Retail sales y/y -0.7% vs -0.7% expected, prior -1.0%.
The retail sales for the euro area printed below expectations, but the EUR remains steady as everyone is expecting the US jobs data.
Here is the breakdown of volume of retail trade for March:
This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
🔍 Analyzing the AMD long term… For the last 24 years:
📊 Technical indicators:
🔻 What does this mean?:
🤔 For AMD stock investors and traders:
💡 Key takeaways for this long term AMD analysis:
🔗 Stay updated every trading day of AMD stock
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
It’s important to note that the employment data released throughout the week has been mostly better than expected or better than priors:
That means that the whisper number for NFP tomorrow might be slightly higher than the 200k consensus estimate.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. The price recently broke out of the rising wedge and
bounced on the key 16206 level where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is a critical support zone as a continuation to the downside should trigger a
major correction with the 14500 level as the ultimate target.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price bounced on the 16206 level where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence. The buyers stepped
in with a defined risk below the Fibonacci level to position for a rally into a
new all-time high, but they will need the price to rise back above the trendline to
increase the momentum. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price reversing and breaking below the Fibonacci level to pile in more
aggressively into new lows.
Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the strong bounce yesterday following the
ISM Services PMI release. We can see that we have a counter-trendline that
acted as resistance lately. If the price were to break above this
counter-trendline, we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into a
new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the
counter-trendline to position for a break below the Fibonacci level with a
better risk to reward setup.
Upcoming
Events
Today we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
Markets will be paying additional attention to this one following the upside surprise in the manufacturing data on Monday.
With the last print, majority of measures stayed in expansion, while employment was the only sub-index that remained below 50.
I think markets will be paying particular attention to the prices paid component after the solid jump we had in manufacturing prices.
It goes without saying, but when analyzing ISM releases, don’t just focus on the headline number itself.
That usually get the first initial reaction, but markets soon digest the rest of the sub-indexes to get a better sense of how good or how bad the data was.
Make sure to include all of the components into your analysis.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Notes on mortgage application data:
Indexes are adjusted for seasonal variations. The changes in percentages for these indexes and the
difference in the mortgage rate are compared with the previous week. The
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey, which has been done every week since
1990, includes more than 75% of all home loan applications in the U.S. People
who take part in this survey include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and
savings institutions
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke
through the key $83 resistance where we
had also the upper bound of the channel as an extra barrier. This breakout
should point to further gains ahead with the $89 level as the next target. If
the price were to pull back to retest the resistance now turned support, the
buyers should step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into
the $89 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the
lower bound of the channel around the $78 level.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we can find
some more confluence around
the $83 support as we can find the red 21 moving average and the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
If the price were to extend the pullback though, the buyers will have the trendline and the
61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as the last line of defence. Below the
trendline, the sellers will regain control and we could see a selloff back into
the $78 level.
WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest leg higher diverged with
the MACD which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it should signal a pullback into the minor trendline
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence.
All these setups will be dip-buying opportunities for the buyers but depending
on the strength of the momentum and the economic data, the price might bounce
from either level. For this reason, the buyers might want to split their orders
or wait for a catalyst to pile in.
Upcoming Events
Today we have the US ADP and the US ISM Services
PMI. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US NFP report. Weak data is likely to weigh on Crude
Oil in the short term, while strong figures should give it a boost.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
Markets have certainly come a long way in pricing out some of the aggressive cuts we saw at the start of the year.
There was a lot of chatter on Monday about the first rate cut for the Fed being pushed back to September.
I don’t think that tells the whole story though.
Yes, technically the first cut is fully priced in for September, but there is still 24 basis points of cuts implied for July, which is just a whisker away from 25.
Other pricing that I’m keeping an eye on this week is for the SNB. Markets are currently pricing a 71% probability of a cut in June.
Which means Thursday’s inflation data will be important for how that view evolves.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.