It’s still a hard one to read as to whether or not the 90-pip drop in USD/JPY earlier had to do with Tokyo intervention. The size and speed of the fall is suggestive but then why all of a sudden at 150.70 and not at a level just above 150.00 again like before? There are certainly some question marks about that. But since then, the pair has stabilised somewhat although traders are weary about pushing it too far above the figure level now:

There is the possibility that the drop was also triggered by the algos, with there being a note by BofA touting the possibility of the BOJ raising its 10-year JGB yield ceiling to 1.50% next week. That comes amid the rising pressure in bond yields globally. But in any case, the fact that USD/JPY is able to work its way back up above 150.00 is convincing enough to say that the drop isn’t one that matters all too much from a technical perspective – at least for now.

That being said, the dollar has since cooled off and is now trading mostly little changed across the board as the earlier gains are now looking rather tentative in European morning trade.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Australian dollar surrenders gains from stronger CPI data earlier
• What are the odds of a RBA rate hike next month now?
• Bitcoin consolidates gains after ETF ticker fiasco
• Germany October Ifo business climate index 86.9 vs 85.9 expected
• Eurozone September M3 money supply -1.2% vs -1.7% y/y expected
• Switzerland October Credit Suisse investor sentiment -37.8 vs -27.6 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 October -1.0% vs -6.9% prior
• IMF’s Georgieva: Inflation is still high
• Hong Kong to cut stamp duty on stock trading to 0.10% from 0.13%
• Japan reportedly eyes one-year income, resident tax cuts from June next year

Markets:

• USD leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures down 0.3%
• US 10-year yields up 1.9 bps to 4.859%
• Gold up 0.2% to $1,973.24
• WTI crude flat at $83.69
• Bitcoin up 1.0% to $34,253

It was a slower session today as traders didn’t have as much to work with in European morning trade compared to yesterday, though there were some decent moves all around.

The Australian dollar was the standout in Asia, advancing after a stronger-than-expected inflation report but gave it all back during the session and then some. This comes as stocks are pinned down, in particular tech shares after a mixed picture from Microsoft and Google’s earnings releases overnight.

AUD/USD was up to near 0.6400 earlier on but is now down 0.3% on the day to 0.6335 as the dollar also firmed slightly.

USD/JPY continues to hover just below 150.00 as Treasury yields keep steadier while EUR/USD is down 0.1% to 1.0575 from around 1.0590 earlier in the session. GBP/USD is marked down by 0.3% to 1.2125 as the greenback is keeping the advance from yesterday going, amid sluggish European PMI data.

Besides that, Bitcoin continues to consolidate gains after a bit of a fiasco with regards to its ETF ticker – keeping above $34,000 for now.

If anything else, watch out for the 5-year Treasury auction later as that could be a catalyst for a move in markets – more so than the BOC and Powell I reckon.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Today,
The Open Network Foundation (TON Foundation) has announced a strategic alliance with Mantle Network, a
leading Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) Layer 2 solutions provider. This
agreement positions Mantle Network as a principal ally to TON Foundation
towards more interoperable EVM-compatible Layer 2 blockchain capabilities on
TON.

A
wrapped version of $MNT, $jMNT, is now accessible for trading and liquidity
provisions on STON.fi, a cross-chain decentralized exchange (DEX). This wrapped
token allows for easier interactions and integrations between Mantle and TON.
$jMNT also streamlines access for fluid and expansive trading capabilities
between networks.

This
comprehensive agreement goes beyond token integration as the two entities will
utilize the @community_bot, a Telegram-native toolset for communities, to serve
as an education and information distribution platform. This initiative will
connect users in Mantle’s Telegram channels and Mantle Ecosystem project
channels directly to TON’s thriving community on Telegram. By fostering mutual
information exchange and enhanced community interactions, both communities will
benefit while building a Web3 ecosystem in Telegram for the messaging
platform’s 800+ million monthly active users.

„This
initiative with Mantle Network bridges the gap between our communities,
establishing a more interconnected and interoperable Web3 ecosystem for
Telegram’s large user base, said Justin Hyun, Director of Growth at TON
Foundation. „Together, we are equipping users across both ecosystems with
the most simple cross-chain experience possible.”“We are thrilled to find a
common purpose with TON Foundation through a strong alliance that will allow
the core competency of each to shine and bring the greatest benefits to both
communities,” said Jordi Alexander, Chief Alchemist of Mantle. “As TON
Foundation’s principal ally towards advancing EVM-compatible Layer 2 blockchain
capabilities on TON, we will work hand in hand with TON to help realize the
vision of an interoperable multichain future that puts the users at the
center.”

About
TON Foundation

The Open
Network Foundation (https://ton.foundation/) is a non-profit organization
founded in Switzerland in 2023. TON Foundation is 100% funded by the community,
acting in the community’s interests, and supports initiatives aligned with The
Open Network’s mission.

About
The Open Network (TON)

The Open
Network (TON) is putting crypto in every pocket. By building a Web3 ecosystem
in Telegram Messenger, TON is giving billions the opportunity to own their
digital identity, data, and assets.

About
Mantle

Mantle Ecosystem
comprises an Ethereum layer 2 (L2) — Mantle Network, a decentralized autonomous
organization (DAO) — Mantle Governance, one of the largest on-chain treasuries
— Mantle Treasury, and an upcoming Ether (ETH) liquid staking product — Mantle
LSD: all built on Ethereum. Mantle token is the unified product and governance
token of the ecosystem. Mantle’s first core product is Mantle Network, an
Ethereum L2. Mantle Network strives to be compatible with the Ethereum Virtual
Machine. Mantle Network’s modular architecture separates transaction execution,
data availability, and transaction finality into modules — which can be
individually upgraded and adopt the latest innovations. Mantle Network is the
first L2 to partner with ETH restaking protocol EigenLayer for the data
availability module. By adopting a rollup architecture, Mantle Network is
secured by Ethereum. As the world’s first DAO-spawned L2, Mantle Network is
pioneering a vision for the mass adoption of token-governed technologies.
Mantle token ($MNT) powers Mantle Network as its native gas token and ecosystem
growth token, and serves as the governance token of Mantle Governance. All
future Mantle products will likewise be initiated by the Mantle token holder
community through vote and powered by Mantle token. To support the next
generation of innovators, builders, and developers, Mantle is growing its
ecosystem via Mantle Grants Program and Mantle EcoFund, a catalyzed capital
pool of $200M.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Tickmill, the renowned
multi-asset broker, has reinforced its commitment to client security by
securing an insurance policy for client funds. The broker partnered with
Lloyd’s and obtained comprehensive insurance coverage for its clients‘ funds,
providing a safety net of up to $1,000,000 in the event of unforeseen and
extreme circumstances.

While Tickmill has
always been at the forefront of safeguarding client assets, this latest
initiative introduces an additional layer of protection, one that sets it apart
from many brokers in the market. The insurance policy, brokered with the
prestigious Lloyd’s, is a testament to Tickmill’s dedication to its clients‘ funds
protection.

Tickmill already has
several measures in place, including stringent regulatory compliance, robust
finances, vast liquidity, and tight scrutiny of partnering banks. This new
insurance policy, however, serves as the ultimate reassurance for clients, even
in the most improbable and unforeseeable events.

„At Tickmill, we
believe that our clients‘ peace of mind is paramount. We have always taken
extensive measures to protect their investments. This insurance policy is a
testament to our commitment to their funds’ security. Our clients can trade
with confidence, knowing that Tickmill will always go the extra mile to protect
their interests,“ Sudhanshu Agarwal, Executive Director of the Tickmill
Group, commented.

The insurance policy is
subject to terms and conditions, for more information about Tickmill’s
commitment to client security and the new insurance policy, click here.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The copper market remains
in a tight spot. The Chinese data continues to improve amid more support from
the Chinese officials while the future outlook of the global economy is
weakening given the tighter financial conditions and some early cracks in the labour
markets. The technicals should be more helpful here as we have defined levels
and breakouts will point to the most likely direction.

Copper Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that Copper after
breaking out of the symmetrical triangle got
stuck in a descending triangle defined by the support around
the 3.55 level and the top trendline. We
recently got a fakeout below the support and a quick bounce back up as the
buyers continue to target the top trendline amid resilience in the global
economy and the improving Chinese data.

Copper Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that Copper is now
trading in a range between the 3.55 support and the 3.68 resistance where we
have also a trendline for confluence. We can
expect the sellers to lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to
target the support and ultimately a downside breakout. The buyers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to increase the
bullish bets and target the major trendline around the 3.75 level.

Copper Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a good support zone around the 3.63 level where we have the confluence
with the trendline and the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is where we can expect the
buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to target the
resistance and eventually a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target the support.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims data
with the market likely focusing on the Continuing Claims figures as they’ve
missed expectations two times in a row already and might be a signal that the
labour market is weakening. Weak jobless claims could weigh on Copper, while
good data is likely to support it. On Friday, we will get the US PCE report
which is unlikely to change anything for the near-term policy outlook.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -6.9%
• Market index 165.2 vs 166.9 prior
• Purchase index 127.0 vs 129.8 prior
• Refinance index 354.0 vs 347.6 prior
• 30-year mortgage rate 7.90% vs 7.70% prior

Yikes, the average rate of the most popular US home loan is now up to near 8% – the highest since September 2000 – and that is continuing to put a drag on mortgage activity. This time, purchase activity is the one slumping and is offset slightly be refinancing activity on the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Flailing German economy fails to breath confidence in the euro
• France October flash services PMI 46.1 vs 44.6 expected
• Germany October flash manufacturing PMI 40.7 vs 40.0 expected
• Eurozone October flash services PMI 47.8 vs 48.7 expected
• Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -28.1 vs -26.6 expected
• UK October flash services PMI 49.2 vs 49.3 expected
• UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected
• ECB’s Lagarde to EU officials: Inflation fight is going well
• ECB’s Makhlouf: Far too early to tell consequences of Middle East situation
• RBA’s Bullock: Australian dollar relatively stable, not a concern for policy
• We are going to see higher interest rates for longer – Larry Fink
• Loan demand by firms and households continue to decline sharply – ECB survey

Markets:

• AUD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields up 2.3 bps to 4.861%
• Gold down 0.6% to $1,961.07
• WTI crude up 0.3% to $84.75
• Bitcoin up 4.1% to $34,458

Falling yields were the highlight yesterday and it threatened to be that way early on today as well. 10-year Treasury yields dipped to a low of 4.80% before recovering to around 4.86% currently and that took the dollar along with it for the ride.

Instead, the euro was the highlight as it slumped during the session after a weak set of PMI readings from France and Germany in particular. EUR/USD held around 1.0690 early in the session before reversing to hit a low of 1.0623 and is holding just above that on the day.

The single currency remains the weakest performer while risk trades are keeping the turnaround from yesterday and pushing higher today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% while European indices are holding modest gains so far on the day.

That is helping to keep the aussie underpinned, with AUD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6365. Besides that, other major currencies remain more muted although we did see GBP/USD fall off as well from a high of 1.2280 to 1.2210 on the session after is own PMI data and dollar recovery.

In other markets, gold is seen tracking lower and looks poised for back-to-back daily losses for the first time in three weeks. Perhaps there is some further unwinding of safety flows at play there. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to surge with over 4% gains now to $34,458 after briefly clipping the $35,000 mark earlier in the day.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurozone economy to stagnate in the next few quarters
• Risks to inflation have become more balanced
• Fiscal impasse is starting to turn into a headache

The fear for the euro area now is that as the economy skirts around the risk of a recession, a second-round effect of inflation pressures would basically put them in a rather dire spot. Stagflation, anyone? Lagarde is trying to sound optimistic but surely she can’t say with unequivocal certainty that the ECB has done enough.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The near-term chart shows the change in prospects for gold as price now falls below the 100-hour moving average (red line). That indicates that the near-term bias is now more neutral as sellers wrestle back some control:

The fall comes after gold tested the highs from June and July around the region of $1,983-87 on the daily chart. And with a lack of significant escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict since the weekend, we are perhaps starting to see safety bets come off the boil even more this week.

If gold keeps with losses today, it will be the first back-to-back daily decline for the precious metal since the start of October.

That could be a turning point for sellers to try and gather more momentum for a downside push in the sessions ahead. The next key test will be the 200-hour moving average (blue line) first around $1,935.24 currently before moving on to the 100 and 200-day moving averages around $1,922-31 next.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

US:

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
• The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
  and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
  end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024.
• Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
  they will proceed carefully.
• The US CPI beat expectations on the headline
  figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the market’s
  pricing barely changed.
• The labour market remains pretty resilient as seen once again last
  week with the beat inJobless Claims, although continuing claims missed for a second
  time in a row.
• The US Retail Sales last week beat expectations by a big
  margin with positive revisions to the prior figures, suggesting the consumers’
  spending remains resilient.
• Fed Chair Powelland other FOMC members continue to highlight the rise in long term yields as doing
  the job for the Fed and therefore they are expected to keep rates steady in
  November as well.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

New Zealand:

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged while
  stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
  further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive.
• The New Zealand inflation data last week missed expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s stance.
• The latest employment data surprised to the upside.
• The Manufacturing PMI continues to slide further into
  contraction, but the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The RBNZ is expected to keep the
  cash rate steady at the next meeting.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD pair
is massively diverging with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the broken support turned resistance which
might end up being a classic “break and retest” pattern. If the price continues
higher and breaks above the resistance though, we will get a confirmation of a
reversal and the NZDUSD pair might rally all the way back to the trendline.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent
break above the minor trendline and the moving averages
crossover switched the bias more to the upside. This might be just a complex
correction though and the sellers are likely to step in at the resistance with a
defined risk above the level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and
start targeting the major trendline around the 0.5980 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we’ve
been diverging with the MACD for quite some time. The first target of the
divergence, in case the price breaks above the resistance, is the swing high
around the 0.5925 level. A lot will depend on how the price reacts to the key
resistance. A break below the recent higher low around the 0.5838 level should
change the market structure on this timeframe back to bearish and likely
increase the downside momentum leading to a drop to new lows.

Upcoming Events

Today we will get the latest US PMIs where strong
figures should support the greenback, while weak readings are a bit more
complicated as the USD might weaken due to falling Treasury yields but also
strengthen due to recessionary fears. On Thursday, we will see the US Jobless
Claims figures, while on Friday we get the US PCE report which is not expected
to change anything for the Fed at this time.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.