<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>If you recall how trading went last week, it was a case of markets struggling with what to do in the aftermath of the US CPI data. However, the bond market was steadfast as sellers continued to push their agenda and yields moved higher. Eventually, the rest of the market listened and on Friday, it looked like we were on the verge of a trending break.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>However, that all turned around when 10-year Treasury yields failed to seal a break above its December high of 3.90% and reversed lower before the end of the day:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>As that played out, the dollar also saw gains dissipate and failed to clinch any major technical breaks as outlined earlier <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/close-but-no-cigar-for-the-dollar-20230220/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>here</a>.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Going back to the bond market, it has been a tricky start to the year with January observing a rally in bonds only for that to completely falter in February. That is a sign that traders are struggling to find a balance on the Fed outlook and how much higher rates might possibly go in the months ahead.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>However, the good news is that the technical battle lines are quite well defined at the moment. The December high at 3.90% will be a key topside level to watch for 10-year yields in the US with the downside level to keep an eye out for being the 200-day moving average (green line) and the recent lows so far this year closer to 3.32% to 3.33%.</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>If we get a break on either side of that, expect other assets to also respond in kind to what the bond market has to say.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can
see that the Dow hasn’t done much since the end of last year. Recently, the
price got even stuck in a tight range between the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>resistance</a> at 34477 and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/“>support</a> at 33538. </p><p>The bias is turning more bearish
as the hot economic data is making the market to rethink its expectations about
earlier than expected pause in interest rates hikes and cuts by the end of this
year. In fact, the market now sees a higher terminal rate with almost no cuts
in 2023. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the current rangebound price action with the support at 33538
holding pretty well. This is the worst environment for traders as one can be
chopped out pretty easily on both sides. The best strategy would be to wait for
a clear breakout on either side before taking any position. </p><p>In the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the price bounce from the support and the <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/“>moving
averages</a> are now pointing north. This may be a signal that the price can move up
again towards the resistance, but the recent catalysts are all bearish for the
market. If one wants to “play the range” then buying at support and selling at
resistance with defined risk is the only way to go for now. </p>

This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>CNBCs Steve Leesman, commenting on the markets said on Friday, „If you are not confused, you’re not paying attention“.

There is a lot of confusion in the market, and even at the Fed. The CPI inflation released this week, added some added confusion as it was a little more hefty than recent months. There still is some hope, however, the the shelter component saves the day.

The impact is for volatile, up and down markets. When the markets are like that, technicals help to take some of the uncertainty out of the price action.</p><ul><li>EURUSD, 7:20</li><li>USDJPY, 12:20 </li><li>GBPUSD, 16:00</li><li>USDCHF, 18:55</li><li>USDCAD, 22:05</li><li>AUDUSD, 24:42</li><li>NZDUSD 26:58</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US has information that China is considering sending weapons to Russia for the war in Ukraine.</p><p>The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s Face the Nation. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.”</p><p>Blinken said the lethal aid could range from ammunition to the weapons themselves.</p><p>Blinken will meet with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi this weekend in a meeting that was delayed by the balloon fiasco.</p><p>Another report said Chinese officials would visit Moscow next week and put forward a new proposal to resolve the war that would respect the „sovereignty of all countries“.</p><p>/<a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/u/us-dollar/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“fddda8f4-d5f8-4ee4-8e34-3760ed062f3c“ target=“_blank“>US dollar</a></p>

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-stocks-close-mixed-for-the-day-and-mixed-for-the-week-20230217/“>US stocks close mixed for the day and mixed for the week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/wti-crude-oil-futures-settle-at-7634-20230217/“>WTI crude oil futures settle at $76.34</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-fx-market-isnt-feeling-the-fright-20230217/“>The FX market isn’t feeling the fright</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/mufg-trade-of-the-week-sell-eurusd-20230217/“>MUFG trade of the week: Sell EUR/USD</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rig-count-607-versus-609-last-week-20230217/“>Baker Hughes oil rig count 607 versus 609 last week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/binance-denies-report-that-its-considering-delisting-all-us-based-cryptocurrencies-20230217/“>Binance denies report that it’s considering delisting all US-based cryptocurrencies</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/european-equity-close-a-modest-stumble-to-end-another-strong-week-20230217/“>European equity close: A modest stumble to end another strong week</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-barkin-not-taking-signal-from-jobs-retail-sales-due-to-seasonal-adjustments-20230217/“>Fed’s Barkin: Not taking signal from jobs & retail sales due to seasonal adjustments</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-treasury-yields-turn-lower-on-the-day-pulling-down-the-us-dollar-20230217/“>US Treasury yields turn lower on the day, pulling down the US dollar</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-leading-indicators-index-03-vs-03-expected-20230217/“>US January leading indicators index -0.3% vs -0.3% expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bowman-were-seeing-a-lot-of-inconsistent-data-on-economic-conditions-20230217/“>Fed’s Bowman: We’re seeing a lot of inconsistent data on economic conditions</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-barkin-seeing-some-progress-on-inflation-with-demand-normalizing-20230217/“>Fed’s Barkin: Seeing some progress on inflation with demand normalizing</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-january-ppi-04-versus-01-estimate-yoy-54-versus-77-last-month-20230217/“>Canada January IPPI 0.4% versus -0.1% estimate. YoY 5.4% versus 7.7% last month</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-january-import-prices-02-vs-02-mm-expected-20230217/“>US January import prices -0.2% vs -0.2% m/m expected</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-usd-is-the-strongest-and-the-nzd-is-the-weakest-as-the-na-session-begins-20230217/“>The USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/ecbs-villeroy-rate-cuts-timing-is-surely-not-a-question-for-this-year-20230217/“>ECB’s Villeroy: Rate cuts timing is „surely“ not a question for this year</a></li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-european-fx-news-wrap-dollar-on-the-cusp-of-a-major-technical-breakout-20230217/“>ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar on the cusp of a major technical breakout</a></li></ul><p>The NY session started the session with USD as a solid leader when ranked vs the major currencies. It was up 0.37% vs the GBP and as high as 0.80% vs the NZD. Those gains were eroded in the morning session and is ending the day with declines of -0.44% vs the GBP, -0.27% vs the EUR and although still higher on the day vs the NZD, it is only by 0.13% (vs 0.80% at the start).</p><p>Below is a ranking of the strongest to the weakest. The cumulative changes of the USD vs the majors is negative on the day and near the middle of the majors. </p><p>The USD buyers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. </p><p>What turned the greenback around?</p><p>The Fed chatter from Barkin and Bowman were a little less hawkish vs Bullard and Mester yesterday. </p><p>Fed’s Barkin argued for 25 basis point hikes (not 50 like Mester and Bullard), saying that it offers the Fed flexibility to respond to data, and he is not taking signals from jobs or retail which he argued was due to seasonal adjustments. </p><p>For Bowman, she said:</p><ul><li>We’re seeing a lot of inconsistent data on economic conditions </li></ul><p>She also threw in the towel a bit saying:</p><ul><li>Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens next in the economy. </li></ul><p>What the we know from this week is that although CPI was around expectations, the PPI pipeline inflation was a disappointment to the upside. The Retail sales also showed that growth was strong, but we also learned that consumer debt hit a record $16.9 trillion last quarter with credit card debt growing at record rates (up 6.6% for the month and 15.2% YoY). Delinquencies are also on the rise. Is the consumer having trouble controlling their spending? Will it catch up to the buyers and finally lead to the slower growth?</p><p>As Steve Leesman said on CNBC today, if you aren’t confused about the data, you aren’t paying attention. </p><p>A look around the closing markets today are showing:</p><ul><li>Gold is up $5.86 or 0.32% at$1842.19. For the week Gold is down -1.22%</li><li>Silver is up $0.15 or 0.69% at $21.72. For the week silver is down -1.15%</li><li>crude oil is trading at $76.57 that’s down $-2.17. For the week crude oil is down -3.95%</li><li>Bitcoin is trading at $24,610. For the week, the digital currency is up 12.95%</li></ul><p>Looking at US debt market:</p><ul><li>2year yield is trading at 4.623%, that’s down -2 basis points on the day, for the week, the two year yield rose 10.4 basis points</li><li>5 year yield is at 4.033%, down -4.3 basis points. For the week the yield is up 10.7 basis points</li><li>10 year yield is at 3.822%, down 4.2 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 8 basis points</li><li>30 year3.872% , down -4.6 basis points. For the week, the yield is up 5.1 basis points</li></ul><p>In the US stock market this week, the Dow and S&P fell modestly while the NASDAQ rose:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average fell -0.13%</li><li>S&P index fell -0.28%</li><li>NASDAQ index rose 0.59%</li></ul><p>In the Forex market for the week, the USD was mostly higher. The US dollar was:</p><ul><li>Down -0.16% versus the EUR</li><li>Up 2.07% versus the JPY</li><li>Up 0.06% versus the GBP.</li><li>Up 0.08% versus the CHF.</li><li>Up 0.97% versus the CAD</li><li>Up 0.54% versus the AUD</li><li>Up 1.04% versus the NZD</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/indices/“ class=“terms__secondary-term“ id=“eb50e0fb-8258-4e43-80e6-8831246f8b37″ target=“_blank“>indices</a> are closing mixed for the day and mixed for the week.</p><p>For the trading day:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average rose 129.84 points or 0.39% at 33826.70</li><li>S&P index fell 11.32 points or -0.28% at 4079.10</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -68.55 points or -0.58% at 11787.28</li><li>Russell 2000 rose 4.144 points or 0.21% at 1946.35</li></ul><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average closed down -0.13%</li><li>S&P index closed lower by -0.28%</li><li><a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/n/nasdaq/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“73ea5227-7971-4d75-a878-f20ede81c27e“ target=“_blank“>NASDAQ</a> index was able to eke out a 0.59% gain</li><li>Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer with a 1.435% increase</li></ul><p>Looking at the Dow 30, the five biggest gainers for the day included:</p><ul><li>Merck, +2.81%</li><li>Amgen +2.69%</li><li>Unitedhealth +2.41%</li><li>J&J +2.12%</li><li>Procter & Gamble +2.10%</li></ul><p>The biggest losers today included:</p><ul><li>Chevron -2.17%</li><li>Intel -2.09%</li><li>Salesforce -1.74%</li><li>Microsoft -1.56%</li><li>Home Depot -1.0%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/terms/u/usd-chf/“ class=“terms__main-term“ id=“fa5bab5c-5ba5-4114-9c43-630e0db208d3″ target=“_blank“>USDCHF</a> broke to the upside today extending above the topside swing area between 0.9278 and 0.9290. The break increased the buying momentum with the price extending to a higher 0.93308 before rotating back to the downside.</p><p>After trying to hold support against the previous high from February at 0.92904, the price broke lower in the New York morning session and continued the retracement into the close. The price has now erased all the gains of the day. The close yesterday came in at 0.9256. The low price just reached 0.9243</p><p>On the downside the price is approaching the 100 hour MA at 0.9233. The 200 hour MA comes in at 0.9225. Those levels will be barometers in the new trading week. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. Both on Wednesday and Thursday, the price stalled near the MAs. Admittedly, there was trading above and below the MAs yesterday, but momentum could not be sustained. </p><p>With the failure on the break of the topside ceiling, that area is reestablished as topside resistance with intereim resistance at 0.9258 to 0.9262. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The EURUSD has continued the grind higher and has now reached the 100 hour MA at 1.0699 target (see earlier post). The high price just reached 1.06977 – just a pip or so short of that target.</p><p>You can expect some profit taking into the weekend in this area. The 200 hour MA is up at 1.0708 and it would take a move above that level, to increase the bullish bias. Recall from yesterday, the price stalled against the 200 hour moving average increasing the levels importance going forward.</p><p>Safe it to say, we will be going into the weekend with the price near the MA levels as the market ponders in the new week, whether the dollar moves higher (back down for the EURUSD) or lower (higher for the EURUSD). This area is a key barometer from a technical perspective. </p>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are trading to new session highs. The Dow Industrial Average has moved positive on the day. It currently trades at 114 points or 0.34% at 33811.00. At session lows, the Dow Industrial Average was down -179 points</p><p>The S&P index is trading down -12.16 point or -0.29% at 4078.20. At session lows the S&P was down -42.47 points.</p><p>NASDAQ index is down -75.1 points or -0.63% at 11782. At session lows the NASDAQ index was a down -182.62 points.</p><p>For the trading week:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average is down -0.15%</li><li>S&P index is down -0.28%</li><li>NASDAQ index is up 0.57%</li></ul><p>Looking at the S&P sectors for the week, </p><ul><li>Consumer discretionary is leading the way with a gain of 1.57%</li><li>Energy is the biggest loser with a decline of -6.65%</li></ul>

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>We are going back to a familiar theme in markets today, that being buy the dollar, sell everything else. This comes as we see traders digest the happenings this week and lean towards the possibility of a more hawkish/aggressive Fed. USD/JPY is now inching just above 135.00 as 10-year Treasury yields are threatening to move above the December highs of 3.90%:</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>Despite the dip buying in equities this week, <a target=“_blank“ href=“https://www.forexlive.com/news/are-the-cracks-finally-showing-up-in-the-market-20230217/“ target=“_blank“ rel=“follow“>which finally relented yesterday</a>, it looks to be a case where the bond market gets it right once again. Treasury yields have been trending higher through the week and have continued to pull higher after bond sellers drew the line when yields pushed up against the 200-day moving average (blue line).</p><p style=““ class=“text-align-justify“>The dollar is continuing to stay perky at the moment, keeping at the highs against the euro, yen, franc, aussie and kiwi while maintaining gains against the remainder of the major currencies. This comes as equities continue to stay pressured with S&P 500 futures still down 28 points, or 0.7%, currently.</p>

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.