Bitcoin was
down 7.2% on Thursday, ending it at around $18,800. Ethereum lost 8.7%, while
other leading altcoins in the top 10 fell from 4.4% (BNB) to 10.6% (Dogecoin).
However, Bitcoin greeted the new day, month and half-year with buying. In a
thin market early in the day with Asia predominantly active, this spurred the
price up 11% to $20,800, quickly deflating to $19,400.

 

In other
words, we see attempts to create the appearance of buying the dip in bitcoin.
Still, the rise in price entails increased selling – a typical sign that
institutional and market professionals are “dumping” the asset to retail
investors guided by the price chart.

 

By Friday,
the cryptocurrency fear and greed index remained unchanged at 11 points
(“extreme fear”).

 

Bitcoin
intensified its decline on Thursday after breaking the $20,000 level. BTC
tested 11-day lows near $18,600 amid a plunge in stock indices.

 

Last month
was one of the worst for bitcoin, with BTC losing 41% of its value, falling
short of historical trends.

 

In terms of
seasonality, July is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11
years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four times. The
average rise was 22%, and the average decline was 9%. In the first case, BTC
could end July at around $23,000. In the second, it could end July at about
$17,000.

 

According to
Deutsche Bank, Bitcoin could recover to $28,000 by the end of 2022 on the back
of a likely rally in US equities.

 

JPMorgan
Bank believes the crypto market could bottom out soon, after which bitcoin and
other crypto-assets will consolidate. Most traders with margin positions have
already washed out of the market.

 

We continue
to maintain our position that there remains a sellers’ advantage, and the
slowest of them will be careful to sell the crypto market on upside attempts.

 

According to
BitInfoCharts, bitcoin’s fall from historic highs has stripped some 75% of
investors (82,600) of their millionaire status.

 

Pantera
Capital founder Dan Morehead is confident that it’s too early to talk about a
“bottom” of the market. He expects several more defaults by companies in the
sector shortly – similar to the story of Three Arrows Capital.

 

OTC
cryptocurrency dealer Genesis Global Trading could face hundreds of millions of
dollars in losses due to the loss of liquidity of counterparties Three Arrows
Capital and Babel Finance.

 

Lee Reiners,
director of the Center for Global Financial Markets at Duke University in North
Carolina, believes digital currencies have no real value and should be banned.

 

This article was written by FxPro’s Senior Market Analyst Alex
Kuptsikevich.

 

This article was written by FxPro FXPro at www.forexlive.com.

European indices have pared the early declines while US futures have trimmed the drop from earlier with S&P 500 futures now down just 8 points, or 0.2%, after having been down by around 45 points earlier. Here’s a look at the equities space:

• Eurostoxx +0.1%
• Germany DAX +0.3%
• France CAC 40 +0.4%
• UK FTSE +0.2%
• S&P 500 futures -0.2%
• Nasdaq futures -0.3%
• Dow futures -0.1%

There’s not much of a catalyst for the turnaround but at least investors are not throwing in the towel just yet with there being some slight optimism. I’m still skeptical of the overall mood until we see what Wall Street has to offer, especially with the long weekend looming just around the corner.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Dollar holds more mixed with month-end, quarter-end in focus
• Risk appetite sapped as the session gets underway
• France June preliminary CPI +5.8% vs +5.7% y/y expected
• Germany June unemployment change +133k vs -6k expected
• Germany May retail sales +0.6% vs +0.5% m/m expected
• Germany May import prices +0.9% vs +1.6% m/m expected
• UK Q1 final GDP +0.8% vs +0.8% q/q second estimate
• UK June Nationwide house prices +0.3% vs +0.5% m/m expected

Markets:

• JPY leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 1.5%
• US 10-year yields down 5.6 bps to 3.037%
• Gold down 0.7% to $1,805.33
• WTI crude down 0.9% to $108.84
• Bitcoin down 5.9% to $18,995

A glance at markets would suggest a typical risk-off kind of day but that hasn’t really translated to much significant action in FX, for the most part at least.

Equities slumped early on with US futures being pummeled lower as the focus rests on month-end and quarter-end trading. That dragged European stocks down as well, erasing a lot of the good work from last week.

Treasuries were bid throughout with 2-year yields dipping back below 3% and commodities were also sold, with gold and oil both looking rather heavy on the session. Elsewhere, even Bitcoin slumped back below $20,000 and is in a battle to try and thwart obscurity at the moment.

The yen was a notable gainer on the session but a push lower in USD/JPY to 136.00 was quickly bid back up to 136.20-30 levels, as it is now – still down 0.2% on the day. The euro lagged as it continues to struggle for love from investors with EUR/USD falling back below 1.0400 for the first time in two weeks in a drop from 1.0450 to 1.0385.

GBP/USD was mostly little changed but is seen now down 0.2% to near 1.2100 as the dollar keeps a modest advance after a slow start. USD/CHF also recovered to push to 0.9600 only to drop back to 0.9570-80 levels now.

Against commodity currencies, the dollar is mostly little changed though USD/CAD is back up above 1.2900 with the help of some selling in oil. WTI crude is down 0.9% to $108.84 currently.

Well, it’s all about getting over the month-end and quarter-end hump today. But with tomorrow being a Friday and a long weekend in the US beckoning (Monday is 4th of July), it may be tough to read into much of the moves before next week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

After this concludes, the ministerial meeting will follow. There should not be any surprises as OPEC+ sticks to the status quo. A preview from earlier in the day here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I never quite like the uncertainty and potential messiness that month-end flows have to offer. Sure, they’re great to fade but it’s never a guarantee especially now when there are also so many other moving parts in the market.

Risk tones are keeping softer on the day with European indices down between 1.7% to 2.3% while S&P futures are down 1.3% on the session currently. Treasury yields are holding softer but that has yet to translate to much meaningful action in major currencies, at least in my view.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.0415 after a bit of a climb to 1.0460 earlier and sellers are looking to pressure the double-bottom around 1.0365-70 on the charts:

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 136.30 after having hit a low of 135.97 earlier in the day with little conviction despite the more dour risk sentiment. Even commodity currencies are little changed against the dollar on the day.

The only decent mover is the franc as it gives back the gains from yesterday with USD/CHF rising up 0.4% to near 0.9600. EUR/CHF is also trading back up from 0.9970 to near 1.0000 again at the moment.

It’s tough to really get much conviction out there today and with month-end and quarter-end in focus, it will be tougher to digest any moves as well. Not only that, it will be a long weekend in the US with the 4th of July being a holiday and that will also make for a tricky close to the week tomorrow before the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior 6.8%

The euro area unemployment rate fell to a new record low in May as the pandemic rebound continues to play out. In terms of numbers, the data shows a drop from 11.085 million persons without jobs in April to 11.004 million in May.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There’s quite a bit of change to the expiries board for today and tomorrow, with a host of expiries seen for EUR/USD tomorrow. That said, there are only a couple of large ones to be mindful of between 1.0540 to 1.0600.

Interestingly, there are also some largish expiries for USD/JPY again after a period of time where it has been somewhat lacking interest. We’ll see if that carries over to next week.

In any case, there isn’t much to really take note of for today considering where price action currently is. That will keep risk sentiment alongside month-end and quarter-end flows as the key focus in the day ahead.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

 

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +4.2%
• Market index 322.7 vs 320.4
• Purchase index 243.1 vs 242.8
• Refinancing index 726.1 vs 712.7
• 30-year mortgage rate 5.84% vs 5.98% prior

A slight rise in mortgage activity was seen last week after what I would say was a bit of a rush in home buying before the Fed raised rates again. The average rate of the most popular mortgage tenor did drop by 14 bps to 5.84%, but it still isn’t of much comfort to prospective home owners I would say after having seen a 33 bps rise in the week prior.

US dollar

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Central banks need to be resolute in acting to bring inflation down
• Policymakers cannot be complacent about a rise in longer-term inflation expectations
• Current inflation situation is a very challenging one
• Our policy communications are important for keeping inflation well anchored

Nothing new really by Mester. As mentioned earlier, markets have already more or less priced in a 75 bps rate hike next month and it’s tough to see the Fed go beyond that.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.