<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily chart below, we can
see that after the big and fast rally caused by the Silicon Valley Bank
collapse and the fall in real yields, gold has entered a consolidation near the
previous top. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>We can also notice that the price
is <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/“>diverging</a> with the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/“>MACD</a>, which is generally a signal of
a loss of momentum and we can generally see a pullback afterwards. The market
started to consolidate as the data after the banking crisis has not confirmed
weakness in the economy yet, on the contrary, the economic reports have been <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-marchus-services-pmi-538-vs-505-expected-20230324/“>stronger
than expected</a>. It’s likely that we will see a major pullback in
case the data keeps beating expectations. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>XAUUSD technical analysis</p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the recent pullback bounced from the 38.2% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. We can also see a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>symmetrical
triangle pattern</a>. The price can breakout on either side, so it’s
paramount to watch the economic data as an eventual breakout should lead to a
big move. Tomorrow, we have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>US Jobless Claims</a> report and it’s likely that we
will see weakness in gold in case the data beats and strength in case the data
misses. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the symmetrical triangle consolidation. Generally, it’s better
to sit out and wait for the breakout caused by a fundamental catalyst before
entering new positions. One can easily get chopped out in such environments. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/equities-shrug-off-the-early-optimism-20230328/“>Equities shrug off the early optimism</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-muller-it-is-still-possible-to-hike-rates-further-20230328/“>ECB’s Muller: It is still possible to hike rates further</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-i-dont-think-recent-bank-problems-are-causing-stress-in-the-uk-20230328/“>BOE’s Bailey: I don’t think recent bank problems are causing stress in the UK</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/france-march-business-confidence-103-vs-103-prior-20230328/“>France March business confidence 103 vs 103 prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eu-banking-regulator-eba-head-warns-risks-in-the-financial-system-remain-very-high-20230328/“>EU banking regulator (EBA) head warns “ risks in the financial system remain very high“</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>NZD leads, CHF lags on the day</li><li>European equities slightly higher; S&amp;P 500 futures flat</li><li>US 10-year yields up 3.6 bps to 3.563%</li><li>Gold flat at $1,957.33</li><li>WTI crude up 0.4% to $73.12</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.2% to $27,108</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It was a quiet session for the most part as markets are taking a bit of a breather, after having come to terms with the end of the banking turmoil. There were mixed tones across the board with equities seen higher early on before paring those gains while bond yields were initially lower in Asia, before turning higher in European morning trade.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar though was slightly lower throughout, struggling to find much of a footing but there was no major extensions to the ranges among major currencies since the handover from Asia trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.0830 from around 1.0815 earlier in the day while GBP/USD is up 0.3% as well to 1.2320 but fluctuating between that and 1.2290 for the most part. Meanwhile, USD/JPY moved up from 130.50 to 131.30 as bond yields recovered only to fall back to just below 131.00 at the moment.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The antipodeans are keeping higher and have been holding on to gains throughout, with AUD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6680 and NZD/USD up 0.6% to 0.6230 currently. Those levels are still keeping within the ranges we have seen in the past two weeks, so they aren’t really anything to shout about.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>While markets may be seeing the banking turmoil ebb, there is still some caution in the air as we look towards month-end and quarter-end trading alongside <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/its-still-about-the-inflation-watch-this-week-20230327/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>inflation data still to come</a> in Europe and US later in the week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>There may be more differing opinions at the next ECB meeting</li><li>Underlying inflation remains an area of concern</li><li>We must still be worried about upside inflation risks</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Compared to what we heard from Nagel, this probably sits better with the majority of policymakers at the central bank or at least the core viewpoint I would say.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The peak of the optimism today came right at the European open and since then, we are seeing a bit of a hiccup as stocks are unable to carry forward the slightly better mood from Asia. S&amp;P 500 futures are down 4 points, or 0.1%, currently:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, the bank index in Europe has also turned negative (-0.3%) after a decent start earlier in the day. Looking over to the major indices in the region, they have also pared their early gains seen <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equities-open-higher-to-start-the-day-20230328/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a> to be up by just 0.1% across the board now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There aren’t any major headlines as it just seems like investors are digesting the post-banking turmoil feels alongside some trepidation ahead of key inflation data later in the week.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=“MsoNormal“>On the daily chart below for AUDUSD, we can <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/LiveCharts?tvwidgetsymbol=FX%3AAUDUSD“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>see that after breaking above</a> the downward <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a>, the buyers started to have the
upper hand and even managed to breach the 0.67 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a>. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are on the verge of crossing upwards, which would be a bad omen for the
sellers. We can see how hard the sellers are fighting back by the long candlesticks
wicks above the 0.67 handle. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>Those were created as the Fed
delivered on expectations but sounded less hawkish, giving the buyers some
conviction to try a push to the next resistance at 0.6781. The following days
though the sellers piled in and brought the price back below the 0.67 handle.
This line seems to be important for the market. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the fall after the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-fed-hikes-25-basis-points-dollar-initially-falls-20230322/“>FOMC
decision</a>, led also to the break below the upward trendline, which was defining
the uptrend. The price since then pulled back to the 0.67 resistance and it’s
likely that we will find sellers here. Moreover, the recent rally came after
the hot <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-marchus-services-pmi-538-vs-505-expected-20230324/“>US
PMIs</a>, which may indicate that this is just a squeeze on dollar longs and we
may see the USD coming back strongly soon. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>This will depend on the economic
data though. If the data keeps coming in strong, then the market should reprice
again interest rates expectations and lead to some dollar strength. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that for the sellers this is a good spot to pile in as they have the 0.67
resistance and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/“>confluence</a> with the 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level. More conservative sellers may want to wait
for the price to break below the 0.6665 support before jumping onboard. </p><p class=“MsoNormal“>The buyers, on the other hand,
should find more conviction in case the price breaks again above the 0.67
handle, but they are likely to lean also on the 0.6665 support in case the
price pulls back. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>No tsunami warning has been issued and the epicenter appears to be just off the east coast of the Aomori prefecture. JMA is also reaffirming that the preliminary magnitude is that of 6.1. Judging by the location, it doesn’t seem to be one that might cause too much harm and damage to the mainland.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/first-citizens-to-assume-all-deposits-loans-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230327/“>First Citizens to assume all deposits, loans of Silicon Valley Bank</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-nagel-inflation-is-still-just-too-high-20230327/“>ECB’s Nagel: Inflation is still just too high</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-de-cos-recent-tensions-have-generated-a-further-tightening-of-financial-conditions-20230327/“>ECB’s de Cos: Recent tensions have generated a further tightening of financial conditions</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-march-ifo-business-climate-index-933-vs-910-expected-20230327/“>Germany March Ifo business climate index 93.3 vs 91.0 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/eurozone-february-m3-money-supply-29-vs-32-yy-expected-20230327/“>Eurozone February M3 money supply +2.9% vs +3.2% y/y expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-march-cbi-retailing-reported-sales-1-vs-6-expected-20230327/“>UK March CBI retailing reported sales 1 vs -6 expected</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>CHF leads, JPY lags on the day</li><li>European equities higher; S&amp;P 500 futures up 0.6%</li><li>US 10-year yields up 8 bps to 3.462%</li><li>Gold down 1.1% to $1,954.43</li><li>WTI crude up 1.3% to $70.19</li><li>Bitcoin up 0.9% to $27,895</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>It’s a brand new week and maybe this time markets can really look to put behind them the episode of the banking crisis of 2023.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Besides a brief hiccup at the start of European morning trade, it was quite straightforward as risk trades recovered to start things off this week. The banking turmoil looks to ease further and I guess that means the focus will start to turn back towards central banks and inflation once again.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>There will still be watchful eyes on banks and the economy but the bigger picture is likely to stay the same as before we experienced what we did in the past few weeks.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>US futures briefly erased its solid advance at the start of the session but is now back higher again. European equities kept pace and are on course for solid gains to kick start the final week of March trading.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Meanwhile, bond yields are also pulling higher as traders pare back safety bets further. Treasury yields are jumping with Fed fund futures also reflecting roughly 64% odds of the Fed holding rates unchanged in May – down from 85% at the start of the day.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar was more mixed as it trades lower against the franc, loonie and pound while little changed against the euro and aussie. The yen is the main laggard though as bond yields jump higher, with USD/JPY rising from 130.50 earlier to 131.50 during the session.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Equities are now pulling higher on the day with S&amp;P 500 futures up 29 points, or 0.7%, at the highs with bond yields also pressing towards the upside ahead of North America trading. 2-year Treasury yields are now up 18 bps to 3.95% as the mood music continues to improve. There was <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/it-looks-like-the-coast-isnt-clear-just-yet-20230327/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>a bit of a hiccup</a> right at the start of European trading but that has been quickly brushed aside.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is trading more mixed with it being slightly lower against the euro and pound but nothing too notable. The only movers on the day have really been the yen and franc.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The former is falling on the back of higher yields with USD/JPY moving up from 130.50 earlier to 131.50 now while the latter is benefiting from a further cooling in the banking turmoil and arguably the continued hawkish setup by the SNB.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As for meaningful headlines with regards to risk sentiment, the only one that we really got was earlier in the day here:</p><ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/first-citizens-to-assume-all-deposits-loans-of-silicon-valley-bank-20230327/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>First Citizens to assume all deposits, loans of Silicon Valley Bank</a></li></ul>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Here’s what we will be getting:</p><ul><li>Australia February CPI (29/3)</li><li>Spain March preliminary CPI (30/3)</li><li>Germany March preliminary CPI (30/3)</li><li>France March preliminary CPI (31/3)</li><li>Eurozone March preliminary CPI (31/3)</li><li>US February PCE price index (31/3)</li></ul><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As much as markets are recovering from the hangover after the banking turmoil, it won’t be long before the focus shifts back towards central banks and inflation once again.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>To add to the whole mix of data above, there’s also month-end and quarter-end flows to consider alongside potential repatriation flows amid the Japanese fiscal year-end (although much of this should already be transacted during the month itself).</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>This is one of the more lagging takes to one of the bigger themes so far in Q1 2023. The European economy has been quite resilient coming out of what was supposed to be a bleak winter and with recession risks being skirted, we have seen equities in the region soar tremendously since the turn of the year.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.