• Final Manufacturing PMI 49.9 vs. 50.3 expected and 51.5 prior.

Key findings:

• Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 in October.
• Reduced new order intakes rein in output growth.
• Input price inflation eases sharply.

Comment:

Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“UK manufacturing started the final quarter of the year
on an uncertain footing amid speculation on government
policies ahead of the Budget, which was widely reported
to have led to a wait-and-see approach on investment
and spending. This domestic headwind, combined with an
ongoing loss of export business, led to the first outright
contraction in new work intakes since April.

Output growth
came close to stalling as a result.
The generally lacklustre environment was also reflected
in the headline PMI slipping below its neutral 50.0 mark
and business optimism hovering only slightly above
September’s nine-month low.
There was better news on the price front. Input cost
inflation fell to a ten-month low, easing to one of the
greatest extents in the 33-year survey history.

Selling
price inflation also moderated. This may provide some
headroom for policy makers to support growth if demand
weakens.
The November PMI will be especially keenly anticipated
to see the near-term impact of the Budget on business
conditions and in particular the effect on confidence.”

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The
Asian financial markets are experiencing a substantial increase in interest
from novice traders. In Southeast Asia, online trading has expanded rapidly,
driven by growing internet access and an increasingly digital-savvy population.
In Indonesia, active online traders grew by 18%,
supported by a thriving e-commerce sector and rising financial literacy. Across
Southeast Asia, the digital economy is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, highlighting the region’s fast-paced growth and
the broadening appeal of financial trading as a means to diversify income
streams and improve financial security.

While
the trend for trading is obvious, beginners often find themselves lost in the
whirlpool of markets, assets, graphs, and tools. To facilitate entry for novice
traders, Octa, a broker with globally recognised licences, explains how to get
started and what assets to consider for first trades. It also offers vital tips
on diversification and risk management.

3 assets for beginner traders

For
those just starting their trading journey, selecting the right assets is
crucial. Beginners should focus on stable, liquid, and widely traded
instruments that offer enough volatility for profit opportunities but not too
much unpredictability. In this guide, Octa explores three such assets.

Gold

Gold’s
historical stability makes it a great choice for beginner traders. It is less
volatile than other financial instruments, and its liquidity ensures that
traders can always find buyers or sellers when they need to close a position.
Additionally, gold is well-supported by fundamental factors like inflation and
geopolitical tensions, offering traders steady opportunities over the long
term.

In
2024, with global markets facing heightened volatility and currencies in key
Asian economies, including India and China, experiencing depreciation
pressures, gold’s appeal has strengthened. According to the OECD Economic
Outlook for Southeast Asia, China, and India 2024, currency fluctuations and rising inflation in
these regions have prompted investors to seek more stable assets, making gold
an increasingly attractive option.

Gold
demand in Asia has surged to notable levels in 2024, driven by increased
investments in gold bars and jewellery across the region. Thailand, for
instance, saw consumer gold demand soar by 20% to 9 tonnes in Q2 2024, marking the highest growth rate in Southeast Asia.
With the festive season approaching in countries like India, the World Gold
Council anticipates further boosts in gold demand, which, combined with global
inflationary pressures, has pushed gold prices higher. For beginner traders,
these stable and growing trends make gold an attractive asset for both
stability and long-term growth potential.

For beginners, trading gold is
fairly straightforward. They can either take long positions (buy gold when they
believe prices will rise) or short positions (sell when they expect prices to
fall). As a basic example below shows, those who opened long positions at
$2,604 per ounce have already seen gains of $116 per ounce. With a 1,000-ounce
trade, this translates into a profit of $116,000.

EURUSD

The EURUSD pair is among the most
popular and liquid in the Forex market, making it perfect for beginners.
Liquidity is key here, as it promotes tight spreads and allows traders to enter
and exit positions without facing significant slippage. Furthermore, EURUSD
trading volumes are among the highest globally, allowing beginners to buy and
sell easily, even with small amounts of capital.

Moreover, this currency pair is
preferable for beginners due to the wide availability of market information.
Anyone can easily find analyses, forecasts, and educational resources online,
making it simpler to understand how the asset behaves. The EURUSD pair is also
relatively stable, meaning that wild price swings are less common, allowing
beginners to learn the market without excessive volatility. As the example
below shows, traders who sold EURUSD at $1.12 and closed at $1.08 earned $333
from a 0.1-lot trade. This illustrates that even small trades can bring
tangible profits.

Beginners can start by analysing
key economic data from both the U.S. and the Eurozone. The pair reacts to major
announcements like GDP figures, interest rate changes, and employment reports.
However, it’s advised to avoid trading when news is released, to protect one’s
capital from unexpected volatility.

Brent and WTI

Brent and WTI (West Texas
Intermediate) crude oil are two of the most significant commodities traded
worldwide, often referred to as ‚black gold‘. They are attractive assets for
beginners because of their liquidity and frequent price movements, allowing for
opportunities to profit in both rising and falling markets.

Oil is a highly liquid commodity,
meaning that traders can easily buy and sell contracts without much risk of
slippage. Furthermore, oil prices are strongly influenced by global factors
such as geopolitical events, supply chain disruptions, and shifts in energy
policies. This gives traders clear cues to watch for when planning their
trades. One of the most common strategies for trading oil is to follow
geopolitical events and OPEC’s (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries) decisions, which can influence prices dramatically. However, traders
should also keep in mind that such events may provoke increased volatility.

Beginners can easily enter oil
trading as a rather small deposit is enough. In the example below, traders who
opened a sell order on Brent at $79 and closed it at $69 earned a $1,000 profit
from just a $100 capital investment.

Diversification as the #1 rule for beginners

Diversification is spreading your
investments across different asset classes to reduce risk. The idea is that if
one asset underperforms, others in the portfolio may still do well, helping to
protect your capital.

For beginner traders,
diversification is an essential risk management strategy. Instead of putting
their whole capital into one asset, such as gold or oil, they can spread their
investment across multiple assets, reducing the risk of large losses. Diversifying
also allows traders to take advantage of different market conditions. For
instance, when gold prices rise during times of uncertainty, oil may experience
price drops due to falling demand.

Kar Yong Ang, financial market
analyst at Octa broker, notes: ‚Diversification
isn’t just a strategy—it’s a
necessity for new traders. By allocating funds across multiple assets, you
protect your portfolio from unexpected market movements, ensuring that no
single downturn significantly impacts your trading results.‘ He adds that a
well-diversified portfolio might allocate 40% to gold, 30% to EURUSD, and 30%
to Brent crude oil.

5 tips for beginner traders

1. Learn the market basics: Start
   by understanding the fundamentals of the financial markets. Learn what
   drives asset prices and how market events, like geopolitical changes or
   central bank announcements, can affect the assets you’re trading.
2. Practise on a demo account: Before
   risking real money, use a demo account to trade in simulated conditions.
   This gives you a chance to familiarise yourself with the platform, learn
   the ropes, and refine your strategies without financial risk.
3. Limit exposure to 5% of your
   deposit: One of the biggest mistakes beginners make is over-leveraging.
   Never risk more than 5% of your total deposit on any single trade. This
   way, even if a trade goes wrong, you won’t lose your entire account
   balance.
4. Diversify your portfolio: Spread
   your investments across different assets. By diversifying, you reduce risk
   and make your portfolio more resilient to market fluctuations.
5. Commit to continuous learning: The
   financial markets are always changing, and successful traders are those
   who never stop learning. Stay up-to-date on market news, attend webinars,
   and continuously study new strategies to stay ahead.

Conclusion

For beginner traders in Asia
starting with reliable assets such as gold, the EURUSD currency pair, and oil
provides a solid foundation. Trading offers the opportunity to create
additional income but requires careful planning, strategic diversification, and
continuous learning.

By following these tips and
focusing on stable, widely traded assets, you can build a profitable trading
strategy while managing risk effectively. Remember that patience and discipline
are key, and with the right approach, trading can become a valuable source of
income.

About
Octa

Octa is an
international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide
since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and a variety
of services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52
million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals,
Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.

The company is involved in a
comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the
improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects
supporting local communities.

Since its foundation, Octa has won
more than 70 awards, including the ‘Best Forex Broker 2023’ award from
AllForexRating and the ‘Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024’ award from Global
Brand Magazine.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 72.82k

US-based employers announced 55,597 job cuts in October and that is a near 24% decrease from the number of layoffs announced in September. That said, it is up almost 51% compared to the October of 2023. From last month’s report, we already saw the number of layoffs year-to-date in 2024 surpassing the entire total for 2023. So, this continues with that trend and suggests softening in the labour market this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The strong bullish momentum
in the US Dollar waned a bit in this final part of the week as we got a
pullback in Treasury yields. In fact, the main culprit for the US Dollar
strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields.

The yield curve has been
bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and
potentially higher inflation expectations. There’s a good argument that this
rally was a reflection of higher Trump’s winning odds.

On the GBP side, we got the
UK budget announcement yesterday which led to some choppy
price action in the British Pound. It looks like the market took it as less
contractionary than expected with the markets scaling back rate cuts
expectations for the BoE.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD seems to be bottoming out around the major trendline with the buyers stepping in for a
potential rally into the 1.32 handle. The sellers will want to see the price
breaking below the trendline to extend the drop into the 1.27 handle.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is breaking above the downward trendline that was defining
the bearish momentum on this timeframe. This might be a signal of a bigger
pullback to the upside.

The buyers will need to
break above the 1.3050 level to gain more conviction and increase the bullish
bets into the 1.32 handle next. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely
step in around the 1.3050 level to position for the break of the major trendline.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the choppy price action since yesterday with no clear direction. There’s
not much to do here other than waiting for the price to either break above the
1.3050 level or below the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US PCE, the US Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost
Index data. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US NFP and the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s
important?

The ranges
of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual
data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another
important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts.

In fact,
although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on
the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of
estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise
effect.

Distribution
of forecasts for PCE

PCE Y/Y

• 2.2%
  (9%)
• 2.1%
  (66%) – consensus
• 2.0%
  (25%)

PCE M/M

• 0.2%
  (85%) – consensus
• 0.1%
  (15%)

Core PCE Y/Y

• 2.7%
  (19%)
• 2.6%
  (81%) – consensus

Core PCE M/M

• 0.3%
  (71%) – consensus
• 0.2%
  (29%)

Overall, I don’t think that the data this week matters that much as we have the US elections on Tuesday, but it could still move the market and add some more info to the bigger picture.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.7%
• HICP +1.0% vs +0.8% y/y expected
• Prior +0.7%

This matches up to what we are seeing with Spain, Germany, and France this week. Headline prices are marked higher in October but this did not lead to much change in core prices as seen with the Eurozone release at the same time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The main culprit for the US
Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The
yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher
growth and potentially higher inflation expectations.

There’s a good argument
that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory which is
expected to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations.

As previously mentioned,
this is the trend for now and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends
without a strong catalyst. The US Dollar will likely remain supported unless
Harris wins the US elections and we get a correction in Treasury yields.

On the NZD side, the latest
New Zealand Q3 CPI missed expectations solidifying the
market’s view for another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and even pricing 22%
chance of a 75 bps move. In 2025, the market expects four more 25 bps cuts.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD broke below the key 0.6050 support zone and extended the drop into new lows. From
a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the support
turned resistance, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking
higher to start targeting the 0.6217 resistance next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely lean on it to position for new lows, while
the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new
highs.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke above another minor trendline that was defining the
bearish momentum on this timeframe. The rally stalled at the most recent swing high
around the 0.60 handle.

The buyers will want to see
the price breaking above this level to increase the bullish bets into the major
trendline, while the sellers will likely step in around this level to position
for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US ADP and the US GDP. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE, the US
Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• 10-year Treasury yields stay in retreat after brief brush above 4.30% yesterday
• Euro pushes higher on German Q3 GDP beat, higher state inflation readings
• Germany Q3 preliminary GDP +0.2% vs -0.1% q/q expected
• Bavaria October CPI +2.4% vs +1.9% y/y prior
• UK budget preview: What to expect this time around?
• Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• France Q3 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.3% q/q expected
• Italy Q3 preliminary GDP 0.0% vs +0.2% q/q expected
• Spain Q3 preliminary GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% q/q expected
• Spain October preliminary CPI +1.8% vs +1.8% y/y expected
• Germany October unemployment change 27k vs 15k expected
• Switzerland October KOF leading indicator index 99.5 vs 105.0 expected
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 25 October -0.1% vs -6.7% prior
• SNB chairman Schlegel: Ready to intervene in currency markets as necessary

Markets:

• JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 5.2 bps to 4.220%
• Gold up 0.2% to $2,780.24
• WTI crude up 1.2% to $68.00
• Bitcoin down 0.2% to $72,167

It was a packed session with plenty of economic data releases to work through. But ultimately, they didn’t do much to shake up the market landscape on the day.

With month-end approaching, that alongside upcoming US data releases continue to be key focus points in impacting trading sentiment on the week.

We got stronger inflation numbers from Spain and Germany for October but the ECB had already warned about that previously. Then, there was a surprise in German Q3 GDP as well. And put together, that saw EUR/USD nudge up slightly from 1.0835 to 1.0859 briefly.

However, large option expiries and the fact that one month’s worth of numbers are not enough to change the ECB outlook saw the pair retreat back to 1.0830 currently.

Instead, the dollar is weaker at the balance but it owes to a continued retreat in Treasury yields after the highs yesterday. 10-year yields briefly touched a high of 4.32% yesterday but are now down by roughly 10 bps to 4.22%. Month-end shenanigans in play?

In any case, that is weighing on USD/JPY, with the pair down 0.3% to 152.90 currently. Meanwhile, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both up 0.2% to 0.6575 and 0.5985 respectively as well.

Elsewhere, the pound is the laggard as traders are positioning more negatively ahead of the UK budget announcement later. The fear is that chancellor Rachel Reeves might announce a budget that is deemed „fiscally irresponsible“ and that could weigh on the currency and upset the gilts market. So, there is a potential for a sterling recovery if she manages to thread the needle. But it’s definitely a fine line to work that out.

In other markets, European indices are selling off while US futures are marginally higher. The latter is feeling optimistic after Alphabet’s earnings beat with four more of the Magnificent 7 still to report this week. In the commodities space, gold continues to shine as it closes in on $2,800 in the bigger picture as the ascend continues.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -6.7%
• Market index 214.5 vs 214.8 prior
• Purchase index 137.8 vs 131.3 prior
• Refinancing index 630.0 vs 672.6 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.73% vs 6.52% prior

After a sharp fall in mortgage applications in the previous two weeks, the latest reading is little changed but it’s important to look at the details. Refinancing activity took yet another sharp plunge as higher rates once again weighed on that particular component. The drop was only offset by a modest jump in purchases activity in the past week. The refinancing index is now at the lowest since the end of July.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The main culprit for the US
Dollar strength lately has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The
yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what you would expect with higher
growth and potentially higher inflation expectations.

There’s a good argument
that the markets have been already positioning for a Trump’s victory which is
expected to strengthen the higher growth and less rate cuts expectations.

As previously mentioned,
this is the trend for now and it’s generally a bad idea to fight such trends
without a strong catalyst. The US Dollar will likely remain supported unless
Harris wins the US elections and we get a correction in Treasury yields.

On the AUD side, the latest
data has been pretty strong with the Australian labour market report last week beating expectations by a
big margin and today’s underlying
inflation figures remaining high. Although the data didn’t change much in
terms of interest rate expectations, it supports the RBA’s hawkish stance.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD broke through the 0.6622 level and extended the drop into new
lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk
to reward setup around the 0.6622 level to position for further downside. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start
targeting the 0.68 handle.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. The sellers will likely keep on leaning on it to position for new
lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in
for a rally into new highs.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much more we can add as the sellers will look to lean on the trendline,
while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the US ADP and the US GDP. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE, the US
Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.