The US dollar is at the highs of the day on a number of fronts and that’s pushed EUR/USD down 42 pips to 1.0671, breaking yesterday’s low.

The catalyst might be fixed income, where US yields are up 1-3 bps across the curve and at session highs. The RBA hike may have convinced some that global central banks will need to hike further. For what it’s worth, Fed fund futures still price just a 25% chance of a hike in June, though that rises to 80% in July.

A further leg of US dollar strength would need some help from stock market selling.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Last Friday’s NFP report surpassed expectations once again,
extending the impressive streak to 14 consecutive beats. However, when we look
closely at the report, the specific details weren’t very positive. The
unemployment rate experienced a significant increase from 3.4% to 3.7%, marking
the largest month-over-month rise since the pandemic began. Additionally, the
average number of hours worked per week slightly decreased, which is often an
indication that employers are preparing for potential layoffs.

Overall, the report
provided something for everyone to interpret. Optimists saw solid job growth
but also recognized that the higher unemployment rate and soft average hourly
earnings could indicate a less tight labour market, potentially reducing
inflationary pressures. The decrease in average weekly hours worked might be
seen as a return to the pre-pandemic trend.

On the other hand, pessimists
focused more on the specific details rather than just the headline number since
trends are generally more important than absolute figures.

Yesterday, the US ISM Services PMI came in much lower than expected at
50.3, narrowly missing the contraction territory. The employment sub-index fell
into contraction, and the prices paid sub-index decreased substantially,
returning to the level observed in May 2020. As a result, the market adjusted
its expectations for further rate hikes from the Fed on the dovish side.

Gold Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold has
recently bounced from the key trendline and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The rally found resistance at the red 21 moving average where the sellers
pushed the price back towards the trendline. The moving averages are
still crossed to the downside so the bias remains bearish, but given the recent
disappointment in the US data we may expect more upside from here as the market
reprices rates expectations on the more dovish side. If the price breaks below
the trendline, it will open the door for a selloff into the 1800 level.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4
hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the resistance at 1984
stalled the rally in gold and the price sold off in the aftermath of the US NFP
report. This was a curious reaction given that rates expectations were lowered
and the details in the report weren’t that good. Nevertheless, gold found
support again at the trendline and rallied yesterday as the US ISM Services PMI
missed expectations. The price is now finding resistance at the red 21 moving
average, but if the price breaks above the recent high at 1964, we should see
another test of the 1984 resistance.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1
hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the short-term price action and the 1964 high being the key level to
break for the buyers to extend the rally towards the 1984 resistance first and
make new higher highs next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking lower and ultimately get lots of conviction if gold breaks
below the 1934 support zone.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD tried to move higher in the early Asian session and heading into the European morning session, but could not sustain upside momentum above its 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart below). Weaker data ahead of Germany (factory orders) and EU (retail sales) helped to push the currency back to the downside. Buyers turn to sellers on the move back below the 200 and 100 hour moving averages which are near converged at 1.0713 area.

The subsequent move to the downside is now trading to new session lows, and has traders looking toward the swing low from last Thursday and a swing low from intraday on Wednesday near 1.0660. Will below that level and traders will target the cycle low (May low) at 1.06351.

It would now take a move back above a swing area above 1.0704, but really the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 1.0711 and 1.07158 to tilt the technical bias back to the upside.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was +11.3% (revised to +12.3%)
• Non-residential -34.6%
• Residential -6.1%

That’s a sharp decline but comes after a very strong month. Still, the overall value of permits at $9.6 billion is the lowest since December 2020, highlighting a looming construction slowdown.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

On Sunday, the OPEC+ delivered some more bullish
news for the oil
market as it looks like they want to keep prices above $70 level. In fact,
Saudi Arabia announced that it will make additional voluntary production cut of
1 million bpd starting in July for one month, although it can be extended based
on the market outlook. All the other members will extend their production cuts
through 2024.

The OPEC+ supply cuts are
undoubtedly bullish in the short-term but we have already seen that in a
contractionary business cycle the demand side weighs a lot on the oil market as
the latest surprising cut was completely faded and oil prices tumbled to $64
from the $83 high.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that WTI Crude Oil
opened with a positive gap at $75 and filled it soon after during the APAC
trading session. Oil has faced lots of selling pressure around this $72-$74 resistance zone and
we will see in the next days if the OPEC+ decision is enough to boost Oil
prices or if we get another selloff like the last time. The target on the
upside would be the $83 high, while the target on the downside would be the $64
low.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that WTI Crude Oil
has pulled back to the nearest support level at $72. Here the buyers may lean
on the blue 8 moving average to then
push to the upside and extend the rally past the $75 high. The sellers, on the
other hand, are likely to pile in here defending this resistance zone and
targeting the $64 low.

WTI Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has filled the gap and pulled back to its original Friday’s closing
price. Here we can find the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level. We should find buyers leaning on
this support zone targeting new highs. Conversely, the sellers will look to
extend the fall in case the price breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci level and
possibly invalidate the entire bullish setup if the price falls below the $71
level.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

The firm argues that while overall dollar usage is still holding within historical estimates, the usage was more „bifurcated under the hood“. While the dollar’s share of traded currency volumes is just a little off record highs, at 88%, there are other evident signs of de-dollarisation elsewhere.

Of note, the firm notes that the dollar’s share as part of global central bank FX reserves has dropped to a record low of 58%. That number is still by far and out the largest in the world but it has been slipping, not really helped by the challenges the dollar is facing in dealing with the likes of Russia and China in particular.

An interesting thing to note in that pointer is that gold now comprises 15% of reserves as compared to just 11% five years ago.

Besides that, JP Morgan also highlighted a decline in the dollar’s role as part of global exports – in which the US share is now down to a record low of 9%. Meanwhile, for all the talk of countries wanting to be less dependent on China, their share has actually increased to a record high of 13%.

Going back to the first paragraph on traded currency volumes, the euro is the biggest loser there as its share shrunk by 8% in the last decade to a record low of 31%. The yuan is once again a winner in that category, rising to a record high of 7%.

However, JP Morgan says that the progress by Beijing to internationalise the yuan has been limited and that is unlikely to change much given the China’s capital controls.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Higher Treasury yields continue to play its part in underpinning the dollar today, as we continue from where we left off on Friday last week. The only difference is that equities aren’t as enthusiastic but the technical picture for stocks is looking optimistic (see the charts below). Here’s a snapshot of the Treasuries space at the moment:

• 2-year yields up 4.9 bps to 4.551%
• 5-year yields up 6 bps to 3.901%
• 10-year yields up 5.4 bps to 3.746%
• 30-year yields up 4.9 bps to 3.931%

In turn, that is helping to keep the dollar bid this morning with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.0685 and USD/JPY in particular up 0.3% to 140.35 at the moment. But the moves are roughly similar to what we had at the start of the session here.

Only the pound has slipped a little further alongside the antipodeans, with GBP/USD down 0.5% to 1.2385 and AUD/USD now down 0.4% to 0.6585 on the day.

Elsewhere, gold tested its 100-day moving average once again and is seen holding above that – at least for now.

In the equities space, the overall mood remains tentative with US futures keeping little changed in general. S&P 500 futures are flat, Nasdaq futures down 0.2%, and Dow futures up 0.1%. However, the breakout move from Friday does provide scope for optimism:

The S&P 500 is looking towards testing the highs from August last year while the Nasdaq itself has broken that barrier, as tech stocks could be angling towards a stronger run to the upside on the back of the AI boom.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Spheroid Universe, a futuristic Metaverse that augments the real world in every part of the Earth, is announcing that their token, SPH, will officially be listed on MEXC today, on June 5th. Founded in 2018, MEXC (also known as MEXC Global) is a rapidly-growing cryptocurrency exchange with more than 6 million users in over 200 countries, including the USA, UAE, Canada and Australia. MEXC is regularly featured as one the top exchanges globally for trading volume. The exchange offers one of the widest ranges of cryptocurrencies with over 1,500+ coins listed on the platform.

It brings a wealth of experience listing top-performing tokens, with a reach that only a handful of exchanges in Crypto have, helping Spheroid Universe go global. The move follows the company’s recent launch of ChatGPT-powered artificial intelligence (AI) Avatars that will inhabit the world around us via augmented reality (AR). This ground-breaking development will deliver breakthrough opportunities across numerous business platforms – from e-commerce and retail to advertising, sales, general customer, and consumer interactions and more.

Commenting on the announcement, Andrey Almiashev, CEO, of Spheroid Universe said: “Launching our token on MEXC will place SPH firmly on its trajectory towards growth as well as will bring the bandwidth that aligns with our aspirations for Spheroid Universe – putting Spheroid Universe as a leader in the metaverse projects, and the entire Extended and Augmented Reality industry.”

Spheroid Universe aims to be the battle-tested AR/XR platform across the entire landscape of web3, XR/VR and metaverse industries, ultimately helping to define the internet experience of the future.

Brands and organizations that are looking to create an immersive digital experience will make Spheroid Universe the place where they can truly demonstrate innovative experiences.

About Spheroid

Spheroid Universe (https://spheroiduniverse.io/), an Extended Reality Metaverse company. It’s a platform for developing Extended Reality projects. The technological basis of the platform is the Spheroid XR Cloud and the Spheroid Script programming language designed for AR/XR creation.

SPH is the native token of the Spheroid ecosystem that fuels the activities of the platform. It can be exchanged for Spaces (virtual lands of the Spheroid Universe), used for advertising in AR/XR, placing content, and for various platform services. Among the products powered by SPH there is Spheroid Earth – an open global project for creating Earth 3D Digital Twin. For further details, please visit Spheroid Universe’s Official website or follow them on Twitter and Instagram.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Last Friday’s NFP report once again surpassed expectations,
maintaining an impressive streak of 14 consecutive beats on the headline number.
However, a closer examination of the report’s specifics reveals a less
remarkable picture. The unemployment rate experienced a significant jump from
3.4% to 3.7%, representing the largest month-over-month increase since the
beginning of the pandemic. Additionally, there was a slight decline in average
workweek hours, often signalling employers‘ inclination to reduce hours before
implementing layoffs.

Considering all factors,
this report offered something to satisfy different perspectives. The optimists
drew a positive outlook from the solid job growth, while the higher
unemployment rate and soft average hourly earnings suggested a decrease in
labour market tightness, potentially easing inflationary pressures. Some participants
may interpret the lower average weekly hours worked as a reversion to the
pre-pandemic trend.

On the contrary, the
pessimists focused more on the report’s details rather than the headline
number, recognizing that the trend holds greater significance than the absolute
figure.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, after bouncing from the key
32684 support, the Dow
Jones broke above the downward trendline and
extended the rally towards the swing high at the 33850 level. The moving averages are
about to cross to the upside, possibly signalling an imminent change in trend. If
the buyers manage to maintain the bullish momentum, the resistance at 33477
will be the natural target.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
overextended a bit as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average.
Generally, in such cases, the price consolidates or pulls back toward the
trendline to find a new equilibrium before the next move. This overextension comes
right when the Dow Jones is at the swing high resistance at 33854, which should
raise the probabilities of a pullback. The sellers are likely to pile in at
this swing high resistance with a tight stop just above it to target the 33300
support.

Dow Jones Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that a
good spot for new longs for the buyers would be the 33625 level. In fact, we
can find the confluence with
the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level, the red 21 moving average and an
upward trendline there. If that support zone fails, the buyers are likely to
retry at the 33300 level where there’s the confluence of the previous resistance turned
support and the broken downward trendline. The sellers, on
the other hand, will pile in at every downside breakout.

The market today is likely
to focus on the US ISM Services PMI report:

–
Given the impressive performance of the S&P Global
Services PMI in the previous month, there may be an anticipation for a favourable
outcome in the ISM report. If the data surpasses expectations, especially if
the prices paid sub-index indicates a lower value, we could witness a rally in
the Russell 2000 as market participants would expect a soft landing scenario.

–
Conversely, if the data disappoints expectations, it
could trigger market weakness, potentially leading to the above-mentioned
pullback or even a complete reversal.

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

Recap of a ForexLive previous 2023 yearly forecast and why watch 4400 on the S&P 500 emini futures

As we continue to explore the financial landscape of 2023, the spotlight remains firmly on the S&P 500. In this condensed follow-up to our previous analysis, we’ll take a unique approach to predicting this market’s trajectory, focusing specifically on the 4400 key level.

Revisiting Our Previous Forecast

In our earlier article, we delved into an eye-opening forecast for the stock market in 2023, utilizing the powerful tools of yearly candles and volume profile. We identified significant levels of support and resistance and assessed the distribution of trading activity over time.

This approach allows us to discern pivotal price levels that could influence the S&P 500’s performance. High purchasing activity at a particular price level, as indicated by the volume profile, often signals market optimism and potential future price increases.

Zooming In On the 4400 Key Level

As we advance in 2023, the 4400 mark emerges as a significant level to watch on the S&P 500. This point could serve as a critical resistance level, potentially triggering a sell-off if the price attempts to break through it. However, if the volume profile at this level shows high trading activity, it could also imply that the market is bullish, suggesting that prices may continue to climb.

Investors who purchased at highs during 2021 or 2022 could look to sell once the S&P 500 approaches this level, adding an element of volatility to the market. Therefore, careful monitoring of this key level could offer valuable insights into the S&P 500’s future direction.

Aiming For A Fruitful 2023

As we journey through 2023, staying abreast of these pivotal levels and understanding their potential impact on the S&P 500 is critical. Through careful observation and a readiness to adapt, we can better navigate the shifting market landscape.

For more insights and updates, consider visiting resources like ForexLive’s website. By staying informed, we can position ourselves for a prosperous 2023. Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results, and individual research and analysis are paramount.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.