It’s been a fairly choppy morning in FX so far.

The AUD is the strongest but neck and neck with the Pound for the strongest on the session.

The CHF is the weakest, with the JPY not to far behind it.

Eurozone data this morning has been mixed with GDP data out of France printing worse than expected while inflation printed higher than expected. Eurozone total HICP YY printed in line with expectations, with the ex food and energy measure printed a bit higher than expected (but remained at the prior of 2.8%).

Nothing in today’s data was enough to change market expectations about ECB rate expectations.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• The AUD and NZD continues to lead the majors on the upside
• US sees limited scope for nuclear talks with China
• Equity futures putting in a solid run so far today
• Eurozone economic sentiment 96.6 vs 95.8 expected
• China’s Xi says committed to stable relationship with US based on win-win cooperation
• Rate pricing for the ECB largely unchanged after the German statewide CPI data
• EURUSD trades back below 1.11 after German statewide CPI
• German Bayern YY 2.1% vs 2.5% prior
• Remy Cointreau Pernod Ricard shares surge 8% after China skips brandy tariffs
• China’s Commerce Ministry opts against anti-dumping measures on EU brandy
• Riksbank’s Bunge says economy is in a mild recession
• Spanish flash HICP YY 2.4% vs 2.5% expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• Swedish GDP YY 0.5% vs 0.0% expected
• Ukraine strikes oil and artillery depots in Rostov Kirov and Voronezh regions
• Japan consumer confidence index 36.7 vs 36.7 prior
• Risk sentiment leaning slightly positive head of the cash open
• NZDUSD tests close to 0.63 after earlier NZ data
• Finally a day with a bit more excitement on the calendar

Markets:

• NZD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures up 0.18%
• US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 3.829%
• Gold up 0.75% to $2,522
• WTI
  crude up 0.32% to $74.76
• Bitcoin
  up 1.63% to $60,005

It was a more lively session today with some notable moves in the FX and equity markets. The EUR has been the most notable mover in the FX space as the single currency fell on soft German statewide CPI figures. Note though, that the market’s pricing for ECB rates was unchanged.

In the equity space, we’ve seen the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq erasing most of yesterday’s weakness although the lack of catalysts will likely keep the price action rangebound until next week.

Overall though, there wasn’t any notable news release or development in the macro or geopolitical space and we keep waiting for next week where we will get many top-tier economic data including the NFP report.

The attention will now switch to the US jobless claims figures where we will likely need initial claims to spike above the 260K level to trigger a big market reaction.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The NZD and AUD continues to be the best performers so far today.

For the NZD the upside was sparked by the solid jump in the ANZ Business Outlook which printed at the highest since 2014. For the AUD the strength looks more driven by overall risk sentiment with the upside in equities likely offering some support.

In terms of the underperformers, the EUR was pressured following a decent deceleration in German statewide CPI data, with 5 of the 6 states printing new cycle lows for CPI.

Looking ahead attention will turn to US data with the release of Q2 GDP 2nd estimate as well as the weekly jobless claims data.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

• Exclusive-U.S. sees a ‚limited opportunity‘ to restart nuclear policy dialogue with China -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-U.S. seeks arms talks with China focused on nuclear doctrine, strategic warning, risk reduction -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-Asked about missile deployment, U.S. official says any decision to deploy new capabilities to support Philippines will be informed by actions they see from China.
• Exclusive-U.S. officials have privately told China that interference in U.S. elections ‚would be intolerable‘ -U.S. official.
• Exclusive-On China tariffs, U.S. official says they expect to ‚follow through on our intentions‘

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Every day, it feels like we are sinking deeper into an
Orwellian dystopia. Even progressive democracies are starting to impose more
and more restrictions, especially on what can be said or written.

Ten years ago, the news that someone would be jailed for a
comment would have been bizarre. This is an unfortunate reality today, not
somewhere in a dictatorship but in the middle of Europe.

The latest developments go even further: earlier this week,
France detained
Telegram founder Pavel Durov in connection with
allegations related to terrorism or arms trafficking.

Immediately, freedom advocates, or so-called libertarians,
including Edward Snowden, called for Durov’s release. But it appears that some
are acting beyond speaking out.

Reports indicate that hackers have carried out DDoS attacks
on several French government websites, including those for government services
and the Medicines Safety Agency.

Even if it was a coincidence, it highlights a growing
trend: cyberattacks are also going to grow due to geopolitical tensions, and
not necessarily direct ones, such as between
Israel and Hezbollah.

Wars and rivalries are no longer confined to physical
battlefields; they are also fought online. This is why important countries now
have specialized cyber units, just like air forces.

Where do we stand now?

There is no need to start stocking up on tinfoil hats just
yet. Instead, it would be a good idea to add cybersecurity stocks to your watch
list, such as Palo Alto, Fortinet, and Check Point.

Given the current landscape, it’s no surprise that these
stocks are up more than 20% each since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500 and
Nasdaq.

As for whether it’s too late to jump on board, the answer
is it depends. For instance, Cisco Systems and Check Point look more attractive
than Palo Alto and Fortinet when you consider their P/E ratios.

Overall, spending on security still makes up less than 10%
of overall IT budgets despite the high risks of a breach. With Generative AI
expanding the ways cybercriminals can scale their attacks.

The demand for cybersecurity services is expected to
continue growing in the near future. With no one willing to skimp on security,
some companies will likely see significant profit opportunities.

It is worth researching which companies could benefit the
most by researching their products, prospects, and customer base. Otherwise,
there are ETFs focused on cybersecurity companies.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

This week has been pretty
boring all around as the lack of catalysts kept the price action confined in a
tight range. The market is waiting for the key economic releases next week as
we will get the ISM PMIs and lots of US labour market data including the NFP
report.

As a reminder, the Fed is
now very focused on the labour market as Fed Chair Powell said that they will
not welcome any more weakness and will do everything they can to keep it
strong. Therefore, the data will decide whether the central bank will go with a
standard 25 bps cut in September or take a more aggressive approach with a 50
bps cut.

In today’s context though,
weaker labour market data and the prospect of a 50 bps cut might not be enough
to lift the stock market and could actually lead to more downside on
recessionary fears, so that’s something to keep in mind.

Russell 2000
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that after the spike higher on the dovish Powell’s speech, the Russell 2000
this week has been pulling back on the lack of more catalysts. Nonetheless, the
trend is still skewed to the upside, so the momentum buyers keep on stepping in
around key levels on the lower timeframes. The sellers will need to see the
price breaking below the 2100 level to start targeting new lows and switch the
bias from bullish to bearish.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a strong support zone around the 2185 level where we had also
the confluence
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and the trendline.
The buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a
rally into a new cycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see
the price breaking below the trendline to position for a drop into the 2100
level next.

Russell 2000 Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we got a break of the downward counter-trendline today. The buyers
will likely increase the bullish bets around these levels to position for a
rally into a new high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to wait for
the price to break below the upward trendline before positioning into more
downside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude
the week with the US PCE report.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The final countdown to iFX EXPO Asia 2024 is officially in full swing
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Where deals are sealed

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topics such as:

●
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●
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●
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●
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Make connections in a relaxed
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Unlock discounted
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Menu” at Ventisi

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Book your pass! Limited
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This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

• Japan’s Trade Ministry eyes 2.3596 trillion yen for FY2025/26 budget
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 23 August 0.5% vs -10.1% prior
• Wang Yi urges US to treat China as equal and halt suppression in trade and tech
• JP Morgan joins other banks looking for more USD downside
• WTI gives up all the Libya gains and trades below $75
• Knowing election results in advance doesn’t give an investing edge
• Israeli US Egyptian Qatari negotiators meet in Doha for Gaza ceasefire talks
• Swiss investor sentiment -3.4 vs 9.4 prior
• Eurozone Money M3 annual growth 2.3 vs 2.7% expected
• What to expect from Nvidia’s report?
• Citi predicts zinc to reach $3100/t by 4Q with aluminium also set for gains
• Libya’s Sarir oil field nears shutdown as production is halted
• French consumer confidence 92 vs 92 expected
• What are the main events for today?
• Today’s FX option expiry levels for the NY cut
• Swedish trade balance 6.5B vs 8.7B prior
• BoJ Himino says there is no set timeframe for economic stability
• Sentiment mostly mixed across major asset classes
• Consumer confidence data shows further cooling in the labour market
• Interesting reaction in the AUD to today’s CPI data
• With Aussie CPI out of the way the calendar ahead is another quiet one

Markets:

• USD leads, EUR lags on the day
• European equities higher;
  S&P 500 futures flat
• US 10-year yields down 2 bps to
  3.806%
• Gold
  down 0.77% to $2,505
• WTI
  crude down 1.97% to $74.04
• Bitcoin
  up 1.03% to $60,047

It was yet another
quiet session with no market moving data. There wasn’t even any notable news
release. It was hard not to fall asleep.

In the
markets, there’s been very little movement. The only notable mover has been
crude oil as it extended the drop below the Monday’s spike level on Libyan oil
production halt news.

Looking
ahead, we just have Nvidia reporting earnings after the close.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Trade Ministry is set to ask for 2.3596 trillion yen in its preliminary budget request for FY2025/26, according to Jiji.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

US MBA mortgage applications: 0.5% vs -10.1% prior

US MBA mortgage market index: 226.9 vs 225.8 prior

US MBA purchase index: 131.8 vs 130.6 prior

US MBA refinancing index: 753.8 vs 754.4 prior

US MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 6.44% vs 6.50% prior

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.