This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
It’s been a
quiet session with no notable news release. The mood in the markets has been
positive but we will need to see how that evolves after the US cash equity
open. The US Dollar extended the gains following the better than feared NFP report on Friday.
Unfortunately,
this week is pretty bare on the data front as we head into the FOMC decision
next week. The market still sees a 25% chance of a 50 bps cut at the upcoming
meeting and a soft US CPI report on Wednesday might increase those
probabilities a little.
The focus
remains on the growth and labour market data though. For the growth data, we
have the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index tomorrow and the University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday. For the labour market data, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims on Thursday.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.
Monday
The Chinese CPI
Y/Y is expected at 0.7% vs. 0.5% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.5%
vs. 0.5% prior. Real rates in China continue to be too high when there’s a
strong need for very low and even negative rates in such economic
circumstances. Chinese officials keep pledging more support but overall they’ve
been pretty slow in doing so.
Tuesday
The UK Labour
Market report is expected to show 114K jobs added in the three months to July
vs. 97K in June, and the Unemployment Rate to tick lower to 4.1% vs. 4.2% prior.
The Average Earnings including Bonus is expected at 4.1% vs. 4.5% prior, while
the Average Earnings excluding Bonus is seen at 5.1% vs. 5.4% prior. The market
sees an 83% probability of no change at the upcoming BoE meeting, and a total
of 43 bps of easing by year-end.
The US NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index is expected at 93.6 vs. 93.7 prior. It’s a pretty empty
week on the data front and the market is very focused on growth, so this
release might be market moving. As a reminder, the NFIB index recently broke out from the range it’s been stuck since 2022 and jumped to a new cycle high at 93.6.
Wednesday
The US CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.6% vs. 2.9% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs. 3.2% prior, while the M/M
figure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior.
The Fed is now
focused on the labour market, and they’ve even stated that upside surprises in
inflation won’t change their overall outlook. Therefore, inflation reports have
less significance at the moment although I’d say that a soft report will likely
push the expectations for a 50 bps cut back around 50% as the it would give the
Fed a stronger excuse to deliver a 50 bps insurance cut.
Thursday
The ECB is
expected to cut by 25 bps and bring the policy rate to 3.50%. This rate cut has
been strongly telegraphed since July. The market expects the central bank to
cut by 25 bps at each subsequent meeting until June 2025. Although President
Lagarde might not explicitly pre-commit to a back-to-back cut in October, it’s
likely that she will keep such an option on the table „depending on the data“.
The US Jobless
Claims continues to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims
have been on a sustained rise (although they’ve improved recently) showing that
layoffs are not accelerating and remain at low levels while hiring is more
subdued.
This week Initial
Claims are expected at 230K vs. 227K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at
1850K vs. 1838K prior.
Friday
The University of
Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected at 68.0 vs. 67.9 prior. This indicator becomes
more important at turning points in the business cycle, so it will be something
the market will keep an eye on given the current focus on growth.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
One reason for the sell-off was a Goldman Sachs note from Peter Oppenheimer arguing that traffic to ChatGPT was plunging. Goldman published this chart, which was later widely circulated (including in the Financial Times). It showed the number of visits to ChatGPT:
The chart was further picked up by the usual suspects who argued that ChatGPT is a gimmick, that Meta/Grok/Anthropic is eating its lunch, that it went woke or whatever other agenda they were pushing.
The truth is embarrassingly simple.
The URL of ChatGPT was changed to chatgpt.com from chat.openai.com.
When you overlay both URLs, here is the traffic:
If anything, traffic has been accelerating.
For ‚the smartest guys in the room‘ this reflects a humiliating lack of critical thought. There was no way that ChatGPT usage ever dropped by +80% in just two months.
Did this mistake wipe out $110 billion from Nvidia’s market cap on Friday (for reference, that’s 72% of Goldman’s market cap)?
I doubt it was the main catalyst but I have no doubt that it hurt. Research and critical thinking are in short supply in this meme-driven world.
As for what does worry me about Nvidia, it’s the lifecycle of the investment boom. The H100 chip is one of the all-time great products and demand for it is stratospheric. By all accounts, that demand will be at least equal for Blackwell, the generation coming late this year.
But analysts are pricing in that level of demand — and growing — every year. That has the forward P/E at 37x for 2025.
The first problem is they need to keep iterating to expand their moat, and that’s tough to do with margins near 80%. Now I wouldn’t bet against them on that, but the amount of money going into chipmaking right now is extraordinary and it’s basically a bet against capitalism.
Secondly, there needs to be a return on investment from the buyers. Right now we have all of megacap tech pouring money into chips but at some point those investments need to deliver returns. Right now we’re pricing in that level of investment year after year and I find it hard to believe that all of those companies will continue spending that much in a tech world that trends towards winner-take-all.
Thirdly, comments from Broadcom CEO Hock Tan on Thursday after earnings point to a major threat to Nvidia demand from those same megacap tech companies:
„I used to think that general-purpose merchant silicon will win at the end of the day. Well, based on history of semiconductors mostly so far, general purpose, small merchant silicon tends to win. But like you, I flipped in my view. And I did that, by the way, last quarter, maybe even 6 months ago. But nonetheless, catching up is good. And I actually think so because I do think there are 2 markets here on AI accelerators. There’s one market for enterprises of the world, and none of these enterprises are incapable nor have the financial resources or interest to create the silicon, the custom silicon, nor the large language models and the software going maybe, to be able to run those AI workloads on custom silicon. It’s too much and there’s no return for them to do it because it’s just too expensive to do it. But there are those few cloud guys, hyperscalers with the scale of the platform and the financial wherewithal for them to make it totally rational, economically rational, to create their own custom accelerators because right now, I’m not trying to overemphasize it, it’s all about compute engines. It’s all about especially training those large language models and enabling it on your platform. It’s all about constraint, to a large part, about GPUs. Seriously, it came to a point where GPUs are more important than engineers, these hyperscalers in terms of how they think. Those GPUs are much more — or XPUs are much more important. And if that’s the case, what better thing to do than bringing the control, control your their own destiny by creating your own custom silicon accelerators. And that’s what I’m seeing all of them do. It’s just doing it at different rates and they’re starting at different times. But they all have started.“
A week ago, everyone was regretting not buying NVDA in the dip to $90 (and the 69% rally to $130 certainly proved those buyers right for a time). But after reading those comments, I’m not so sure I would buy a second dip to $90.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Markets:
Non-farm payrolls Friday lived up to the hype, though it wasn’t exactly straightforward. The kneejerk reaction to the report was dovish and the US dollar sold off significantly as 50 bps cut odds rose to 57%. In that move the euro rose to 1.1154 from 1.1105 and the pound rose 60 pips to 1.3240.
It took about an hour for those moves to fade completely as the market took a second look at the jobs report and started having questions about whether the headline miss and revisions were enough to make up for a slightly improved unemployment rate. The retracement was compounded by Williams, who offered little in the way of a push for 50 bps, instead playing it safe.
The next big move came with the Fed’s Waller. Initially the market latched onto his talk about front loading cuts:
I will be an advocate of front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate.
However the market then took a look at the totality of the speech and particularly a line saying the „labor market is softening but not deteriorating.“ That led to a drop in 50 bps cut odds to 23%.
But there is always reflexivness in markets and that, in turn, caused a rout in stocks and a flight to safety in bonds. That’s a classic case of market kicking-and-screaming that pushed 50 bps odds back up to 31%. For his part, Timiraos weighed in on the 25 bps side but I certainly wouldn’t take that as a leak, though it probably moved markets.
The major volatility in the day came in USD/JPY, which ranged from 141.79 to 143.89 and ultimately finished about 50 pips from the lows. But there were 5 touches on either side of that range as the remarkably-volatile trading continues. Eyes will be on Japan at the open on Monday after a tough week for the Nikkei.
The US jobs report wasn’t the only one released as Canadian unemployment ticked up to 6.6% from 6.4% and is now two percentage points above the lows. The lack of 50 bps from the BOC this week is a troublesome sign of central banks that are behind the curve and a close in brent at the lowest since 2021 certainly doesn’t help the loonie’s case.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
On the day:
On the week:
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Here is what I wrote back in June:
It’s been awhile since we’ve had a ’normal‘ rate cutting cycle so it’s worth a reminder about what happens and what always happens:
The market turns into a whiny teenager. It starts kicking-and-screaming
for rate cuts, with equities bleeding on anything that isn’t overtly
dovish.
If you don’t like that reference, then consider it like a toddler that wants a candy. They always want more and they want it right now. As the father of four young kids, there is no pleasing them.
This is exactly how markets behaved in 2008, in 2016 when rate hikes came too soon and how they behaved during the taper tantrum. The episode in 2019 was slightly less because Powell was seen as easing pre-emptively.
Fed funds target rate history:
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.