Amega is a global brokerage firm that has been
quickly rising within the world of finance.

Since
its inception, Amega’s goal has been to make trading simple and accessible to
traders of all levels, from beginner to professional. It accomplishes this by
introducing innovative technologies and providing streamlined services and
simple solutions to ensure a smooth experience from the moment of registration
to the closing of a trading position.

Regulation
– Security and transparency:

With a business
model that makes sure the client comes first, Amega has built a reputation
based on transparency and respect for regulation in order to ensure that the
rights of its investors are always protected. For the time being, Amega is
authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services
Commission, under investment license No. GB22200548, however, it is working
towards acquiring additional licenses that will help solidify it as one of the
most trustworthy brokerage firms in the world.

Amega takes great
pride in making sure that client data, as well as their funds, are secured
behind multiple layers of protection and works only with reputable payment
solutions that are known for their safety and speed of execution.

Ensuring
equal treatment:

In an effort to
make trading more fair for all investors, Amega has abolished dated notions
such as VIP accounts, which promote better services only for clients who can
afford higher investments. Instead, Amega focuses on offering the same
excellent market conditions to all clients, regardless of the amount of their
investment

Promoting
freedom in trading strategies:

Amega
always measures its success by the success of its investors. As such, it firmly
believes that every trader should have access to the tools and strategies that
can afford them a better chance of fulfilling their potential. For this reason,
Amega encourages investors to use any trading strategy they believe can provide
them with an edge in the markets, including scalping, hedging, and even trading
robots (Expert Advisors).

By not imposing
limitations or bans on trading strategies, Amega offers a trading environment
where anyone can thrive.

Constant
Evolution:

As
a client-driven brokerage firm, Amega constantly evolves in order to add more
diversity to its extensive portfolio of tradable assets, as well as
implementing new technologies, features, and incentives to keep traders
motivated and allow them to reach beyond their limitations. Some of these
features include:

Loyalty
Cashback Program:

Amega
offers volume-based cashback for every single trade regardless of
the market direction. This initiative allows traders to better manage their
risk, compensate for spreads, and enhance their potential profitability. The
rewards earned from the Loyalty program can be withdrawn as physical cash once
the minimum withdrawal amount required is reached.

Amega
Bonus:

When
it comes to enhancing the equity of its investors, Amega offers an optional bonus of up to 150% of the deposit amount.

Contests:

Amega
periodically holds competitions in both the live markets and on demo accounts
to provide traders with the opportunity to test their skills and strategies and
the incentive to improve on them. These contests most often offer rewards in
the form of cash prizes or additional bonuses.

Global
Payment Solutions:

Amega
offers a diverse array of payment solutions and processors that cater to
clients from all over the world. These include a number of different methods
that can be used for deposits and withdrawals, including:

• Bank cards
• Wire Transfers
• E-Wallets
• QR Codes
• Crypto-Fiat.

These
methods offer fast and secure transactions from anywhere in the world.

Diverse
Accounts for every need:

Amega
offers three different account types that offer something different and cover
the needs of even the most demanding traders.

• Standard Account: The primary
  account type that offers excellent market conditions and benefits such as
  Cashback and the option of a deposit bonus,
• Raw Account: Offers ECN
  conditions, including spreads starting from 0 pips. A highly requested account
  type that is generally a fan-favorite. Deposit bonus is optional.
• Islamic Account: A swap-free
  account that is unique in its simplicity. There are no requirements for proof
  of religion or long waiting periods. With Amega, Islamic accounts can be
  created with just a few clicks. Also offers an optional deposit bonus.

Asset
Classes offered:

Amega
offers a number of tradable assets, making sure to add even more options as
demand rises.

Tradable
asset classes include:

• Forex (Currency Pairs)
• Stocks
• Indices
• Precious Metals
• Energies
• (Agricultural) Commodities

Outreach:

Since
the beginning, Amega has been active in many expos and trade fairs around the
world, including places like Thailand, Vietnam, and South Africa.

Amega
has also had the honor of hosting a number of successful seminars and webinars
with some of the biggest names in the industry from these countries.

The
ongoing relationship with some of the leading experts in the trading world is a
testament to the way Amega approaches its responsibility to investors and the
high quality of services it provides.

Market
updates and educational material

Amega wants
to make sure every client meets his full potential as an investor. This is why
it releases various articles and educational emails from the official “Amega
Geek” that help provide insight into the markets and serve as a base for
understanding various aspects of trading. Amega always encourages its clients
to learn about trading in their own ways and practice their skills and
strategies on a Demo account before jumping into the live markets.

Support:

Amega
has a dedicated support team that is ready to assist with any questions via
live chat, email, or call. They even offer a callback service, as well as a
comprehensive Help Center, which includes an evolving library of helpful
articles that cover everything from registration to actual trading. The
implementation of an automated assistant in the live chat ensures 24/7 support
in multiple languages.

Partnership:

Amega’s
award-winning Partnership Program offers custom conditions
tailor-made to the needs of each individual IB or affiliate, as well as one of
the most generous reward schemes in the market.

By
understanding the importance of a good IB/affiliate, Amega aims to create
long-lasting and mutually beneficial partnerships.

The
partnership program is separated into two types:

• The Revenue Share (RS) program
  which offers rewards based on the volume generated by referrals from their
  trades

and,

• The Cost Per Action (CPA) Program,
  which offers rewards based on the number of referrals who are onboarded.

Awards:

Amega
has had the distinct honor of receiving numerous awards that reflect its
outstanding services, as well as the constant improvement it undergoes. These
awards include:

• Rising Star in Forex (by World
  Business Outlook)
• Most Transparent Broker (by the
  Forex Broker Alliance)
• Best IB program (World Finance
  Awards)
• Best Islamic Account (World Forex
  Awards)

Conclusion:

Amega is constantly proving its commitment to
excellence through actions that speak louder than words.

By
providing a safe and transparent trading environment for investors of all
levels, constant upgrades that keep it at the top of its game, excellent market
conditions, and services that bring out the highest potential in its clients,
Amega has become a perfect example of what a broker should be.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Last
Friday, the Dow Jones diverged with the other major indices as the market
finished the day negative. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to the
upside given the pickup in economic data with even the leading indicators
turning around. There are still risks on the inflation front though, but the
market looks confident that even if we see some short-term reacceleration, the
Fed will just keep rates steady and if the economy is able to support them,
then it might be even better. Nonetheless, a hot CPI report could provide a
pullback, so that would be something to watch out for.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the
daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones is now at a key trendline, and
this is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the
trendline to position for new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position
for a pullback into the 37777 support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that
the price has been breaking resistances and retesting them before going up in a
perfect textbook manner. We can also notice that the price is now retesting one
of those resistances now
turned support where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This
is where we will likely find the buyers bidding up the price while the sellers
will want to wait for a break to the downside to confirm the pullback into the
37777 support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action with the Dow Jones consolidating between the
38550 support and the 38800 resistance. This looks like a market primed for a
big move as soon as we get a breakout on either side.

Upcoming Events

This week is relatively light on the data front with the
US CPI report being the main highlight. We start tomorrow with the release of
the US CPI where the market will want to see if there are indeed signs of a
reacceleration or not. On Thursday, we will get the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PPI and the
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

With the focus being on big US data this week, Treasuries will continue to stay under the spotlight once again. The rebound in 10-year yields since the non-farm payrolls is now turning the attention back to the January ceiling near 4.20%. For today, 10-year yields are down slightly by 1 bps to 4.175% but all eyes are on the US CPI data tomorrow.

That could be what bond sellers are looking for in raising the bar above the highlighted level of 4.20%. If so, that will have spillover impact to broader markets surely on the week.

Just keep in mind that the inflation numbers tomorrow isn’t the only big US data on the agenda this week. There will still be retail sales on Thursday, followed by producer prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday as well.

If yields are to turn lower and back away from the 4.20% mark towards 4% and below again, that should drag the dollar down along with it. As for risk trades, the S&P 500 is hoping for that to solidify a clear break above 5,000 from last week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The upcoming week will be packed with economic events, but it will start with bank holidays in Japan and China due to the National Foundation Day and the Spring Festival, respectively.

On Tuesday, New Zealand will release its inflation expectations quarter-on-quarter (q/q) data. Last month, two-year ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.76%. While this remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) 2% target, short-term expectations have seen a more pronounced drop, but long-term expectations (5 years ahead) have been much stickier. The continued strength in domestic inflation remains a concern for the RBNZ so the bank will closely monitor this survey to assess if the downward trend continues.

The focal point of the week will be the U.S. inflation data. Expectations suggest a 0.3% increase in core CPI month-on-month (m/m), compared to the previous 0.3%; a 0.2% rise in CPI m/m, down from the prior 0.3%; and a projected drop in CPI year-on-year (y/y) to 2.9% from 3.4%. While inflation in the U.S. appears to be moving in the desired direction overall and it will likely reach the Fed’s target of 2% eventually, concerns remain over the high levels of core inflation which ended the year at 3.9% from 5.7% at the start.

Although headline inflation is seeing a slowdown, attributable in part to declining gasoline prices and only moderated price increases for groceries, core inflation — which excludes food and energy prices — remains uncomfortably high for the Fed. The market has pushed back its expectations for rate cuts from March to May and this can shift even further depending on future data, for example to June.

The U.K. inflation data expected Wednesday will provide further insights into future monetary policy decisions by the Bank of England (BoE). At the previous meeting, the Bank surprised with a more hawkish stance, noting that while there are indications of decreasing inflation, it remains way above target and more time is needed to see progress. Some analysts speculate that the tightening cycle has ended, but rate cuts won’t happen very soon. The current market expectation is for rate cuts to start in August.

Projections for this week’s data are for headline inflation to increase to 4.2% from 4.0% y/y while core inflation is expected to rise to 5.2% from 5.1%. Although expectations are for the inflation downtrend to resume in the future, the BoE is currently fighting with persistent inflationary pressures.

On Thursday, Australia will get the employment change and unemployment rate data. At the last meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates unchanged and stressed that: „The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks, and a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out.“

Inflation levels remain concerning, but many analysts argue that the tightening cycle ended. However, rate cuts are off the table for the near future.

The latest data suggests that the labor market in Australia is cooling down with supply and demand being more balanced. Analysts point out that the data for November and December was influenced by seasonal patterns, but going forward the labor market should see some softening. Westpac analysts expect an employment change of +15K for January, which would be a below-trend pace of growth.

The unemployment rate is likely to rise from 3.9% to 4.0%. Westpac argues that January is the most seasonal time of the year for the labor market and since the reopening from COVID-19 there were two dynamics that played an important role during this time in previous years: One is the fact that individuals found it easier to change jobs leading in an increase in „marginally attached workers“ after the holidays who were previously unemployed; and the second is the recovery of tourism which led to more workers taking time off over the holidays.

„January’s data should hence be interpreted carefully, given the risk that one–off dynamics may cause large swings in hours worked or unemployment,“ the Westpac analysts said.

Later on Thursday, we expect the U.S. retail sales data m/m. Last month, retail sales figures printed above expectations, but for this week’s release analysts anticipate a drop in core retail sales from 0.4% to 0.1% and a drop in retail sales from 0.6% to -0.2%.

Preliminary credit card spending data suggests a rise in January spending levels, but analysts from Wells Fargo expect a spending moderation as the year progresses due to softening in the labor market. „The unique factors of excess liquidity and easy access to cheap credit are tales of the past in the story of consumption,“ they said.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at www.forexlive.com.

Today is pretty much a placeholder as traders are all waiting on the US CPI data tomorrow. That is a good enough reason for price action to trend more sideways to start the week. And that is precisely what we’re getting so far today. The dollar is keeping steadier but the changes on the day are leaving a lot to be desired.

EUR/USD is still cornered by key technical levels just under 1.0800 as outlined here. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is holding just above 149.00 but not really finding much conviction to race towards 150.00 yet. Then, GBP/USD is trading back up to its recent consolidation range of 1.2600 to 1.2800 and awaiting its next move.

As for the commodity currencies, USD/CAD saw a test of its January highs rejected last week and is now holding just under its 200-day moving average of 1.3475. And AUD/USD is trading in and around the 0.6500 mark with topside limited by its own 100-day moving average at 0.6535 for now.

In other markets, US futures are flattish and not offering much help on the day. As for Treasuries, 10-year yields are down just 1 bps to 4.177% and still holding below the key technical line near 4.20%.

There’s some poking and prodding overall, so it is now up to the US CPI data to deliver the next set of hints for markets.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Tuesday:
  Japan
  PPI, UK Labour Market report, Switzerland CPI, German ZEW, US NFIB Small
  Business Optimism Index, US CPI.
• Wednesday:
  UK CPI,
  Eurozone Industrial Production.
• Thursday:
  Japan
  GDP, Australia Labour Market report, UK GDP, UK Industrial Production,
  Switzerland PPI, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, US Industrial
  Production, US NAHB Housing Market Index, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI,
  PBoC MLF.
• Friday:
  UK
  Retail Sales, Switzerland Industrial Production, US PPI, US Housing Starts
  and Building Permits, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Tuesday

The UK Unemployment Rate is expected to
tick higher to 4.0% vs. 3.9% prior.
The markets are likely to focus on wage growth with the Average Earnings
ex-Bonus seen at 6.0% vs. 6.6% prior, while the Average Earnings including
Bonus expected at 5.7% vs. 6.0% prior. The data will influence the market’s
pricing with a miss bringing rate cuts forward.

The Switzerland CPI Y/Y is expected at
1.6% vs. 1.7% prior. The inflation rate has been is the SNB’s 0-2% target
range since last summer and although the central bank expects a short term
increase, Chairman
Jordan said that their base case
scenario is that inflation should average below 2% this year.

The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.0% vs.
3.4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 3.8% vs. 3.9% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.3%
vs. 0.3% prior. This is going to be the most important report for the week and,
as it’s been the case for the prior releases, it will influence the market’s
pricing with a miss bringing rate cuts forward and a beat pushing them backword.

Wednesday

The UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 4.2% vs.
4.0% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at -0.3% vs. 0.4% prior. The Core CPI
Y/Y is expected at 5.2% vs. 5.1% prior. The last
report surprised to the upside which
prompted a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. The BoE is
particularly focused on services inflation, so that would be the most important
metric to watch for. Again, a downside surprise should bring rate cuts
forward, while another upward surprise is likely to push them backword.

Thursday

The Australian Unemployment Rate is
expected to tick higher to 4.0% vs. 3.9% prior with 30K jobs added in January
vs. -65.1K in December. The last
report surprised to the downside with a
hefty contraction in full-time employment. Citing RBA’s Governor Bullock, the
central bank is “very, very focused” on employment but unless we get some
notable surprise, it’s unlikely to change much for the RBA.

The US Retail Sales M/M are expected at
-0.1% vs. 0.6% prior, while the ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.4%
prior. The last
report surprised to the upside with the
Control Group coming in at a strong 0.8% vs. a previous positively revised 0.5%
reading. US Retail Sales have been strong for several months, but they are
expected to be weaker in January due to negative weather effects.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 220K vs. 218K prior,
while Continuing Claims are seen at 1878K vs. 1871K prior.

The PBoC is expected to keep the MLF rate
unchanged at 2.50%. The central bank surprised
recently by cutting the RRR by 50bps vs. 25 bps expected and sparked a rally in
the stock market (although most of the gains were
erased in the following weeks). The PBoC will have an opportunity to surprise
the markets again with a cut and this time trigger a more sustained and
positive reaction.

Friday

The US PPI Y/Y is expected at 0.7% vs.
1.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs. -0.1% prior. The Core PPI
Y/Y is expected at 1.6% vs. 1.8% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.1%
vs. 0.0% prior. This report is unlikely to be that much market moving given
that the focus will be on the US CPI on Tuesday.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Sunday features the quintessential American cultural event — the Super Bowl.

The game itself and its importance in American culture hint at what makes America what it is, and why US stock markets are at record highs as the rest of the world falls further behind.

The fairy-tale version of United States excellence leans on high-minded ideas — freedom, democracy, capitalism, a rules-based economic order, a magical scroll from the Founding Fathers.

That’s all bullshit.

Modern America stands for one thing and operates on one single principle: Win.

This Sunday is Super Bowl 58 (or LVIII in a nod to Rome). I’d argue that all the past 58 years of American economic dominance comes down to a creeping, evolving and now dominant philosophy built on winning as the singular guiding light in nearly all aspects of life.

What makes America unique in the empires of history is the slight tweak in philosophy. Past empires aimed to dominate and control; American just wants to win. Now sometimes that requires tapping into the $886 billion defense budget for some old fashioned dominance and control but the wisdom of America is that it realizes this is an expensive game that has been the downfall of many empires.

To use a schoolyard analogy, America doesn’t want to beat everyone else so badly that they quit, start their own game, or collectively turn against the US. America wants to keep everyone playing the game but always making sure it has a comfortable lead. There has to be an illusion of a reasonably fair playing field or it all falls apart.

Perhaps the real genius of the US has been in convincing the world that it is a fair game. Or that all of those old-fashioned high-minded ideas are what guides American government and business when it’s one simple thing: Win at all costs.

Seeing as football is on the agenda this weekend, here’s a quiz: What do the greatest football coach of all time and this year’s college football national champions have in common?

The answer: They cheated.

Both were caught red-handed cheating to win. As were the Houston Astros and, just Friday the New York Mets (Yes those are the same Mets owned by hedge fund billionaire Stevie Cohen who was caught insider trading).

What else do all these examples have in common? They effectively got away with it.

In a culture of winning, all that matters at the end of the day is wins. If you ask them, they’d probably tell you they only cheated more effectively than the others.

Now in sports it’s disgraceful, I don’t want my kids looking up to cheaters, but business is business. It’s ruthless.

The two quintessential businessmen of the last 40 years — Bill Gates and Steve Jobs — both admittedly stole their best early ideas from Xerox PARC.

Jobs first debuted the graphical interface and then Gates quickly copied it, leading to this famous exchange.

„You’re ripping us off!“, Steve shouted, raising his voice even higher. „I trusted you, and now you’re stealing from us!“

But Bill Gates just stood there coolly, looking Steve directly in the eye, before starting to speak in his squeaky voice.

„Well, Steve, I think there’s more than one way of looking at it. I think it’s more like we both had this rich neighbor named Xerox and I broke into his house to steal the TV set and found out that you had already stolen it.“

Meanwhile, the current world’s richest man — Elon Musk — has a long history of bending the law. It’s not particularly notable that top businessmen look for an edge anywhere, what’s notable is how the US tolerates it so long as you’re a winner.

Cheating is ok, so long as you win; so long as you’re sending up spaceships, redefining the automobile industry, or popularizing computers. And who could argue against it? The benefits of what those men have done for civilization far outweigh whatever ethical, and even legal, transgressions that might have been involved.

By the same token, the US winning doesn’t mean everyone else loses; just the opposite. A richer planet is a place where American companies have more consumers to sell to. The beauty of the system is that it grows the global economic pie and ultimately delivers incredible innovations globally. Hardly a person alive hasn’t benefited greatly from the American system, it’s a marvel.

Still, the American-style capitalism part of that bargain though only works perfectly fine on one condition: American companies win. Just like back in the school-yard, America will change the rules of the game until it wins. It will cheat on treaties, subsidies, litigate, persecute, lie and cheat to keep its companies on top, or at least in the game.

I have no doubt that a large part of the American spying apparatus is dedicated to industrial espionage and passing those secrets to US companies (and protecting those companies from other countries trying to do the same) — the ROI on those operations is undoubtedly spectacular for taxpayers. It’s hardly a conspiracy, as it’s precisely what Edward Snowden revealed.

Huawei may or may not have been spying on you but there is compelling evidence that the dramatic steps to get them out of the western world was an orchestrated campaign more about economic security than military security.

The same treatment is coming for TikTok and BYD. Foreign companies Nokia, Nortel, Siemens, Blackberry and Alstrom were all well-documented victims of industrial espionage, some by the US, some by others, some unknown. Yet I find it awfully coincidental that American companies came out ahead. But state-sponsored winning is still winning.

That’s not to say that China isn’t stealing everything it can get its hands on. It is. They understand that game.

But American is three steps ahead. They see how the game is also changing before anyone even realizes it’s being played. The US isn’t trying to limit Chinese access to Nvidia chips only because China will use them in military hardware. It’s trying to limit access to invention. The era of people investing things is dead. Every breakthough in the future will come from AI and that means that whoever has the best chips owns the future.

I worry about the side effects of a win at all costs culture.

The clannish dedication to football-style winning has devolved into politics and — worse yet — voting. People increasingly support their team no matter what.

I’d argue that the entire political story of this century is explained by Republicans briefly believing their own free-market ethos for a few weeks in 2008. That resulted in the worst American economic calamity in generations and led to the rise of the Tea Party, which started as a fiscal protest group then morphed into a protectionist populism that is undermining the illusion of a level playing-field.

Donald Trump is deeply unpopular in much of the world, yet he won the Presidency in the United States and is on track to do it again. He’s undoubtedly a conman and huckster yet he’s rich and famous. It’s that kind of winning that resonates in America.

But the bigger investing lesson of America’s winning philosophy is that it’s not because of politicians, it’s in spite of them. What industry has come to dominate markets and returns over the past 20 years? Technology — the least-regulated part of the American economy and the best one. It’s the one where win-at-all-costs flourishes best.

So all this to say one thing: if you want to play the game, you need to understand how the game works. Many parts of the world think the name of the game is collective welfare or social cohesion or harmony with nature (and maybe in the big picture it is). But while Europe is regulating, the US is innovating — and winning.

If you’re here, the game you’re in is investing. So when you’re considering where in the world to invest, forget comparing national P/E ratios. What you want to invest in is winners. In business that means America. That’s why I’ll never write a post about the downfall of the dollar or US capital markets.

Enjoy the game.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Governor of the Bank of Italy and hence European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta spoke on Saturday, saying that „the time for a reversal of the monetary policy stance is fast approaching.“

The ECB have already stopped raising rates, the last was in September when the Bank raised its interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility to 4.50%, 4.75% and 4.00% respectively.

More:

• „What should be discussed now are the conditions to start monetary easing, while avoiding risks to price stability and unnecessary damage to the real economy“
• says the policy board will „need to consider the pros and cons of cutting interest rates quickly and gradually, as opposed to later and more aggressively, which could increase volatility in financial markets and economic activity“
• „Any speculation on the exact timing of monetary easing would be a sterile exercise“
• inflation is falling as quickly as it rose
• strong growth in nominal wages are being offset by declines in other costs to firms
• doesn’t see a high risk of inflation impacts from Red Sea issues, but acknowledged the risk of further escalation in the region

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canada added 37.3K jobs in January compared to 15K expected. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.9% as labor force participation also slipped.

„Although labour market
conditions remain looser than they were a year ago, today’s data certainly won’t speed up the path to a first interest
rate cut from the Bank of Canada,“ CIBC wrote after the report.

One caveat to the report was that it was tiled to part time jobs at +49K rather than full time at -12K with much of the jobs growth from government jobs. That’s part of an ongoing trend:

„The number of private sector employees
rose by only 7K, and has increased by only 1.6% on a year-over-year basis. That is in contrast to a 4.2% rise in public
sector payrolls,“ CIBC wrote.

Another notable quirk is that population growth in the month was +125K, which has dragged the employment to population rate to the lowest since Jan 2022.

Some of these shifts explain why the loonie wasn’t able to hold onto its initial gains on Friday.

CIBC maintained its call for the first rate cut to come in June but now sees the BOC ending the year at 3.75% compared to 3.50% previously. The current overnight rate is 5.00% and the first cut is 76% priced in for Jun with the market priced at 4.25% at year end.

„The unemployment rate isn’t rising as quickly as previously expected given the generally
sluggish trend in GDP, although a stabilisation or rebound in participation, combined with only modest employment
growth, could still take the jobless rate above 6% by mid-year. That said, today’s data confirm that the Bank won’t be in a
rush to cut interest rates, and we maintain our expectation for a first move in June. Given indications from today’s data
and previously released GDP figures that the Canadian economy is in somewhat better shape than previously expected“

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Week Ahead 12th-16th February

• Mon: BoC SLOS, Indian CPI (Jan), Export/Imports (Jan), Holiday: China (New Year), Hong Kong, Tokyo
• Tue: OPEC MOMR, Swedish Unemployment (Jan), UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), Swiss CPI (Jan), EZ/German ZEW (Feb), US CPI (Jan), NFIB (Jan). Holiday: China (New Year), Hong Kong
• Wed: Indonesian Presidential Election, UK CPI (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Dec), EZ Employment (Q4), Japanese GDP (Q4), Holiday: China (Spring Festival)
• Thu: IEA OMR, Australian Employment (Jan), UK GDP (Dec/Q4), EZ Trade (Dec), US Import/Export Prices (Jan), IJC (w/e 10th Feb), Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan), Industrial Production (Jan), Business Inventories (Dec), New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Holiday: China (Spring Festival)
• Fri: CBR Policy Announcement, UK Retail Sales (Jan), German WPI (Jan), US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Jan), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Feb), Holiday: China (Spring Festival)

Note: Previews are listed in day order

UK Employment/Wages (Tue)

Expectations are for the unemployment rate in the 3-month period to December to come in at 4.0% with headline wage growth in the 3M/YY in the same period seen declining to 5.8% from 6.5%, while the ex-bonus metric is seen cooling to 6.0% from 6.6%. The prior release saw the unemployment rate hold steady at 4.2%. However, since then, as part of the ONS’ Labour Force Survey re-weighting, the unemployment rate in the 3-month period to November is now estimated at 3.9%. On the wages front, headline earnings growth slowed to 6.5% from 7.2%, and the ex-bonus metric slipped to 6.6% from 7.2%. Note, the upcoming release will see the ONS resume publishing its Labor Force Survey. Analysts at Investec notes, however, that data “provided so far are still based on a smaller-than-desired sample of responses,” adding that efforts by the ONS will take time to filter through. As such, markets will remain sceptical over the reliability of the data. Investec thinks employment could contract in December by circa 33k, and wonders whether weaker activity data in H2 was factored into hiring decisions. Note, the earnings metrics will not be subject to methodological changes and will therefore likely take greater precedence, particularly given the emphasis on the data by MPC members. On which, Investec suggests that declines in Y/Y growth will primarily reflect base effects.

Swiss CPI (Tue)

SNB Chairman Jordan has noted that while he expects inflation to increase given VAT, rents and electricity, it should not surpass the 2.0% mark. Alongside acknowledging the likely short-term increase, Jordan emphasised that inflationary pressures are declining. The January release does not include an update to the quarterly rental price index, which will next be published alongside February’s inflation number. The last print (Dec.) was hotter than expected at 1.7% and a slight surprise against the SNB’s forecast for a 1.6% Q4 average. January’s metrics will be closely watched and given the guidance from Jordan outlined above, a significant uptick, particularly if it occurs before the Feb. rental data, may well spark a hawkish reaction given the SNB’s unwillingness to allow CPI to deviate from the 0-2% band. Albeit, this will need to be assessed in the context that any increase is expected to be short-term and comes in the context of a broader cooling in Swiss inflation thus far. Furthermore, traders will also be mindful of recent marked CHF action and speculation that the SNB could act to offset some of the currency strength

US CPI (Tue)

The consensus view looks for headline CPI to rise +0.2% M/M in January (prev. +0.2%), and the core CPI measure is seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the rate seen in December. As always, the data will be framed in the context of the Fed’s policy function, where traders see lower inflation readings as a sign that the central bank could begin cutting rates, while any pickup in price pressures would see traders wager on a ‚higher for longer‘ playbook. Fed Chair Powell recently welcomed the notable easing of inflation, but reiterated that officials were attentive to risks that it posed to both sides of its mandate, and that ongoing progress was ’not assured‘. Powell warned that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much risked reversing the progress on inflation, and said officials wanted greater confidence that inflation was moving down sustainably (though he has conceded that if inflation were to move back up, that would be a surprise). Powell declined to offer a number of months that low inflation was needed to achieve this confidence.

RBNZ Inflation Expectations Survey (Tue)

Traders will focus on the Survey of Expectations (SoE) ahead of the 28th February RBNZ confab and in the context of ANZ’s recent call change – in which it forecasts 25bps hikes in both February and April taking the OCR to 6%, citing that the RBNZ may not be feeling like they’ve done enough to meet their inflation mandate. On the upcoming SoE release, ANZ suggests the metrics are likely to decline further, but any increase in the long-term measure would be a red flag. The prior Survey of Expectations (released in November) saw expectations for annual inflation one-year-ahead fall 57bps, from 4.17% to 3.60%, and two-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased 7bps from 2.83% to 2.76%, respectively. However, the mean five-year-ahead annual inflation expectation was 2.43%, an increase of 18bps from the prior quarter’s mean estimate of 2.25%, and the mean ten-year-ahead annual inflation expectation increased by 6bps to 2.28% from 2.22% in the previous quarter. Analysts at Westpac meanwhile suggest “With headline inflation dropping back, we expect that the slide in shorter term inflation expectations seen in recent months will continue in the RBNZ’s latest Survey of Expectations. That includes a fall in the closely watched survey of inflation 2 years ahead”, but the desk also says the importance of this particular measure has waned over time but softening in expectations will nonetheless be welcomed.

UK CPI (Wed)

Expectations are for the headline annual rate of CPI to rise to 4.2% Y/Y from 4.0%, with the core rate expected to cool to 5.0% Y/Y from 5.1%. The prior release saw an unexpected uptick in inflation with headline Y/Y CPI advancing to 4.0% from 3.8% while the All Services metric ticked higher to 6.4% Y/Y from 6.3%. The ONS noted that “the increase in the annual rate was largely the result of the increase in tobacco duty.” For the upcoming release, Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights the likely role played by base effects which will disrupt the recent run of downside surprises relative to MPC expectations. This is also expected to be visible in the service print, which it expects to rise to 6.9% Y/Y from 6.4%. Such an outturn would likely prompt further scepticism over imminent rate cuts by the MPC and push back market pricing which fully prices a first 25bps reduction in August, with 75bps of easing seen by year-end. That being said, one reason for optimism could come via food inflation which Pantheon expects to fall sharply in January.

Japanese GDP (Wed)

Q4 GDP Q/Q is expected at +0.3% (prev. -0.7%; range -0.1% to +0.9%), with the Annualised Q/Q seen at +1.4% (prev. -2.9%; range -0.3% to +3.7%), Private Consumption Q/Q at +0.1% (prev. -0.2%; range -0.4% to +0.3%), Capital Expenditures Q/Q at +0.3% (prev. -0.4%; range -0.2% to +1.3%), and External Demand Q/Q at +0.3% (prev. -0.1%; range 0 – 0.8%). Desks suggest any rebound in Q4 GDP should be modest based on recent data, whereby Industrial Production rose but missed expectations, whilst Retail Sales also unexpectedly declined, although the chip cycle and vehicle demand should support growth, according to some analysts. Analysts at ING said, “The gains in manufacturing output suggest 4Q23 GDP rebounded (0.3% Q/Q s.a.) from a mild contraction in 3Q23 (-0.7%), with the risk skewed to the upside.” The desk suggests that weak retail sales should be the main drag on overall growth, whilst “households’ cautious consumption behaviour could further discourage the Bank of Japan from raising its policy rates.” BoJ’s Deputy Governor Uchida recently suggested the Bank will not aggressively hike rates even after ending negative rates and added that Japan’s real interest rate is in deep negative territory and monetary conditions are very accommodative – “we don’t expect this to change in a big way” Uchida said.

Australian Employment (Thu)

The January Employment Change is forecast to have seen the addition of 30k jobs (prev. -65.1k), with the forecast range between +10k to +55k, according to Reuters. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have ticked higher to 4.0% (prev. 3.9%), with the analyst expectation range between 3.8-4.0%. The participation rate is seen steady at 66.8% (forecast range 66.7-67.0%). Analysts note that conditions in the labour market softened heading into the end of 2023, and Westpac posits that “the underlying trend continues to speak to labour demand easing from a robust level.” The desk forecasts a below-market jobs addition of +15k, with the unemployment rate at 4.0% and participation at 66.8%. Westpac however warns that “January’s data should be interpreted carefully, given the risk that one–off dynamics may cause large swings in hours worked or unemployment”, with the desk highlighting two dynamics that have played a significant role in labour market outcomes since the COVID reopening. The first dynamic being more opportunities to change jobs resulting in an “unexpected lift in the number of people who were not working but had a job lined up after the holidays”, and the second dynamic is the tourism recovery which has seen a greater number people take leave over the holidays.

UK GDP (Thu)

Expectations are for flat growth in the December GDP report. The prior release saw growth in November expand by 0.3% vs the 0.3% contraction in the prior month. Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that “output rebounded in consumer-facing sectors after spending in October was adversely affected by Storm Babet and the later-than-usual timing of school holidays in some areas” For the upcoming release, Pantheon (forecasts -0.3% M/M) says the report “will create a negative first impression, but the reality is the economy is now on the up.” If Pantheon’s forecast is realised, the consultancy suggests that it would contribute to a 0.1% Q/Q decline. Such an outcome would put the UK in a mild recession. However, given the shallowness of such a decline, it would be regarded in some quarters as something closer to “stagnation”. Although a 0.1% print would be below the MPC’s forecast of a flat reading, greater attention next week will likely instead be placed on CPI and wage metrics.

US Retail Sales (Thu)

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% M/M in January (prev. +0.6%), and the ex-autos measure is also seen rising +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.4%). Bank of America’s Consumer Checkpoint release for February showed consumer spending softening in January, with total card spending per household -0.2% Y/Y (prev. +0.2% Y/Y), and on a seasonally adjusted basis, its data suggests household spending -0.3% M/M. BofA says weather factors were largely to blame for the weakness, noting that when the weather was better, spending was resilient. It also said that in the later part of the month, total card spending per household rebounded across the country. „Despite the freeze, consumer confidence has rebounded as of late,“ it writes, „it does, however, remain relatively weak given the consumer has been resilient over the last year and the labour market has been solid.“ BofA says ’sticker shock‘ could explain that dynamic. Ahead, „as the rate of inflation comes down, this sticker shock should begin to fade, particularly as after-tax wages and salaries growth remains healthy for low and middle-income households in our data,“ adding that „consumers‘ savings buffers remain elevated and Bank of America’s latest Participant Pulse shows no significant sign that people are tapping into their longer-term retirement savings.“

UK Retail Sales (Fri)

Expectations are for headline retail sales to advance to 1.0% M/M in January from the 3.2% contraction in December. In terms of recent retail indicators, BRC’s retail sales indicator rose 1.4% Y/Y, with the accompanying report noting “easing inflation and weak consumer demand led retail sales growth to slow. While the January sales helped to boost spending in the first two weeks, this did not sustain throughout the month.” Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Consumer Spending report stated “overall retail spending grew 1.7% in January 2023, an uplift compared to the year-on-year growth of 0.6% in December 2023. This increase was predominantly driven by a rise in spend growth at supermarkets, which saw an uplift compared to December as consumers returned to their regular grocery shopping routines after the Christmas break.”

This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.

This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.