UK industrial order books slip in June but the good news is that price expectations also eased to a 9-month low. It is a bit contrasting with rising consumer inflation but CBI notes that this could be „the first signs that weaker activity is beginning to slow the pace of price increases in the sector“.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
*relative to Friday levels
The euro is among the better performers so far with EUR/USD climbing from 1.0520 to 1.0580 on the session, helped by continued hawkish remarks by ECB policymakers.
The high last week near 1.0600 will offer up some minor resistance with the daily close one to watch as to whether buyers can keep a hold above the 50.0 Fib retracement level at 1.0566. For now, the near-term bias is more bullish upon the push above the 200-hour moving average (blue line) earlier in the day.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD has also managed to climb above 1.2300 and is up 0.5% on the day currently:
The 1.2400 level will still offer sterner resistance with traders continuing to try and sort out the divergence story in the pair.
Elsewhere, USD/CAD is pinned near the lows and is down 0.5% to 1.2910 amid a double-top pattern being formed just above 1.3050:
The better risk appetite and higher oil prices (WTI crude up 2% to $111.85) are both also contributing to a stronger loonie on the day.
Looking at other commodity currencies, the gains are more measured with AUD/USD up 0.4% to 0.6975 and still keeping below 0.7000 and its 200-hour moving average at 0.6996. NZD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.6355 with the Friday high at 0.6395 keeping a lid on any upside push for the time being.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
With it being a long weekend in the US, markets are seeing less appetite to stray away from Friday’s bit-part relief.
Equities are trading a little higher after a dreadful escapade last week, with European indices holding decent gains with US futures also ticking higher. The dollar is seeing a bit of a retreat across the board as such amid the calmer risk tones.
EUR/USD was steady during the session around 1.0510-30 after advancing in Asia from its opening gap lower around 1.0475. Meanwhile, GBP/USD also recovered some ground in a push from 1.2230 to test its 200-hour moving average at 1.2281.
USD/JPY was little changed but retreated from 135.10 to 134.80-90 levels as the yen keeps pace with the dollar at the back of the group.
Elsewhere, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both up 0.9% on the day to 0.6990 and 0.6360 respectively while the franc continues to push for gains after the SNB policy pivot last week. USD/CHF is down 0.5% to 0.9650 with the low earlier touching 0.9620.
It’s going to be a quiet one in the session ahead with Wall Street out for the day but there will be a couple of ECB and Fed speakers to keep things moving along as the new week gets underway.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Steady as she goes for the Swiss franc as it continues to creep higher after the SNB policy pivot last week.
The downside push in USD/CHF ran into trendline support before stalling at the end of last week and that is the key area being tested once again currently. That said, the double-top pattern just above 1.0000 is an ominous technical signal when you couple it with the change in the narrative at the SNB.
A push below the trendline support will bring into focus the late May and early June lows around 0.9545-56 next.
Elsewhere, EUR/CHF is also down 0.4% to 1.0135 as the pair continues to look towards parity. Meanwhile, CHF/JPY is making a run for it above 140.00 – touching fresh highs since 1980 upon the break higher from the end of last week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Well, if they’re concerned about markets getting carried away then they should have done a better job in terms of communicating their policy outlook from the get-go. Their first mistake was sticking with the ‚transitory‘ narrative for too long. Things have just been snowballing from there ever since.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Sure, sure. But that’s not what Visco said last week here. In any case, they continue to talk up the „fundamentals“ but again how can you really talk about that without addressing the fact that there are risks related to fragmentation and markets are well within their means to look to price that in. *cries in Italian debt*
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Looking at the details, civil engineering activity decreased by 5.5% while building
construction activity increased by 0.1% on the month. That reaffirms some softness in the construction sector to start Q2 in the euro area.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
This is the lowest since mid-December 2020 and there isn’t much in the way of support on the weekly chart.
While bitcoin’s 12% decline today is bad, the 14.5% drop in ethereum is even worse. It’s broken $1000 for the first time since January 2021 and has continued to $932.
Last week we highlighted the importance of $1700 as support and — wow — did it ever implode after the break. It’s down 45% in less that two weeks.
The catalyst for the latest leg down was the implosion of luna, followed by the problems at Celsius and then the evident downfall of the crypto hedge fund 3AC.
Nothing goes straight down forever and bear-market bounces can be incredible. As bad as these charts look, there will be bounces but right now it’s a negative feedback loop to the downside.
Even more worrisome are the persistent questions about the usefulness of Web 3.0. The idea of a decentralized and permissionless internet is intoxicating but a decade later, we’re still struggling develop for legal use cases. At the same time, the cheap money has dried up so it will be increasingly difficult to build something novel. Hopefully the seeds have been planted for something besides speculation and money laundering.
This thread from the founders of AirBnB and Box made a good point about product-market fit in a January thread.
Levie added to this today, saying:
„And this was the diplomatic version 🙃. I don’t believe it’s a good idea for the tech industry to be running around saying we’ve figured out a revolutionary new internet (which is patently untrue) while taking in consumer investment in a flawed system before PMF.“
That’s a stinging critique but it’s also a sign of the phase that we’re in right now. People are gnawing at the core of the idea.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
CME futures hours are, in summary (there are exceptions):
See the pic below:
For (much!) more detail, check this out:
You can download the Excel info sheet as shown below:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.