• Prior was 93.7

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November
to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98.
This is the highest reading since June 2021. Of the 10 Optimism Index
components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged.
Following last month’s record high of 110, the Uncertainty Index
declined 12 points in November to 98.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg: “The election results signal a major shift in economic policy,
leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street
also became more certain about future business conditions following the
election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high
uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation
policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from
inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to
expand their operations.”

This is a huge jump and just another sign that the US economy is picking up steam. The inflation risk and Fed’s policy will be the main focus in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity
currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing
of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out
the remaining rate cuts for 2025.

In fact, despite lots of
strong US data, the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around three
rate cuts by the end of 2025. The focus is now on the US CPI report due
tomorrow. It looks like the Fed really wants to cut next week before pausing for
some months. So, we might need an upside surprise in the core inflation numbers
to force them to change plans.

Even if the Fed decides to
cut next week despite a hot CPI, the market will likely scale back further the
rate cuts expectations for 2025 and that could trigger some risk aversion with
the US Dollar rallying across the board. The best scenario would be a soft
report given the overstretched long positions in the greenback. In such a case,
we can expect the US Dollar to selloff across the board.

On the CAD side, the BoC this
week is expected to cut interest rates by 50 bps bringing the policy rate to
3.25%. The market’s expectations kept on swinging back and forth between 25 and
50 bps in the past weeks as we got a higher than expected CPI report that strengthened the probabilities
for a 25 bps cut, but then a weaker than expected GDP report brought back the chances to
basically a 50-50 scenario. The soft labour market
report on Friday
though sealed the case for a 50 bps cut.

USDCAD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCAD rallied back to the highs as the market increased the chances for
a 50 bps cut for the BoC following the latest Canadian employment report. From
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the trendline.
The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to
position for a pullback into the trendline.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice support zone around the 1.41 handle. If the price were
to pull back into it, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
trendline.

USDCAD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum.
The buyers will likely lean on it to keep targeting new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 1.41
support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US CPI report and the BoC rate decision. On Thursday, we get
the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The pair might be trading a little higher today, up 0.2% to 151.50 but it’s not really saying all too much. Looking at the chart above, the most recent bounce comes amid a defense of the 100-day moving average (red line). And since then, buyers have slowly gathered more conviction but nothing outstanding as of yet. The key upside level to watch now is the 200-day moving average (blue line), seen at 151.97 currently.

Put together, they outline more of a ping pong range for the pair. The bond market is also seeing some offers this week, so that is helping with the slight bounce. 10-year Treasury yields are up to 4.21% now, with the low last week touching 4.12%. But again, it’s not anything too striking.

All else being equal, traders will be looking to the US CPI report tomorrow to potentially settle the score. That being said, there is a case where we might not learn much from the inflation data.

The odds of a Fed rate cut next week are at ~85% now and barring any major surprises, Powell & co. are likely to deliver one final cut before pausing early next year.

The bigger question will be how much of any stickier price pressures from the latest report here will translate to the outlook for next year. The consideration will have to be alongside Trump tariffs as well, so there’s that.

But in the more immediate term i.e. for next week, it shouldn’t likely change the outcome for the Fed. But we’ll see how the market reacts. It wouldn’t be the first time the Fed gets bullied into a decision one week before a FOMC meeting.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The US Dollar continues to
consolidate around the highs although it’s stronger against the commodity
currencies. In the bigger picture, the market reached the peak in the repricing
of interest rates expectations, and it will need stronger reasons to price out
the remaining rate cuts for 2025.

In fact, despite lots of
strong US data, the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around three
rate cuts by the end of 2025. The focus is now on the US CPI report due
tomorrow. It looks like the Fed really wants to cut next week before pausing
for some months. So, we might need an upside surprise in the core inflation
numbers to force them to change plans.

Even if the Fed decides to
cut next week despite a hot CPI, the market will likely scale back further the
rate cuts expectations for 2025 and that could trigger some risk aversion with
the US Dollar rallying across the board. The best scenario would be a soft
report given the overstretched long positions in the greenback. In such a case,
we can expect the US Dollar to selloff across the board.

On the CHF side, the market
is pricing in a 63% probability of a 50 bps cut for the SNB this week.
Inflation has been much lower than the central bank’s forecasts and the
strength in the Swiss Franc didn’t help either.

The new SNB’s Chairman
Schlegel seems more resolute than his predecessor as he flagged
negative rates if
needed to dampen the appetite for the safe-haven franc, so the central bank
might go for a 50 bps cut this time around.

USDCHF
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDCHF broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish
momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the sellers to pile in around these
levels to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to target new highs.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong support
turned resistance around the 0.88 handle with a downward trendline defining
the bearish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the sellers to step in
both at the resistance and the trendline in case the resistance gets breached.
The buyers, on the other hand, will pile in at every break higher.

USDCHF Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the consolidation below the resistance. The sellers will
continue to step in here to target a drop into new lows, while the buyers will
look for a break higher for a rally into the trendline. The red lines define the
average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Tomorrow we get the US CPI report, which is also going to be the main event of
the week. On Thursday, we have the SNB rate decision, the US Jobless Claims and
the US PPI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The news here yesterday came after the domestic session closed but the Hang Seng index managed to capitalise and rallied to produce over 2% gains. The optimism was largely expected to carry over to today but the mood music hasn’t quite turned out that way. That despite domestic indices closing higher today. It doesn’t tell the whole story.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices closed up by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. However, they closed at the lows for the day with the latter falling back under 4,000 and returning to the post-October range. As for the Hang Seng, it opened with a gap up of over 3% but closed the day with a loss of 0.5%. Ouch.

As the dust begins to settle from the latest announcement by Beijing, investors are still holding reservations. Personally, I don’t doubt China’s commitment and ability to deliver on the monetary policy front. They’ve already stepped it up this year and one can reasonably expect that to continue next year. The change in policy stance is just a bonus to reinforce that sentiment.

The only thing I doubt is China’s ability to deliver on the fiscal side of things. They’ve been saying that they will do more for over two years now. And yet every time when Beijing should be making a strong commitment, they tend to flake. Just like they did back here in November in the most recent time.

If Beijing wants to reaffirm the faith of investors, they will have to deliver something at some point next year. Otherwise, the latest uptick in sentiment since October might end up falling away rather quickly. That especially with Chinese economic data still not being it towards the end of this year.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental
Overview

The Chinese Politburo announced that it will adopt a
“moderately loose” strategy for monetary policy for 2025, which marked the
first major shift in stance since 2011.

Moreover, the language around fiscal policy was stepped up to “more
proactive” from just “proactive” in another sign that Chinese officials intend
to ease policies more forcefully to prop up the economy.

The market will now expect big rate cuts and asset buying, which should
support the copper market going forward. Copper is generally tightly correlated to the Chinese stock
market which shows the strong dependence of the commodity to the Chinese
economy.

That should not be
surprising given that China is responsible for more than 60% of global copper
demand. Overall, the picture is more bullish than bearish for the copper market
with global monetary easing likely leading to positive global growth
expectations.

The US ISM Manufacturing
PMI recently showed the New Orders index, which is a proxy for demand, rising
for the third consecutive month. The index has also jumped into expansion for
the first time since March. So, the stars seem to be aligning for a nice 2025.

Copper
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that copper is pulling back after bottoming out around the 4.10 level. The
price is getting closer to the downward trendline which is defining the bearish
momentum on this timeframe. We can see that we have also a strong resistance
around the 4.31 level for confluence.

That’s where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for
a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4.70 level next.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we had a very choppy price action in the past few weeks as the market has
been waiting for a catalyst to pick a direction. Today’s catalyst should push
the price into the major trendline and most likely provide an upside breakout.

If the price were to pull
back, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 4.18 level to position for
the break above the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a
break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Copper Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly today’s rally on the Chinese news. The price made a new high
and it’s now consolidating between the 4.26 level and the top of today’s average daily range.

We can expect the buyers to
pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the 4.26 support to
position for the break above the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price falling back below the 4.26 level to target a
pullback into the 4.18 support next.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is going to be more tranquil on the data front. On Wednesday, we have
the US CPI report which is also going to be the main event of the week. On
Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Pepeto has captured the crypto community’s attention with
its compelling story and utility. Currently priced at just $0.000000096, Pepeto
offers an affordable entry point, with five days left in its current presale
stage. Pepeto has also teased major upcoming announcements, further fueling
speculation and interest. Its combination of narrative-driven appeal, advanced
utilities like a cross-chain bridge and zero-fee exchange, and a rapidly
growing community can make it a noticeable opportunity in the memecoin
space.

Pepeto: Community and Adoption for the Memecoin Era

Pepeto has made a wave of excitement across the crypto
space, driven by its captivating story tied to the six documents—P, E, P, E, T,
and O—that define its vision. This narrative has rallied a vibrant and growing
community, as evident across its active social media platforms. Pepeto’s
adoption utility stands out, positioning it as a possible exchange for the next
generation of frog-themed and memecoin projects. By offering a seamless
platform for trading, bridging, and listing, Pepeto aims to empower the wave of
innovative frog-inspired tokens.

Pepe Unchained: Scaling Memecoins with Layer 2 and
Upcoming Listings

Pepe Unchained brings a focus on Layer 2 technology,
offering enhanced scalability and efficiency for blockchain transactions. This
technical foundation positions the project to support higher transaction
volumes and smoother operations, especially during peak market activity. With
its presale now completed, Pepe Unchained is building momentum as it prepares
for its official listing in less than four days. This milestone marks an
important step in delivering value to both its community and the broader memecoin
ecosystem.

Two Major Announcements Pending

Pepeto has hinted at two significant announcements on the
horizon. These announcements are hinted to include a potential exchange listing
and the beta version launch of PepetoSwap, the project’s core utility.

By adhering to its roadmap, Pepeto works to continue to
build trust and excitement within its growing community. The upgraded platform
will soon serve as the foundation for the bridge and exchange functionalities,
offering a vital resource for the next generation of blockchain
projects.

Pepeto Nears $2 Million Milestone in Presale

Pepeto’s presale is rapidly approaching the $2 million mark.
This achievement can highlight the community’s confidence in Pepeto’s vision
and utility, which includes its advanced bridge, zero-fee exchange, and staking
rewards. With its low presale price and an ecosystem designed to support the
next generation of memecoins, Pepeto aims to become a standout project in the
lead-up to the 2025.

Pepeto: Building Momentum for the Future of Memecoins

Pepeto’s steady progress reflects its commitment to
delivering value and innovation to its community. From unveiling the
anticipated PepetoSwap to upgrading its official website, every step
underscores the team’s focus on creating meaningful utilities. With the beta
launch of its bridge and exchange on the horizon and major announcements
fueling excitement, Pepeto is positioning itself as a key player in the crypto
space, paving the way for widespread adoption and collaborative growth in the
memecoin ecosystem.

About Pepeto

Pepeto is a memecoin project designed to integrate
cross-chain utility with community-driven development. Offering zero-fee
trading, blockchain bridge functionality, and a staking rewards program, Pepeto
seeks to combine accessibility with practical features. The project emphasizes
interoperability and long-term value, fostering a dedicated user base through
its ecosystem innovations and community-focused approach.

Disclaimer:

The official website for Pepeto is https://pepeto.io/. Be
cautious of fraudulent websites. To learn more about Pepeto’s progress and
upcoming features, users can visit the official website and Pepeto official
socials.

This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

It’s been a surging run up for the pair, gaining 0.9% from around 0.6385 before the headlines to 0.6447 currently. That comes after testing levels under 0.6400, which were the lowest since August. The nudge higher today now sees buyers recover back some near-term control as well. That as price action climbs above its 100-hour moving average (red line) of 0.6435.

The bounce in European trading owes to a kneejerk reaction to the China announcement here. The question now though is can all of this last?

China pledging a bigger commitment to easing monetary policy further next year is very encouraging. But without any concrete plans on the fiscal side, is this just another short-term boost? That is something to consider amid the latest bounce.

AUD/USD will now face up against further near-term resistance from the 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 0.6464.

In the bigger picture though, the bounce today mainly just erases the Friday drop. And it is a bounce of the lows from around April and August, with the former seen around the region of 0.6362 to 0.6389. The latter is seen at 0.6347 and remains another critical support point. All of that remains in contention despite the bounce here, unless buyers can turn this into something more this week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

🚀 Bitcoin Price Prediction: Key Levels and Strategies for This Week

Hello, crypto traders and investors! 👋 If you’ve opened the charts this week, you’ve probably noticed a sea of red across the crypto market:

• BTC: Down 2.5%
• ETH: Down 3.5%
• BNB: Over 4% down
• DOGE: A significant 7.5% dip (Elon’s favorite is struggling a bit)
• SHIBA: Nearing a 7% drop

But don’t panic just yet—this could be a classic market setup. The expectation is that we’ll be dancing around $100K, with market makers liquidating both bulls and bears near this key psychological level. Let’s dive into the key Bitcoin levels to watch and what they mean for your trading strategy.

🏗️ Current Bitcoin Price Levels and the Range to Watch

Bitcoin Futures are currently sitting at $99,185. It’s crucial to ensure you’re analyzing the same data when referencing these price levels. Here’s a breakdown of the key zones to monitor:

1. The Bounce Zone (First Key Area):

• Buy Area: $97,750 to $98,850
• Critical Bounce Point: $97,375

👉 Why it matters: If Bitcoin doesn’t hold this zone, we could see the price sliding further into some critical naked levels (explained below).

2. The Value Area Low (VAL):

• Range: $95,400 to $96,000

👉 Why it matters: The Value Area is where 68-70% of trading activity occurs during a session—a place where buyers and sellers historically find agreement. If BTC falls to this range, it’s a key decision point for the next move.

3. VWAP Support:

• VWAP Level: Around $94,000

👉 Why it matters: The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) often acts as a dynamic support level. If BTC bounces here, it’s a strong signal of renewed buying interest.

4. Bears’ Confidence Zone:

• Trigger Level: $91,500

👉 Why it matters: A break below $91,500, particularly if confirmed by two consecutive daily closes, could trigger stop orders and fuel a sharper decline. This level marks the Value Area Low of November 26th, making it pivotal for bearish momentum.

🎯 Bitcoin Trading Strategy: Long or Short?

If you’re wondering whether to go long or short, here’s a simple roadmap:

Long Entry Ideas:

1. First Lead: Look for a bounce at $97,750, with a tight stop near $97,375.
2. Second Lead: If $97K fails, wait for the $95,400 to $95,500 zone to enter a position.
3. Third Lead: The VWAP around $94,000 could be the last stop before a significant move higher. Be cautious of piercing this level and set stops accordingly.

Long Exit Targets:

• POC of December 5th: $104,500
• Value Area High (VAH): $104,790

💡 Tip: At these levels, sellers are likely to step in, so don’t expect a sustained breakout above this range on the first or second attempt.

Bearish Scenario:

If Bitcoin falls below $91,500 with consecutive daily closes, watch for:

• Stops to trigger, accelerating a downward move.
• Next potential target: Around $91,000.

🛠️ Final Thoughts on Bitcoin for this Week: Range-Bound For Now, With A Possible Leg Down in the Range, But Still Bullish Long-Term… Make Sure You See the BTCUSD Price Predicton With Levels to Watch in the Video Above

Bitcoin may not be looking bearish in the long term, but in the short term, it’s range-bound. The key is to respect the internal levels within this range:

• Upside Range: $97,750 to $104,790
• Downside Range: $91,500 to $94,000

Use tight stops when trading within these levels and focus on price reactions to inform your next move. The market is ripe with opportunities, but remember: Bitcoin trading comes with risks—always trade responsibly.

For more insights and perspectives, visit ForexLive.com or stay tuned here for updates. Good luck out there, traders! 🚀

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior -12.8

That’s the weakest reading since November 2023 and it highlights the pessimistic outlook towards the euro area economy to wrap up the year and also towards next year. With political uncertainty rising and Trump tariffs on the horizon, it’s not a good look for the Eurozone ahead of what will be a very challenging 2025.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.