Higher Treasury yields and less dovish Fed pricing has certainly helped with the pair’s recovery since Friday, with price now climbing back above 134.00 to its highest levels since 15 March last month.

Of note, the pair is hoping to crack through resistance from the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower in March, seen at 133.77, after the break above the 100-day moving average (red line) again at the end of last week.

That tees up a potential push towards 135.00 next, before buyers might reassess for any move back towards the 200-day moving average (blue line) – now seen at 137.12. The latter is a key level which helped to stop gains last month, all before the banking turmoil engulfed the market landscape.

All eyes will stay on the bond market though and for now, it doesn’t look like 10-year yields in the US are going to threaten a break lower under the key threshold near 3.30%. The banking crisis has ebbed and if traders start to come around to the idea that the Fed is indeed going to hold rates higher for longer, that’s an upside boon for USD/JPY.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In this article, we will explore wheat futures technical analysis and provide a price forecast based on current market trends. We’ll also discuss potential trading strategies and risk management for those interested in wheat-related assets.

Key Points for the wheat futures technical analysis video

• Wheat futures breakout of an ascending wedge on the 4-hour time frame
• Next probable target: 700 round number
• Potential retest and entry points for investors and traders
• Longer-term price movements and possible targets

Wheat Futures Technical Analysis: Breakout of Ascending Wedge

A recent technical analysis on the 4-hour time frame shows that wheat futures (ZW) have broken out of an ascending wedge. This bullish pattern suggests that the next probable target for ZW could be the 700 round number.

Possible Retest and Entry Points

Investors and traders may want to time their entries with a possible retest of the descending wedge, while being aware that it might not happen and they could miss their entry points. A balanced approach could be to scale into the trade, ensuring risk management while taking advantage of potential price movements.

Always trade at your own risk and consult ForexLive.com for additional perspectives on wheat futures technical analysis and price forecasts.

Wheat Futures on the Weekly Time Frame: Building a Base

Looking at the weekly time frame, wheat futures have experienced a strong downtrend from their all-time high of 1430.6, currently sitting about 52.3% below that level. However, the market may be starting to build a base and find support in an area that has seen consolidation and price reactions in the past. This could indicate an interesting area to bet on wheat building a base and potentially moving higher.

Potential Longer-Term Targets: 800 Round Number

If the base-building scenario plays out, traders and investors may consider aiming for a longer-term target of the 800 round number, close to previous highs. For those trading long, it could be worth leaving a portion of the position (e.g., 20% or more) to capitalize on a possible move towards 800.

Different instruments, such as call options, CFD contracts, or future contracts, can be used to play this potential longer-term move in wheat futures.

In summary, wheat futures technical analysis points to a breakout from an ascending wedge, with the next probable target being the 700 round number. Investors and traders should keep an eye on possible retest levels and entry points, as well as longer-term targets around the 800 round number. As always, trade at your own risk and visit ForexLive.com for additional views and insights on wheat futures price forecasts.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

MUFG Research maintains a short USD/JPY exposure (spot ref: 134:70) in its TOTW portfolio with a target at 129.00, and a stop at 138.50.

„We are maintaining a short USD/JPY trade idea. While there are risks of further increases in US short-term yields, we doubt USD/JPY will gain to the same extent of traction and see risks of the move higher petering out,“ MUFG notes.

MUFG also added a fresh short USD/CAD position (spot ref: 1.3375), with a target at 1.2950, and a stop at 1.3650.

„We’re adding a short USD/CAD trade idea based on recent developments we view as CAD supportive,“ MUFG notes.

For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Deposit outflows from the banking system have stabilized. Things have been calm but monitoring carefully
• Bank lending standards have tightened somewhat , may be more tightening to come
• Not seeing anything dramatic enough to significantly change outlook for moderate growth, strong labor market and easing inflation
• Over time, there is risk that financial system sanctions linked to dollar could ‚undermine the hegemony‘ of the US dollar
• Sanctions do create desire by China, Russia and Iran to find an alternative to dollar

I find it interesting that Yellen said outflows from the banking ’system‘ have failed rather than saying outflows from small banks have stabilized. Jim Bianco highlights that yesterday mega-cap US banks jumped and small cap banks fell 2.1% in a sign that money is flowing in one direction without leaving the system.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In this video, I look at the recent S&P 500 technical analysis and provide a price forecast based on the findings (spoiler: IMHO, we are headed to 4200). A surprising selloff occurred following a rally on Friday, and we’ll explore the reasons behind it while considering possible future price movements.

Key Points within the S&P 500 e-mini futures analysis video

• Yellow, green, and purple channels in S&P 500 e-mini futures technical analysis
• Recent sell-off triggered at the top of the green channel
• Upcoming resistance at 4178 and possible breakout scenarios

S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Channels and Touch Points

The S&P 500 e-mini futures technical analysis on the two-hour time frame shows three channels: yellow, green, and purple. The yellow channel starts with the first touch point and pivot low points on the 13th of March, featuring touch points at the bottom and others on the 22nd of March, April 3rd, and April 4th.

On Friday, the market rallied to create a second touch point with the pivot point on April 4th, leading to the formation of the green channel. The purple channel will also be followed in this analysis.

Sell-Off Triggered at the Top of the Green Channel

On the one-hour time frame, a sell-off was triggered at the top of the green channel after Friday’s rally. The trend line stopped the sell-off, and a new channel was formed with the bottom band of this trend line. Three touch points on the top were observed on the 12th and 13th of April.

Why Multiple Channels Matter

These channels and junctions are important because market participants, including trading algorithms and professional traders, are likely monitoring them. The dotted line represents the midpoint of the yellow channel, and the market is approaching 4178, which is also the top of the high on April 12th. This indicates potential sellers in the market.

Potential Future Price Movements I’m looking at

There are multiple possible scenarios for future price movements. One possibility is a drop, followed by a breakout of the channel to reach the top of the purple channel, close to the 4200 round number. Alternatively, the market may rally up to the purple top band and then follow a different path to reach the 4200 round number.

In either scenario, profit-takers may choose to take partial or full profits from previously profitable long positions. As always, trade at your own risk and visti ForexLive.com technical analysis for additional perspectives on S&P 500 technical analysis and price forecasts.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Major US stock indices close lower but recover about half of the day declines
• Gold tumbles and falls back below $2000, but rebounding
• WTI crude oil settles at $82.52
• What happens to when the Fed finally cuts rates?
• SNB’s Jordan: We can’t exclude that we may have to tighten again
• Baker Hughes oil rig count -2 at 588
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q growth rises to 2.5% from 2.2% last
• European indices close week with gains
• ECB’s Simkus: Core inflation is expecetd to peak next month or shortly afterwards
• Larry Fink says inflation unlikely to fall below 4% soon but I’m not so sure
• UMich US April consumer sentiment 63.5 vs 62.0 expected
• US March industrial production +0.4% vs +0.2% exp
• Waller Q&A: I don’t think we need to hike quite as high as in February
• ECB sources: Policymakers call for a full halt to QE reinvestment in H2
• Waller: Recent data show Fed hasn’t made much progress on inflation, more hikes needed
• Fed’s Goolsbee: Retail sales number might show some of the lag of mon pol
• US import prices for March -0.6% versus -0.1% expected
• US March retail sales -1.0% vs -0.4% expected
• The EUR is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar hangs on in there
• ECB’s Lagarde says expect euro area inflation to continue to fall
• Fed’s Bostic: Recent developments are consistent with us hiking one more time

Retail sales in the US were weaker than expectations but it was Fed’s Wallers comments which surprised the markets more. Waller said that recent data show Fed hasn’t made much progress on inflation, and followed that up with more hikes are needed. That was hikes…not another hike. So although the market has been tolerating the playbook that the Fed was to have one more hike, they were not thinking there would be multiple hikes left from the Fed.

Say it ain’t so.

Now Waller is typically more hawkish and perhaps he was sent out to take one for Chair Powell, and slow the S&P from heading to 4200. I am not sure the Fed wants to see stocks racing too far ahead as they try to ease the economic ship in for a soft landing. After all if the economy falls off the cliff as some see ahead, the implications for stocks could get uglier from loftier levels. Moreover, the debt market is also at odds with Feds thinking with 2 year yield trading above and below 4% today when the Fed is targeting 5.25% or more (according to Waller) and intent on not looking to ease until 2024 at the earliest. The disconnect is evident in the January Fed funds contract as well which is pricing in a fed funds rate of 4.47% (it was at 4.36% earlier in the day). Again the Fed is looking for a minimum of a high range for the Fed target at 5.0% -5.25%.

Waller at least slowed the stock and bond ships down a bit.

Later the Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary) came out and although sentiment remained high at 63.5 vs 62.0 last month, it was the inflation reading that caught most of the markets attention. That measure saw the 1 year inflation expectations rising sharply to 4.6% from 3.6%.

So in addition to Waller, the consumer is not buying the „happy days are just ahead“ for inflation. Having said that, this week the CPI and the PPI data were encouraging and the math of the next few months at least, imply that with a little luck – and some cooperation from shelter costs – a big chunk from the CPI headline at 5%, can be further eroded from headline and core inflation readings (see post here). The not so great part of that idea, is gas and oil prices are on the rise again and that can raise costs across many sectors of the economy (not just at the gas pump).

The implications of the news today in the currency market, was the USD was king and is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies (see ranking below). The NZD was the weakest followed by the AUD as risk-off sent those currencies lower vs most currencies (the USD was up 1% vs both those currencies).

Although the USD was higher across all the major currencies today, it is ending the trading week mixed vs the major currencies. The USD was weaker vs the following currencies

• EUR, -0.86%
• CHF, -1.26%
• CAD, -1.17%
• AUD, -0.71%

The USD was stronger or unchanged vs the following:

• JPY, +1.21%
• GBP, unchanged
• NZD, +0.68%

The US stocks today are ending the day down despite a good start to the earnings season from some banks. JPMorgan shares rose 7.55%, CItibank rose 4.78% PNC rose 0.36%, but Wells Fargo fell -0.05% after largely better than expected earnings.

For the major indices, although they closed off lows, they still ended the day lower:.

• Dow fell -0.42%
• S&P fell -0.21%
• Nasdaq fell -0.35%

For the trading week, all three indices did close with gains:

• Dow Industrial Average average rose 1.20%
• S&P index rose 0.79%
• NASDAQ index rose was the laggard with a modest gain of 0.29%

In the US at that market, yields reacted to the upside on the data/news with the two year yield back above the 4% level at 4.103%. A snapshot of levels at the end of the week shows:

• 2 year yield 4.103%, up 13.1 basis points
• 5 year yield 3.61% up 10.5 basis points
• 10 year yield 3.517% up 6.8 basis points
• 30 year yield 3.738% +4.9 basis points

For the trading week:

• 2 year yield rose 11 basis points
• 5 year yield rose 9.3 basis points
• 10 year yield rose 10.4 basis points
• 30 year yield rose 11.5 basis points

The price of gold/silver fell sharply today reacting to higher yields and stronger dollar:

• Spot gold fell $36.84 or -1.81% to $2003.43. For the trading week, gold prices fell $-3.62 or -0.18%
• Spot silver fell $-0.50 or -1.94% to $25.31. For the trading week the price still rose by $0.36 or 1.43%
• Crude oil rose $0.36 to $82.52 today. The high for the week reached $83.53. That is precisely where the 200 day moving average is currently located. Next week the 200 day moving average will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers – move above is more bullish. Stay below is more bearish. The low for the week reached the $79.37 this week. Overall, crude oil is ending the week up $1.82 or 2.26%.

Next week, CPI data from Canada, Japan, New Zealand, UK will all be released. The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes (they kept rates unchanged) will be released. The ECB will also release meeting minutes (raised by by 50 bps to 3.5%).

In the US, the Philly Fed and the Empire manufacturing indices will be released along with existing home sales and flash manufacturing/services PMI data.

On the earnings calendar, big names are still a week or two away from release. More financial institutions will dominate the calendar in the upcoming week:

Monday April 17

• State Street Bank

Tuesday, April 18

• Goldman Sachs
• BNY Mellon
• Bank of America

Wednesday, April 19

• Morgan Stanley
• bancorp
• Zions Bancorporation
• Citizens

Thursday, April 20

• Huntington
• Comerica
• KeyBank
• Truist

Starting the week of April 24, the earning shifts into high gear (subject to change) Below is a preview of what’s to come. Traders will be watching the projections going forward. If earnings estimates start coming down, the S&P and major indices could be in trouble:

Monday, April 24

• Coca-Cola
• Kimberly-Clark

Tuesday, April 25

• Alphabet
• PepsiCo
• Verizon
• UPS
• Raytheon
• Lockheed Martin
• GE
• 3M
• GM
• Chipotle
• Dow
• Snap
• Whirlpool

Wednesday, April 26

• Meta Platforms
• Visa
• AT&T
• Qualcomm
• Boeing
• ServiceNow
• General Dynamics
• Hilton Worldwide

Thursday, April 27

• Apple
• Microsoft
• Amazon
• Merck
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Intel
• Caterpillar

Thanks for your support. Have a great and safe weekend to all.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major US stock indices are closing the day lower but recovered nicely off of session lows.

The final numbers are showing

• Dow industrial average -143.22 points or -0.42% at 33886.48. The Dow industrial average was down -298.85 points at session lows..
• S&P index -8.58 points or -0.21% at 4137.63. The S&P was down -33.01 points at session lows.
• NASDAQ index -42.82 points or -0.35% at 12123.46. The NASDAQ index was down -139.72 points at session lows.
• Russell 2000 fell -15.52 points or -0.86% at 1781.15

For the trading week, the major indices are closing higher:

• Dow industrial average rose 1.2%, and is now up 4 consecutive weeks
• S&P index rose 0.79% and is up four of the last five trading weeks
• NASDAQ index rose 0.29%. It too is up four of the last five trading weeks
• Russell 2000 rose 1.52% for the week.

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This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of gold has tumbled today with the sharp rise in the USD today. The price moved down -$47.68 at session lows today. The price is currently down -$32.74 which is still down -1.60%. The current price is at $2007.40. The low reached $1992.59.

Looking at the hourly chart, the fall today extended below the 100 hour MA and then the 200 hour MA next at $2015.58 and $2010.74 respectively.

The low today stalled just ahead of the 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 22 low. That comes in at $1991.35.

What next?

The 200 hour MA will now be eyed as resistance (at $2010.74). Stay below is more bearish. Move above it and then the 100 hour MA at $2015.57 and given the recent volatility it will could „fast break the other way“ once again.

The USD is seeing some downward drift over the last 3 or so hours. That is certainly helping the corrective tones today.

For the trading week. The price is trading near unchanged on the week (down about -$0.50 or -0.02%). The high took the price up $41.74. The low took the price down -$25.27

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The price of crude futures settled up $0.36 at $82.52. The high price reached $83.12. The low price reached $81.76.

The price this week moved up $1.82 or 2.24%

The high price this week reached $83.53 reached on Wednesday. That happens to be the falling 200 day moving average currently. Staying below that moving average kept the sellers in play. Next week that level will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. If broken – and stay broken – it could be a prelude to a run toward the 38.2% retracement near the $90 level.

Conversely stay below and a rotation back toward the post OPEC+ gap low which came in at $79.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EURUSD selling continued into the morning session and in the process moved into a swing area defined by the 100 hour MA at 1.09664, and the 38.2% up at 1.09818. In between was the high from last week at 1.09728.. The low stalled at 1.09717 right near the middle of the support cluster.

The price has moved up to 1.0990 on the rebound.

Holding that area probably gives the buyers the control. The correction lower although fast DID hold the target area and the price remains above the 100 hour MA and the 38.2%. Those are two technical levels that would need to be broken at a minimum, if the sellers are to take more control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.