That means OPEC+ will agree to another 432k bpd oil output increase for June. The bloc is scheduled to meet on 5 May, so mark that in your calendars. That said, with the lack of enthusiasm to address the elephant in the room, OPEC+ meetings these days have been a real bore.But you can’t really blame them for being satisfied with oil prices at over $100 now, can you?

It didn’t take long for the dollar to regain its footing as it is now putting the pedal to the metal once again. EUR/USD is back down 0.5% to 1.0500 and GBP/USD is making fresh lows on the day, down 0.6% to 1.2465. I outlined the charts for both earlier here.Meanwhile, the aussie and kiwi have also lost ground with AUD/USD down 0.5% to 0.7090 and NZD/USD down 1.0% to 0.6475. I highlighted their respective technical predicaments earlier here.USD/JPY is also still sticking above 130.00 around 130.30-50 levels after briefly clipping 131.00.I talked more on the dollar’s rampaging run earlier in these posts:The dollar is on a rampageNo red line being drawn yet on the yuan’s plungeBOJ plays a dangerous game, yen lock and loaded for the next leg lowerDollar funding looking rather tight as of late

Nothing significant to really take note of for the day, as the dollar continues to surge higher across the board.The interesting thing to be aware of is again that there are no major expiries seen in and around USD/JPY on the way up, so that leaves plenty of room for price to roam more freely – at least one can interpret it that way.As mentioned earlier in the week, the dollar is pretty much in a league of its own at the moment and there isn’t much to really shake things up before the FOMC meeting on 4 May next week.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

Tesla’s drag was a key talking point yesterday as tech stocks were hammered with the Nasdaq falling near 4%. The chart doesn’t paint a pretty picture with the index down by over 20% now since the turn of the year:

The support from the 38.2 retracement level @ 12,552 is the key one to watch this week with the March 2021 low @ 12,397 adding to some additional downside buffer. But break that region and things could get even uglier and in such a scenario, I can’t see how that would not spillover and impact broader market sentiment.For now, things are calmer heading into the US session but the earlier optimism has certainly been snuffed out. Nasdaq futures are up 0.1% after having been up by around 0.8%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% but part of the gains owes to value stocks with Dow futures seen up 0.7%.

Prior -5.0%
Market index 343.1 vs 374.0 prior
Purchase index 234.7 vs 254.0 prior
Refinancing index 930.7 vs 1,023.2 prior
30-year mortgage rate 5.37% vs 5.20% prior

The average rate of the most popular US home loan jumps to its highest since June 2009 and the rising costs have certainly weighed on demand conditions, as mortgage activity slumped heavily once again. The purchase index has fallen to its lowest since May 2020 while the refinancing index is down to its weakest since January 2019.

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A recap of the headlines from today:Russia’s gas ‚blackmail‘ one to watch in the days aheadRussia’s Gazprom: Gas supplies to Poland, Bulgaria halted until payment in rubles is madeFour European gas buyers said to have already paid for supplies in rublesDo take note that transit supplies (since Poland and Bulgaria are considered ‚transit states‘) will continue as they are but in the event that there is any „stealing“, then Gazprom will reduce said supplies by the amount taken away.

Prior 9UK retail sales is seen slumping in April with the first fall in volumes being reported in more than a year. That just reaffirms the likelihood that we are seeing a change in consumption activity/pattern as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies. CBI notes that:“Retail sales were below seasonal norms in April as consumer spending continued to shift back towards services and rising prices impacted households‘ spending power.“

Headlines:USD/JPY surge meets a pause so far on the weekNo reprieve for the euro as 2020 low eyedCable plummets further, falls below 1.2700 to fresh lows since September 2020US futures dribble lower to start the sessionOil and gold face near similar technical configurationsJapan PM Kishida: Rapid FX moves are undesirableBOJ to purchase unlimited amounts of 10-year JGBs at 0.25% on 27-28 AprilECB’s Kazaks says prefers first rate hike to come in JulyMarkets:JPY leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures down 0.4%US 10-year yields down 4.9 bps to 2.775%Gold up 0.3% to $1,903.62WTI up 0.6% to $99.12Bitcoin up 0.7% to $40,475It is a bit of a mixed session as we see bond yields retreat after a bit of a rise earlier in the day. The drop in yields comes alongside a fall in US futures as well, in which we saw S&P 500 futures erase gains of 0.3% to be down by 0.4% now. Safety flows perhaps or maybe some month-end moves for the bond market after the relentless selling in April?European stocks are mostly higher but that owes to a catch up play to the sharp bounce in US equities yesterday, so it isn’t really a strong indicator of risk sentiment at the moment.In FX, things are looking more mixed with the yen firming across the board while the dollar is trading in the middle of the pack. The euro and the pound are the weakest currencies with EUR/USD dribbling below 1.0700 from around 1.0720 at the start of the session. The pair is trading at the lows now close to 1.0670, eyeing the 2020 low of 1.0635.GBP/USD is also seeing another down day, falling 0.4% to 1.2685 as sellers continue to keep the pressure towards the September 2020 low of 1.2675.Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen easing lower from 128.00 to 127.50-60 levels as buyers and sellers continue to duke it out in between the key hourly moving averages here.The aussie and the kiwi are among the better performers with AUD/USD up 0.3% to 0.7200 and NZD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6630 but the gains aren’t amounting to much as compared to the drop in recent days.

Well, in terms of sentiment, not much has changed since my post last week here.I outlined why cable is struggling and the same mood is persisting as we get into the new week. The drop below the 50.0 retracement level @ 1.2830 sees sellers open up the next leg lower and that is towards the 1.2700 level now. The September 2020 low @ 1.2675 is also a key one to watch as a break below this region sets out the next push towards 1.2500 with the 61.8 retracement level sitting @ 1.2495.Month-end flows might make it a bit more tricky but given that the usual suspects will still be at play until the Fed next week, I continue to maintain the view that sterling might not see much reprieve in the meantime.