The dollar is down to the lows for the day currently
It’s all about the ebb and flow this week and as much as the dollar has run hot in the past few weeks, things just aren’t going the way for the greenback at the moment.

Forex news from the European trading session – 13 October 2021
Headlines:
Markets:
– CHF leads, USD lags on the day
– European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%

Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter
That’s a sharp revision lower and amid the ongoing supply bottlenecks, it is not hard to see why. Adding to that is fears of rising inflation as well as the energy crisis in Europe, weighing on overall sentiment in general.

Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 8 October 2021
– -6.9%
A modest increase in mortgage activity despite higher rates once again, with the jump in purchases offsetting the decline in refinancing applications. That said, with higher rates and high prices, it will pose a challenge to demand conditions in the

Remarks by China’s state planner
Adding that local governments will be strictly prohibited from shutting down coal mines without authorisation. Meanwhile, an energy administration official is out at the same time stating that China’s daily coal output has reached its highest level since February.

Latest data released by Eurostat – 13 October 2021
Essentially, it seems like supply and capacity constraints are weighing on factory output so expect more sluggishness to follow in the months ahead.

More JPY weakness despite risk off start to session
Other markets
The wall of worry spoken about in yesterday’s wrap returned overnight. The sheer list of concerns is telling in itself: Evergrande default anxiety, supply chain complexities and delays, inflation fears with even Japan bucking its deflationary trend, and energy prices precariously high all have traders angsty. 

Gut vs analytical 
There are basically two types of thinking that we do: 
The automatic is your gut feel. The longer you have traded the more you should trust your gut feel. The analytical part of your mind is that part of you that slows down to think. The part of you that needs to sit down

Dollar smile theory
It is helpful. 
Do you ever get confused when you are trading the USD? It is understandable. The USD has different drivers at different times.
 

Be plain 
One of the often overlooked aspects of trading is that not every single instrument is equal. Some are more expensive than others, some are more volatile than others.