It’s quiet on trading floors around the world with Europe closed and the Americas on holiday.

Have a look at the economic calendar to see what’s in store next week.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It seems not long ago the earnings season ended, but it’s back again with the latest earnings rotation starting next Friday when JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citibank and PNC announce their earnings. The financials traditionally start the season and with the recent banking concerns, the market will be interested in how the top tier banks view the landscape, along with one of the top regional banks (in PNC).

This week, JPMorgans Dimon was in the headlines saying that the banking crisis raised the odds of a recession, and that the crisis is not over yet. He also added:

• Banking system is strong and sound
• We are seeing people reduce lending a little bit, cut back a little bit, and pull back a little bit

Looking ahead to the week starting April 17 (subject to change):

Monday April 17

• State Street Bank

Tuesday, April 18

• Goldman Sachs
• BNY Mellon
• Bank of America

Wednesday, April 19

• Morgan Stanley
• bancorp
• Zions Bancorporation
• Citizens

Thursday, April 20

• Huntington
• Comerica
• KeyBank
• Truist

The small regional banks will likely be more of interest to the markets.

Looking to the week of April 24 (again subject to change), that week will be filled with earnings from the big cap tech companies (amongst others):

Monday, April 24

• Coca-Cola
• Kimberly-Clark

Tuesday, April 25

• Alphabet
• PepsiCo
• Verizon
• UPS
• Raytheon
• Lockheed Martin
• GE
• 3M
• GM
• Chipotle
• Dow
• Snap
• Whirlpool

Wednesday, April 26

• Meta Platforms
• Visa
• AT&T
• Qualcomm
• Boeing
• ServiceNow
• General Dynamics
• Hilton Worldwide

Thursday, April 27

• Apple
• Microsoft
• Amazon
• Merck
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Intel
• Caterpillar

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a holiday-shortened day today and the reaction to non-farm payrolls was that good news is good news. S&P 500 futures closed early for the Good Friday holiday and finished up 9.5 points to 4141.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The details of the US jobs report were strong but the dollar has been unable to hold onto gains. Jobs were strong in the household survey but the establishment survey was pushed up by strong government hiring or would have missed estimates.

The numbers all landed in a holiday-thinned market and and that could be a factor as well.

In any case, the US dollar rallied broadly on the headline but has now given most of it back.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar is a touch higher across the board ahead of non-farm payrolls in what’s been uninspired European and Asian trading. It’s a holiday in much of the world today so that means skeleton staffs on FX desks. The bond market is closed but US bond and equity futures are trading until 9:15 am ET.

Overall, it will be a strange one but if there’s a particularly strong or weak report, I don’t think it’s a gamechanger. The larger risks are to the downside after some softer jobs data this week. Lower non-farm payrolls would get the market thinking that a hard landing is coming and that the Fed can head to the sidelines.

The next big release is March CPI on April 12.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The New Zealand dollar has showed some life in an otherwise-dismal trading session today. The quiet trading is no surprise with much of the world closed for holidays.

The schedule in Europe has been quiet and it’s an unusual one where the jobs report is released with most markets closed. Futures will trade for a short time after NFP and the FX market doesn’t close for holidays but bonds are shuttered completely.

Greg earlier highlighted recent instances of non-farm payrolls on Good Friday and the overall takeaway is that markets had time to digest and were subdued by Monday.

There is also my non-farm payrolls preview. Overall, I’d be loathe to trade this one in a thin market and I don’t see have even a very strong or very weak number can be a real gamechanger.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Market picture

The crypto
market lost 0.5% in 24 hours, bouncing back to $1.18 trillion. This level has
become the centre of gravity around which the market has been moving all week.
So far, it looks like a pause and consolidation but not a breakout.

Bitcoin has
fared better this time around, losing 0.4% and remaining stuck at $28,000 for
the past three weeks. Notably, there has been no deep correction or noticeable
upward bias during this time. Bitcoin’s rally has stalled in the area that
provided meaningful support in May and early June last year. An upside move
would be a significant milestone to restore long-term investor confidence.

On the other
hand, a deeper drawdown below $27.0K or even to $25.5K may be required before a
move higher, which would fully correct the rise from the early March lows and
clear the way to the upside.

News background

According to
CCData, trading volumes on centralised crypto exchanges reached $3.81 trillion
in March, the highest since September 2022. Trading volumes on the cash market
rose 10.8% to $1.04 trillion, while the derivatives market jumped 32.6% to
$2.77 trillion.

Cryptocurrencies
will reduce transaction costs for remittances by 97%, according to a study by
Coinbase. Americans sending money overseas collectively pay more than $12
billion in fees each year.

The market
capitalisation of the Tether stablecoin has surpassed $80 billion, rising by
$15 billion in the first three months of 2023 to a record high since May 2022.

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

I posted last month how the US non-farm payrolls had come in above estimates for 10 straight months previously and coming into today, it is 11 months in a row now that the data has beat expectations. That is quite an impressive feat.

The estimate this time around for the March figure is +239K on the headline, so we’ll see if there will be any further hiccups after the softer set of numbers from the US throughout the week so far.

But either way, don’t expect the start of the Easter break to be a quiet one even if most European (and other) markets are closed today. The Fed outlook, bond market focus, and dollar sentiment are all extremely sensitive factors impacting trading sentiment at the moment and they will all come into play via the jobs report later.

That will make for a dicey end to the week especially with the bond market sitting on edge.

• Preview: March non-farm payrolls by the numbers

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• There is a broadening trend where rising inflation is reflected in wages
• Job market tightening is laying the groundwork for wages to rise further
• Hopes that inflation target can be achieved together with rising wages

Kuroda’s term as governor of the Japanese central bank will come to an end tomorrow. It is rather unfortunate that they haven’t managed to achieve much else during his tenure, with negative interest rates and ultra easing policy being the cornerstones of what was needed amid economic and demographic challenges in the past decade.

But he is at least setting up the platform for his successor, Kazuo Ueda, to perhaps be able to launch Japan out of the existing policy cycle – something which looked like an impossible scenario before the Covid pandemic.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 77.77k

Compared to the same month last year, jobs cuts are up by 319% as this is the third straight month running that US-based employers have planned more layoffs than in the same month a year earlier. Challenger notes that:

“We know companies are approaching 2023 with caution, though the economy is still creating jobs. With rate hikes continuing and companies’ reigning in costs, the large-scale layoffs we are seeing will likely continue.“

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.