The US CPI and Retail sales will dominate the economic releases next week. The RBNZ will announce their interest rate decision on Wednesday in NZ.

Tuesday August 13

• 9:30 PM ET: AUD Wage Price Index q/q (Estimate: 0.9%, Prior: 0.8%)
• 2 AM ET: GBP Claimant Count Change (Estimate: 14.5K, Prior: 32.3K), GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Estimate: 6.5%, Prior: 6.9%)
• 8:30 AM ET USD Core PPI m/m (Estimate: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%);USD PPI m/m (Estimate: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%)

Wedneday August 14

• 10 PM ET NZD NZD Official Cash Rate (Estimate: 5.50%, Prior: 5.50%) RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, Rate Statement, and
• 11 PM ET NZD Press Conference
• 2 AM ET GBP CPI y/y (Estimate: 3.0%, Prior: 3.0%)
• 8:30 AM meeting USD Core CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%);USD CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.2%, Prior: 0.1%)
• 3:30 PM ET: NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (Estimate: N/A, Prior: N/A)

Thursday August 15

• 9:30 PM ET AUD Unemployment Rate (Estimate: 4.1%, Prior: 4.1%); Employment Change (Estimate: 26.0K, Prior: 50.2K)
• 10 PM to CNY Industrial Production y/y (Estimate: 5.4%, Prior: 5.3%)
• 10 PM meeting CNY Retail Sales y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Prior: 3.1%)
• 2 AM ET GBP GDP m/m (Estimate: 0.1%, Prior: 0.4%); GBP Prelim GDP q/q (Estimate: 0.6%, Prior: 0.7%)
• 8:30 AM ET USD Retail Sales m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Prior: 0.0%); USD Core Retail Sales m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Prior: 0.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET USD Unemployment Claims (Estimate: 239K, Prior: 233K)
• 8:30 AM ET USD Empire State Manufacturing Index (Estimate: -5.9, Prior: -6.6)
• 8:30 AM ET USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Estimate: 6.6, Prior: 13.9)

Friday August 16

• 7:30 PM ET AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
• 2 AM to GBP Retail Sales m/m (Estimate: 0.8%, Prior: -1.2%)
• 30 Amy to USD Building Permits (Estimate: 1.44M, Prior: 1.45M)
• today meeting USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Estimate: 67.3, Prior: 66.4); USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (Estimate: 2.9%, Prior: 2.9%)

As for the earnings calendar, HomeDepot, and Cisco highlight as most of the big names have already reported. Nvidia is still to come but won’t announce until August 28th.

Monday

Tuesday

• Before Open: ON Holding, The Home Depot

Wednesday

• Before Open: Dole, UBS
• After Close: Cisco

Thursday

• Before Open: Alibaba, Walmart, JD.com, John Deere
• After Close: Applied Materials, H&R Block

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

These comments from Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt caught my attention:

The next 20 years will be an unprecedented period for electricity build-out. The electrification of industrial capacity, automobiles, heating for houses, and other uses is driving unprecedented growth in the demand for electricity. On top of that, the world is adding data centers for Al and cloud computing at a stunning pace.

To put this in perspective, the global installed capacity for electricity is approximately 8,000 gigawatts. To meet expected demand, this installed capacity will need to expand to more than 20,000 gigawatts in the next 20 years. In addition, nearly half of what exists today will need to be retired, as it is very carbon-intensive. Said differently, we need to more than double the current capacity (which was largely built over the past 50 years) while also replacing approximately 50% of what we have. Nothing like this has ever been attempted, but it is essential in order to reach the world’s net-zero goals and drive the Al revolution.

All this needs to happen in a world where it’s never been tougher to build large projects due to costs, financing, liability, regulation and litigiousness. I envision a future where few can take steady electricity demand for granted and elections are regularly won by who can better keep the lights on.

See also: A perfect storm is about to hit global power grids

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Wharton professor and frequent market commentator Jeremy Siegel caused a stir on Monday by calling for an emergency 75 basis point rate cut as markets melted down. He doubled down by calling for another 75 bps in September „at minimum.“

Skip ahead a few days and he has had a change of heart.

“I no longer certainly think it’s necessary. But I want [Powell] to move
down to 4% as fast as possible,” Siegel said to CNBC.
“Would it be bad? No. But would it be necessary? No, not at this time.”

The market is pricing a 55% chance of 50 bps on Sept 18 and a 45% chance of 25 bps with 104 bps priced in through year end.

So what’s the lesson here?

The main one is that when people on TV like Siegel, Bill Ackman or Jim Cramer are panicking, it’s often a buy signal, or at least a signal that cooler heads are no longer in charge. It also highlights what’s likely to happen if things in the economy ever do get bad and that the Fed put worked.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has perked up in the past few minutes, rising a few dollars to $2430.

That comes after a large gain yesterday and a series of higher lows over the past month. Those are reasons for optimism.

However the main feature on the daily chart is a double top near $2475.

So higher lows vs a double top? Where do I come down?

A couple things sway me towards the bullish camp.

1) The pattern may be more of a consolidation from $2360-$2475 than a double top.

2) Speculative position was washed out.

Gold had a rough ride late last week and on Monday as global markets turned ugly. I’ve often highlighted that gold does well when things are bad but not when they’re really bad. That was the case Monday as the Nikkei fell 12%, US tech was beaten up and the VIX hit 60.

That triggered a run on specs, which were at eye-watering levels in the weekly CFTC report:

I would guess we will see a further drop in gold specs in the CFTC data due out later today. That will show that some of the speculative froth has been removed from gold.

The one thing that makes me cautious is the Middle East. The market has still priced in some chance of an Iran-Israel war or some wider hostilities but that’s looking less likely. It’s always tough to gauge how much of a geopolitical premium is priced in but I still suspect it’s higher now rather than lower.

Ultimately, price action will be the arbiter but with the US headed for a rate cutting cycle and the economy slowing, there case for buying gold dips is solid.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Signs mount that the Canadian consumer is slowing with jobs report due today
• PBoC: Will guide reasonable credit growth
• Fed’s Collins: It will be appropriate to ease soon if data aligns with expectations
• What to watch out for on the economic calendar next week?
• US futures stick with the bounce from yesterday so far on the session
• Weekly update on interest rates expectations
• Italy July final CPI +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y prelim
• European equities keep slightly higher to start the day
• FX option expiries for 9 August 10am New York cut
• What are the main events for today?
• Japan’s Nikkei salvages a positive close on the day, and just down over 2% on the week
• Germany July final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelim
• Little on the agenda in European morning trade today
• Japan’s Nikkei stumbles in the final stages of trading today
• A calmer mood set to greet European traders later

Markets:

• CHF leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures +0.20%
• US 10-year yields down 4.1 bps
  to 3.951%
• Gold
  up 0.20% to $2,432
• WTI
  crude up 0.30% to $76.42
• Bitcoin
  up 2.01% to $60726

The
European session today was once again uneventful with no fresh economic data or
notable headlines. The risk mood remains positive following yesterday’s US
jobless claims figures, and I don’t see anything that can change it going into
the weekend unless we get some scary headlines from the Middle East.

In the markets, risk assets are faring pretty well with equities and bitcoin being up to on the day. The major pairs are mostly flat and the US Treasuries are up. The notable mover is crude oil which is likely being supported by defensive positioning into the weekend risk as the tensions in the Middle East remain present.

In the American
session, we will get the Canadian labour market report where the consensus
expects the data to show 22.5K jobs added in July vs. -1.4K prior and the
Unemployment Rate to tick higher to 6.5% vs. 6.4% prior.

That’s all folks.
Have a great weekend!

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The highlight on the North American economic calendar today is the Canadian July employment report but it comes amidst sign that consumer spending is slowing down.

RBC is out with its latest consumer spending tracker based on credit card data and Canada’s largest bank saw a 0.6% decline in July.

„Canadian consumers are pulling back this summer after years of pandemic revenge spending,“ RBC writes, nothing that sales have fallen in six of the past seven months.

The report notes that spending on food and drinking establishments was particularly hard hit in July, falling 0.88% in a sign of a belt-tightening consumer. Home-related spending also fell 3.3% as high interest rates bite.

Consumer spending continues to show signs of stress as many wait for the impact of the BoC rate cuts to filter through to mortgage interest costs. Interest rates are still high. Canadians renewing fixed-rate mortgages in 2024 still face significantly higher rates, which will cut into broader purchasing power. However, as the BoC continues its path to lower rates, mortgage holders will feel some relief and at least partially restored purchasing power upon renewal. We expect consumption will remain soft (relative to still-strong population growth) over the second half of the year before picking up in 2025 as the BoC continues to ease monetary policy.

At 8:30 am ET today (1230 GMT), the Canadian jobs report for July is expected to show unemployment ticking up to 6.5% from 6.4%. Job gains of 22.5K are expected after a loss of 1.4K in June.

The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 bps Bank of Canada cut on Sept 4 with a 10% probability of 50 bps. A 25 bps cut is fully priced in at all three remaining meetings this year, which would bring the overnight rate to 3.75%.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.
• Will guide reasonable creditr growth.
• Will lower firms‘ financing and household credit costs steadily.
• Will promote the steady decline in the cost of comprehensive social financing.
• Will maintain fundamental stability of Yuan exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.
• Will implement measures to prevent and resolve risks in key aread such as real estate, local government debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions.
• Will also keep liquidity reasonably ample.
• Will prevent the formation and self-reinforcement of unilateral uniform expectations, guard against risk of exchange rate overshooting.
• Will conduct stress tests on financial institutions‘ bond asset holdings risk exposure and prevent forex risks.
• Will gradually increase the purchase and sale of Treasury bonds in the central bank’s open market operations.
• Will strengthen the authority of policy rates, deliver clearer adjustment target signals of interest rates to market.
• Will strengthen makret expectation guidance and focus on changes in long-term bond yields as economy rebound.
• Will strengthen guidance of market expectations, pay attention to changes in long-term bond yields during economic recovery.
• Will increase construction and supply of affordable housing to meet rigid housing needs of wage earners.
• Will satisfy demand for working-class groups, support various improvements to housing demand for households in rural and urban areas.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• The cautious mood holds so far in European morning trade
• JP Morgan raises probability of US recession by year-end to 35%, up from 25% previously
• Magnitude 7.1 earthquake hits Japan’s southern region, tsunami warnings issued
• AUD/USD holds higher for now, traders watching risk sentiment for the next clue
• European indices marked lower at the open today
• What are the main events for today?
• FX option expiries for 8 August 10am New York cut
• Eurostoxx futures -0.8% in early European trading
• It’s an empty economic calendar in Europe today
• The storm clouds are starting to brew again

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD lags on the day
• European equities lower;
  S&P 500 futures +0.03%
• US 10-year yields down 2.2 bps
  to 3.921%
• Gold
  up 1.30% to $2,412
• WTI
  crude up 0.05% to $75.26
• Bitcoin
  up 4.28% to $57501

The European
session has been uneventful with no economic data or notable headlines. The
market is waiting for the US jobless claims figures as the data might either
lift the risk sentiment or trigger another wave of risk-off flows.

In the markets,
the most notable mover has been the AUD as it rallied during the Asian session
on hawkish comments from RBA’s Governor Bullock. Other than that, there’s nothing
else that catches the eye.

The focus will
now switch to the US jobless claims report. Initial Claims are expected at 240K
vs. 249K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1870K vs. 1877K prior. The distribution
of forecasts is skewed to the downside with most seeing the data coming out in
the 235K-245K range.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The market is still licking its wounds as the price action remains
tentative ahead of the US Jobless Claims today. The ugly US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weak US
NFP report of last week are still fresh in everyone’s mind.

At the moment the market is
expecting the Fed to cut rates by 50 bps in September and a total of 110 bps of
easing by year-end.

In the American session we
will get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Given the market’s sensitivity
to weak releases, if we get bad data, we might see some more risk-off flows coming
into the market. On the other hand, good figures could see the risk sentiment improving.

S&P 500
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the S&P 500 bounced around the swing low level at 5200 but
eventually erased most of the gains as the sentiment remains fragile. This is
where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level
to position for a rally into the 5400 level. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the
5000 level next.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we now have a strong resistance
around the 5366 level where we can also find the 50% Fibonacci
retracement level for confluence.
This has created a range between the 5200 support and the 5366 resistance. The
buyers will look to go long from the support while the sellers will keep on
going short from the resistance.

S&P 500 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the recent catalysts that eventually pushed the market down over 8%. There’s
not much else we can glean from this timeframe as the market participants will
wait for the US jobless claims today before piling in with more conviction. The
red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures which will likely be a
strong market moving release given the market’s focus on the labour market. The
market will also pay close attention to Fed members’ comments with Fed’s Barkin
scheduled to speak later in the day.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% currently. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are down 5.8 bps to 3.909% as traders are staying more vigilant on the session. USD/JPY is down 0.4% to 146.15 but is off session lows of around 145.65, helped by another bounce off its 100-hour moving average.

European indices continue to be weighed down as well with the DAX down 0.7% and CAC 40 down 1.1%. That owes much to a catch up to Wall Street losses yesterday as well. It’s all still to play for on the day though, as markets are moving with a sense of caution. All eyes are on the US weekly initial jobless claims next at 1230 GMT.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.