On the change, OPEC says that softening expectations for China’s oil demand is the main reason for that. But the bloc maintains that despite a slow start to the summer driving season, fuel demand is expected to remain „solid due to healthy road and air mobility“.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
All the focus and attention this week is on the US CPI report on Wednesday. But just before that, we will be getting the same report from the UK as well. The thing is given base effects, it is estimated that headline annual inflation in the UK is going to increase from 2.0% in June to 2.3% in July. That will mark the first increase in said reading since December last year.
Logically, this plays into the view among major central banks now that the disinflation process is going to encounter some „bumps along the road“. But this is a market that was very much driven by emotions for the past week or so. As such, market players may not be as composed as you would expect in seeking out a logical reaction initially.
The key detail though will be the core annual inflation reading. That is estimated to hold similar to June at 3.5%. If so, that is likely to help calm the nerves among traders. However, if there is an upside surprise there, then we could see risk trades start to get a bit jittery again ahead of the US CPI report later on in that day.
The BOE already made a cut to its bank rate in a knife-edge call at the start of this month here. They followed that up in saying that markets should not expect continuous rate cuts. And that is precisely what is priced right now. Traders are only seeing ~36% odds of a rate cut in September. So, the inflation numbers this week could seal the deal for a no change decision.
To summarise, I wouldn’t underestimate the impact of the UK report for broader market sentiment. It could yet produce keep traders on edge in fear that the US numbers might also be sticky. Although, I doubt that will be the case. The disinflation process in the US is still ongoing, albeit very gradually. And this week’s numbers should stick with that trend and narrative. But we’ll see about that and stay mindful for any surprises that could come along the way.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The losses peaked for the
Canadian Dollar last Monday as the volatility normalised, and we got some good
US data throughout the week. That helped to turn around the risk sentiment and
give the Loonie a boost.
The market has been slowly
paring back the aggressive rate cuts expectations for the Fed as now a 25 bps
cut in September is seen as more likely with a total of 98 bps of easing by
year-end. On the BoC side, the market is fully pricing a 25 bps cut in
September and a total of 73 bps of easing by year-end.
USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD spiked above the 1.3860 resistance last Monday due to the global stock
market rout but eventually gave back all the gains as the mood in the market
improved.
The sellers piled in at
every break lower and extended the drop into the 1.3720 level. The natural
target should be the strong support zone around the 1.36 handle. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the 1.3785 level again
to regain some control and position for new highs.
USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is consolidating around the 1.3720 level. The sellers will
want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.36
handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely keep on stepping in around
the lows with a defined risk below to position for a rally into a new cycle
high.
USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action formed a descending triangle. The price can
break on either side of the pattern but follows next is generally a more
sustained move in the direction of the breakout. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the US PPI data. On Wednesday, we have the US CPI report. On
Thursday, we get the US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on
Friday, we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
survey.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
The moves point to a further relaxing to the carry trade unwind as risk sentiment is keeping steadier. USD/JPY in particular is up 0.5% to 147.30 levels now but is keeping just near the topside of the recent bounce from last week:
It’s not much of a suggestion that we are due a stronger retracement after the sharp fall in July. But buyers are trying to wrestle back some near-term momentum at least. The slow grind higher on the session now sees price move back above its 200-hour moving average of 147.18. It is the first time in four weeks that price action is trading above the key near-term level.
So, that will be one to watch in trying to gauge sentiment in the pair over the next few sessions.
Besides that, USD/CHF is up 0.3% to 0.8680 and also pushing past the same key near-term level as per USD/JPY.
That suggests buyers are back in near-term control but it is still early days. That especially as market players are also going to be watching key US data in the days ahead for more clues.
The euro, sterling, and loonie are all little changed otherwise in the major currencies space. However, the aussie and kiwi are posting slight gains with AUD/USD up 0.4% to near 0.6600 and NZD/USD up 0.5% to 0.6025 currently.
In other markets, S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% while European indices have seen their early gains turn into marginal ones now. So, it’s not that straightforward to kick things off in the new week.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Tuesday
The Australian
Wage Price Index Y/Y is expected at 4.0% vs. 4.1% prior, while the Q/Q measure
is seen at 0.9% vs. 0.8% prior. The RBA stated that wage growth appeared to have peaked but it
remains above the level consistent with their inflation target.
The UK
Unemployment Rate is expected at 4.5% vs. 4.4% prior. The Average Earnings
Ex-Bonus is expected at 5.4% vs. 5.7% prior, while the Average Earnings incl.
Bonus is seen at 4.6% vs. 5.7% prior.
As a reminder, the
BoE cut interest rates by 25 bps at the last meeting bringing the Bank Rate
to 5.00%. The market is assigning a 62% probability of no change at the
upcoming meeting and a total of 43 bps of easing by year-end.
The US PPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 2.6% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2%
prior. The Core PPI Y/Y is expected at 2.7% vs. 3.0% prior, while the M/M
reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.4% prior. The market will focus more on the US
CPI release the following day.
Wednesday
The RBNZ is
expected to cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 5.25%. The market started
to price in a reduction at the upcoming meeting as the central bank leant to a
more dovish stance at its latest policy decision. In fact, the RBNZ stated that “the Committee
expected headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 percent target range
in the second half of this year” which was followed by the line “The
Committee agreed that monetary policy will need to remain restrictive. The
extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the
expected decline in inflation pressures”.
The UK CPI Y/Y is
expected at 2.3% vs. 2.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at -0.2% vs.
0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.5% vs. 3.5% prior. Softer figures
will likely increase the market’s expectation for a back-to-back cut in
September, but it’s unlikely that they will change that much given that we
will get another CPI report before the next BoE decision.
The US CPI Y/Y is
expected at 3.0% vs. 3.0% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs.
-0.1% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2% vs. 3.3% prior, while the M/M
reading is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.1% prior.
This report
won’t change the markets expectations for a rate cut in September as that’s a given.
What could change is the difference between a 25 bps and a 50 bps cut. In fact,
right now the market is basically split equally between a 25 bps and a 50 bps
cut in September.
In case the data
beats estimates, we should see the market pricing a much higher chance of a 25
bps cut. A miss shouldn’t change much but will keep the chances of a 50 bps cut
alive for now.
Thursday
The Australian
Labour Market report is expected to show 12.5K jobs added in July vs. 50.2K in
June and the Unemployment Rate to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Although the labour
market softened, it remains fairly tight.
The RBA
delivered a more hawkish than expected decision last week which saw the market repricing rate cuts
from 46 bps to 23 bps by year-end. Unless we get big surprises, the data shouldn’t change much.
The US Retail
Sales M/M is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.0% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M measure is
seen at 0.1% vs. 0.4% prior. The Control Group M/M is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.9%
prior. Although we’ve been seeing some softening, overall consumer spending
remains stable.
The US Jobless
Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week
as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market.
Initial Claims
remain inside the 200K-260K range created since 2022, while Continuing Claims have
been on a sustained rise showing that layoffs are not accelerating and remain
at low levels while hiring is more subdued.
This week Initial
Claims are expected at 235K vs. 233K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at
1871K vs. 1875K prior.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
Mon: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report; Japanese Market Holiday (Mountain Day), German Retail Sales (May), Indian Trade Balance (Jul)Tue: IEA Oil Market Report, Australian Wage Price Index (Q2), UK Jobs (Jun/Jul), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US PPI (Jul)Wed: RBNZ Announcement and Quarterly MPS, Bank of Israel Announcement, UK Inflation (Jul), Swedish CPIF (Jul), Indian WPI (Jul), EZ GDP Flash (Q2), US CPI (Jul)Thu: PBoC MLF, Norges Announcement, Italy Market Holiday (Assumption Day), Japanese GDP (Q2), Australian Jobs (Jul), Chinese Activity Data (Jul), UK GDP (Jun), US Retail Sales (Jul), US Philly Fed (Aug)Fri: UK Retail Sales (Jul), US University of Michigan Prelim (Aug)
Note, previews are listed in day order.UK Jobs (Tue):
As usual, wages will be the key point of focus for the BoE from this release. In May, the headline and ex-bonus metrics both moderated to 5.7% as expected, a release which was judged at the time to have not significantly changed the calculus into the BoE’s August decision. Furthermore, almost all metrics for that month’s release printed in-line with consensus. This time, Morgan Stanley looks for ex-bonus wages to print in-line with the BoE’s view but with some risk of an upward revision to the May data. As always, the release will be key for BoE pricing and the calculus for September, however the wage metrics may well be superseded by the week’s CPI print and the knowledge of a sizeable upcoming public sector increase via recent wage negotiations which average out at around 5.5%. Finally, it is worth caveating that the data continues to be subject to reliability issues.RBNZ Announcement (Wed):
The RBNZ is to hold a policy meeting next week where there are mixed views regarding the Official Cash Rate with 19 out of 31 economists surveyed by Reuters expecting rates to be kept unchanged at 5.50% and 12 are forecasting a 25bps cut, while money markets have recently shifted to pricing greater chances of a cut following softer inflation expectations with OIS pointing to an 84% probability for a reduction and just a 16% chance for rates to be maintained at the current level. As a reminder, the RBNZ kept the Official Cash Rate unchanged at the last meeting as unanimously expected, while it maintained its rhetoric that the Committee agreed the OCR will need to remain restrictive but provided a dovish tilt in which it stated that the extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures. The RBNZ also commented that some domestically generated price pressures remain strong although there are signs inflation persistence will ease in line with the fall in capacity pressures and business pricing intentions, while it also stated that current and expected government spending will restrain overall spending in the economy. Furthermore, the minutes from the meeting revealed that the Committee is confident inflation will return to within its 1%-3% target range over the second half of 2024 and that the appropriate stance of monetary policy was discussed at the meeting. There haven’t been many updates from the RBNZ since the last meeting, while the recent data had mostly supported the case for a continued pause including New Zealand CPI Y/Y for Q2 which softened to 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 4.0%) but remained above the target range, while employment data in Q2 beat estimates with surprise jobs growth of 0.4% (Exp. -0.2%) and the Unemployment Rate was less than feared at 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.3%) despite an unexpected increase in the Participation Rate to 71.7% vs. Exp. 71.3% (Prev. 71.5%). Labour Cost Index was also firmer than expected during the previous quarter with QQ growth at 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%) and Y/Y growth at 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.8%) which could compel policymakers to remain patient to avoid stoking inflationary pressures. However, the recent release of softer inflation expectations resulted in a shift in market pricing which is now heavily leaning towards a cut.US CPI (Wed):
After June’s downside surprise, analysts expect US consumer prices will rise +0.2% M/M in July (prev. -0.1%), taking the annual rate to 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 3.0%). The core rate of CPI is seen rising +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.1%), and the annual rate of core consumer prices is seen easing to 3.2% Y/Y (prev. 3.3%). For reference, the Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcasting is tracking headline inflation rising +0.24% M/M in July and 3.01% Y/Y; the core rate is tracking 0.27% M/M, and is tracking 3.33% Y/Y, which would suggest some risks of upside for the latter relative to the consensus. Bank of America sees headline inflation rising 0.25% M/M unrounded due to the pickup in core services inflation and energy prices, and expects the annual rate will be unchanged at 3.0% Y/Y; it sees core CPI rising 0.22% M/M (unrounded), stating that „while this is not quite as low as June, it is in line with prior trend in deflation and should meet the Fed’s benchmark for beginning rate cuts in September.“ On core services inflation, BofA notes that the core services ex-rent and owners equivalents rents (OER) edged down in June on a decline in airfares, but in July, it expects the decline in airfares to be much more moderate. It also notes that shelter prices should pick up, but expects the deceleration in rents and OER to hold. „Should the July CPI report print in line with our expectations, we would maintain our expectation for the Fed to start its cutting cycle in September and deliver 50bps in rate cuts this year.“ BofA acknowledges that financial markets are pricing in more than 100bps of rate reductions this year, and some debate over the likelihood of a larger up-front cut or an inter-meeting move, but it does not think that the current situation meets the bar for action.UK Inflation (Wed):
The June BoE MPR forecast for Q3 CPI stands at 2.3%, a figure which would be a modest tick up from the 2.0% rate that has been in place for the last two months and the 2.1% average across Q2. For July, Pantheon expects the rate to tick up to 2.2%, upside which is likely to be driven by base-effects from Ofgem utility price adjustments in 2023 which saw a much more sizeable reduction than the cut announced in July 2024. On a core basis, the Y/Y is seen averaging 3.4% across Q3 (vs 3.6% in Q2) while from a services perspective, Morgan Stanley expect the Y/Y rate to moderate to 5.4% vs BoE expectations of 5.56%. However, they caveat this welcome development for the BoE by noting services have the potential to lift back above forecast in August’s print which will be released on the eve of September’s announcement. For the BoE, the July release will add to the debate among the five who voted for a cut, and particularly for the ‘some members’ of that group for whom the decision to cut was a finely balanced one due to the assessment that “inflationary persistence had not yet conclusively dissipated, and there remained some upside risks to the outlook.”. Currently, pricing implies the next cut in November (-31bps) with around a 30% chance of a move in September; CPI aside, the recent PMIs were upbeat on growth ahead which, with core inflation still set to be well above the 2.0% mark and CPI itself expected to rebound back above the official target, means that a back-to-back cut is perhaps unlikely to be the base case for September, but of course cannot be ruled out at this stage. (i.e. in-fitting with current pricing).PBoC MLF (Thu):
The PBoC will conduct its Medium-term Lending Facility operation next week in which it is likely to maintain the 1-year MLF rate at the current level of 2.30% following last month’s reductions in short-term funding rates. As a reminder, the central bank had initially opted to maintain the 1-year MLF rate at 2.50% during its regular mid-monthly operation on July 15th but then surprised markets with unexpected cuts to its short-term funding rates a week later including the 7-day reverse repo rate which was lowered by 10bps to 1.70% from 1.80%, while Chinese banks then followed through with similar magnitude cuts to the benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates which were reduced to 3.35% and 3.85%, respectively. The PBoC also lowered its Standing Lending Facility rates by 10bps across all maturities and unexpectedly conducted a second MLF operation for the month on July 25th in which it cut the 1-year MLF rate by 20bps to 2.30%. Therefore, given the recent bout of cuts to funding rates, it is unlikely that the central will be in a rush to adjust rates so soon, while mixed data releases from China including the miss on exports, stronger-than-expected imports, and firmer inflation also support a patient approach.Norges Bank Announcement (Thu):
Overall, the Norges Bank is not expected to make any adjustments to forward guidance or rates at the interim meeting as we await the Q3 Regional Network Report on 12th September before the 19th September policy announcement which includes an MPR. This meeting instead will be the opportunity for the bank to revise its path, if developments merit it by this point with the development of CPI-ATE being a dovish factor thus far. July’s CPI printed at 3.3% for the CPI-ATE Y/Y measure, a print which was in line with market expectations and some 0.3pp below the Norges Bank’s own view for the month, though the release spurred no real reaction and is unlikely to change expectations for the August meeting. Beforehand, June’s CPI came in a touch softer than expected but also failed to spur any real reaction at the time. Last time, the Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.50% as expected but provided a particularly hawkish adjustment to forward guidance with all probability of a 2024 rate cut removed and a very slim technical skew towards tightening being more likely than cutting for the remainder of 2024.Japanese GDP (Thu):
Japanese Q2 GDP is seeing rising 0.5%, from the prior decline of 0.7%. The forecast range sees a low of 0.6% and a high of 3.0%. Since the last Q1 GDP metrics, Japan made an unscheduled revision to GDP, revealing that the economy contracted more than initially reported in Q1 2024. The revised data shows an annualised decline of 2.9% compared to the previously estimated 1.8% contraction. This revision was primarily due to corrections in construction orders data, highlighting inaccuracies in the initial estimates. Analysts at Deloitte anticipate that „real GDP growth will begin to recover in the second half of 2024.“ Stronger wage growth and more moderate inflation are expected to boost consumer spending, while a weak currency is likely to drive export growth. Although these factors should collectively improve economic conditions, Deloitte expects growth to be „relatively modest.“Australian Jobs (Thu):
The Australian economy is forecasted to add 12.5k jobs in July, against June’s 50.2k. Within the release, participation rate and unemployment rate are anticipated to remain at 66.9% and 4.1%, respectively. In June, Australian employment surged significantly, with net employment rising by 50,200, far surpassing the expected 20,000. Full-time employment contributed 43,300 to the increase, marking a second consecutive month of strong growth. Despite the job gains, the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.1% from 4.0%, contrary to expectations of it remaining steady. This rise was due to an increase in the labour force participation rate, which climbed to near a record high of 66.9%. Desks suggested that despite the robust job growth, there are signs of slackening in the labour market, as indicated by the upward trend in the unemployment rate. However, the market remains tight overall. As a reminder, the most recent RBA meeting saw no major surprises as it kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% while it also stuck to its hawkish tone – although Governor Bullock at the presser clarified that a rate hike was discussed.Chinese Activity Data (Thu):
Retail Sales are expected to come in at 2.0% (prev. 2.0%), Industrial Output is seen at 5.2% (prev. 5.3%), and Urban Investments are seen at 3.9% (prev. 3.9%), and as usual, it will be closely watched to gauge the health of the Chinese economy. Using PMI data and commentary as a proxy, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July fell to 49.8 from 51.8 in June, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This reading was below analysts‘ expectations of 51.5 and marked the lowest level since October last year. The official manufacturing PMI also showed a decline. The drop in PMI was largely attributed to the first fall in new orders in a year, driven by subdued demand and client budget cuts. The decline in new orders primarily affected investment and intermediate goods, while the consumer goods sector experienced slight expansion in July. Caixin’s Chief Economist suggested the primary issues plaguing the manufacturing sector include „insufficient domestic demand and weak market optimism.“ In terms of the prior release, industrial output in China increased by 5.3% in June Y/Y (vs exp. 5.0%), a slight slowdown from the 5.6% growth observed in May. Retail sales rose by 2.0% in June (vs exp. 3.3%), a significant decline from the 3.7% growth recorded in May. Fixed asset investment grew by 3.9% in the first half of 2024, aligning with expectations.US Retail Sales (Thu):
US retail sales are seen rising +0.3% M/M in July (prev. 0.0%), with the ex-autos measure seen rising +0.1 M/M (prev. +0.4%), while the Control Group is seen +0.1% M/M (prev. +0.9%). Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data, which aggregates credit and debit card spending per household, declined -0.4% Y/Y in July (prev. -0.5% Y/Y in June). The report said that within the total, services spending was stronger than goods, but international travel was a highlight. BofA said that the labour market is showing more signs of cooling, but for now, its internal data on after-tax wages and salaries growth remains supportive of consumer spending. „We think households have managed to eke out some volume growth in their spending despite the weaker growth in nominal spending per household; to do this, consumers are becoming more price sensitive, and we see stronger spending in value groceries and clothing than in these categories overall,“ it wrote, adding that „one reason for increased price sensitivity may be the diminishing savings buffers consumers have, especially after allowing for inflation. But while deposits have fallen back, in our view, they remain modestly supportive of the consumer.“UK Retail Sales (Fri):
Morgan Stanley sees UK retail sales ex-fuel falling 0.3% in July, noting that “maybe it’s the rain, maybe it’s the level of rates, maybe it’s the level of prices of discretionary retail goods – but the consumer is not quite ready to spend yet.” Nonetheless, according to industry data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC), Retail Sales in the UK saw a recovery in July 2024, with a Y/Y increase of 0.5% (vs prev. -0.2% in June). BRC noted a notable increase in purchases of summer clothes and health and beauty products, driven by the arrival of warm weather and consumer preparation for outdoor activities and holidays. Conversely, spending on Furniture and Household Appliances weakened as consumers prioritised holidays and entertainment over indoor goods, resulting in negative growth for non-food items, particularly in-store sales. BRC also observed that with election uncertainty resolved, retailers are now looking towards the Autumn Budget for relief from business rates rises and potential reforms promised in Labour’s manifesto. Meanwhile, KPMG added that while summer staples have driven growth, the upturn is less significant than expected for this critical period. Televised sports events have boosted sales of electronics, such as TVs and tablets, but big-ticket purchases remain subdued. KPMG added that many households face financial pressure due to increased mortgage and rent costs, leading to cautious spending.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk
This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman delivered a wide-ranging speech touching on monetary policy, banking regulation, and liquidity concerns. On mon pol, Bowman stressed caution regarding potential rate cuts, citing persistent upside inflation risks despite recent progress. She noted that core PCE inflation averaged 3.4% annualized in H1 2024, well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Bowman highlighted several factors that could keep inflation elevated, including normalization of supply chains, geopolitical risks, and potential fiscal stimulus. She also raised concerns about immigration potentially driving up housing costs in some areas.
On the labor market, Bowman acknowledged signs of cooling but pointed to measurement challenges and data revisions complicating the assessment. She advocated for a patient approach to policy decisions, saying the Fed needs to avoid overreacting to single data points.
This is certainly a pushback on the 49% chance of 50 bps being priced in for the September meeting.
Quotable:
„Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment.“
„But we need to be patient and avoid undermining continued progress on lowering inflation by overreacting to any single data point.“
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
It seems like ages ago, but on Monday, it seemed like markets were on the precipice. The Japan’s Nikkei 225 index on Monday fell -12.4% and analysts were figuring out where the circuit breakers would be. There were chatter on how the Fed needed to have an emergency meeting and cut rates by 75 basis points. The market priced in with 100% certainty 50 basis point cuts in September and November. Yields fell sharply.
However services ISM data didn’t come in as week, and the markets settled. By the end of the week, the flow of funds in the Forex market reversed their risk on/risk off trends. US yields erased the declines and moved higher. The US stock markets nearly erased over 3% declines in the S&P and Nasdaq indices with each closing just marginally lower.
In trading today, the USD closed mixed with gains vs the AUD and NZD and declines vs the JPY, GBP and CHF . The greenback was little changed vs the EUR and CAD.
The USDCAD is virtually unchanged after their employment data came out mixed today. The unemployment rate was unchanged from last month. The employment change was negative by 2.8K vs expectations of a gain of 22.5K, but making it not so bad, is there was a gain of 61.6K in full-time jobs. The part-time jobs felt -64.4K.
The JPY was the strongest of the major currencies today and the weakest vs the AUD.
For the trading week, the USD was mixed vs the major currencies. The greenback rose vs the CHF and GBP, but fell vs the CAD, AUD and NZD as traders bounced back those risk off/commodity currrencies. The USD was little changes vs the EUR and the JPY.
In the US debt market, the 2-year yield is closing near the high, while the longer end is trading near lows for the day as the yield curve gets flatter. For the week, the yields are closing higher after falls on Monday on the recession fears.
Looking at other markets:
IN the US equities, the major indices closed higher for the day, but although the sharp declines on Monday could not be fully recouped, most of the declines were recovered..
The S&P index was the closest to positive territory with a decline of -0.04% for the week. The NASDAQ index closed lower by -0.18%.
Thnak you for your support. Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are currently on pace for a negative close. If it remains that way, it would represent the fourth consecutive down week for each of those indices.
At current levels, the S&P at 5345.02 is marginally lower by -0.04% – nearly unchanged on the week. The close last week was 5346.55.
The NASDAQ index is negative by -0.18 at 16747.09. The close last week was 16776.16.
It will be close, especially for the S&P, but it will take a late week run higher to snap the losing streak.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
For the trading week, the prices closing up $3.32 or 4.51%. The gain this week comes after four straight weeks of declines. The low price it this week reached $71.67 which was the lowest level since February 5. The price is also closing higher for the 4th consecutive day today
Geopolical tensions remain high in the Middle East as Israel awaits Iran’s response to last week’s assassination of a senior official in Hamas military group in Tehran. Higher-than-expected joint inflation also contributed to the better tone in trading today.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.