When put into context to the near-term chart below, the quick 30 pip drop earlier isn’t that meaningful. As our reader Alex pointed out, there were some headlines noting that the BOJ is said to see „little need to rush an October rate hike“ and that they are „mulling a change to their view on upside price risks“. But here’s a look at how things are playing out on the hourly chart for the pair:

Sellers did try to wrestle back some momentum earlier in the week but were thwarted in their attempts to push below 149.00. Since then, the 100-hour moving average (red line) has returned back to be a key near-term support level for the pair. And it looks to be doing the job again now amid the drop earlier.

Hold above and buyers will continue to keep a more bullish near-term bias. But break below and sellers will start to come back into the picture again. But just be wary that we are closing in on key resistance points as well the longer price action holds up here.

The 100-day moving average is seen at 150.81 currently and has already made a crossover back under the 200-day moving average as noted here at the time.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another
set of strong US data. In fact, the US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board
by a big margin and the US Jobless Claims came out much better than expected.

One caveat is that the
market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost
perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need stronger
US data and especially signs of a pickup in inflation to see the market pricing
in an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle.

The next big risk events
will be in November when we get the October data, the FOMC policy decision and
the US election.

On the NZD side, the New
Zealand Q3 CPI this week missed expectations solidifying the market’s view
for another 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting and even pricing 12% chance of a
75 bps move.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that NZDUSD is consolidating around the key 0.6050 support zone. This is where we can expect the buyers
to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into
the 0.6217 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5850 support next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action as the bearish momentum waned. We
have the 0.61 handle acting as resistance here so a break above it will likely
see the buyers increase the bullish momentum into the 0.6217 resistance.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much more we can glean from this timeframe as the market participants will
likely keep on playing the range until we get a breakout. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Just a bit of a geopolitical update as it looks like North Korea is now getting involved with the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is being reported that North Korean troops have been shipped to Russian bases in the far east for training and adjustment. Following which, they will likely be subsequently „deployed for combat“.

Besides that, North Korea is also said to have sent artillery shells, anti-tank rockets and ballistic missiles to Russia.

Earlier in the day, Ukraine president Zelensky warned that North Korea will be sending „about 10,000 soldiers“ for the cause.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The bullish momentum in the
US Dollar seems to be waning as GBPUSD couldn’t print a new low despite another
set of strong US data. In fact, the US
Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin and the US
Jobless Claims came out much better than expected.

One caveat is that the
market has now priced out the aggressive rate cuts expectations and it’s almost
perfectly in line with the Fed’s projections. Therefore, we will likely need stronger
US data and especially signs of a pickup in inflation to see the market pricing
in an earlier pause in the Fed’s easing cycle.

The next big risk events
will be in November when we get the October data, the FOMC policy decision and
the US election.

On the GBP side, we got the
UK CPI report this week where the data missed
expectations across the board and prompted the market to expect another 25 bps
cut in December. This morning, we got strong UK
Retail Sales figures which boosted the GBP.

GBPUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that GBPUSD failed to break below the 1.30 handle and eventually bounced
higher despite strong US data. The buyers are stepping in around these levels
to position for a rally back into the 1.3265 level. The sellers will want to see
the price breaking lower to extend the drop into the major trendline.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we got a nice spike upward this morning following the UK retail sales
data but got rejected from the downward trendline. The buyers will need the price
to break above the trendline to start targeting new highs, while the sellers
will likely continue to lean on it to position for new lows.

GBPUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price is bouncing around a strong support zone around the 1.3035
level where we can find the confluence of the previous swing level and a minor
upward trendline.

The buyers will likely pile
in around these levels to target a break above the major downward trendline,
while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into
the 1.29 handle. The red line define the average daily range for today.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• AUD/USD advance after jobs data held back by key technicals for now
• AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Breakout or fakeout?
• ECB the main event on the agenda in the session ahead
• China says have invited EU technical team over for next phase of EV negotiations
• US must have healthy relationship with China based on level playing field – Yellen
• Eurozone September final CPI +1.7% vs +1.8% y/y prelim
• Eurozone August trade balance €4.6 billion vs €21.2 billion prior
• Switzerland September trade balance CHF 4.95 billion vs CHF 4.58 billion prior

Markets:

• AUD leads, CAD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%
• US 10-year yields up 1.8 bps to 4.033%
• Gold up 0.5% to $2,687.18
• WTI crude up 0.2% to $70.56
• Bitcoin down 1.0% to $66,912

It was a session bereft of any major headlines and market moves were relatively light as well overall.

In FX, the aussie largely held its gains from Asia Pacific trading following a hotter jobs report. AUD/USD was marked up to a high of 0.6710 then before keeping around 0.6680-90 in European morning trade. The pair is now up 0.5% to near 0.6700 with large option expiries and a couple of key technical levels in play.

Besides that, the action elsewhere among major currencies is relatively muted. The dollar remains steady, keeping in a decent spot after the gains in the past few weeks. EUR/USD is little changed at 1.0865 and USD/JPY flat at 149.60 currently.

In the equities space, European indices are nudging higher with French stocks bouncing back after the budget worries yesterday. UK stocks are also following up the gains from yesterday with the FTSE 100 seen up 0.4%. This comes with US futures also looking in a better mood, looking to scale back towards record highs again.

Elsewhere, gold is tracking higher again as it clips fresh record highs at $2,687 at the moment. The gold train marches on.

Coming up next, we have the ECB where a 25 bps rate cut is very much expected before we move on to US trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar has been
gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and
lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia.

Stanley Druckenmiller said
in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump
victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for example.

That could explain the
recent USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view,
so it could be just noise.

For now, we can only work
with data and today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which
will likely be market moving. The key events though will be in November when we
get the October data and the US election.

On the AUD side, the Australian
labour market report today beat expectations across the board by a big
margin. Although it didn’t change much in terms of interest rate expectations,
it reinforces the RBA’s hawkish stance.

AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is getting closer to the 0.6622 level. If the price gets there,
we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to
position for a rally back into the 0.68 handle. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
0.64 handle next.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is tentatively breaking above the downward trendline. The sellers will likely keep on defending
the 0.67 handle but if the buyers manage to break higher, we might see a rally into
the 0.6750 level next.

AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the recent price action with the spike higher on the strong Australian
jobs report. There’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for
a break above the 0.67 handle, while the sellers will likely lean on it to
position for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Sweeping, untargeted tariffs would raise prices for US households
• There is a growing international consensus that China must shift its economic practices
• China policies are leading to industrial overcapacity, threatening US firms and workers

All I see there is that if Trump wins the election and locks horns with China, it is likely to stoke inflation pressures. Expect that to be one of the potential election trade in the weeks ahead. That will not only impact the dollar based on the Fed outlook but also broader risk sentiment too.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview

The US Dollar has been
gaining ground across the board this week despite the lack of economic data and
lower Treasury yields, essentially moving forward by inertia.

Stanley Druckenmiller said
in an interview yesterday that the market is already positioning for a Trump
victory given the moves in some stocks like DJT for example.

That could explain the
recent USD strength as it should appreciate on higher growth and less rate cuts
expectations. Nevertheless, not all markets have been in sync with this view,
so it could be just noise.

For now, we can only work
with data and today we get the US retail sales and jobless claims figures which
will likely be market moving. The key events though will be in November when we
get the October data and the US election.

On the CAD side, the latest
Canadian
CPI missed expectations and sealed the 50 bps cut at the upcoming meeting
with the market seeing now a 73% probability from 48% before the inflation
report.

The Loonie appreciated
following the data release although that might have had to do more with a “sell
the fact” reaction as the market priced in already a very aggressive rate cuts
path for the BoC.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD fell below the key 1.3785 level following the Canadian CPI report.
The sellers will likely keep on stepping in around this level to position for a
drop into the 1.36 support,
while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into
the 1.39 handle next.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price broke below the steep trendline that was defining the strong
bullish momentum. The sellers piled in on the break to position for new lows
and the price is now testing again the 1.3785 level. The buyers will want to
see the price breaking higher to start targeting new highs.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance zone around the 1.3785 level. There’s not much
else to add here as the buyers will look for a break higher, while the sellers
will step in for a move lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Retail Sales and US Jobless Claims data.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

FP Markets,
a global multi-asset
Forex and CFD
broker, participated in the Forex Expo Dubai 2024 earlier this month. The
largest trading event in the Middle East took place in Dubai, UAE, from 7-8
October and drew an impressive 18,000 visitors this year.

The FP Markets Team was invited to
participate in two segments: ‘Future Trends in Financial Technology’ and ‘Women
in Forex’. Martin Stoilov, Head of Customer Experience at FP Markets, delivered
an insightful talk on how Artificial Intelligence and the human element can
work together to create authentic customer experiences. Additionally, and as
part of the event’s newly-inaugurated segment ‘Women in Forex’, Global Head of
Marketing, Andria Phiniefs, led a panel discussion on the crucial part women
play in the industry, the challenges they face, and how they can be empowered
to take on more leadership roles.

The event concluded with an awards
ceremony on Tuesday evening during which the FP Markets Team received two
outstanding achievement accolades. Andria Phiniefs was recognised as ‘Mentor of
the Year’, and the FP Markets Research Team, headed by Market Analyst Aaron
Hill, was presented with the ‘Excellence in Technical Analysis’ award.

Commenting on FP Markets’ presence and
achievements at the Forex Expo Dubai 2024, Global Head of Marketing, Andria
Phiniefs, stated: ‘For the Team to be invited to talk as experts in their
respective fields, as well as awarded for outstanding contributions, is
testament to our brand’s culture. We are proud to be part of an ecosystem that
encourages agility and adaptability, pushing the boundaries of innovation
forward. At FP Markets, our belief in the power
of knowledge extends to both our Clients and Team: knowledge sharing happens
internally and externally. Striving to be more than just another broker, all
our efforts will continue to focus on furthering our Clients’ trading knowledge
and delivering a superior investing experience’.

About
FP Markets:

●
FP Markets is a Multi-Regulated Forex and
CFD Broker with over 19 years of industry experience.

●
The company offers highly competitive
interbank Forex spreads starting from 0.0 pips.

●
Traders can choose from leading powerful
online trading platforms,
including FP Markets’ Mobile App,
MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, WebTrader, cTrader, Iress
and TradingView.

●
The company’s outstanding 24/7
multilingual customer service has been recognised by Investment Trends and
awarded ‘The Highest Overall Client Satisfaction Award’ over five consecutive
years.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Value Broker
– Global’ for six consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024) at the
Global Forex Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Broker –
Europe’ and the ‘Best Forex Partners Programme – Asia’ at the Global Forex
Awards (2022, 2023, 2024).

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’, and ‘Most Trusted Broker’ and ‘Best Trade Execution’ at the
Ultimate Fintech Awards in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

●
FP Markets was crowned ‘Best CFD Broker –
Africa’ at the 2023 FAME Awards.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Trade
Execution’ and ‘Most Transparent Broker’ at the Ultimate Fintech Awards APAC
2023.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Price
Execution’ at the Brokersview Awards 2024, Singapore.

●
FP Markets was awarded the ‘Best Trading
Experience – Africa’ at the FAME Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Most Transparent Broker’
and ‘Best Trading Conditions’ at the
Global Ultimate Fintech Awards 2024.

●
FP Markets was awarded ‘Best Forex Spreads APAC’ and
‘Best Trading Experience APAC’ at the 2024 Finance Magnates Pacific
Summit.

●
FP Markets regulatory presence includes
the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Financial
Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, the Financial Services
Commission (FSC) of Mauritius, the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission
(CySEC), the Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB), and the Capital
Markets Authority (CMA) of Kenya.

For more information on
FP Markets‘ comprehensive range of products and services, visit https://www.fpmarkets.com/

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Sterling the main mover in the FX space on the session
• UK September CPI +1.7% vs +1.9% y/y expected
• The gold train looks to march on
• This catalyst could trigger a huge selloff in gold
• Gold and Silver: A Correlated Duo
• Japan’s largest union group Rengo reportedly eyes wage hike of 5% or more in 2025
• BOJ’s Adachi says no specific timeline on when to raise rates again
• Italy September final CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% y/y prelim
• China reaffirms it will not renounce the use of force over Taiwan

Markets:

• EUR and USD lead, GBP lags on the day
• European equities lower, UK stocks up; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 4.010%
• Gold up 0.5% to $2,675.48
• WTI crude down 0.4% to $70.29
• Bitcoin up 2.0% to $67,830

The main focus of the session was on the UK CPI report and it came in softer than expected.

The details also showed slowing momentum in core prices and also services inflation, rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the BOE next month.

It wasn’t too much though, with the OIS market already having implied a ~80% probability of a 25 bps move before the data. After, that was marked up to ~91% as it is currently.

In turn, the pound fell with GBP/USD sliding from 1.3070 to a low of 1.2983 during the session. The pair is holding on to the 1.3000 level though on the daily chart, seen at around 1.3015 now – down 0.4% on the day. EUR/GBP also pushed higher and is up 0.4% to 0.8365 currently.

Besides that, there wasn’t too much to work with for broader markets. The dollar remains steady across the board with EUR/USD keeping in a narrow range just under 1.0900. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is keeping little changed as well around 149.20-30 levels after recovering from the lows in Asia.

The antipodeans are on the softer side with some slight pressure on the Chinese yuan also still persisting. AUD/USD is one to watch as it flirts with its 100-day moving average of 0.6693 on the day.

In other markets, UK stocks are up after the softer inflation numbers but European indices elsewhere are lower but at least off earlier lows. French stocks are the laggard with the CAC 40 down 0.6%, marked down by budget worries.

As for the bond market, yields are looking heavier across the board with the UK leading the way. 10-year Treasury yields nearing 4% is something to keep an eye out for as well.

In the commodities space, gold continues to impress on the week as it closes in on fresh record highs. The precious metal touched $2,682 earlier, just a tad shy of last month’s record of $2,685.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.