>Eyes are on next week’s CPI and the possibilty of a negative headline. The Fed has essentially pushed it aside as a decided for the Sept 21 FOMC but a low reading could tee up a less-hawkish statement. What market participants are wondering about are the balance between headline and core in CPI. There’s ample reason to expect a headline rollover in the near term but that’s not so clear with core, which is forecast to rise 0.3% next week. How much is that going to have to slow to halt the Fed’s advance?</p><p>The bond market continues to signal a higher Fed top and Waller endorsed that today by talking about 4% as his baseline. Fed funds have edged toward there for the March meeting (implied 4.01%) while the 2-year yield hit a new cycle high a 3.56% on Friday.</p><p>Have a great weekend.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>It will be a close call but the Nasdaq is threatening to trace out an outside week on the weekly chart. We tracked lower on Tuesday in the appreviated week as part of a seven-day losing streak but we’ve had three strong days of gains since. That’s nearly traced an outside week. To complete it, the Nasdaq would need to close above last week’s high of 12,124.</p><p>The last outside wee we saw in the Nasdaq was in March and that was followed by two more weeks of gains. Ultimately, as inflation jumped and the Fed took a more-hawkish stance, those gains evaporated.</p><p>This time, a rally could be further fueled by a soft CPI report on Tuesday and a less-hawkish Fed on September 21. That’s certainly not my base case but even small shifts at the margins could move the market.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>WTI crude oil settled up $3.25 today to $86.79 on the day. That’s higher than last week’s close at $85.98 and represents an impressive turnaround from $81.20 at yesterday’s low.</p><p>The market is struggling to price in tight global supplies against worries of falling future demand.</p><p>There are also uncertainties about how much natural gas-to-oil swtiching we will see this winter in Europe and Asia. One bullish signal today came from German economy minister Habeck who <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/berlinerzeitung/status/1567934378331836416″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>said </a>he wants to put diesel-fired power plant ships off the coast to replace nuclear plants that are shutting down.</p><p>That will add to demand for diesel, where US inventories are already tight according to <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1568285479610499074″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>John Kemp</a>.</p><p>Mix in uncertainty about the SPR, the Russian price cap/ban, the Iran deal and the economy and it’s a volatile trade. The big doji start on this week’s chart indicates that more wild moves are coming.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p id=“P3BBE52BD“ class=“fronthighlights-head-p“>The market is now pricing in a 91% chance of a 75 basis points Fed hike on September 21. The final push came today after Fed Governor Waller <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-waller-says-he-supports-another-signficant-hike-this-month-20220909/“ target=“_blank“>said </a>the meeting was fairly straightforward and that he expected another big hike.</p><p id=“P3BBE52BD“ class=“fronthighlights-head-p“>Economists will continue to coalesce around 75 basis points now and that continued with Bank of America economists shifting their forecast to 75 bps from 50. They cited comments from Powell yesterday where he made no effort to push back on market expectations for 75 bps.</p><p id=“P3BBE52BD“ class=“fronthighlights-head-p“>Perhaps more importantly, Bank of America took its terminal top to 4.00-4.25% from 3.75-4.00%.</p><p id=“P3BBE52BD“ class=“fronthighlights-head-p“>“We think that more cumulative tightening is needed to restore balance in labor markets,“ they wrote. „We also believe the Fed wants to get to its restrictive policy stance sooner than later.“</p><p id=“P3BBE52BD“ class=“fronthighlights-head-p“>In a separate note, Bank of America Global Research also discusses its expectations for next week’s (Tues) US CPI print for the month of August.</p><p id=“P0F78FD9F“ class=“fronthighlights-text-p“>“In the August CPI report, we look for headline CPI to decline by 0.1% mom, its first decline since May 2020, and for core CPI to advance by 0.3% mom. This would leave headline and core CPI up 8.2% and 6.0% yoy, respectively,“ BofA notes. </p><p id=“P2FA671E3″ class=“fronthighlights-text-p“>“We look for the retracement in energy prices to continue in August as we forecast a 5.2% mom decline following the 4.6% drop in July. Meanwhile, food price appreciation should only ease modestly to 0.9% mom from 1.1% previously. Elevated wages should continue to put upward pressure on food away from home inflation, and though commodity prices have declined recently, this will take time to pass through to consumer prices,“ BofA adds. </p><p id=“P2FA671E3″ class=“fronthighlights-text-p“>For bank trade ideas, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD“ rel=“nofollow“ target=“_blank“ data-saferedirecturl=“https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&source=gmail&ust=1662834220914000&usg=AOvVaw0IBG76FJtqqXmrtul82-mQ“>check out eFX Plus</a>. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD“ rel=“nofollow“ target=“_blank“ data-saferedirecturl=“https://www.google.com/url?q=https://plus.efxdata.com/ad/track/4655172E54F06040571CD0AB083845AD&source=gmail&ust=1662834220914000&usg=AOvVaw0IBG76FJtqqXmrtul82-mQ“>Get it here</a>. </p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>One of the best trades of this decade will be copper or copper miners with deep inventories. It’s well understood, right down to the government level, that we’re going to need a lot of copper in the green transition and that existing mines aren’t enough. At the same time, investors are unwilling to fund new mine construction because spot copper prices aren’t great and because of inflationary cost increases in mine construction everywhere.</p><p>I’m tempted to think that’s a story that’s so well understood that there’s no money to be made — I’ve <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-case-for-copper-20220531/“ target=“_blank“>written about it</a> many times — but if you look at how copper miners trade, that’s not the case at all.</p><p>The general consensus is that the big shortage will emerge in 2024 or 2025 as the green transition ramps up and China rebounds but at some point there will be stockpiling ahead of that.</p><p>Is that what’s happening now? Bloomberg <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.scrapmonster.com/news/the-copper-market-is-flashing-signs-of-tight-supply/1/84891″ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>noted </a>that yesterday’s 2.4% rally in copper was the most in give weeks and that front month copper in London is trading with a $145/ton premium over the third month. That kind of backwardation is usually a sign of a tight physical market.</p><p>Even with the slowdown in China, imports there are up 8.1% ytd through August. At the same time, Chilean copper exports are down ytd.</p><p>ZeroHedge today also <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/energy-transition-could-be-derailed-looming-copper-shortage“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>writes </a>about the looming copper shortage and cites an S&P Platts report that warns the green transition could be derailed by the unavailability of copper.</p><p>Again, this is all well known to anyone who is paying attention. It all really comes down to the question of when to buy copper. It’s certainly cheap now but it’s fallen because of economic worries. However note that copper prices have held up better than many risk assets lately. The weekly chart here also shows that it found support at the 61.8% retracement of the 2020-2022 rally.</p><p>I think this is a tough trade right now because it could be dead money for a couple years but at some point between now and 2025, it’s going to be a sensational trade.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-course-corrects-towards-the-end-of-the-week-20220909/“>Dollar course corrects towards the end of the week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/dollar-slides-further-down-1-against-the-euro-and-sterling-20220909/“>Dollar slides further, down 1% against the euro and sterling</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/risk-trades-rejoice-on-dollar-correction-20220909/“>Risk trades rejoice on dollar correction</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-falls-further-on-the-day-amid-softer-dollar-kuroda-jawboning-20220909/“>USD/JPY falls further on the day amid softer dollar, Kuroda jawboning</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/heads-up-boe-postpones-september-policy-meeting-by-one-week-20220909/“>Heads up: BOE postpones September policy meeting by one week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-inflation-should-be-back-to-around-2-by-2024-20220909/“>ECB’s Villeroy: Inflation should be back to around 2% by 2024</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-our-hands-are-completely-free-on-next-policy-move-20220909/“>ECB’s Villeroy: Our hands are „completely free“ on next policy move</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-kaimr-75-bps-rate-hike-was-inevitable-and-right-20220909/“>ECB’s Kažimír: 75 bps rate hike was inevitable and right</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-knot-curbing-the-dynamic-in-inflation-is-the-only-concern-20220909/“>ECB’s Knot: Curbing the dynamic in inflation is the only concern</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/china-august-m2-money-supply-122-vs-121-yy-expected-20220909/“>China August M2 money supply +12.2% vs +12.1% y/y expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>AUD leads, USD lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.8%</li><li>US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps to 3.269%</li><li>Gold up 1.1% to $1,726.50</li><li>WTI crude up 1.9% to $85.16</li><li>Bitcoin up 8.2% to $20,981</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The US dollar is seeing a significant correction towards the end of the week and that is the key story in markets today.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>You can point to a more hawkish ECB, jawboning by Japanese officials, a better outlook on the UK economy amid support from the fiscal side, or even a rally in stocks as main reasons for the move. But I would say it is all of that put together alongside a confluence of technical levels holding in place against the dollar this week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD defended daily support at 0.9900 in the past few days before running up 1% earlier to 1.0112, settling up 0.5% at 1.0040-50 levels at the moment. Daily resistance at 1.0075-90 remains a key spot to watch.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>GBP/USD held at the March 2020 lows near 1.1400 on the week and has rebounded to 1.1648 earlier before keeping up by 0.5% around 1.1555 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, USD/JPY is continuing its retreat after coming within a whisker of touching 145.00 two days back and has fallen further to a low of 141.50 earlier before holding around 142.50-60 levels currently.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>USD/CAD also saw a rejection at daily resistance at 1.3200 on the week before sliding back today to just below 1.3000 and is now barely hanging above the figure level. AUD/USD kept a defense of key trendline support on the weekly chart just near 0.6700 before seeing a strong rebound today to 0.6877 – keeping around 0.6830 now, up 1.1% on the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Elsewhere, equities are looking to finish the week with a flourish with European indices trying to eat into the weekly losses while US stocks are hoping to snap a run of three straight weeks of declines. The risk rally has also helped to see oil be up by nearly 2% to above $85 and Bitcoin rally back above $20,000 on the day.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This comes amid the mourning period that is being observed, so the central bank has decided to postpone the meeting (originally scheduled for 15 September). The policy decision will now be announced at 1100 GMT on 22 September. Just a heads up, so make sure you tweak those calendars for next week.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>So far, the pricing going into the decision is favouring slightly a 50 bps rate hike (~65%) with a 75 bps rate hike (~35%) now seen as being less likely.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at forexlive.com.