Headlines:

• USD/JPY nudges lower as Japanese authorities meet
• Japan’s MOF, FSA, and BOJ to hold meeting to discuss financial markets
• Japan top currency diplomat Kanda: Recent yen moves are not reflecting fundamentals
• Japan finance minister Suzuki keeps mum when asked about stealth FX intervention
• Japan finance minister Suzuki reiterates that will take decisive action if needed on FX
• Japan chief Cabinet secretary says rapid FX moves are undesirable
• BOJ governor Ueda says FX moves have big impact on economy, prices
• BOJ governor Ueda says won’t rule out any options if economic, price developments worsen
• BOJ’s Tamura: It is desirable for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals
• Spain March preliminary CPI +3.2% vs +3.2% y/y expected
• France March consumer confidence 91 vs 90 expected
• Switzerland March UBS investor confidence 11.5 vs 10.2 prior

Markets:

• JPY leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.223%
• Gold up 0.8% to $2,196.53
• WTI Crude down 0.6% to $81.13
• Bitcoin up 0.4% to $70,087

The main focus on the session was the Japanese yen, as it fell early on in Asia to its lowest since 1990 against the dollar.

USD/JPY touched a high of 151.97 before backing off slightly to around 151.60-70 levels as we got into European trading. Then, came a barrage of comments from Japanese officials but it did little to move the needle.

Japan top currency diplomat Kanda then came out to say that a meeting between the MOF, FSA, and BOJ was not needed yet. But as the verbal intervention lacked effectiveness, they had to resort to that as a meeting was called with less than 15 minutes warning.

That saw the yen gain some ground with USD/JPY falling from 151.70 to 151.15 initially. Kanda’s remarks were as you’d expect, just added jawboning and that saw USD/JPY bounce back to 151.40. But as the dust settles and the potential for Tokyo to act going into the Easter break later this week, we are seeing USD/JPY bulls favour caution as the pair now falls to 151.05 on the day.

Outside of that, the major currencies space was quite a bore. The dollar traded more steadily across the board with light changes to note. That makes the yen the only notable mover, with CHF/JPY also falling to its lowest levels for the year amid a „divergence“ in policy stance.

In other markets, equities are looking to bounce back after the late setback in Wall Street yesterday. European indices are higher again alongside US futures during the session. Meanwhile, gold is once again looking poised after a rejection at $2,200 yesterday. Is it third time the charm for the precious metal in March trading?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -1.6%
• Market index 196.8 vs 198.2 prior
• Purchase index 145.7 vs 146.0 prior
• Refinance index 460.9 vs 468.4 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 6.93% vs 6.97% prior

Mortgage applications declined in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activities falling. That comes despite a slight easing in the average rate of the most popular US home loan, although still keeping near 7%.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite fell into the close
ending the day negative as the market continues to consolidate awaiting better
levels where to trade from and new information to price in. We are now near a
key support zone and what happens here will be crucial especially if the data
continues to surprise to the upside and Fed members continue to push back rate
cuts. The path of least resistance remains to the upside but watch out for a
breakout of the support as that could lead to profit taking and a wave of
bearish bets.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq
Composite has
been diverging with
the MACD for a
long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. We continue to trade inside the rising wedge, so if
the price were to break below the trendline, the
sellers will have much more conviction to look for new lows with the base of
the wedge at 14477 being the ultimate target.

Nasdaq Composite
Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the
price is near the bottom trendline where we can also find the confluence of the
red 21 moving average and
the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into new lows with the
15937 level as the first target.

Nasdaq Composite Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action and the bullish setup around the trendline.
What happens here will likely decide where the market will go in the next few
weeks as a bounce should lead to new highs and a break trigger a selloff.

Upcoming
Events

Today we have Fed’s Waller speaking. Tomorrow, we
get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the
US PCE report and Fed Chair Powell.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Plus500, a global multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary
technology-based trading platforms, announced the launch of its upgraded
Trading Academy. With a host of new features and resources, the Plus500 Trading
Academy serves as a one-stop shop for traders to access key financial news and
enhance their knowledge and insights.
These upgrades are part of Plus500’s commitment to providing traders on
its platform with access to information and support that enables them to make
the most informed trading decisions.

The newly
revamped Plus500 Trading Academy is underpinned by the Group’s cutting-edge
proprietary technology and comprises improved educational materials across
multiple media formats including how-to trading videos, informative articles
and analysis, webinars from market experts about specific instruments,
and how they work. In addition, it also features a regularly updated news
section, providing users with accessible content relating to key global
business and economic news, to help inform their trading decisions.

Key
features of the Plus500 Trading Academy include:

●
Improved visual design for a better user experience

●
All-inclusive: users can now easily find all the informative
content in one place

●
Newly added section with beginner-oriented
content for new traders

●
Newly added webinars that were previously available only to premium traders

●
Relevant News & Market Insights

●
Useful tools for Plus500 traders: eBook, FAQs, and more.

David Zruia, Chief Executive Officer from
Plus500 said: “We are excited to relaunch our Trading Academy with its improved
and updated interactive content offering. This upgrade aims to answer the different needs
of our customers. We strongly believe that by
providing traders with improved access to comprehensive
training and information resources, we can enhance
their trading experience on our intuitive and easy-to-use OTC platform.”

Find out
more about our enhanced Plus500 Trading Academy here:

About Plus500

Plus500 is a global
multi-asset fintech group operating proprietary technology-based trading
platforms. Plus500 offers customers a range of trading products, including OTC
(“Over-the-Counter” products, namely Contracts for Difference (CFDs)), share
dealing, as well as futures and options on futures.

The Group retains
operating licences and is regulated in the United Kingdom, Australia, Cyprus,
Israel, New Zealand, South Africa, Singapore, the Seychelles, the United
States, Estonia, Japan, the UAE and the Bahamas and through its OTC product
portfolio, offers more than 2,500 different underlying global financial
instruments, comprising equities, indices, commodities, options, ETFs, foreign
exchange and cryptocurrencies. Customers of the Group can trade its OTC
products in more than 60 countries and in 30 languages.

Plus500’s trading
platforms are accessible from multiple operating systems (iOS, Android and
Windows) and web browsers. Customer care is, and has always been, integral to
Plus500. As such, OTC customers cannot be subject to negative balances. A free
demo account is available on an unlimited basis for OTC trading platform users
and sophisticated risk management tools are provided free of charge to manage
leveraged exposure, and stop losses to help customers protect profits, while
limiting capital losses.

Plus500 shares have a
premium listing on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange (symbol: PLUS)
and are a constituent of the FTSE 250 index. www.plus500.com.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Speculative moves are behind recent yen movement
• Does not consider a 4% move in a span of 2 weeks as being a „mild“ move
• Closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency
• Will not rule out any steps to respond to „disorderly“ FX moves

It was evident that the barrage of verbal jawboning throughout the week wasn’t working. So, this was the next step by Japanese authorities. Kanda’s remarks are just a tad stronger compared to all the other warnings today. But that is only the case because it is reinforced by a meeting between the three parties noted above.

Otherwise, his remarks aren’t anything new in terms of what we’ve already heard. But that is what we already expected. If anything, it is just an added emphasis that they could look to intervene if things continue in the sessions ahead.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar continues to get checked back to start the week
• BOE’s Mann: Markets are pricing in too many rate cuts
• ECB’s Muller: We are closer to the point to start cutting rates
• BOJ notes that core inflation measures were lower in February than in the month before
• Germany April GfK consumer sentiment -27.4 vs -27.9 expected
• Spain Q4 final GDP +0.6% vs +0.6% q/q prelim
• Large ship collides with Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, causing it to collapse
• China president Xi reportedly to meet with US business executives later this week
• North Korea shuns proposed summit with Japan

Markets:

• NZD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields down 1.3 bps to 4.239%
• Gold up 1.1% to $2,196.42
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $81.56
• Bitcoin down 0.4% to $70,655

It was a slow session in terms of headlines but there were some decent market moves overall.

The dollar continues to be checked back as it slips a little further to start the new week. And that comes as the risk mood is faring better after the sluggish showing yesterday.

EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0860 although large option expiries are keeping a lid on the pair for now. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is also up 0.2% to 1.2660 as buyers contest the 100-hour moving average at 1.2667 on the session. USD/JPY was more muted though, holding little changed at 151.35 in a mere 25 pips range today.

The Swiss franc is the laggard as USD/CHF keeps above 0.9000, with the SNB rate cut still reverberating. As for commodity currencies, they are taking advantage of the better mood in equities for now. USD/CAD is down 0.2% to 1.3560 while AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.6553 on the day.

In the equities space, things got off to a lackluster start but we are seeing some quiet optimism seep through now. S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% and European indices are pushing higher as well, not letting up on the gains in the last few weeks.

In other markets, gold is also ripping higher as the bulls eye another attempt at the $2,200 level. The precious metal is up over 1% to sit around $2,196 currently. Meanwhile, Bitcoin saw a brief surge up to $71,569 before pulling back a little in volatile trading so far today.

Outside of markets, there was a tragic accident in Baltimore as a large ship collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge and caused a portion of the bridge to collapse. Thoughts and prayers to those affected by the incident.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed
  three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth
  and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.
• Fed Chair Powell
  maintained a neutral stance as he said that it was premature to react to the
  recent inflation data given possible bumps on the way to their 2% target.
• The US CPI and
  the US PPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations across the board.
• The latest US Manufacturing
  PMI
  beat expectations while the Services PMI missed slightly. Both the measures
  remain in expansion though.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting revising inflation and growth expectations
  downwards and maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI beat
  expectations.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping
  further in contraction.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD sold off
into the weekend as the US data surprised once again to the upside. The trend
might have changed as the price continues to print lower lows and lower highs
with the moving averages being
crossed to the downside. The price bounced on the 1.08 handle as the selloff
got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving
average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving
average or some consolidation before the next move.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair
bounced on a key support around
the 1.08 handle and it’s now at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above
the Fibonacci level to position for a drop back into the 1.08 support targeting
a break below it. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the key levels marked on the chart. We now have a counter-trendline and
the red 21 moving average giving support for the buyers. If we were to get a
pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for a rally
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we have the US Durable Goods Orders and the US
Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we have Fed’s Waller speaking. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude with the US PCE and Fed Chair Powell.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are now seen up 0.4% with tech shares leading the way once again. Nasdaq futures are up 0.6% and that is underpinning the overall risk mood in European morning trade. In Europe itself, regional indices are climbing after a more tentative start. And that is putting a slight drag on the dollar as seen here.

The DAX is now up 0.5% with the CAC 40 up 0.2% on the day. UK stocks are the laggard but even the FTSE 100 is now flat on the session after a slow start.

In other markets, gold is surging once again as the precious metal is up 0.9% to above $2,190 while Bitcoin is also slightly higher to and nudging just above $71,000. The latter is returning to its highest levels since 15 March currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The moves are relatively light but it continues from the slight drop in the dollar from yesterday. And that follows from the stronger gains at the end of last week for the greenback. As such, it is looking to be a case of the dollar getting checked back so far to start the new week. EUR/USD is up 0.2% to 1.0855 but continues to sit just under its 100-day moving average for now:

There are also some large option expiries at 1.0860-70 that are likely to limit any further gains. However, buyers are starting to contest a break above the 100-hour moving average of 1.0853 now. Push above that and the near-term bias switches to being more neutral. But the 100-day moving average at 1.0873 remains a key ceiling to watch in the bigger picture.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is down slightly by 0.1% to 151.28 but trapped in a relatively narrow range under 25 pips today. Meanwhile, GBP/USD is up 0.2% to 1.2660 as it pushes back past its own 100-day moving average of 1.2636 currently. But there is some near-term resistance from the 100-hour moving average at 1.2667 next.

Besides that, USD/CAD is backing away from the 1.3600 mark to 1.3568 at the moment while AUD/USD is up 0.2% to 0.6550 on the day. The latter is testing its own 200-day moving average at 0.6550 as well as its 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 0.6548-55. Push above those levels and buyers will seize more control in trying to return to an upside bias.

The dollar’s slight weakness on the day comes as equities are slowly nudging higher during the session. S&P 500 futures are at the highs now, up 0.4% on the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Data may confirm inflation trend going into June meeting

As mentioned before, the ECB is waiting on wages data that will be released later in May before firming up any language on a rate cut in June. Until then, one can expect them to stick with the current narrative for the time being. Carry on as you will.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.