There was no lack of drama in the final day of equity trading in what was a wild ride in August. The S&P 500 opened strongly and then gave it all back to trade in negative territory at midday. However some steady bids emerged in the afternoon before a massive wave of buying late.

Much of it was likely technical into a month-end long weekend but it wraps a bow on a lively one.

• S&P 500 1.0%
• Nasdaq Comp +1.1%
• DJIA +0.6%
• Russell 2000 +0.3%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.2%

On the week:

• S&P 500 +0.25%
• Nasdaq Comp -0.9%
• Russell 2000 -0.4%
• Toronto TSX Comp -0.1%

On the month:

• S&P 500 +2.3%
• Nasdaq Comp +0.6%
• DJIA +1.8%
• Russell 2000 -2.0%
• Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%

Those monthly numbers aren’t impressive at first blush but they come after massive selling at the outset.

The Nasdaq Composite monthly chart now shows a double doji. That’s a setup for a big move to come. Given the impressive recovery from the August declines, I’ll take the upside but it’s tough to have confidence after the Nvidia decline and with a negative September seasonal backdrop.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The main driver of US dollar strength over the past number of years was ‚US exceptionalism‘. That’s meant stronger growth and higher US interest rates.

The stronger growth narrative is still in place — even if it requires a deficit at 7% of GDP — but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has deconstructed the second part of narrative. His comments suggest the Fed won’t tolerate a rise above 4.4% and that the FOMC plans to cut rates even with strong growth.

That’s prompted a re-think in the market and some broad softening of the US dollar (at least until today).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs plans to layoff 3-4% of its workforce or between 1300 and 1800 people, according to the WSJ.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise as the company trims 2-7% of its workforce annually on performance factors. The layoffs have started and will continue through the autumn.

The cutthroat culture finally appears to be making shareholders money after trading virtually flat from 2018 to early this year.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB Muller says confidence growth in Sep cut but after that is less certain
• EU commission chief says must play stronger role in defence
• AUD the strongest and CHF the weakest
• Japan’s MOF reports zero yen intervention from July 30 to Aug 28
• Eurozone flash HICP YY 2.2% vs 2.2% expected
• ECB Kazaks says open to discussing a September cut
• BoE consumer credit 1.215B vs 1.300B expected
• Spanish current account balance 5.02B vs 5.56B prior
• China regulator to guide Alibaba towards better compliance and service quality
• German Unemployment Rate 6.0% vs 6.0% expected
• ECB Rehn says falling growth and inflation makes case for a Sep rate cut
• What are money markets expecting from September’s central bank decisions
• ECB’s Schnabel urges caution and emphasizes data-driven policy
• Swiss KOF indicator 101.6 vs 100.6 expected
• French producer prices YY -5.4% vs -6.0% prior
• French GDP QQ final 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• French prelim HICP YY 2.2% vs 2.1% expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Deepening downturn expected in China’s property market for 2024-2025
• UK nationwide house prices YY 2.4% vs 2.9% expected
• German import prices MM -0.4% vs 0.0% expected
• Japan housing starts YY -0.2% vs -0.1% expected
• Japan construction orders YY 62.8% vs -19.7% prior
• BofA looking for EUR outflows and USD inflows
• Mostly messy day for sentiment so far
• What do we have coming up for the calendar today

Markets:

• CAD leads, CHF lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.44%
• US 10-year yields flat at
  3.856%
• Gold
  down 0.05% to $2,519
• WTI
  crude up 0.29% to $76.18
• Bitcoin
  up 0.19% to $59,474

It was a quiet session with subdued moves across the markets. The newsflow was once again a bit dull as the only notable release was the Eurozone Flash CPI which came out in line with estimates.

ECB speakers continue to support a September cut, which is fully priced in anyway, but they emphasize data dependency for the next cuts. The attention will now switch to the US PCE report due in an hour but it’s unlikely to trigger big moves unless we get strong deviations from the expected figures.

It’s all about the next week as we will get many top-tier economic indicators and the most important NFP report of the year.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters poll – U.S. home prices to rise 5.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.4% in 2026 (vs 5.0%, 3.3%, and 3.4% in May poll).Reuters poll – U.S. existing home sales to rise to 4.15 million unit rate in Q4, 4.24 in Q1 2025 (vs 4.28 and 4.40 million in May poll).

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• ECB Muller: confidence is growing in a September rate cut
• ECB Muller: the policy path after the September meeting is less certain

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

EU’s Von der Leyen in Prague at GLOBSEC Forum: Integration of Ukraine in the European Union is for us at the heart of our peace effort.EU’s Von der Leyen: Protecting Europe is first and foremost Europe’s duty.EU’s Von der Leyen: NATO must remain centre of our collective defence but need much stronger European pillar.EU’s Von der Leyen: Central Europe could be one of drivers and one of greatest beneficiaries of this new push for European defence sector.EU’s Von der Leyen: Aim must be to build continent-size defence output, a systemic overhaul of Europe’s defence.EU’s Von der Leyen: We cannot afford any more illusions, the second half of the decade will be high-risk, Europeans must be on guard.EU’s Von der Leyen: We must refocus our attention on the security dimension of everything we do.EU’s Von der Leyen: We must think about our union as intrinsically a security project.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a fairly choppy morning in FX so far.

The AUD is the strongest but neck and neck with the Pound for the strongest on the session.

The CHF is the weakest, with the JPY not to far behind it.

Eurozone data this morning has been mixed with GDP data out of France printing worse than expected while inflation printed higher than expected. Eurozone total HICP YY printed in line with expectations, with the ex food and energy measure printed a bit higher than expected (but remained at the prior of 2.8%).

Nothing in today’s data was enough to change market expectations about ECB rate expectations.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• The AUD and NZD continues to lead the majors on the upside
• US sees limited scope for nuclear talks with China
• Equity futures putting in a solid run so far today
• Eurozone economic sentiment 96.6 vs 95.8 expected
• China’s Xi says committed to stable relationship with US based on win-win cooperation
• Rate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the German statewide CPI data
• EURUSD trades back below 1.11 after German statewide CPI
• German Bayern YY 2.1% vs 2.5% prior
• Remy Cointreau Pernod Ricard shares surge 8% after China skips brandy tariffs
• China’s Commerce Ministry opts against anti-dumping measures on EU brandy
• Riksbank’s Bunge says economy is in a mild recession
• Spanish flash HICP YY 2.4% vs 2.5% expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• Swedish GDP YY 0.5% vs 0.0% expected
• Ukraine strikes oil and artillery depots in Rostov Kirov and Voronezh regions
• Japan consumer confidence index 36.7 vs 36.7 prior
• Risk sentiment leaning slightly positive head of the cash open
• NZDUSD tests close to 0.63 after earlier NZ data
• Finally a day with a bit more excitement on the calendar

Markets:

• NZD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.18%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.829%
• Gold up 0.75% to $2,522
• WTI
  crude up 0.32% to $74.76
• Bitcoin
  up 1.63% to $60,005

It was a more lively session today with some notable moves in the FX and equity markets. The EUR has been the most notable mover in the FX space as the single currency fell on soft German statewide CPI figures. Note though, that the market’s pricing for ECB rates was unchanged.

In the equity space, we’ve seen the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq erasing most of yesterday’s weakness although the lack of catalysts will likely keep the price action rangebound until next week.

Overall though, there wasn’t any notable news release or development in the macro or geopolitical space and we keep waiting for next week where we will get many top-tier economic data including the NFP report.

The attention will now switch to the US jobless claims figures where we will likely need initial claims to spike above the 260K level to trigger a big market reaction.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD and AUD continues to be the best performers so far today.

For the NZD the upside was sparked by the solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook which printed at the highest since 2014. For the AUD the strength looks more driven by overall risk sentiment with the upside in equities likely offering some support.

In terms of the underperformers, the EUR was pressured following a decent deceleration in German statewide CPI data, with 5 of the 6 states printing new cycle lows for CPI.

Looking ahead attention will turn to US data with the release of Q2 GDP 2nd estimate as well as the weekly jobless claims data.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.