• To keep liquidity reasonably ample
• Proactive fiscal policy will be enhanced with improving efficiency
• Will make efforts in expanding domestic demand, spur consumption with potential
• Will promote steady decline in cost of social financing, enhance consistency of macro policy orientation
• To strengthen supervision of implementation of policies
• Necessary to accurately grasp policy orientation of next year’s economic work

It’s the usual commentary from Chinese authorities, in reassuring the public that they will do what is necessary to bolster the economy and keep the recovery on track.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Mobile banking has grown rapidly in recent years,
revolutionizing the way people interact with their finances. With the
increasing penetration of smartphones and the internet, mobile banking has
become a convenient and accessible method for individuals to manage their
accounts, make transactions, and access financial services. This article explores the rise and implications of mobile
banking, highlighting its benefits, challenges, and the potential impact it has
on various stakeholders.

The Rise of Mobile Banking

The widespread adoption of smartphones has played a crucial
role in the rise of mobile banking. With smartphones becoming an integral part
of our lives, financial institutions recognized the opportunity to provide banking services
through this ubiquitous device. As a result, they developed user-friendly
mobile applications that allow customers to perform a wide range of banking
activities anytime and anywhere.

To cater to the growing demand for mobile banking, banks
have invested significantly in technological advancements and security
measures. They have implemented state-of-the-art encryption protocols and
two-factor authentication methods to ensure the integrity of customer data and
protect against fraud. These initiatives have instilled trust and confidence in
users, driving the exponential growth of mobile banking applications.

Implications for Individuals

Mobile banking has empowered individuals to take control of
their finances conveniently. It eliminates the need to physically visit a bank
branch or use traditional online banking platforms. Now, users can seamlessly
access their account details, check balances, transfer funds, pay bills, and
even apply for loans using their smartphones. Such convenience saves time and
provides a hassle-free banking experience.

Furthermore, mobile banking apps offer real-time
notifications, enabling users to stay updated about their account activities
promptly. This enhances financial literacy and helps individuals make informed
decisions about their money management. Additionally, mobile banking increases
financial inclusion, allowing unbanked individuals to access basic financial
services, consequently promoting economic development and reducing poverty.

Implications for Banks

For banks, mobile banking presents both opportunities and
challenges. On one hand, it offers cost savings by reducing the need for
physical infrastructure and manual processes. Banks can streamline their
operations, as customers perform routine transactions through the mobile app,
freeing up staff to focus on more complex tasks. Moreover, mobile banking
allows banks to reach a wider customer base, particularly tech-savvy
individuals who prefer digital interactions over traditional methods.

On the other hand, increased reliance on mobile banking
presents security risks. As cyber threats continue to evolve, financial
institutions must invest heavily in robust security measures to protect
customer data. Any breaches or fraudulent activities can severely damage a
bank’s reputation, resulting in significant financial losses and loss of
customer trust. Therefore, banks constantly need to stay ahead of emerging
security threats and ensure the highest level of protection for their users.

Implications for Society

Mobile banking has far-reaching implications for society as
a whole. It contributes to the digitization of various sectors and accelerates
the transition towards a cashless economy. By enabling quick and seamless
transactions, mobile banking facilitates economic growth, reduces transaction
costs, and promotes financial stability. Society benefits from reduced
paperwork, increased transparency, and improved efficiency in financial
transactions.

However, the digital divide remains a challenge. Not
everyone has access to smartphones or reliable internet connections, which
limits their participation in mobile banking. Bridging this divide requires
collaborative efforts between governments, financial institutions, and
technology companies to provide affordable devices and internet connectivity to
underserved populations.

Conclusion

The rise of mobile banking has transformed the way
individuals manage their finances and interact with financial institutions. It
offers unprecedented convenience, accessibility, and empowerment to users.
However, banks need to continuously address security concerns, and societies
must strive towards bridging the digital divide to ensure that everyone can
benefit from the advantages of mobile banking. As technology continues to
advance, the implications of mobile banking will likely expand, shaping the future
of the financial industry and our everyday lives.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 90.7

This is the 23rd straight month that the index is below its 50-year average of 98. It reinforces the notion that small business sentiment is still rather languishing but not really pointing to any major recession-like signals at least. One thing to note is that NFIB says the net percentage of firms increasing employment has
been negative since March, with more firms decreasing jobs than
adding them.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Cryptocurrency has emerged as a disruptive force in the financial world,
challenging traditional banking systems and revolutionizing the way people
transact and store value. With the advent of Bitcoin in 2009, followed by an
explosion of other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Ripple, the impact on
traditional banking has been significant.

One of the key areas where cryptocurrency has had an impact
on traditional banking is remittances. Sending money across borders has
traditionally been a costly and time-consuming process, with intermediaries
taking a cut of the transaction. Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, offer a
decentralized and efficient method for transferring funds internationally. By
eliminating the need for intermediaries, cryptocurrencies can significantly
reduce the cost and time required for remittances, making it more accessible
and affordable for individuals.

Another notable impact of cryptocurrency on traditional
banking is the concept of decentralization. Unlike traditional banks, where
control and authority lie with centralized institutions, cryptocurrencies are
built on blockchain technology, which allows for peer-to-peer transactions
without the need for intermediaries. This decentralization removes the reliance
on centralized authorities, making transactions more secure and transparent.
Moreover, the use of blockchain technology enables immutable records of
transactions, reducing the risk of fraud or manipulation.

Furthermore, cryptocurrencies have also opened up avenues
for financial inclusion for the unbanked population. According to the World
Bank, around 1.7 billion adults remain unbanked globally, lacking access to
basic financial services. Cryptocurrencies can provide an alternative means of
storing and transferring value for these individuals, bypassing the need for a
traditional bank account. With just a smartphone and an internet connection,
anyone can participate in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, empowering individuals
who were previously excluded from the formal banking sector.

In addition to transforming individual financial
transactions, cryptocurrencies have also impacted the concept of fundraising.
Traditional banks have long been the primary source of funding for startups and
businesses. However, with the rise of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), companies
can now raise capital by issuing tokens or digital assets. This alternative
source of funding has democratized the investment landscape, allowing
individuals from around the world to participate in early-stage investments and
support innovative projects. While this method has its risks and regulatory
challenges, it demonstrates how cryptocurrencies are reshaping the traditional
banking model.

Despite these transformative aspects, it is important to
note that cryptocurrencies also pose challenges and risks for traditional
banks. The volatility of cryptocurrency markets and concerns over security and
regulation have made many banks cautious about involvement in the crypto space.
Some banks have even banned the use of credit cards for purchasing
cryptocurrencies, reflecting their hesitancy to embrace this emerging
technology fully. However, as governments and regulators develop frameworks to
address these concerns, traditional banks may consider adopting certain aspects
of cryptocurrencies to enhance their services and remain competitive.

In conclusion, cryptocurrencies have had a profound impact
on traditional banking systems, disrupting established norms and
revolutionizing the way people transact and store value. From remittances to
decentralization, financial inclusion to fundraising, cryptocurrencies have
brought about significant changes in the financial industry. As the adoption
and acceptance of cryptocurrencies continue to grow, it remains to be seen how
traditional banks will adapt and incorporate these innovative technologies into
their existing models.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Technical Analysis: Bears Seize Gold as Price Headed to 1978

In this video technical analysis of gold futures, we delve into the key levels that could significantly impact the price of gold, examining recent price fluctuations and forecasting future market trends.

Key Levels to Watch for gold futures

• 1978 Support Level: A crucial support level that has repeatedly tested its strength in the past. A breakdown below this level could signal a prolonged bearish trend.

• 20 EMA: A moving average commonly utilized as a support and resistance indicator. A significant dip below the 20 EMA could strengthen bear dominance.

• 2035 Resistance Level: Another key resistance level that has proven its resilience in previous price movements. A breakout above this level could spark a renewed bullish momentum.

Recent Price Action: Bears Assert Dominance

Gold’s price has exhibited a bearish trajectory in recent weeks, evident in the sharp decline from the recent high of $2159.2 to $1978. This trend suggests that bears have gained the upper hand in the market.

Gold Futures Price Predictions: Bears Pressuring Towards 1978

Based on our technical analysis and market insights, we anticipate that gold’s price is likely to continue its downward trajectory in the near future. We expect the price to test the 1978 support level and potentially break below it. Such a breakdown could pave the way for a further decline towards $1800 or even lower.

Conclusion: Bears Grip Tightly, 1978 in Sight

With bears firmly in control of the gold market, we believe that the price is likely to consolidate its bearish tendencies in the near term. We anticipate the price to test the 1978 support level and potentially breach it. Should this occur, a further decline towards $1800 or even lower could materialize.

Further Insights and Resources

For additional perspectives on gold futures, we recommend the following resources:

• ForexLive:https://www.forexlive.com: A comprehensive resource for forex and commodities market news and analysis.

• Kitco:https://www.kitco.com: A leading provider of gold, silver, and other precious metals market news, commentary, and pricing.

• GoldPrice.org:https://www.goldprice.org: A reputable platform for gold price data, charts, and analysis.

Risk Disclaimer: Trading gold futures is a speculative endeavor with inherent risks. Please exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Forex trading is not just about analyzing charts and making profitable trades. It requires a deep understanding of one’s psychological
state as well. A trader’s mindset plays a crucial role in their success in the
foreign exchange market. In this article, we will explore the basics of forex
trading psychology and the importance of having the right mindset.

Emotions: The Enemy of Successful Traders

Emotions can often cloud a trader’s judgment and lead to
poor decision-making. Fear, greed, and impatience are some of the common
emotions that can derail a trader’s success. Controlling these emotions is
essential to achieve consistent profitability in forex trading.

Understanding Fear and Greed

Fear and greed are often considered two sides of the same
coin in the trading world. Fear can make traders hesitant, causing them to miss
out on potential profitable opportunities. On the other hand, greed can push
traders to take excessive risks, resulting in significant losses. It is
important to strike a balance between these emotions to avoid making impulsive
decisions.

Patience: The Virtue of Successful Traders

Forex trading requires patience. Waiting for the right
opportunity to enter or exit a trade is crucial for success. Impatient traders
tend to jump into trades without proper analysis, increasing the chances of
losses. Developing patience is essential to avoid falling into this trap.

Dealing with Losses

Losses are an inevitable part of forex trading. Even the
most successful traders face losing trades. It is important to accept losses as
part of the process and not let them affect your confidence. Learning from
losses and adjusting trading strategies accordingly is the key to long-term
success.

Building Discipline and Consistency

Discipline and consistency are fundamental to successful
forex trading psychology. Following a well-defined trading plan and sticking to
it, regardless of emotions, is crucial. Deviating from the plan due to fear or
greed can lead to poor decision-making and ultimately, losses.

Developing a Positive Mindset

Having a positive mindset is crucial for success in forex
trading. A negative mindset can cloud judgment and lead to self-doubt.
Believing in one’s abilities and having confidence in the trading strategies is
essential for overcoming challenges and achieving consistent profitability.

The Importance of Self-Reflection

Self-reflection is an integral part of improving forex
trading psychology. Regularly analyzing past trades, identifying mistakes, and
working on personal growth are essential steps towards becoming a better
trader. It allows traders to learn from their experiences and continuously
improve their skills.

Seeking Support and Education

Forex trading can be a solitary activity, but seeking
support and education is vital for maintaining a healthy mindset. Joining
trading communities, attending seminars or webinars, and seeking guidance from
experienced traders can provide valuable insights and help traders overcome
psychological obstacles.

In conclusion, forex trading psychology plays a significant
role in a trader’s success. Managing emotions, developing patience, building
discipline, maintaining a positive mindset, and seeking continual improvement
through self-reflection and education are key elements to thrive in the forex
market. By mastering the psychological aspects of trading, traders can enhance
their overall performance and achieve long-term profitability.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The first ECB rate cut is baked in for April currently but market participants are not seeing the SNB move as quickly as their usual counterpart. The latest Reuters poll on economists is only showing the Swiss central bank to keep its key policy rate unchanged until at least September next year.

That comes despite Swiss inflation looking in much better shape than the Eurozone at the moment, as seen here.

Of note, the poll shows that 21 of 31 economists (nearly 70%) expect the SNB to keep rates unchanged until Q3 2024 with only 13 of 29 economists polled predicting that the first rate cut will only come in December next year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation is a critical factor that can have a significant
impact on investment portfolios. It refers to the general increase in prices over time,
resulting in the decline in purchasing power of money. In this article, we will
discuss the ripple effects of inflation on investment portfolios.

1. Decreased Real Returns

One of the primary ripple effects of inflation on investment
portfolios is the decreased real returns. Inflation erodes the value of money,
leading to a decrease in purchasing power. For example, if an investment earns
a nominal return of 5% per year but the inflation rate is 3%, the real return
would only be 2%. This implies that the investor’s actual purchasing power has
increased by just 2%.

2. Impact on Fixed-Income Investments

Inflation also affects fixed-income
investments such as bonds
and Treasury bills. These investments provide a fixed interest rate, which
means that as inflation rises, the real return on these investments decreases.
Investors holding fixed-income investments may find it challenging to maintain
their standard of living as the purchasing power of their interest income
declines.

3. Volatility in Equity Markets

Inflation can lead to increased volatility in equity
markets. Uncertainty regarding future inflation levels can create market
fluctuations and affect stock prices. Companies may face higher costs for raw
materials, wages, and other inputs, which can reduce profitability. As a
result, investors may experience greater market volatility, making it crucial
to diversify their portfolios and mitigate potential risks.

4. Impact on Real Assets

Real assets such as real estate, commodities, and
infrastructure can be directly affected by inflation. During times of high
inflation, the value of real assets tends to rise. Real estate prices may
increase, and commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products often see
price spikes. Investors who hold real assets within their portfolios may
benefit from these price increases, as they can provide a hedge against
inflation.

5. High-Interest Debt

Inflation affects borrowers and lenders differently.
Borrowers benefit from inflation as the value of their debts decreases over
time. For example, if a borrower has a fixed-rate mortgage, the real burden of
repaying the loan decreases as inflation rises. Conversely, lenders may suffer
as the purchasing power of the interest income earned from loans decreases.
Investors holding high-interest debt securities may witness a decline in the
real value of their investments.

Conclusion

Inflation can have far-reaching consequences on investment
portfolios. It reduces real returns, impacts fixed-income investments, creates
volatility in equity markets, influences the value of real assets, and affects
the dynamics of high-interest debt. Investors must carefully consider the
effects of inflation when constructing their portfolios to mitigate risks and
maximize returns in an inflationary environment.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Cryptocurrencies have been a hot topic in financial markets, garnering both
avid supporters and ardent skeptics. The rapid rise of Bitcoin and other
digital currencies has led to intense debates over whether they are a mere
bubble waiting to burst or a new standard in the world of finance. This article
aims to analyze the arguments on both sides and provide an informed perspective
on the matter.

The Bubble Argument

Critics argue that cryptocurrencies are nothing more than a
speculative bubble reminiscent of the dot-com era. They highlight the volatile
nature of these digital assets, with prices soaring and plummeting within short
periods. Critics also point out the absence of intrinsic value backing most
cryptocurrencies, suggesting that their worth is based solely on speculation
and hype.

Moreover, the proliferation of Initial Coin Offerings
(ICOs), where companies raise funds by issuing their own digital tokens, is seen as a symbol of the cryptocurrency bubble. Skeptics
argue that many ICOs lack a solid business model or product, relying solely on
the investor frenzy surrounding cryptocurrencies.

The New Standard Argument

On the other side, proponents assert that cryptocurrencies
represent a new standard in the financial world. They argue that these digital
assets offer several advantages over traditional fiat currencies. Firstly,
cryptocurrencies operate through decentralized blockchain technology, providing
transparency and reducing the need for intermediaries like banks. This opens up
possibilities for efficient and secure transactions across borders.

Additionally, proponents emphasize the potential for
cryptocurrencies to empower the unbanked population worldwide. With
approximately 1.7 billion adults lacking access to basic financial services,
cryptocurrencies can bridge this gap by enabling individuals to participate in
the global economy without relying on traditional banking systems.

Furthermore, advocates believe that the underlying
technology of cryptocurrencies, blockchain, has vast applications beyond
currency. Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize sectors such
as supply chain management, healthcare, and voting systems, among others. This
versatility makes cryptocurrencies more than just a speculative asset but
rather a transformative force in various industries.

A Balanced Perspective

To form a well-rounded view, it is important to consider
both arguments. While there are valid concerns about the volatility and lack of
intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies, their potential benefits cannot be
ignored. The technology behind cryptocurrencies has already demonstrated its
potential to disrupt existing industries and improve efficiency.

However, it is crucial to distinguish between legitimate
projects with solid fundamentals and those mere speculative ventures fueled by
hype. Extensive research and due diligence should guide investors in
distinguishing worthwhile investments from potential pitfalls.

In conclusion, cryptocurrencies remain a contentious topic
in today’s financial landscape. While the bubble argument raises valid
concerns, proponents firmly believe in the paradigm shift brought about by
these digital assets. As the industry matures and regulations are established,
only time will tell whether cryptocurrencies will stand as a bubble waiting to
burst or become the new standard in finance.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Tuesday: Japan
  PPI, UK Labour Market report, German ZEW, NFIB Small Business Optimism
  Index, US CPI.
• Wednesday: UK
  GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI, FOMC Policy Decision, New
  Zealand GDP.
• Thursday:
  Australia Labour Market report, SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision,
  ECB Policy Decision, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand
  Manufacturing PMI.
• Friday:
  Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, China Industrial Production and
  Retail Sales, Eurozone Wage data, US Industrial Production, PBoC MLF.

Tuesday

There’s no consensus estimates for the UK
jobs data at the time of writing except for the wage growth figures where the
average earnings including bonus are seen falling to 7.7% vs. 7.9% prior while
the average earnings excluding bonus are expected to come down to 7.4% vs. 7.7%
prior. As a reminder, the last
report beat expectations across the board
with strong job gains and steady wage growth. The market is now looking for
rate cuts, so a strong release is unlikely to prompt the market to price in
rate hikes, but it could definitely make it to price out some of the rate cuts.

The US CPI Y/Y is expected to tick down to
3.1% vs. 3.2% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.0% vs. 0.0% prior. The
Core CPI Y/Y is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% vs. 4.0% prior, while the
M/M figure is seen at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. As a reminder, the last
report missed expectations across the board
and triggered some strong reactions with the US Dollar selling off and the US
Equity and Bond markets rallying. The major central banks have ended their
tightening cycles, so the markets’ reaction function has changed from “strong
data equals more rate hikes” to “strong data equals less rate cuts”.

Wednesday

The FOMC is expected to keep the FFR
steady at 5.25-5.50% with no change to their quantitative tightening (QT). The
market’s focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot
Plot. In its September
projections, the Fed expected to
deliver one last rate hike in 2023 followed by 2 rate cuts in 2024. Given the
disinflationary trend and the softening in the general economic data in the
past few months, the chances for a rate hike in December quickly dwindled with
the market now not only 100% sure that the Fed is done with the tightening
cycle but even expecting 4 rate cuts in 2024 (it was 5 rate cuts beginning as
soon as March before the NFP report).

It’s very unlikely to see the Fed
projecting as much rate cuts as the market’s currently assumes, but I feel
like the market would be more than fine if the Fed projects 3 rate cuts in 2024
as it would be a nod that they indeed see their conditions being met earlier
than expected. Things got a bit complicated with the latest
NFP report where the unemployment
rate dipped to 3.7% vs. 3.9% prior and wage growth on a monthly basis came in
on the hotter side. The CPI report on Tuesday should shed some more light
though.

Consider this: if you were the Fed, would
you have the confidence to cut rates in Q1 2024 given such volatility in the
data and the fear of making the 70s mistakes (as they keep repeating)? Probably
not. We can certainly see 125+ bps of rate cuts in 2024, but it’s likely to
be aggressive in response to a hard landing. Thus, it would always be above
the expected market rate cut for a given meeting in order to create a faster
easing in financial conditions. And this fear around the 70s and the
uncertainty around the data might lead the Fed to cut too late or too slowly,
eventually triggering a „hard-er“ landing. I feel like this
uncertainty could transpire from their projections if they keep just 2 rate
cuts on the table, or worse, revise it to just one, especially if it’s
accompanied by lower inflation expectations.

Thursday

The Australian Unemployment Rate is
expected to tick higher to 3.8% vs. 3.7% prior with 10K jobs added. The last
labour market report showed an increase in
employment of 55K, which was much higher than expected although the bulk of it
was part-time jobs. The market is likely to react more to weakness rather than
strength as it’s looking forward to rate cuts in 2024. The RBA will see another
jobs report before its next meeting in February 2024.

The SNB is expected to keep interest rates
steady at 1.75% vs. 1.75% prior,
probably accompanied by the usual caveat that “it cannot be ruled out that
further tightening may become necessary”. The inflation
rate in Switzerland has been
within the central bank 0-2% target for many months on both the headline and
core measures, so they should actually start to
considering rate cuts in 2024.

The BoE is expected to keep the bank rate
steady at 5.25% vs 5.25% prior,
but this time there should be a bigger consensus among the MPC for no change,
although this is likely to be shaped by the UK Labour Market report on Tuesday.
As a reminder Greene, Mann and Haskel voted for a rate hike the last time. The
central bank will reaffirm once again their commitment to keep rates high for
as long as necessary to ensure that inflation returns to their 2% target. The
market expects 3 rate cuts in 2024 with the first one coming in June.

The ECB is expected to keep the deposit
rate unchanged at 4.00% vs. 4.00% prior.
The central bank is likely to repeat that they will keep rates high as long as
necessary to return to their 2% target. The rate cuts expectations for 2024
increased recently following the big miss in the Eurozone
CPI report and the ECB
member Schnabel’s comments where
she acknowledged that further rate hikes are rather unlikely after the latest
inflation data. The market now sees 150 bps worth
of rate cuts in 2024 with the first one coming as soon as March.

The US Retail Sales M/M are expected at
-0.1% vs. -0.1% prior.
Retail Sales have been strong for most of the year, although they contracted in
the previous month. The Control Group though, came in line with expectation at
0.2% with a positive revision to the prior figure. A strong report might make
the market to trim the amount of rate cuts expected in 2024 while a weak
release could increase them.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a more timely indicator on
the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, which shows us that layoffs have not yet picked up notably, but
Continuing Claims have been rising at a fast pace and that’s indicative of
people finding it harder to get another job after being laid off. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 221K vs. 220K prior,
while there’s no estimate at the time of writing for Continuing Claims,
although the last week’s number was 1861K vs. 1925K prior.

Friday

Friday is the Flash PMIs day where we will
see how business activity in the Manufacturing and Services sector is faring in
December:

• Eurozone Manufacturing
  PMI 44.5 expected vs. 44.2 prior.
• Eurozone Services PMI 49.0
  expected vs. 48.7 prior.
• UK Manufacturing PMI 47.5
  expected vs. 47.2 prior.
• UK Services PMI 51.0
  expected vs. 50.9 prior.
• US Manufacturing PMI 49.1
  expected vs. 49.4 prior.
• US Services PMI 50.5
  expected vs. 50.8 prior.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.