<p>China’s parliamentary committees meet in the week ahead, beginning on Sunday in an event that will outline key government policies and targets. Chief among them will be a GDP growth estimate, which government advisors currently recommend at 4.5-5.5%. The consensus from economists is 4.9% but there’s some <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-increasingly-ambitious-with-2023-growth-target-may-aim-up-6-sources-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>chatter </a>about 6%.</p><p>The two swing factors are 1) pent up demand from the reopening 2) the damaged property sector. </p><p>The government is expected to widen its annual budget deficit to around 3% of gross domestic product this year and issue about 4 trillion yuan in special bonds to support investment spending, according to Reuters sources. Some of that is already priced into markets so risks could run both ways but I see more upside than downside, given China’s (recent) penchant for over-promising and due to the new leadership looking to solidify its authority.</p><p>Spots to watch will be Chinese equities, commodities and commodity currencies. AUD/USD showed some life on Friday but was unable to get above the weekly high.</p><p>For more, here’s a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-look-china-kicks-off-its-annual-session-parliament-2023-03-02/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“nofollow“>factbox on the NPC</a>.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>An effective bitcoin trading method based on volume profile (AKA market profile)</p><p>Combining volume profile with technical analysis may be an effective trading approach, especially for Bitcoin. When we examine the daily time frame over the span of around 260 days starting in June 2022, please observe that the BTCUSD price rejection at 25,770 resulted in a double top with a high of 25,212 on August 16th.</p><p>At a current price of $22,376 and using this bitcoing price projection, the following price level is predicted to be around $21,250. Key price magnets include the daily pivot low at 21,376, the weekly 20 EMA at 21,116, and the value area high at 21,289.Because it is assumed that there are enough people who are keeping an eye on these price magnets, the targets that they are looking at have a better chance of being reached. The price action in the range of $20,358 to $21,350 should be monitored. If BTCUSD gets there, we want to see how price will react there, for example a ‚V recovery‘ on a smaller timeframe (eg 4 hour), or buyers still not excited to buy there.Traders should proceed with caution while dealing in Bitcoin because of the high degree of risk involved. A trader’s success in the Bitcoin market can be improved by including a volume profile into their technical analysis. As the market develops, <a target=“_blank“ href=“www.forexlive.com“>ForexLive .com</a> will provide further perspectives and future updates.</p>

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bowman-doesnt-comment-on-the-outlook-for-the-us-economy-or-mon-pol-20230303/“>Fed’s Bowman doesn’t comment on the outlook for the US economy or mon pol</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/crypto-companies-behind-tether-used-falsified-documents-report-20230303/“>Crypto companies behind Tether used falsified documents – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-oil-settles-at-7968-20230303/“>WTI Crude oil settles at $79.68</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/mufg-trade-of-the-week-sell-usdbrl-stay-short-eurusd-20230303/“>MUFG trade of the week: Sell USD/BRL, stay short EUR/USD</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-us-oil-rig-count-8-20230303/“>Baker Hughes US oil rig count -8</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/stocks-are-looking-good-jinx-20230303/“>Stocks are looking good (jinx)</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/oil-bulls-pounce-on-the-dip-sending-crude-3-higher-20230303/“>Oil bulls pounce on the dip, sending crude $3 higher</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-another-sizzling-week-as-the-great-year-continues-20230303/“>European equity close: Another sizzling week as the great year continues</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-semi-annual-monetary-policy-report-ongoing-increases-in-fed-funds-are-necessary-20230303/“>Fed semi-annual monetary policy report: Ongoing increases in Fed funds are necessary</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-logal-central-bank-interventions-in-treasuries-should-be-rare-20230303/“>Fed’s Logal: Central bank interventions in Treasuries should be rare</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/economists-largely-dont-see-the-bank-of-canada-shifting-from-450-this-year-20230303/“>Economists largely don’t see the Bank of Canada shifting from 4.50% this year</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-february-ism-services-pmi-551-vs-545-expected-20230303/“>US February ISM services PMI 55.1 vs 54.5 expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/report-on-uae-mulling-leaving-opec-is-far-from-the-truth-report-20230303/“>Report on UAE mulling leaving OPEC is ‚far from the truth‘ – report</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-sp-global-final-service-pmi-506-vs-505-prelim-20230303/“>US S&P Global final service PMI 50.6 vs 50.5 prelim</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/uae-debates-internally-on-whether-to-leave-opec-20230303/“>UAE debates internally on whether to leave OPEC</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-q4-labour-productivity-05-vs-06-prior-20230303/“>Canada Q4 labour productivity -0.5% vs +0.6% prior</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-january-building-permits-40-vs-15-expected-20230303/“>Canada January building permits -4.0% vs +1.5% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-ism-services-data-has-taken-markets-on-a-ride-this-year-a-new-chapter-is-coming-today-20230303/“>The ISM services data has taken markets on a ride this year. A new chapter is coming today</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-gbp-is-the-strongest-an-the-usd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230303/“>The GBP is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-struggles-as-yields-pull-back-20230303/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar struggles as yields pull back</a></li></ul><p>Being the first Friday of the month, the day sorta felt like it should have been an employment day. However, because of the quirks of the shortened calendar month of February, this Friday was void of the big job report. That data will have to wait until next week, when both the US and Canada jobs reports will be released (and it will be 10th of the month). </p><p>We did get the ISM non-manufacturing data today which came in better than expectations at 55.1 vs 54.5. Within that report was the the employment component which came in higher at 54.0 versus 49.8 expected and 50.0 last month (so there was some jobs data afterall). That was a better reading than the manufacturing employment component released on Wednesday which had the employment component declining to 49.1 from 50.6 last month. New orders were also strong at 62.6 versus 58.5 expected. The prices paid index fell from 67.8 to 65.6 but it was still higher than the 64.5 expected, and still way above the 50.0 level. </p><p>The strong data helped to send the dollar back to the upside (it was the weakest of the majors coming into the trading session). </p><p>However, after treasury yields initially moved higher, the momentum stalled and yields started to rotate back to the downside. The 10 year yield fell back below the key 4% level and then the 100 hour moving average (at 3.982%). The 200 hour moving average at 3.962% was approached going into the close. That moving average level will be a key barometer in the new trading week. </p><p>Meanwhile, US stocks, were encouraged by the declining yields as well. As a result, they too started to rally. The NASDAQ index led the charge with a gain of 1.97% which was the best day since February 2. The S&P increase by 1.62% which was its best day since January 6. </p><p>For the trading week all the major indices snatch victory from the jaws of defeat from earlier this week when the prices were reaching new corrective lows and breaking below some key technical levels including the 200 day MA in both the S&P and Nasdaq indices. </p><p>For the trading week, the </p><ul><li>NASDAQ gained 2.58%, </li><li>S&P rose by 1.9%, and the </li><li>Dow Industrial Average rose by 1.75%.</li></ul><p>IN the forex market, the GBP is ending the day as the strongest of the majors. The weakest was the a virtual tie between the USD and the CAD. The dollar fell -0.87% vs the GBP and -0.69% vs the JPY. </p><p>For the trading week, the USD was lower vs all the major currencies although the changes were fairly modest. It moved the most vs the NZD. Against that currency the decline was still less than 1.0% at -0.96%. Versus the CAD, the greenback was only lower by 0.07% (just about 9 pips from the close a week ago):</p><ul><li>-0.82% vs the EUR</li><li>-0.48% vs the JPY</li><li>-0.88% vs the GBP</li><li>-0.45% vs the CHF</li><li>-0.07% vs the CAD</li><li>-0.66% vs the AUD</li><li>-0.96% vs the NZD</li></ul><p>IN other markets: </p><ul><li>Spot gold was encouraged by the lower yields in lower dollar and rallied $19.72 today or 1.07% to $1855.19. For the week, spot gold increase by $45.31 or 2.5%</li><li>spot silver is closing higher by $0.35 or 1.68% at $21.23. For its week, in the $0.48 or 2.31%</li><li>WTI crude oil is trading near the high for the week at $79.82. That is up $1.66 or 2.11% today. For the trading week, crude oil is up $3.49 or 4.57%</li><li>Bitcoin did not have a risk on flow today as the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/silvergate-triggered-yet-another-mini-crypto-sell-off-20230303/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>Silvergate </a>news this week pressured the digital currency. The prices trading at $22,279. For the trading week, the prices down once $1283 or -5.45%.</li></ul><p>In the US debt market:</p><ul><li>2 year yield is trading at 4.86%. This week the yield reached 4.944% which was the highest level going back to July 2007. However, yields backed off and for the week it is still ending up but only by 4.1 basis points</li><li>10 year yield is at 3.959% which is down -11 basis points on the day. The high-yield this week reached 4.089%. For the trading week, the yield is up only 1.1 basis points</li><li>30 year yield is at 3.877% which is down -14 basis points on the day. The high yield reached 4.047% this week. For the trading week yield fell -5.7 basis points</li></ul><p>In the new trading week, in addition to the employment report on Friday, other employment measures including the ADP jobs report, the JOLTS job openings, and the Challenger jobs survey will be released. </p><p>In addition, Fed Chair Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The market will be keen to his views on whether his playbook remains intact or has been ratcheted up a notch as a result of the stronger data. There were some Fed officials this week who seem to be leaning higher, and others that seem to be satisfied with the current playbook of getting the rate toward 5.25% and sitting still for an extended period time.</p><p>The Fed funds futures for October delivery reached an implied yield of around 5.50% this week before settling at 5.455%. The Federal Reserve will announce their next rate decision on March 22.</p><p>Thank you for all your support this week. Hope you have a good weekend.</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li>Labor market is still ‚quite tight'</li><li>Inflation is likely past its peak</li><li>Inflation expectations are well-anchored but under-surface movements warrant caution</li><li>My view is still in step with the FOMC</li><li>We still have work to do</li><li>Expect no rate cuts this year</li></ul>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Daily changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.6%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.0%</li><li>DJIA +1.2%</li><li>Russell 2000 +1.3%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.2%</li></ul><p>Weekly changes:</p><ul><li>S&P 500 +1.9%</li><li>Nasdaq Comp +2.6%</li><li>Russell 2000 2.7%</li><li>Toronto TSX +1.7%</li></ul><p>Greg highlighted the technical earlier and how the S&P 500 has quickly comeback from a trip below the 200-dma.</p><p>The weekly chart shows a nice bounce but it didn’t get above last week’s intraday high.</p><p>What’s been driving markets is the hope that the Fed is near a top. Fed funds are pricing in 5.44% in July and 2-year yields nearly hit 5% earlier this week. That’s led to a wave of speculation that we hit the top in yields and rate hike expectations and the hope that all the risks are towards rate cuts after July.</p><p>It’s been an impressive flood of money and that was emphasized with the huge gains today.</p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDCHF has extended to a new session low and in the process is dipping below the rising 200 hour moving average at 0.93619. The low-priced has just reached 0.93584.</p><p>The last time the USDCHF price traded below its 200 day moving average was back on February 21 when the 200 hour moving average was at 0.9228. Over the next 4 1/2 days, the price moved up 200 pips to a high of 0.94284 reached on February 27. </p><p>Since then, the price has been waffling up and down with a low near 0.93406 and highs near 0.9440 (reached just yesterday). The high price yesterday got within about six pips of the falling 100 day moving average at 0.9346 (at the time). Sellers leaned against the key daily moving average. The price started to rotate back to the downside. </p><p>The dollar selling today, help by lower yields and a rising stock market, has also helped to push the USDCHF lower. </p><p>Now traders will decide if they want to move further below the 200 hour moving average and look to test the floor area near 0.9340 to 0.9348.</p><p>Alternatively if buyers lean against the moving average, getting back above 0.9369 is the first hurdle that would give the dip buyer some short-term satisfaction. Staying above that area and a move back toward the 100 hour moving average and swing area between 0.9387 and 0.9393 cannot be ruled out over time.</p><p>Of course as we head into the close, this area would be a natural level for shorts heading into the weekend, to take some profit..</p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Market picture</p><p>Bitcoin
plunged more than 6% to $22.0K early this morning. The plunge into this area
came as a market reaction to the potential bankruptcy of Silvergate. The news
triggered a wave of stop orders on fears that the situation could cause a
domino effect in the industry, as with FTX earlier in the day.</p><p>Technically,
the dip has pushed the price below its 50-day moving average, which does not
bode well for the short-term outlook, although this signal will only be
reliable at the close of the day. The intraday picture is one of tidy buying
after a brief dip. The overall moderately positive sentiment in the global
markets supports the buy-the-dip mood.</p><p>A return
above $22.8 an ounce before today’s close could spark further buying. Closing
near the lows would be an essential signal to spread fear throughout the crypto
market, suggesting a further drawdown to $19.7K in the coming weeks.</p><p>News Background</p><p>Shares in US
holding company Silvergate Capital Corporation, which owns crypto bank
Silvergate, plunged almost 49% on news of a delay in publishing its annual
report to the SEC. The company said it needed „additional time“ to
complete its audit.</p><p>Silvergate
Bank has announced that it may file for bankruptcy due to a massive sell-off
and an inability to repay its debts. Coinbase, the largest US cryptocurrency
exchange, has announced severing its financial relationship with Silvergate
Bank.</p><p>According to
Glassnode, retail bitcoin investors‘ purchases have outpaced coin issuance.
Investors with balances up to 1 BTC („shrimps“) and between 1 and 10
BTC („crabs“) over the past year have bought 105% and 119%,
respectively, more Bitcoins that were mined.</p><p>Ethereum
developers have set March 14 as the date for the Shanghai upgrade on the Goerli
test network. If the test network upgrade succeeds, the main network upgrade
could occur in the second week of April.</p><p>This article was written by <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.fxpro.com/“>FxPro</a>’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.</p>

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The more positive risk mood now is to do with a retreat in bond yields today but it really feels like just another day in the office for European equities this year. As for US equities, it has been a bit of a struggle and even yesterday’s turnaround is hardly convincing of a major switch up in sentiment. In fact, it may even be more of a technical one:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The S&P 500 index caught a bounce off its 200-day moving average (blue line) with the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher from October also holding at 3,926 – at least for now.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>US futures are slightly higher now but it is still early in the day. The ISM services index later could end up being a key event that either vindicates the current mood or breaks it apart. As such, even with equities holding some light optimism at the moment, I would say that it is not without a sense of apprehension and nerves as well.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>In short, sentiment remains fragile for US equities even if we are seeing buyers look to build on yesterday’s advance. We’ll have to take stock of the market mood again after the US ISM services index later today.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the price started to lose momentum falling into the neckline <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at the 1.1839 price level. The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are acting as <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> and the sellers keep leaning on
them. </p><p>This suggests a bearish bias as
the economic data keeps coming in hot like the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report and the Fed is starting to lean on the more
hawkish side like <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> suggested yesterday. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations we are likely to see more selling pressure with a possible
breakout of the neckline.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see how the sellers leant on the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> and pushed the price lower. This
is starting to look like a <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/“>descending
triangle</a> pattern with the base at the 1.1922 level. </p><p>The sellers will eye a break
below that level to get even more conviction for a breakout of the neckline.
The buyers will need a break above the trendline to get the conviction to make
higher highs.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the key levels of the current range. We have the resistance at 1.2143 and
the support at 1.1922. Today will be all about the ISM report and the market
will go where the data will take it. </p><p>If the data beats expectations,
especially the “prices” sub-index, then we will see the sellers in full control
and the support giving way. If the data misses expectations, we will see a
rally towards the trendline. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the sellers failed to break decisively the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> level at 32684 on the first try.
This may be just a pullback before more economic data confirms the new
downtrend. </p><p>We got some bearish stuff in the
past days with the “prices paid” sub-index in the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-feb-ism-manufacturing-477-vs-480-expected-20230301/“>ISM
Manufacturing PMI</a> report showing a jump back into expansion and <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-waller-fomc-may-need-to-raise-rates-beyond-decembers-51-54-central-tendency-view-20230302/“>Fed’s
Waller</a> yesterday signalling that the Fed will go above their projected
terminal rate if the data keeps coming in strong. </p><p>Today we will have the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar“>ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI</a> report and if that beats
expectations, especially in the “prices” sub-index, then we should see the
support breaking and more selling pressure coming in going forward. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price has been consolidating near the support as the market awaits
more economic data before confirming the bearish trend. </p><p>On the upside, we may see the
buyers pushing the price into the 33538 <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> where we can also find 50% <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/“>Fibonacci
retracement</a> level, but that looks unlikely unless today’s
report misses expectations. On the downside, we should see the sellers jumping
in strongly in case the report beats expectations with a breakout of the
support at 32684 very likely. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see the more near-term price action. The buyers may manage to get to the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level before the PMI report which would act a strong
resistance and would be a gift for the sellers if the data beats expectations.
On the downside, more aggressive sellers may also enter at the breakout of the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/“>trendline</a> in expectation that the support
won’t hold. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.